"Where there is no vision, the people perish: but he that keepeth the law, happy is he."
-- Proverbs 29:18, King James Bible (KJV)

Tuesday, January 14, 2020

SportPundit FBS Final College Football Rankings 2019/2020 Season After Bowls and Playoffs

SportPundit FBS Final College Football Rankings 2019/2020 Season After Bowls and Playoffs

YPP stats from cfbstats.com 
Schedule Difficulty (SD) is based on the Massey Ratings
-- but in many cases we have adjusted them and marked those by an asterisk *
(* = adjusted).
Schedule Difficulty stats are rough approximations - just compare the ColleyMatrix to see how much they can diverge.
NAYPPA = Net Average Yards Per Play Advantage - Calculation by SportPundit.
AYPP = Adjusted Yards Per Play. The "calculation of rank" is made by us in taking NAYPPA minus the "calibration adjustment for schedule difficulty" = CSD (3 x SD divided by 100). We do all calculations in our head, which can be done swiftly, but there may be error as a result of doing things too fast, so we make no guarantees as to accuracy.
The system is not perfect! But it can give a good idea of the relative strengths of many of the teams without looking at the margin of victory or won-loss records against varied opposition and under various circumstances. Some placements are curious, but on the whole, the rankings can be quite useful.

SportPundit NCAA Division I FBS College Football Rankings 2019 after Bowls and Playoffs (rank is determined by AYPP, the adjusted yards per play rating).

Rank Team Ypp Off Ypp Def NAYPPA    SD   CSD  AYPP W-L
1 LSU 7.89 5.11 +2.78    1 -0.00 +2.78 15-0
2 Clemson 7.38 4.46 +2.92    7 -0.51 +2.71 14-1
3 Ohio State 6.94 4.13 +2.81    *3 -0.09 +2.71 13-1
4 Alabama 7.89 4.81 +3.07   12 -0.36 +2.71 11-2
5 Oklahoma 7.96 5.63 +2.33    9 -0.27 +2.06 12-2
6 Georgia 6.08 4.29 +1.79    6 -0.18 +1.55 12-2
7 Florida 6.47 4.90 +1.57  15 -0.45 +1.12 11-2
8 Oregon 6.34 4.73 +1.61    19 -0.57 +1.04 12-2
9 Wisconsin 6.30 4.79 +1.51    *16 -0.48 +1.03 10-4
10 Michigan 5.77 4.72 +1.05    4 -0.12 +0.93 9-4
11 Notre Dame 6.30 4.67 +1.63    25 -0.75 +0.88 11-2
12 Penn State 6.05 4.82 +1.23    14 -0.42 +0.81 11-2
13 Auburn 5.58 4.84 +0.74      2 -0.03 +0.71 9-4
14 Baylor 6.22 4.89 +1.33  23 -0.69 +0.64 11-3
15 Iowa 5.52 4.80 +0.72    *10 -0.30 +0.42 10-3
Rank Team Ypp Off Ypp Def NAYPPA    SD   CSD  AYPP W-L
16 Minnesota 6.36 5.06 +1.30     *30 -0.90 +0.40 11-2
17 USC 6.52 5.70 +0.82 17 -0.51 +0.31 8-5
18 Texas A&M 5.82 5.25 +0.57      11 -0.33 +0.24 8-5
19 Texas 6.37 6.11  +0.26      *3 -0.09 +0.17 8-5
20 Utah 6.59 4.64 +1.95    *60 -1.80 +0.15 11-3
21 Oklahoma St. 6.39 5.79 +0.60    *15 -0.45 +0.15 8-5
22 Iowa State 6.45 5.36 +1.09  *35 -1.05 +0.04 7-6
23 Memphis 6.85 5.37 +1.48     *50 -1.50 -0.02 12-2
24 Cincinnati 5.55 5.21 +0.34    *15 -0.45 -0.11 11-3
25 UCF 6.92 4.57 +2.35    *85 -2.55 -0.20 10-3
26 Washington 5.83 5.11 +0.72   33 -0.97 -0.27 8-5
27 Navy 6.76 5.26 +1.50     *60 -1.80 -0.30 11-2
28 TCU 5.51 5.37 +0.14     *19 -0.57 -0.43 5-7
29 Tennessee 5.82 5.04 +0.78     41 -1.23 -0.45 8-5
30 Appalachian St. 6.26 5.01 +1.25   *57 -1.71 -0.46 13-1
Rank Team Ypp Off Ypp Def NAYPPA    SD   CSD  AYPP W-L
31 North Carolina 6.43 5.43  +1.00      *50 -1.50 -0.50 7-6
32 Michigan State 5.19 4.96 +0.23      *25 -0.75 -0.52 7-6
33 Boise State 6.05 5.22 +0.83  *45 -1.35 -0.52 12-2
34 Kansas State 5.55 6.17  -0.62     **0 -0.00 -0.62 8-5
35 South Carolina 5.18 5.53 -0.35      10 -0.30 -0.65 4-8
36 Arizona State 5.74 5.51 +0.23  *30 -0.90 -0.67 8-5
37 Mississippi State 6.16 6.30  -0.14     *18 -0.54 -0.68 6-7
38 Mississippi 6.00 5.82 +0.18   *29 -0.87 -0.69 4-8
39 Louisiana-Laf. 7.01 5.45 +1.56 *75 -2.25 -0.69 11-3
40 Indiana 6.08 5.36 +0.72     50 -1.47 -0.75 8-5
41 Nebraska 5.76 5.61 +0.15   *30 -0.90 -0.75 5-7
42 Kentucky 6.17 5.21  +0.96   57 -1.71 -0.75 8-5
43 Air Force 6.22 5.53 +0.69     *50 -1.50 -0.81 11-2
44 Virginia 5.66 5.75 -0.09     *25 -0.75 -0.84 9-5
45 Washington St. 7.14 6.64 +0.50     45 -1.35 -0.85 6-7
Rank Team Ypp Off Ypp Def NAYPPA    SD   CSD  AYPP W-L
46 SMU 6.14 5.76 +0.38   *45 -1.35 -0.97 10-3
47 Virginia Tech 5.65 5.20 +0.45   *50 -1.50 -1.05 8-5
48 Pittsburgh 5.18 4.50 +0.68    *60 -1.80 -1.12 8-5
49 Tulane 6.16 5.49 +0.67    *60 -1.80 -1.13 7-6
50 Missouri 5.27 4.86 +0.41    52 -1.56 -1.15 6-6
51 Florida State 5.84 5.31 +0.53   56 -1.68 -1.15 6-7
52 Louisville 6.68 6.33 +0.35     *50 -1.50 -1.15 8-5
53 Miami of Florida 5.66 4.74 +0.92     70 -2.10 -1.18 6-7
54 Oregon State 5.95 6.05  -0.10     *36 -1.08 -1.18 5-7
55 California 5.08 5.37  -0.29     *30 -0.90 -1.19 8-5
56 West Virginia 4.90 5.48  -0.58     21 -0.63 -1.21 5-7
57 Kansas 5.86 6.15 -0.29     31 -0.93 -1.22 3-9
58 Arizona 6.05 6.36 -0.31     *35 -1.05 -1.36 4-8
59 Temple 5.36 4.93 +0.43   *60 -1.80 -1.37 8-5
60 UCLA 5.31 6.71  -1.40       *1 -0.00 -1.40 4-8
Rank Team Ypp Off Ypp Def NAYPPA    SD   CSD  AYPP W-L
61 Hawaii 6.69 6.29 +0.40     *60 -1.80 -1.40 9-5
62 San Diego State 4.78 4.65 -0.13   *52 -1.56 -1.43 10-3
63 BYU 6.18 5.60  +0.58     68 -2.04 -1.46 7-6
64 Stanford 5.59 6.30  -0.71       25  -0.75 -1.46 4-8
65 Texas Tech 6.09 6.59 -0.50     32 -0.96 -1.46 4-8
66 Illinois 5.00 5.60  -0.60   *30 -0.90 -1.50 6-7
67 Tulsa 5.32 5.67  -0.35   39 -1.17 -1.52 4-8
68 Utah State 5.81 5.64 +0.17     *60 -1.80 -1.63 7-6
69 Colorado 5.50 6.51  -1.01     21 -0.63 -1.64 5-7
70 Wyoming 5.49 5.03 +0.46     *70 -2.10 -1.64 8-5
71 Purdue 5.47 6.02  -0.55     37 -1.11 -1.66 4-8
72 Marshall 5.77 5.54 +0.23   *70 -2.10 -1.87 8-5
73 Florida Atlantic 5.94 5.38  +0.56   *82 -2.46 -1.90 10-3
74 Maryland 5.37 5.95 -0.48     48 -1.44 -1.92 3-9
75 Wake Forest 5.72 5.78 -0.06   65 -1.95 -2.01 8-5
Rank Team Ypp Off Ypp Def NAYPPA    SD   CSD  AYPP W-L
76 Boston College 5.91 6.46  -0.55   *49 -1.47 -2.02 6-7
77 Northwestern 4.23 5.06  -0.83     40 -1.20 -2.03 3-9
78 Fresno State 6.04 5.73 +0.31     78 -2.34 -2.03 4-8
79 Syracuse 5.21 6.07  -0.86   *40 -1.20 -2.06 5-7
80 Western Kentucky 5.60 5.22 +0.38   *83 -2.49 -2.11 9-4
81 Colorado St. 6.24 5.58 +0.66 94 -2.82 -2.164-8
82 Georgia Tech 4.79 5.83  -1.04   *40 -1.20 -2.24 3-9
83 UAB 5.50 4.71 +0.79   *101 -3.03 -2.24 9-5
84 Central Michigan 6.08 5.42 +0.66 *97 -2.91 -2.25 8-6
85 Houston 6.02 6.81  -0.79     50 -1.50 -2.29 4-8
86 San Jose State 6.36 5.80 +0.56   *95 -2.85 -2.29 5-7
87 Louisiana Tech 6.09 5.22 +0.77   *102 -3.06 -2.29 10-3
88 South Florida 5.14 5.39 -0.25 69 -2.07 -2.32 4-8
89 Duke 4.53 5.35 -0.82     51 -1.53 -2.35 5-7
90 Southern Miss 6.07 5.71 +0.36     *93 -2.79 -2.43 7-6
Rank Team Ypp Off Ypp Def NAYPPA    SD   CSD  AYPP W-L
91 Liberty 6.44 5.74 +0.70   *105 -3.15 -2.45 8-5
92 Arkansas State 6.17 6.11  +0.06     *85 -2.55 -2.49 8-5
93 Arkansas 5.21 6.54 -1.33     *39 -1.17 -2.50 2-10
94 Georgia Southern 5.19 5.66  -0.47   *70 -2.10 -2.57 7-6
95 NC State 5.18 5.59 -0.41     *75 -2.25 -2.66 4-8
96 Miami of Ohio 4.97 5.27  -0.30     *79 -2.37 -2.67 8-6
97 Ohio 6.68 5.95  +0.73   *114 -3.42 -2.69 7-6
98 Vanderbilt 4.78 6.57  -1.79   *30 -0.90 -2.69 3-9
99 Buffalo 5.39 4.87 +0.52   *107 -3.21 -2.69 8-5
100 Kent State 5.83 6.32  -0.49   *73 -2.19 -2.70 7-6
 101 Western Michigan 6.33 5.85 +0.48     *106 -3.18 -2.70 7-6
102 Charlotte 6.31 6.01 +0.30   *100 -3.00 -2.70 7-6
103 Ball State 6.11 5.82 +0.29   *101 -3.03 -2.74 5-7
104 Louisiana Monroe 6.37 6.71  -0.34     *80 -2.40 -2.74 5-7
105 Florida Int'l FIU 5.59 5.66  -0.07   *90 -2.70 -2.77 6-7
Rank Team Ypp Off Ypp Def NAYPPA    SD   CSD  AYPP W-L
106 Eastern Michigan 5.97 6.07  -0.10   *90 -2.70 -2.80 6-7
107 Middle Tennessee 6.36 6.21  +0.15     *101 -3.00 -2.85 4-8
108 Georgia State 5.85 6.64  -0.79   *70 -2.10 -2.89 7-6
109 Nevada 5.02 6.07  -1.05   *60 -1.80 -2.95 7-6
110 Northern Illinois 5.22 6.08  -0.86     *70 -2.10 -2.96 5-7
111 Toledo 6.09 6.62 -0.53   *80 -2.40 -2.976-6
112 North Texas 5.92 5.73 +0.19   *110 -3.30 -3.11 4-8
113 Troy 6.13 6.20  -0.07   105 -3.15 -3.22 5-7
114 Coastal Carolina 5.53 6.05 -0.52   *90 -2.70 -3.22 5-7
115 Army 5.86 5.53  +0.33 *120 -3.60 -3.27 5-7
116 Texas State 4.97 5.72  -0.75   90 -2.70 -3.45 3-9
117 East Carolina 5.74 6.52  -0.78 *90 -2.70 -3.48 4-8
118 UNLV 5.41 6.26  -0.85     90 -2.70 -3.55 4-8
119 Rutgers 4.46 6.22  -1.76     61 -1.83 -3.64 2-10
120 South Alabama 5.01 5.77  -0.76   *100 -3.00 -3.76 2-10
Rank Team Ypp Off Ypp Def NAYPPA    SD   CSD  AYPP W-L
121 UTSA 5.05 6.53  -1.48   *80 -2.40 -3.88 4-8
122 New Mexico 5.77 6.71  -0.94 *98 -2.94 -3.88 2-10
123 Rice 4.69 5.97  -1.28     *90 -2.70 -3.98 3-9
124 New Mexico State 5.21 6.58  -1.37     *100 -3.00 -4.37 2-10
125 Bowling Green 4.56 7.03  -2.47   *80 -2.40 -4.87 3-9
126 Connecticut 5.11 7.00  -1.89   *100 -3.15 -4.89 2-10
127 Old Dominion 4.06 5.66  -1.60 *110 -3.30 -4.90 1-11
128 UTEP 5.14 6.76  -1.62 *110 -3.30 -4.92 1-11
129 Massachusetts 4.28 7.77  -3.49   *120 -3.60 -4.99 1-11
130 Akron 4.02 5.70  -1.68 *111 -3.33 -4.99 0-12
Rank Team Ypp Off Ypp Def NAYPPA    SD   CSD  AYPP W-L


SportPundit College Football Prediction Results for Bowl Games and Playoffs 2019-2020

College Football FBS Prediction Results for Bowl Games and Playoffs 2019-2020
and Cumulative Season Result

For the "Bowl Games" of the 2019 FBS college football season we finished:
30-12 in calling the winner
20-21-1 against the spread, and
17-25 against the over/under


so that our cumulative 2019/2020 FBS football season stats were as follows:

667-220 in calling the winner (75+%)
444-427-16 against the spread, and
433-432-11 against the over/under ("total").


Those are pretty good numbers considering that our main prediction parameters are merely yards per play stats and schedule difficulty rank. The results could be improved by not taking schedule difficulty "rank" but rather by calculating the average rank of the teams played, which would be a better figure for comparison and quantification.

If possible, we compete against the quoted opening odds ("the line", "the spread") as available online (e.g. Vegas Insider, OddsShark, Sportsline, The Action Network, 5Dimes, CFPT), and which can vary, so we have no fixed system of which portals we use. We do our predictions for fun and we are not affiliated with any service or institution. However, if online services differ as to the opening line, we try to pick "half odds" so as to avoid ties with the line. This can be an updated line.

Caveat Emptor! Please do not use our predictions for wagering. We disclaim any and all liability for anyone's use of our materials, of our links to 3rd party sites, and/or of our prognostications, nor do we make any warranties as to the accuracy of our data or our calculations. Our prognostication hobby helps us to keep track of news and sports all over America. We are not in this for the money. May the best team win.

Our prognostications here are based on our own rankings of all FBS football teams, as made after the 15th week of play. Our ranking for each team is given in parentheses next to the team name. What the stats tell us does not always correspond to our own subjective opinion, so that we are flexible in our calls. We think, e.g., that LSU is the best team in the nation, but we will see, even though our stats put Ohio State first.

A quick rough check of the prognostication spread can be made by taking the ranking difference between teams, e.g. 11 for Utah and 24 for Texas, a difference of 13, multiply by 3 = 39 and divide by 10 = 3.9 scoreboard points, which roughly corresponds to "the line" of 6 points. We use this method to check our own prognostications, made by more complicated methods.


Saturday, December 14, 2019

ARMY-NAVY GAME
Army (115) vs. Navy (30) at Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
The Midshipmen were favored over the Black Knights by 9 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 45 points.
Our Call: 34-17 for Navy. Our stats would favor Navy by ca. 25 points, but games betwen the military academies perhaps reflect closer scores. We treat the Army-Navy game as a "bowl game" for purposes of our stats.
Result: Navy topped Army 31-7 as Malcolm Perry rushed for 304 record yards.
For the "Bowl Games" of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
1-0 in calling the winner
1-0 against the spread, and
0-1 against the over/under.


Friday, December 20, 2019

Makers Wanted Bahamas Bowl
Buffalo (101) vs. Charlotte (103) at Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium, Nassau
The Bulls were favored over the 49ers by 7 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 56.5 points.
Our Call: 31-27 for Buffalo. Strength of schedule beyond about 60th is difficult to calculate so we look to NAYPPA, not just AYPPA (see our rankings for an explanation), where Buffalo has an advantage of (plus) +0.61 to (plus) +0.26, i.e. a difference of 0.35 x 10 = 3.5 scoreboard points.
Result: Buffalo defeated Charlotte 31-9 in a game otherwise fairly even on the total offense stats, given the final score. Jaret Patterson rushed for 173 yards and two touchdowns for the Bulls.
For the "Bowl Games" of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
2-0 in calling the winner
1-1 against the spread, and
0-2 against the over/under.


Tropical Smoothie Cafe Frisco Bowl
Utah State (68) vs. Kent State (100) at Toyota Stadium, Frisco, Texas
The Aggies were favored over the Golden Flashes by 8 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 64 points.
Our Call: 36-27 for Utah State. The ranking difference is 32 x 3 = 96 divided by 10 = 9.6 points, as compared to the opening line of 8 points, which has since then updated to 10 points. The adjusted yards per play stat for Utah State is (minus) -1.53 and for Kent State (minus) -2.69, a difference of 1.16 x 10 = 11.6 scoreboard points. By pure NAYPPA, unadjusted for schedule difficulty, the Aggies have +0.21 as compared to -0.56 for Kent State, a difference of 0.78 x 10 = 7.8 scoreboard points. So the general ballpark figure is sound in analysis.
Result: Kent State won its first bowl game ever 51-41 against the Aggies with a 25-point 4th quarter, as the Golden Flashes' QB Dustin Crum completed 21 of 26 passes for 289 yards and 2 touchdowns and added 147 yards rushing and 1 TD on 23 carries. Jordan Love was 30 of 39 passing for 317 yards and 3 TDs with one pick for the Aggies.
For the "Bowl Games" of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
2-1 in calling the winner
1-2 against the spread, and
0-3 against the over/under.


Saturday, December 21, 2019

Celebration Bowl [an FCS bowl]
Alcorn State (FCS) vs. North Carolina A&T (FCS) at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia (read the linked Wikipedia pages for interesting college info)
The Aggies were favored over the Braves by 7.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 47 points.
Our Call: 27-26 for North Carolina A&T.
Result: The game started as a defensive run-oriented matchup with Alcorn State leading 3-0 after the first quarter, and then became a pass-dominated offensive battle won by North Carolina A&T 64-44, as Kylil Carter threw for 6 touchdowns for the Aggies.
For the "Bowl Games" of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
3-1 in calling the winner
1-3 against the spread, and
1-3 against the over/under.


New Mexico Bowl
Central Michigan (84) vs. San Diego State (63) at Dreamstyle Stadium, Albuquerque, New Mexico
The Aztecs were favored over the Chippewas by 6.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 40 points.
Our Call: 20-17 for San Diego State. The difference in ranking position is 21 x 3 =63 divided by 10 = 6.3 scoreboard points. The adjusted yards per play stats are (minus) -1.44 and (minus) -2.27 = a difference of 0.83 x 10 = 8.3 scoreboard points. Unadjusted NAPPA, however, favors Central Michigan +0.85 to the Aztecs -0.03, a difference of 0.88 x 10 = 8.8 scoreboard points .
Result: San Diego State outgained the Chippewas 510 to 277 yards, and Central Michigan gave up 5 turnovers as the Aztecs won in a rout 48-11. Nevertheless, it was a very successful turnaround season for Central Michigan under their new head football coach Jim McElwain, as the Chippewas went from 1 win last season to 8 wins this year.
For the "Bowl Games" of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
4-1 in calling the winner
1-4 against the spread, and
2-3 against the over/under.


Cure Bowl
Liberty (94)  vs. Georgia Southern (95) at Exploria Stadium, Orlando, Florida
The Eagles were favored over the Flames by 8.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 55 points.
Our Call: 30-27 for Georgia Southern.
Result: Liberty topped Georgia Southern 23-16.
For the "Bowl Games" of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
4-2 in calling the winner
2-4 against the spread, and
2-4 against the over/under.


Cheribundi Boca Raton Bowl
SMU (40) vs. Florida Atlantic (73) at FAU Stadium, Boca Raton, Florida
The Mustangs were favored over the Owls by 3.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 72 points.
Our Call: 31-30 for Florida Atlantic.
Result: Florida Atlantic beat SMU 52-28.
For the "Bowl Games" of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
5-2 in calling the winner
3-4 against the spread, and
2-5 against the over/under.


Camellia Bowl
Florida International (106) vs. Arkansas State (92) at Cramton Bowl, Montgomery, Alabama
The Red Wolves were favored over the Panthers by 4.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 62.5 points.
Our Call: 30-27 for Arkansas State.
Result: Arkansas State prevailed over Florida International 34-26.
For the "Bowl Games" of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
6-2 in calling the winner
3-5 against the spread, and
3-5 against the over/under.


Mitsubishi Motors Las Vegas Bowl
Boise State (27) vs. Washington (25) at Sam Boyd Stadium, Las Vegas, Nevada
The Huskies were favored over the Broncos by 3 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 49 points.
Our Call: 26-24 for Washington. Our stats favor Washington by 1.5 points.
Result: Washington beat Boise State 38-7.
For the "Bowl Games" of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
7-2 in calling the winner
3-6 against the spread, and
3-6 against the over/under.


R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Appalachian State (29) vs. UAB (83) at Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana
The Mountaineers were favored over the Blazers by 19.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 47.5 points.
Our Call: 34-17 for Appalachian State.
Result: Appalachian State topped UAB 31-17.
For the "Bowl Games" of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
8-2 in calling the winner
4-6 against the spread, and
4-6 against the over/under.


Monday, December 23, 2019

Bad Boy Mowers Gasparilla Bowl
UCF (37) vs. Marshall (72) at Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida
The Knights were favored over the Thundering Herd by 16.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 59.5 points.
Our Call: 34-20 for UCF.
Result: UCF topped Marshall 48-25.
For the "Bowl Games" of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
9-2 in calling the winner
4-7 against the spread, and
4-7 against the over/under.


Tuesday, December 24, 2019

SoFi Hawai'i Bowl
Hawai'i (62) vs. BYU (64) at Aloha Stadium, Honolulu, Hawai'i
The Cougars were favored over the Warriors by 2 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 62 points.
Our Call: 34-33 for Hawai'i.
Result: Hawaii edged BYU 38-34 as Warriors QB Cole McDonald threw for 493 yards and 4 TDs.
For the "Bowl Games" of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
10-2 in calling the winner
5-7 against the spread, and
5-7 against the over/under.


Thursday, December 26, 2019

Walk-On's Independence Bowl
Louisiana Tech (87) vs. Miami of Florida (46) at Independence Stadium, Shreveport, Louisiana
The Hurricanes were favored over the Bulldogs by 10.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 49 points.
Our Call: 34-20 for Miami.
Result: Louisiana Tech shut out Miami 14-0.
For the "Bowl Games" of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
10-3 in calling the winner
5-8 against the spread, and
5-8 against the over/under.


Quick Lane Bowl
Pittsburgh (52) vs. Eastern Michigan (107) at Ford Field, Detroit, Michigan
The Panthers were favored over the Eagles by 10.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 49.5 points.
Our Call: 34-17 for Pittsburgh.
Result: Pittsburgh edged Eastern Michigan 34-30.
For the "Bowl Games" of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
11-3 in calling the winner
5-9 against the spread, and
6-8 against the over/under.


Friday, December 27, 2019

Military Bowl Presented by Northrop Grumman
North Carolina (33) vs. Temple (51) at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, Annapolis, Maryland
The Tar Heels were favored over the Owls by 6.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 53.5 points.
Our Call: 30-24 for North Carolina.
Result: North Carolina routed Temple 55-13.
For the "Bowl Games" of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
12-3 in calling the winner
5-10 against the spread, and
7-8 against the over/under.


New Era Pinstripe Bowl
Michigan State (35) vs. Wake Forest (75)
at Yankee Stadium, New York, New York
The Spartans were favored over the Demon Deacons by 3 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 50 points.
Our Call: 31-20 for Michigan State.
Result: Michigan State edged Wake Forest 27-21.
For the "Bowl Games" of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
13-3 in calling the winner
6-10 against the spread, and
7-9 against the over/under.


Academy Sports + Outdoors Texas Bowl
Oklahoma State (18) vs. Texas A&M (17) at NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas
The Aggies were favored over the Cowboys by 3 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 51.5 points.
Our Call: 31-30 for Texas A&M.
Result: Texas A&M edged Oklahoma State 24-21.
For the "Bowl Games" of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
14-3 in calling the winner
6-10-1 against the spread, and
7-10 against the over/under.


San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl
USC (16) vs. Iowa (19) at SDCCU Stadium, San Diego, California
The Hawkeyes were favored over the Trojans by 3 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 54 points.
Our Call: 30-27 for USC.
Result: Iowa prevailed 49-24 over USC in spite of being outgained 356 to 328 yards, as the Trojans turned the ball over three times. Ihmir Smith-Marsette scored three TDS including a 96-yard kickoff return for a TD for Iowa.
For the "Bowl Games" of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
14-4 in calling the winner
6-11-1 against the spread, and
8-10 against the over/under.


Cheez-It Bowl
Air Force (59) vs. Washington State (45) at Chase Field, Phoenix, Arizona
The Falcons were favored over the Cougars by 2.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 66 points.
Our Call: 37-34 for Washington State.
Result: Air Force topped Washington State 31-21, as the Falcons rushed for 371 yards and dominated possession 43:24 to 16:36.
For the "Bowl Games" of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
14-5 in calling the winner
6-12-1 against the spread, and
8-11 against the over/under.


Saturday, December 28, 2019

Camping World Bowl
Notre Dame (15) vs. Iowa State (20) at Camping World Stadium, Orlando, Florida
The Fighting Irish were favored over the Cyclones by 5.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 56.5 points.
Our Call: 33-30 for Notre Dame.
Result: Notre Dame won handily against Iowa State 33-9.
For the "Bowl Games" of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
15-5 in calling the winner
6-13-1 against the spread, and
8-12 against the over/under.


Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
Penn State (14) vs. Memphis (21) at AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
The Nittany Lions were favored over the Tigers by 7 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 59 points.
Our Call: 31-23 for Penn State.
Result: Penn State outscored Memphis 53-39 even though the Tigers outgained the Nittany Lions 542 to 529 yards total offense.
For the "Bowl Games" of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
16-5 in calling the winner
7-13-1 against the spread, and
8-13 against the over/under.


The subsequent two games show Playoff Committee Rankings in parentheses. We ourselves favor an LSU ranking as Number One over the Buckeyes, but our system gives Ohio State the nod by a narrow margin. Our stats rank Oklahoma 3rd and Clemson 5th (with Alabama, not in the playoffs, as 4th, whereby the Tua injury surely played a role in Alabama not making the playoffs this year). Clemson has the best raw yards per play stats, but against weak opposition. The game against Ohio State will show us more.

College Playoff Semifinal Game 1 Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Oklahoma (4) vs. LSU (1) at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia
The Tigers were favored over the Sooners by 10 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 77.5 points.
Our Call: 49-38 for LSU. This is a great matchup involving two of the best college quarterbacks, Joe Burrow of LSU and Jalen Hurts of Oklahoma, both, together with Ohio State's QB Justin Fields and Buckeyes' defensive end Chase Young, candidates for the Heisman Trophy to be awarded December 14, with Burrow the heavy favorite. Cfbstats.com tells us that LSU and Oklahoma are ranked 1st and 2nd in FBS total offense this season, followed by Clemson, UCF and Ohio State. LSU in our FBS 2019 rankings has an adjusted AYPP (adjusted yards per play) rating of (plus) +2.69 while Oklahoma has an AYPP of (plus) +2.47, a difference of 0.22 rating points which we multiply by 10 and then equate to a difference of 2.2 scoreboard points. The ypp stats for both teams total 26.27 = 4.27 more than the standard 2 x 11.00 = 22.00 ypp total for both teams, which reflects a total score of 55 scoreboard points. Dividing that 4.27 difference by 2 we get 2.14 x 10 = 21.4 points more than are expected beyond 55 scoreboard points as the standard for 22.00 ypp, so that 55 + 21.4 = 76.4 points as our statistically prognosticated over/under (total score).
Result: Heisman Trophy winner Joe Burrow blitzed the Sooners for 7 touchdown passes in the first half, four of those to Justin Jefferson, all record performances, as the Tigers went into halftime with a stratospheric 49-14 lead, and are headed into the college football playoff final game after a dazzling 63-28 win over Oklahoma and their Heisman Trophy runner-up quarterback Jalen Hurts.
For the "Bowl Games" of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
17-5 in calling the winner
8-13-1 against the spread, and
9-13 against the over/under.


College Playoff Semifinal Game 2 PlayStation Fiesta Bowl
Clemson (3) vs. Ohio State (2) at State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Arizona
The Tigers were favored over the Buckeyes by 2 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 62.5 points.
Our Call: 30-27 for Ohio State. Both teams have exceptional credentials. Clemson is the incumbent champion, but the team
lost several top players to graduation and has faced a relatively easy schedule this year. Ohio State has been seen by some to be one of the great college football teams of all time, but lost adherents to the claim of greatness by trailing Wisconsin 21-7 at halftime last week. Ohio State in our FBS 2019 rankings has an adjusted AYPP (adjusted yards per play) rating of (plus) +2.94 while Clemson has an AYPP of (plus) +1.81, a difference of 1.13 rating points which we multiply by 10 and then equate to a difference of 11.3 scoreboard points. If we ignore schedule difficulty, Ohio State and Clemson have the best yards per play defenses in FBS. The ypp stats for both teams total 22.42 = 0.42 more than the standard 2 x 11.00 = 22.00 ypp total for both teams, which reflects a total score of 55 scoreboard points. Dividing that 0.42 difference by 2 we get 0.21 x 10 = 2.1 points more than are expected beyond 55 scoreboard points as the standard for 22.00 ypp, so that 55 + 2.1 = 57.1 points as our statistically prognosticated over/under (total score).
Result: In a game decided by several critical and momentum-changing calls by officials in the replay booth by the SEC officiating team in charge, the Tigers emerged as the victors on the scoreboard 29-23 in spite of being outgained on the field 516 to 417 yards total offense. Ohio State had 28 first downs, Clemson 21.

It is a shame when obviously bad replay booth officiating at critical game moments decides a game outcome rather than the players' play on the field. The rule is that the replay booth is not to overturn officiating calls on the field without indusputable evidence and that rule was not adhered to in this game by a replay booth that seemed to be taking the game into its own hands by over-emphasizing its own importance, and thereby clearly changing the outcome of the game. The great media controversy over two replay booth calls overturning officials on the field is proof in itself -- had the evidence been "indisputable" there would be no controversy. But there is plenty of controversy and a great deal of contrary opinion on the calls. NOT indisputable.

We do not consider Clemson as the honest winner here.

On the Wade targeting call, initiated by the replay booth and not even called on the field, a slow motion view of the play shows that when Ohio State DB Wade left his feet for the tackle, Clemson QB Lawrence was standing upright. However, Lawrence (6'6") then crouched and ducked his head to the left and forward in anticipation of the already flying tackle by Wade (6'1") and thus put his head directly in the path of Wade's helmut which otherwise would have hit Lawrence's shoulder. This was by no means an intentional targeting tackle and the call reversal was clearly "disputable" and not "indisputable". See here for the video: https://www.12up.com/posts/ohio-state-shaun-wade-ejected-targeting-call-clemson-trevor-lawrence-video-01dx7rygex3x. What is involved here is a replay booth intentionally over-exerting their power. Similarly, the replay booth overturning of an Ohio State fumble recovery and subsequent return for a TD is obviously wrong when viewed in slow motion as the receiver has full possession of the ball and is tucking it away. See where it can be seen that the receiver held the ball for a long time (with both hands!) and had already made steps with the football in tow when tackled.
Why was this or that particular official or particular officials in the replay booth and what is his viz. their record in that capacity in past games? Is over-reach a trademark of that particular replay booth personnel? A questionable call was already made in the Alabama vs. Auburn Iron Bowl.
For the "Bowl Games" of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
17-6 in calling the winner
8-14-1 against the spread, and
10-13 against the over/under.


Monday, December 30, 2019

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Western Kentucky (80) vs. Western Michigan (102) at Gerald J. Ford Stadium, Dallas, Texas
The Hilltoppers were favored over the Broncos by 2.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 54 points.
Our Call: 31-24 for Western Kentucky. .
Result: Western Kentucky edged Western Michigan 23-20 on a game-ending 52-yard field goal. The Hilltoppers outgained the Broncos 481 to 307 yards but had trouble making that advantage show up on the scoreboard.
For the "Bowl Games" of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
18-6 in calling the winner
9-14-1 against the spread, and
10-14 against the over/under.


Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl
Mississippi State (36) vs. Louisville (54) at Nissan Stadium, Nashville, Tennessee
The Bulldogs were favored over the Cardinals by 3.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 60.5 points.
Our Call: 38-33 for Mississippi State. Louisville has thrived under the first-year tenure of head football coach Scott Satterfield, formerly of Appalachian State, for which he has been selected ACC Coach of the Year.
Result: Louisville topped Mississippi State 38-28.
For the "Bowl Games" of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
18-7 in calling the winner
9-15-1 against the spread, and
11-14 against the over/under.


Redbox Bowl
California (57) vs. Illinois (66) at Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California
The Golden Bears were favored over the Fighting Illini by 6.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 42.5 points.
Our Call: 27-24 for Cal.
Result: Cal prevailed over Illinois 35-20.
For the "Bowl Games" of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
19-7 in calling the winner
9-16-1 against the spread, and
12-14 against the over/under.


Capital One Orange Bowl
Florida (10) vs. Virginia (42) at Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida
The Gators were favored over the Cavaliers by 14.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 53.5 points.
Our Call: 31-20 for Florida.
Result: Florida beat Virginia 36-28.
For the "Bowl Games" of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
20-7 in calling the winner
10-16-1 against the spread, and
12-15 against the over/under.


Tuesday, December 31, 2019

Belk Bowl
Virginia Tech (49) vs. Kentucky (41) at Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina
The Wildcats were favored over the Hokies by 2 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 51 points.
Our Call: 30-27 for Kentucky.
Result: Kentucky scored a last-minute TD and PAT to make the score 31-30 and, after the kickoff, on the ensuing Virginia Tech's last play with time running out, the Hokies tried to lateral hand-off their way down the field only to fumble and have it recovered for a return TD and 37-30 win by Kentucky.
For the "Bowl Games" of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
21-7 in calling the winner
11-16-1 against the spread, and
13-15 against the over/under.


Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Florida State (48) vs. Arizona State (32) at Sun Bowl Stadium, El Paso, Texas
The Sun Devils were favored over the Seminoles by 3 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 55 points.
Our Call: 31-27 for Arizona State.
Result: Florida State outgained Arizona State 470 to 282 yards, but turned the ball over six times as the Sun Devils edged the Seminoles 20-14.
For the "Bowl Games" of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
22-7 in calling the winner
12-16-1 against the spread, and
13-16 against the over/under.


AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Navy (30) vs. Kansas State (31) at Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium, Memphis, Tennessee
The Wildcats were favored over the Midshipmen by 2.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 51 points.
Our Call: 27-26 for Kansas State. This game looks like a toss-up. Navy leads the nation in rushing offense per se and is 5th in ypp at 5.98 ypp, just behind Oklahoma in 4th place at 6.08, a team that Kansas State beat 48-41, allowing only 102 rushing yards on 26 carries. On the other hand, Oklahoma State rushed for 373 yards on 44 carries to beat the Wildcats 26-13. The highest-ranked team beaten by Navy is SMU, 40th.
Result: Navy rushed for 323 yards but then succeeded on a trick pass play to get within field goal range and win 20-17 in the closing seconds of the game.
For the "Bowl Games" of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
22-8 in calling the winner
13-16-1 against the spread, and
13-17 against the over/under.


NOVA Home Loans Arizona Bowl
Wyoming (71) vs. Georgia State (109) at Arizona Stadium, Tucson, Arizona
The Cowboys were favored over the Panthers by 7.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 49.5 points.
Our Call: 35-24 for Wyoming.
Result: Wyoming beat Georgia State 38-17.
For the "Bowl Games" of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
23-8 in calling the winner
14-16-1 against the spread, and
14-17 against the over/under.


Valero Alamo Bowl
Utah (11) vs. Texas (24) at Alamodome, San Antonio, Texas
The Utes were favored over the Longhorns by 6 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 54 points.
Our Call: 34-24 for Utah.
Result: Texas routed Utah 38-10.
For the "Bowl Games" of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
23-9 in calling the winner
14-17-1 against the spread, and
14-18 against the over/under.


Wednesday, January 1, 2020

Vrbo Citrus Bowl
Michigan (8) vs. Alabama (4) at Camping World Stadium, Orlando, Florida
The Crimson Tide were favored over the Wolverines by 7 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 57 points.
Our Call: 34-24 for Alabama.
Result: Michigan led 16-14 at halftime but it was all Crimson Tide in the second half in a 35-16 win for Alabama over the Wolverines.
For the "Bowl Games" of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
24-9 in calling the winner
15-17-1 against the spread, and
14-19 against the over/under.


Outback Bowl
Minnesota (22) vs. Auburn (12) at Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida
The Tigers were favored over the Golden Gophers by 10 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 51.5 points.
Our Call: 31-20 for Auburn.
Result: Minnesota pulled off an upset with a 31-24 stunner over Auburn.
For the "Bowl Games" of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
24-10 in calling the winner
15-18-1 against the spread, and
14-20 against the over/under.


Rose Bowl Game presented by Northwestern Mutual
Oregon (9) vs. Wisconsin (7) at the Rose Bowl, Pasadena, California
The Badgers were favored over the Ducks by 1.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 48.5 points.
Our Call: 27-24 for Wisconsin. Oregon is coming off an impressive 37-15 win over Utah while Wisconsin looked good in part while leading Ohio State 21-7 at halftime in losing ultimately 34-21.
Result: Oregon was outgained 322 to 204 yards total offense (the lowest Rose Bowl total offense stat in 40 years) but squeaked past Wisconsin 28-27 on the scoreboard as Wisconsin had four turnovers and as Ducks QB Justin Herbert, normally a passing quarterback, scored 3 rushing touchdowns. Brady Breeze scored on a fumble return of a dropped punt by the Wisconsin kicker. The Wisconsin highlight was a 95-yard kickoff return by Aron Cruickshank.
For the "Bowl Games" of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
24-11 in calling the winner
15-19-1 against the spread, and
15-20 against the over/under.


Allstate Sugar Bowl
Georgia (6) vs. Baylor (13)
at Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana
The Dawgs were favored over the Bears by 7 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 41.5 points.
Our Call: 30-27 for Georgia.
Result: Georgia topped Baylor 26-14.
For the "Bowl Games" of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
25-11 in calling the winner
15-20-1 against the spread, and
15-21 against the over/under.


Thursday, January 2, 2020

TicketSmarter Birmingham Bowl
Boston College (76) vs. Cincinnati (23) at Legion Field, Birmingham, Alabama
The Bearcats were favored over the Eagles by 6.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 55 points.
Our Call: 34-23 for Cincinnati.
Result: Cincinnati routed Boston College 38-6, outgaining the Eagles 459 to 164 yards.
For the "Bowl Games" of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
26-11 in calling the winner
16-20-1 against the spread, and
15-22 against the over/under.


TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
Indiana (43) vs. Tennessee (28) at TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, Florida
The game was seen as even. Take your pick.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 51.5 points.
Our Call: 30-26 for Tennessee.
Result: Tennessee edged Indiana 23-22 with two late scores.
For the "Bowl Games" of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
27-11 in calling the winner
17-20-1 against the spread, and
15-23 against the over/under.


Friday, January 3, 2020

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Ohio (98) vs. Nevada (88) at Albertsons Stadium, Boise, Idaho
The Bobcats were favored over the Wolf Pack by 6 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 54 points.
Our Call: 31-30 for Nevada.
Result: Ohio topped Nevada 30-21.
For the "Bowl Games" of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
27-12 in calling the winner
18-20-1 against the spread, and
15-24 against the over/under.


Saturday, January 4, 2020

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Southern Mississippi (91) vs. Tulane (53) at Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, Texas
The Green Wave were favored over the Golden Eagles by 7 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 57.5 points.
Our Call: 34-24 for Tulane.
Result: Tulane beat Southern Miss 30-13.
For the "Bowl Games" of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
28-12 in calling the winner
19-20-1 against the spread, and
15-25 against the over/under.


Monday, January 6, 2020

LendingTree Bowl
Louisiana-Lafayette (39) vs. Miami of Ohio (97) at Ladd-Peebles Stadium, Mobile, Alabama
The Ragin' Cajuns were favored over the RedHawks by 13.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 56 points.
Our Call: 34-20 for Louisiana.
Result: Louisiana beat Miami of Ohio 27-17.
For the "Bowl Games" of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
29-12 in calling the winner
19-21-1 against the spread, and
16-25 against the over/under.


Monday, January 13, 2020

College Playoff Championship Game
Clemson vs. LSU at Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana
The LSU Tigers were favored over the Clemson Tigers by 5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 69 points.
Our Call: 38-27 for LSU. Clemson is in this championship because they came back from a 16-0 deficit
to defeat Ohio State 29-23 in the semi-final, playing good defense in the red zone to stay in the game, but wrongly aided several times by what we view to be clearly erroneous and regrettable momentum-changing replay booth officiating, as Ohio State would otherwise surely have won the game. According to cfbstats.com, LSU goes into this game averaging 7.91 yards per play on offense and 5.05 yards per play on defense, a NAYPPA (net average yards per play advantage) of 2.86 against a schedule difficulty ranked by Massey Ratings as 3rd in FBS. Clemson goes into this game averaging 7.46 yards per play on offense and 4.16 yards per play on defense, a NAYPPA (net average yards per play advantage) of 3.30 against a schedule difficulty ranked by Massey Ratings as 17th in FBS, a schedule difficulty that we find too positive toward a Clemson team playing all season long in a relatively weak ACC conference. See also Team Rankings.com. MasseyRatings had the Clemson schedule at 58th prior to the conference championships and playoffs, so that two games should not improve the schedule difficulty by 40 places. Rather we multiply 58 x 12 games = 696 and add 3 and 36 for Ohio State and Virginia MasseyRatings rankings to give 735 divided by 14 games = 52. 52 x 3 divided by 100 gives an adjustment of 1.56 substracted from 3.30 = 1.74 as the Clemson AYPPA (adjusted yards per play advantage) compared to LSU's schedule difficulty ranking of 3 x 3 divided by 100 = 0.09 gives an AYPPA of 2.86 minus 0.09 = 2.77. 2.77 minus 1.74 = 1.03 x 10 = a 10.3 scoreboard point advantage to LSU. The ypp totals are 7.91 + 5.05 = 12.96 for LSU and 7.46 + 4.16 = 11.62 for Clemson for a total of 12.96 + 11.62 = 24.58 divided by 2 = 12.29 for the over/under total score calculation of 12.29 minus 11.00 = 1.29 x 10 = 12.90 or 13 points above the statistiscal total score average of 55 points = 68 points. We go to 11 points and 38-27 for LSU as our prediction.
Result: What a pleasure it was to watch this fast-moving game between two top teams showing the world how well college football can be played, as LSU prevailed over Clemson 42-25.

For the "Bowl Games" of the 2019 FBS college football season we thus finished:
30-12 in calling the winner
20-21-1 against the spread, and
17-25 against the over/under


so that our cumulative 2019/2020 FBS football season stats were as follows:
667-220 in calling the winner (75+%)
444-427-16 against the spread, and
433-432-11 against the over/under ("total").


Those are pretty good numbers considering that our main prediction parameters are merely yards per play stats and schedule difficulty rank. The results could be improved by not taking schedule difficulty "rank" but rather by calculating the average rank of the teams played, which would be a better figure for comparison and quantification.