Monday, September 15, 2014

College Football Rankings and Ratings After Week 3 FBS 2014 by SportPundit

College Football Rankings and Ratings After Week 3 FBS 2014 by SportPundit

The SportPundit 2014 College Football Rankings After Week 3 in NCAA FBS play are out and can be viewed below. The schedule difficulty stat is strongly tweaked. See also our preseason rankings at this link. These kinds of rankings and ratings have limited value early in the season because there are too many unknowns.

This week we are changing our formula so that 1 rating point = 10 scoreboard points and .1 rating point = 1 point. Previously, we had 1 rating point = 7 scoreboard points which has proven to be too low in this day of wide open offenses, etc.

Our rankings are based the NAYPPA of each team (net average yards per play advantage) minus a calculation based on schedule difficulty up to this week in the season (currently we are subtracting ca. 3 x the schedule difficulty divided by 100 -- but not always) and minus .2 for each loss (but not always). The schedule difficulty is based on our own preseason rankings, on Massey Ratings and Sagarin at USA Today, both of whom rate the FCS teams, as these are played by FBS teams early in the season. We take the cumulative stat data from cfbstats.com and from the college and university football athletic pages online. Many schools have cumulative season statistics, but some have none, or are difficult to access.

Caveat emptor (Buyer beware): We make this material available in good fun out of interest for the sport of college football. Please do not rely on our material to place bets or wagers of any kind.  No one knows the exact outcome of a game or a season before it is played and that is what makes it so interesting. We disclaim any and all liability for the consequences of anyone relying in any way upon our postings, analysis, links or reasoning - for which we make no warranty of accuracy. May the best team win.


College Football Rankings and Ratings by SportPundit After Week 3 FBS 2014 Season


Please note this early in the season and given the many games in weeks that have taken place between FBS and FCS teams that the calculations, ratings and rankings have many SUBJECTIVE adjustments! This list is thus principally for our own use as a rough guide for our predictions. 
After
WEEK

3
Team
Rank
2014
by 
Sport
Pundit


TEAM
Name
(head
coaching
change
marked
by

## link)


2014
NAYPPA
net
average
yards per play
advantage
offense
over
defense
stats from
cfbstats.com

(our
calculation) 


yards
per
play
offense
cfbstats
.com

yards
per
play
defense
cfbstats
.com



Schedule
difficulty

 (our
algorithm
based
on
various
sources
* =
strongly
adjusted
calcul.)


W-L
(won
-loss)
record
2014
including
bowl
games

YPPSYS
2014

Team
Rating by
Sport

Pundit

1 Auburn 2.9

7.61
4.72

60*
2-0
+1.1
2 Oklahoma3.1

7.00
3.92

70*
3-0
+1.0
3 Oregon 2.8

8.35
5.54

70*
3-0
+0.7

4  
Florida State
2.1

7.03
4.90

50*
2-0
+0.6
5  
Alabama
2.8

7.58
4.80

80*
3-0
+0.4
6 Nebraska 4.0

8.03
4.06

130*
3-0
+0.1
7 Notre Dame 1.3

6.06
4.75

40*
3-0
+0.1
8 Baylor
4.4


7.76
3.40


145*

3-0

+0.1

9 Missouri 1.2

6.12
4.96

40*
3-0
+0.0
10 LSU 2.6

6.12
3.53

85*
3-0
+0.0
11 Texas A&M 2.6

7.57
4.97

85*

3-0

+0.0

12 Mississippi 2.4

6.81
4.37

80*
3-0
+0.0
13Stanford 3.1

6.78
3.63

100*
2-1
-0.1
14 South Carolina
-0.5


6.29
6.82

0**
2-1
-0.1
15 Wisconsin
1.5


5.91
4.43


50*

1-1

-0.2

16 TCU 2.8

5.81
3.04

105*
2-0
-0.3
17 Cincinnati 1.2

8.11
6.87

50**
1-0
-0.3
18 Michigan State 0.9

6.63
5.73

35*
1-1
-0.4
19 BYU 1.3

5.70
4.45

60*
3-0
-0.5
20 Arizona 2.3

7.30
5.00

95*
3-0

-0.5
21 Utah 3.9

7.01
4.12

150*
2-0
-0.6
22 Georgia 1.8

6.83
4.99

75***
1-1
-0.6
23 East Carolina 2.6

7.22
4.61

100
2-1
-0.6
24 USC ## 0.7

6.05
5.33

40*
2-1
-0.7
25 Clemson 1.9

6.07
4.19

80*
1-1
-0.7
26 Virginia Tech -0.3

5.03
5.32

10*
2-1
-0.7
27 Ohio State 2.3

6.52
4.18

95*
2-1
-0.7
28 Michigan 2.8

6.93
4.12

110*
2-1
-0.7
29 Oklahoma St. 0.8

6.03
5.28

45*
2-1
-0.7
30Florida2.3

6.59
4.32

100*
2-0
-0.7
31 Arizona State
2.2


7.59
5.41


100*
3-0
-0.8
32 Penn State ## 1.5

5.95
4.44

80*
3-0
-0.9
33 Mississippi St.
1.7


6.72
5.03


85*

3-0

-0.9

34 Kansas State 1.6

6.28
4.72

85*
2-0
-0.9
35 Arkansas 2.0

7.79
5.72

90*
2-1
-0.9
36 West Virginia 0.7

6.20
5.54

50*
2-1
-1.0
37 UCLA 0.4

5.61
5.14

50*
3-0
-1.1
38 Miami (Florida) 2.7

6.38
3.71

120*
2-1
-1.1
39 Pittsburgh 2.7

6.27
3.58

125*
3-0
-1.1
40 Boston College 0.8

5.99
5.17

60*
2-1
-1.2
41 Texas ## 0.3

4.57
4.22

40*
1-2
-1.3
42 Marshall 3.8

8.16
4.37

170*
3-0
-1.3
43 Toledo 0.5

6.89
6.41

50*
1-2
-1.4
44 Tennessee -0.4

4.65
5.04

30***
2-1
-1.5
45 Louisville ## 0.8

5.33
4.49

70*
2-1
-1.5
46 Syracuse 1.1

5.30
4.21

90*
2-0
-1.6
47 Boise State ## 0.6


5.94
5.38

65*
2-1
-1.6
48 Kentucky 1.9

6.79
4.91

110*
2-1
-1.6
49 Texas Tech 1.8

6.94
5.13

110*
2-1
-1.7
50 Louisiana Tech 0.6

5.71
5.09

70*
2-1
-1.7
51 UTSA -1.1

3.90
5.00

10***
1-2
-1.8
52 Navy 1.1

6.81
5.74

90*
2-1
-1.8
53   Rutgers 0.1

6.18
6.11

60*
2-1
-1.9
54 Maryland 0.9

5.67
4.76

85*
2-1
-1.9
55 Virginia -0.2

4.61
4.81

50*
2-1
-1.9
56 North. Illinois 0.8

5.82
5.02

90*
3-0
-1.9
57 Oregon State 2.2

6.25
4.07

140*
2-0
-2.0
58 California 1.8

6.21
4.46

125*
2-0
-2.0
59 UAB - ##
1.6


6.47 
4.89


115**

2-1

-2.0

60 Washington ## 0.0

5.69
5.71

75**
2-0
-2.1
61 Georgia Tech 0.4

6.98
6.56

85***
3-0
-2.2
62 N.C. State 1.2

6.76
5.56

115*
3-0
-2.2
63 Minnesota 0.0

5.12
5.12

70*
2-1
-2.3
64 Illinois 1.0

6.11
5.16

105*
2-1
-2.3
65 Washington St. 2.1

7.20
5.12

135*
1-2
-2.4
66 North Carolina -0.5

5.33
5.78

65***
2-0
-2.4
67 Duke 1.8

6.38
4.60

140*
3-0
-2.4
68 Georgia Southern 3.4

9.13
5.76

***
1-2
-2.4
69 San Diego St. 1.0

6.49
5.52

110*
1-1
-2.5
70 Iowa State -1.2

4.78
5.96

30*
1-2
-2.5
71 Iowa
-0.1


4.94
5.03

75*
2-1
-2.6
72 Wyoming ## -0.2

5.26
5.47

75*
2-1
-2.6
73 Northwestern -0.4

4.65
5.03

60*
0-2
-2.6
74 UCF -1.9

4.27
6.22

10*
0-2
-2.6
75 Nevada -1.3

5.16
6.47

35***
2-1
-2.6
76 Mid. Tennessee 0.7

6.38
5.67

105*
2-1
-2.7
77 W. Kentucky ## 0.4

6.62
6.23

90*
1-2
-2.7
78 Memphis 1.1

6.22
5.08

120*
1-1
-2.7
79 Akron 1.1

5.52
4.42

120*
1-1
-2.7
80 Arkansas St. ## -0.3

4.97
5.29

70*
1-2
-2.8
81 Rice -3.2

5.4
8.56

0***
0-2
-2.8
82 San Jose St. -0.8

5.07
5.90

***
1-1
-2.9

83 Colorado State 0.9

7.12
6.24

120*
2-1
-2.9
84 Hawaii -0.7

4.24
4.98

60*
1-2
-3.1
85 Temple -1.4

4.53
5.93

50*
1-1
-3.1

86 Houston 0.5

4.93
4.34

105*
1-2
-3.1
87 Louis.-Monroe 
0.1


4.55
4.45


100*

2-1

-3.1
88 Texas State 1.6

7.12
5.52

150*
1-1
-3.1
89 Bowling Gr. ## -0.3

6.13
6.47

90*
2-1
-3.2
90 Indiana 2.6

6.96
4.36

***
1-1
-3.2
91 Army ## -1.4

5.52
6.92

55*
1-1
-3.3
92 North Texas -1.4

3.59
4.95

55*
1-2
-3.3
93   Cent. Michigan  0.2

4.64
4.87

110*
2-1
-3.3
94 Ohio -1.0

5.24
6.23

65*

1-2

-3.3

95 Utah State
0.5


4.99
4.41


120*

2-1

-3.3

96   Florida Atl. ##  -2.2

5.14
7.33

25***
1-2
-3.4
97 Fl. Int'l FIU  -0.3

4.26
4.55

90*
1-2
-3.4
98 Vanderbilt ## -0.8

4.29
5.12

80*
1-2
-3.6
99 UConn ## -1.7

4.00
5.67

50**
1-2
-3.6
100 Old Dominion 0.5

5.83
5.31

130*
2-1
-3.6
101 Colorado -0.6

5.51
6.11

90*
1-2
-3.7
102 Louis.-Lafayette -0.9

5.60
6.47

80*
1-2
-3.7
103 South Alabama -1.4

4.41
5.77

70*
1-1
-3.7
104 Fresno State -2.9

4.24
7.10

10*
0-3
-3.8
105 South Florida -0.5

4.98
5.44

100*
1-2
-3.9
106 Purdue -1.1

4.53
5.65

80*
1-2
-3.9
107 Tulsa -2.7

5.09
7.76

***
1-2
-3.9
108 Tulane 0.5

5.90
5.43

135*
1-2
-3.9
109 UMass ## -0.5

4.95
5.44

95*
0-3
-3.9
110 Air Force 0.1

6.07
5.99

130*
2-1
-4.0
111 Ball State -0.4

4.68
5.09

110*
1-2
-4.1
112 Miami (Ohio) ## -1.4

4.60
6.01

70*
0-3
-4.1
113 SMU -2.7

2.75
5.49

35*
0-2
-4.1
114    West. Michigan 1.7

7.12
5.46

***
1-1
-4.4
115 Wake Forest ## -0.5

3.60
4.12

115*
1-2
-4.4
116 UTEP  -1.8

5.98
7.73

85**
2-1
-4.4
117 Troy -1.1

5.14
6.19

90*
0-3
-4.4
118 UNLV -1.3

5.62
6.87

100*
1-2
-4.6
119 Buffalo -1.2

6.04
7.22

100*
1-2
-4.6
120 New Mexico St. -0.3

5.50
5.78

135*

2-1

-4.6
121 Georgia State 0.9

6.98
6.11

170*
1-2
-4.6
122 Appalachian St. -0.4

5.64
6.06

130*
1-1
-4.7
123 Kent State -2.4

3.71
6.14


70*
0-3
-4.8
124 Southern Miss -2.4

4.69
7.10

70*
1-2
-4.9
125 Idaho -1.7

5.48
7.22

95*
0-2
-5.0
126   Kansas -1.8

5.06
6.90

100*
1-1
-5.0
127 New Mexico -1.6

6.31
7.90

100**
0-2
-5.0
128 E. Michigan ##  -3.3

3.43
6.76

***
1-1
-5.0

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