"Where there is no vision, the people perish: but he that keepeth the law, happy is he."
-- Proverbs 29:18, King James Bible (KJV)

Friday, December 13, 2019

SportPundit College Football Predictions for FBS Bowl Games and Playoffs 2019-2020

College Football Predictions Army-Navy Game, Bowl Games, Playoffs 2019-2020

... prognostications in progress below ...

Below are our FBS college football predictions for the Army-Navy game, for the Bowl Games, and for the College Football Playoff games 2019-2020. Our own subjective national championship favorite is LSU, i.e. Joe Burrow and Coach O's LSU Tigers.... but one can easily root for any of the other three top football teams.

Going into the Army-Navy game, the bowl games, & the playoffs, our season cumulative FBS prognostication record for 2019 after Week 15 stands at:
637-208 in calling the winner (75+%)
424-406-15 against the spread, and
416-407-11 against the over/under ("total").


If possible, we compete against the quoted opening odds ("the line", "the spread") as available online (e.g. Vegas Insider, OddsShark, Sportsline, The Action Network, 5Dimes, CFPT), and which can vary, so we have no fixed system of which portals we use. We do our predictions for fun and we are not affiliated with any service or institution. However, if online services differ as to the opening line, we try to pick "half odds" so as to avoid ties with the line. This can be an updated line.

Caveat Emptor! Please do not use our predictions for wagering. We disclaim any and all liability for anyone's use of our materials, of our links to 3rd party sites, and/or of our prognostications, nor do we make any warranties as to the accuracy of our data or our calculations. Our prognostication hobby helps us to keep track of news and sports all over America. We are not in this for the money. May the best team win.

Our prognostications here are based on our own rankings of all FBS football teams, as made after the 15th week of play. Our ranking for each team is given in parentheses next to the team name. What the stats tell us does not always correspond to our own subjective opinion, so that we are flexible in our calls. We think, e.g., that LSU is the best team in the nation, but we will see, even though our stats put Ohio State first.

A quick rough check of the prognostication spread can be made by taking the ranking difference between teams, e.g. 11 for Utah and 24 for Texas, a difference of 13, multiply by 3 = 39 and divide by 10 = 3.9 scoreboard points, which roughly corresponds to "the line" of 6 points. We use this method to check our own prognostications, made by more complicated methods.


Saturday, December 14, 2019

ARMY-NAVY GAME
Army (115) vs. Navy (30) at Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
The Midshipmen were favored over the Black Knights by 9 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 45 points.
Our Call: 34-17 for Navy. Our stats would favor Navy by ca. 25 points, but games betwen the military academies perhaps reflect closer scores.
Result: ??

Friday, December 20, 2019

Makers Wanted Bahamas Bowl
Buffalo (101) vs. Charlotte (103) at Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium, Nassau
The Bulls were favored over the 49ers by 7 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 56.5 points.
Our Call: 31-27 for Buffalo. Strength of schedule beyond about 60th is difficult to calculate so we look to NAYPPA, not just AYPPA (see our rankings for an explanation), where Buffalo has an advantage of (plus) +0.61 to (plus) +0.26, i.e. a difference of 0.35 x 10 = 3.5 scoreboard points.
Result: ??

Tropical Smoothie Cafe Frisco Bowl
Utah State (68) vs. Kent State (100) at Toyota Stadium, Frisco, Texas
The Aggies were favored over the Golden Flashes by 8 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 64 points.
Our Call: 36-27 for Utah State. The ranking difference is 32 x 3 = 96 divided by 10 = 9.6 points, as compared to the opening line of 8 points, which has since then updated to 10 points. The adjusted yards per play stat for Utah State is (minus) -1.53 and for Kent State (minus) -2.69, a difference of 1.16 x 10 = 11.6 scoreboard points. By pure NAYPPA, unadjusted for schedule difficulty, the Aggies have +0.21 as compared to -0.56 for Kent State, a difference of 0.78 x 10 = 7.8 scoreboard points. So the general ballpark figure is sound in analysis.
Result: ??

Saturday, December 21, 2019

Celebration Bowl [an FCS bowl]
Alcorn State (FCS) vs. North Carolina A&T (FCS) at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia (read the linked Wikipedia pages for interesting college info)
The Aggies were favored over the Braves by 7.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 47 points.
Our Call: 27-26 for North Carolina A&T.
Result: ??

New Mexico Bowl
Central Michigan (84) vs. San Diego State (63) at Dreamstyle Stadium, Albuquerque, New Mexico
The Aztecs were favored over the Chippewas by 6.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 40 points.
Our Call: 20-17 for San Diego State. The difference in ranking position is 21 x 3 =63 divided by 10 = 6.3 scoreboard points. The adjusted yards per play stats are (minus) -1.44 and (minus) -2.27 = a difference of 0.83 x 10 = 8.3 scoreboard points. Unadjusted NAPPA, however, favors Central Michigan +0.85 to the Aztecs -0.03, a difference of 0.88 x 10 = 8.8 scoreboard points .
Result: ??

Cure Bowl
Liberty (94)  vs. Georgia Southern (95) at Exploria Stadium, Orlando, Florida
The Eagles were favored over the Flames by 8.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 55 points.
Our Call: 30-27 for Georgia Southern.
Result: ??

Cheribundi Boca Raton Bowl
SMU (40) vs. Florida Atlantic (73) at FAU Stadium, Boca Raton, Florida
The Mustangs were favored over the Owls by 3.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 72 points.
Our Call: 31-30 for Florida Atlantic.
Result: ??

Camellia Bowl
Florida International (106) vs. Arkansas State (92) at Cramton Bowl, Montgomery, Alabama
The Red Wolves were favored over the Panthers by 4.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 62.5 points.
Our Call: 30-27 for Arkansas State.
Result: ??

Mitsubishi Motors Las Vegas Bowl
Boise State (27) vs. Washington (25) at Sam Boyd Stadium, Las Vegas, Nevada
The Huskies were favored over the Broncos by 3 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 49 points.
Our Call: 26-24 for Washington. Our stats favor Washington by 1.5 points.
Result: ??

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Appalachian State (29) vs. UAB (83) at Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana
The Mountaineers were favored over the Blazers by 19.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 47.5 points.
Our Call: 34-17 for Appalachian State.
Result: ??

Monday, December 23, 2019

Bad Boy Mowers Gasparilla Bowl
UCF (37) vs. Marshall (72) at Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida
The Knights were favored over the Thundering Herd by 16.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 59.5 points.
Our Call: 34-20 for UCF.
Result: ??

Tuesday, December 24, 2019

SoFi Hawai'i Bowl
Hawai'i (62) vs. BYU (64) at Aloha Stadium, Honolulu, Hawai'i
The Cougars were favored over the Warriors by 2 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 62 points.
Our Call: 34-33 for Hawai'i.
Result: ??

Thursday, December 26, 2019

Walk-On's Independence Bowl
Louisiana Tech (87) vs. Miami of Florida (46) at Independence Stadium, Shreveport, Louisiana
The Hurricanes were favored over the Bulldogs by 10.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 49 points.
Our Call: 34-20 for Miami.
Result: ??

Quick Lane Bowl
Pittsburgh (52) vs. Eastern Michigan (107) at Ford Field, Detroit, Michigan
The Panthers were favored over the Eagles by 10.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 49.5 points.
Our Call: 34-17 for Pittsburgh.
Result: ??

Friday, December 27, 2019

Military Bowl Presented by Northrop Grumman
North Carolina (33) vs. Temple (51) at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, Annapolis, Maryland
The Tar Heels were favored over the Owls by 6.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 53.5 points.
Our Call: 30-24 for North Carolina.
Result: ??

New Era Pinstripe Bowl
Michigan State (35) vs. Wake Forest (75)
at Yankee Stadium, New York, New York
The Spartans were favored over the Demon Deacons by 3 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 50 points.
Our Call: 31-20 for Michigan State.
Result: ??

Academy Sports + Outdoors Texas Bowl
Oklahoma State (18) vs. Texas A&M (17) at NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas
The Aggies were favored over the Cowboys by 3 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 51.5 points.
Our Call: 31-30 for Texas A&M.
Result: ??

San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl
USC (16) vs. Iowa (19) at SDCCU Stadium, San Diego, California
The Hawkeyes were favored over the Trojans by 3 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 54 points.
Our Call: 30-27 for USC.
Result: ??

Cheez-It Bowl
Air Force (59) vs. Washington State (45) at Chase Field, Phoenix, Arizona
The Falcons were favored over the Cougars by 2.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 66 points.
Our Call: 37-34 for Washington State.
Result: ??

Saturday, December 28, 2019

Camping World Bowl
Notre Dame (15) vs. Iowa State (20) at Camping World Stadium, Orlando, Florida
The Fighting Irish were favored over the Cyclones by 5.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 56.5 points.
Our Call: 33-30 for Notre Dame.
Result: ??

Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
Penn State (14) vs. Memphis (21) at AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
The Nittany Lions were favored over the Tigers by 7 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 59 points.
Our Call: 31-23 for Penn State.
Result: ??

The subsequent two games show Playoff Committee Rankings in parentheses. We ourselves favor an LSU ranking as Number One over the Buckeyes, but our system gives Ohio State the nod by a narrow margin. Our stats rank Oklahoma 3rd and Clemson 5th (with Oklahoma, not in the playoffs, as 4th, whereby the Tua injury surely played a role in Alabama not making the playoffs this year). Clemson has the best raw yards per play stats, but against weak opposition. The game against Ohio State will show us more.

College Playoff Semifinal Game 1 Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Oklahoma (4) vs. LSU (1) at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia
The Tigers were favored over the Sooners by 10 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 77.5 points.
Our Call: 49-38 for LSU. This is a great matchup involving two of the best college quarterbacks, Joe Burrow of LSU and Jalen Hurts of Oklahoma, both, together with Ohio State's QB Justin Fields and Buckeyes' defensive end Chase Young, candidates for the Heisman Trophy to be awarded December 14, with Burrow the heavy favorite. Cfbstats.com tells us that LSU and Oklahoma are ranked 1st and 2nd in FBS total offense this season, followed by Clemson, UCF and Ohio State. LSU in our FBS 2019 rankings has an adjusted AYPP (adjusted yards per play) rating of (plus) +2.69 while Oklahoma has an AYPP of (plus) +2.47, a difference of 0.22 rating points which we multiply by 10 and then equate to a difference of 2.2 scoreboard points. The ypp stats for both teams total 26.27 = 4.27 more than the standard 2 x 11.00 = 22.00 ypp total for both teams, which reflects a total score of 55 scoreboard points. Dividing that 4.27 difference by 2 we get 2.14 x 10 = 21.4 points more than are expected beyond 55 scoreboard points as the standard for 22.00 ypp, so that 55 + 21.4 = 76.4 points as our statistically prognosticated over/under (total score).
Result: ??

College Playoff Semifinal Game 2 PlayStation Fiesta Bowl
Clemson (3) vs. Ohio State (2) at State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Arizona
The Tigers were favored over the Buckeyes by 2 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 62.5 points.
Our Call: 30-27 for Ohio State. Both teams have exceptional credentials. Clemson is the incumbent champion, but the team
lost several top players to graduation and has faced a relatively easy schedule this year. Ohio State has been seen by some to be one of the great college football teams of all time, but lost adherents to the claim of greatness by trailing Wisconsin 21-7 at halftime last week. Ohio State in our FBS 2019 rankings has an adjusted AYPP (adjusted yards per play) rating of (plus) +2.94 while Clemson has an AYPP of (plus) +1.81, a difference of 1.13 rating points which we multiply by 10 and then equate to a difference of 11.3 scoreboard points. If we ignore schedule difficulty, Ohio State and Clemson have the best yards per play defenses in FBS. The ypp stats for both teams total 22.42 = 0.42 more than the standard 2 x 11.00 = 22.00 ypp total for both teams, which reflects a total score of 55 scoreboard points. Dividing that 0.42 difference by 2 we get 0.21 x 10 = 2.1 points more than are expected beyond 55 scoreboard points as the standard for 22.00 ypp, so that 55 + 2.1 = 57.1 points as our statistically prognosticated over/under (total score).
Result ??

Monday, December 30, 2019

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Western Kentucky (80) vs. Western Michigan (102) at Gerald J. Ford Stadium, Dallas, Texas
The Hilltoppers were favored over the Broncos by 2.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 54 points.
Our Call: 31-24 for Western Kentucky. .
Result: ??

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl
Mississippi State (36) vs. Louisville (54) at Nissan Stadium, Nashville, Tennessee
The Bulldogs were favored over the Cardinals by 3.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 60.5 points.
Our Call: 38-33 for Mississippi State. Louisville has thrived under the first-year tenure of head football coach Scott Satterfield, formerly of Appalachian State, for which he has been selected ACC Coach of the Year.
Result: ??

Redbox Bowl
California (57) vs. Illinois (66) at Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California
The Golden Bears were favored over the Fighting Illini by 6.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 42.5 points.
Our Call: 27-24 for Cal.
Result: ??

Capital One Orange Bowl
Florida (10) vs. Virginia (42) at Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida
The Gators were favored over the Cavaliers by 14.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 53.5 points.
Our Call: 31-20 for Florida.
Result: ??

Tuesday, December 31, 2019

Belk Bowl
Virginia Tech (49) vs. Kentucky (41) at Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina
The Wildcats were favored over the Hokies by 2 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 51 points.
Our Call: 30-27 for Kentucky.
Result: ??

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Florida State (48) vs. Arizona State (32) at Sun Bowl Stadium, El Paso, Texas
The Sun Devils were favored over the Seminoles by 3 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 55 points.
Our Call: 31-27 for Arizona State.
Result: ??

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Navy (30) vs. Kansas State (31) at Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium, Memphis, Tennessee
The Wildcats were favored over the Midshipmen by 2.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 51 points.
Our Call: 27-26 for Kansas State. This game looks like a toss-up. Navy leads the nation in rushing offense per se and is 5th in ypp at 5.98 ypp, just behind Oklahoma in 4th place at 6.08, a team that Kansas State beat 48-41, allowing only 102 rushing yards on 26 carries. On the other hand, Oklahoma State rushed for 373 yards on 44 carries to beat the Wildcats 26-13. The highest-ranked team beaten by Navy is SMU, 40th.
Result: ??

NOVA Home Loans Arizona Bowl
Wyoming (71) vs. Georgia State (109) at Arizona Stadium, Tucson, Arizona
The Cowboys were favored over the Panthers by 7.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 49.5 points.
Our Call: 35-24 for Wyoming.
Result: ??

Valero Alamo Bowl
Utah (11) vs. Texas (24) at Alamodome, San Antonio, Texas
The Utes were favored over the Longhorns by 6 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 54 points.
Our Call: 34-24 for Utah.
Result: ??

Wednesday, January 1, 2020

Vrbo Citrus Bowl
Michigan (8) vs. Alabama (4) at Camping World Stadium, Orlando, Florida
The Crimson Tide were favored over the Wolverines by 7 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 57 points.
Our Call: 34-24 for Alabama.
Result: ??

Outback Bowl
Minnesota (22) vs. Auburn (12) at Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida
The Tigers were favored over the Golden Gophers by 10 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 51.5 points.
Our Call: 31-20 for Auburn.
Result: ??

Rose Bowl Game presented by Northwestern Mutual
Oregon (9) vs. Wisconsin (7) at the Rose Bowl, Pasadena, California
The Badgers were favored over the Ducks by 1.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 48.5 points.
Our Call: 27-24 for Wisconsin. Utah is coming off an impressive 37-15 win over Utah while Wisconsin looked good in part while leading Ohio State 21-7 at halftime in losing ultimately 34-21.
Result: ??

Allstate Sugar Bowl
Georgia (6) vs. Baylor (13)
at Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana
The Dawgs were favored over the Bears by 7 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 41.5 points.
Our Call: 30-27 for Georgia.
Result: ??

Thursday, January 2, 2020

TicketSmarter Birmingham Bowl
Boston College (76) vs. Cincinnati (23) at Legion Field, Birmingham, Alabama
The Bearcats were favored over the Eagles by 6.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 55 points.
Our Call: 34-23 for Cincinnati.
Result: ??

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
Indiana (43) vs. Tennessee (28) at TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, Florida
The game was seen as even. Take your pick.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 51.5 points.
Our Call: 30-26 for Tennessee.
Result: ??

Friday, January 3, 2020

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Ohio (98) vs. Nevada (88) at Albertsons Stadium, Boise, Idaho
The Bobcats were favored over the Wolf Pack by 6 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 54 points.
Our Call: 31-30 for Nevada.
Result: ??

Saturday, January 4, 2020

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Southern Mississippi (91) vs. Tulane (53) at Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, Texas
The Green Wave were favored over the Golden Eagles by 7 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 57.5 points.
Our Call: 34-24 for Tulane.
Result: ??

Monday, January 6, 2020

LendingTree Bowl
Louisiana-Lafayette (39) vs. Miami of Ohio (97) at Ladd-Peebles Stadium, Mobile, Alabama
The Ragin' Cajuns were favored over the RedHawks by 13.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 56 points.
Our Call: 34-20 for Louisiana.
Result: ??

Monday, January 13, 2020

College Playoff Championship Game
?? vs. ?? at Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana
The ?? were favored over the ?? by ?? points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was ?? points.
Our Call: ?? for ??.
Result: ??

Sunday, December 08, 2019

SportPundit NCAA Division I FBS College Football Rankings 2019 After Week 15

SportPundit NCAA Division I FBS College Football Rankings 2019 After Week 15

YPP stats from cfbstats.com 
Schedule Difficulty (SD) is based on the Massey Ratings
-- but in some cases we have adjusted them and marked those by an asterisk *
(* = adjusted).
Schedule Difficulty stats are rough approximations - just compare the ColleyMatrix to see how much they can diverge.
NAYPPA = Net Average Yards Per Play Advantage - Calculation by SportPundit.
AYPP = Adjusted Yards Per Play. The "calculation of rank" is made by taking NAYPPA minus the "calibration adjustment for schedule difficulty" CSD (3 x SD divided by 100). We do all calculations in our head, which can be done swiftly, but there may be error as a result of doing things too fast, so we make no guarantees as to accuracy.
The system is not perfect! But it gives a good idea of the relative strengths of many of the teams without looking at the margin of victory or won-loss records against varied opposition and under various circumstances. Some placements are curious, but on the whole, the rankings can be quite useful.

SportPundit NCAA Division I FBS College Football Rankings 2019 after Week 15
(the rank is determined by the AYPP, the adjusted yards per play rating).

Rank Team Ypp Off Ypp Def NAYPPA    SD   CSD  AYPP W-L
1 Ohio State 7.02 3.93 +3.09    5 -0.15 +2.94 13-0
2 LSU 7.79 5.04 +2.75    2 -0.06 +2.69 13-0
3 Oklahoma 8.15 5.29 +2.86    13 -0.39 +2.47 12-1
4 Alabama 7.83 4.80 +3.03   22 -0.66 +2.37 10-2
5 Clemson 7.51 3.96 +3.55    58 -1.74 +1.81 13-0
6 Georgia 6.13 4.34 +1.79    6 -0.18 +1.61 11-2
7 Wisconsin 6.45 4.84 +1.61    3 -0.09 +1.52 10-3
8 Michigan 5.85 4.44 +1.41    4 -0.12 +1.29 9-3
9 Oregon 6.47 4.76 +1.71    16 -0.48 +1.23 10-2
10 Florida 6.37 4.80 +1.57  12 -0.36 +1.21 10-2
11 Utah 6.75 4.40 +2.35    39 -1.17 +1.18 11-2
12 Auburn 5.65 4.68 +0.97      1 -0.00 +0.97 9-3
13 Baylor 6.44 4.85 +1.59  27 -0.81 +0.78 11-2
14 Penn State 5.94 4.67 +1.27    19 -0.57 +0.70 10-2
15 Notre Dame 6.25 4.68 +1.57    30 -0.90 +0.67 10-2
Rank Team Ypp Off Ypp Def NAYPPA    SD   CSD  AYPP W-L
16 USC 6.61 5.74 +0.87 15 -0.45 +0.42 8-4
17 Texas A&M 5.83 5.22 +0.61      9 -0.27 +0.34 7-5
18 Oklahoma St. 6.44 5.79 +0.65    17 -0.51 +0.14 8-4
19 Iowa 5.54 4.75 +0.79    25 -0.75 +0.04 9-3
20 Iowa State 6.58 5.23 +1.35  *45 -1.35 +0.00 7-5
21 Memphis 6.90 5.23 +1.67     *57 -1.71 -0.04 12-1
22 Minnesota 6.34 5.11 +1.23     44 -1.32 -0.09 10-2
23 Cincinnati 5.55 5.21 +0.34    *15 -0.45 -0.11 10-3
24 Texas 6.28 6.24  -0.04      7 -0.21 -0.25 7-5
25 Washington 5.85 5.26 +0.59    *29 -0.87 -0.28 7-5
26 TCU 5.51 5.37 +0.14     *19 -0.57 -0.43 5-7
27 Boise State 6.15 5.23 +0.92  *45 -1.35 -0.43 12-1
28 Tennessee 5.82 5.04 +0.78     41 -1.23 -0.45 7-5
29 Appalachian St. 6.26 5.00 +1.26   *57 -1.71 -0.45 12-1
30 Navy 6.74 5.51 +1.23     *57 -1.71 -0.48 9-2
Rank Team Ypp Off Ypp Def NAYPPA    SD   CSD  AYPP W-L
31 Kansas State 5.62 6.13  -0.51     **0 -0.00 -0.51 8-4
32 Arizona State 5.86 5.48 +0.38  *30 -0.90 -0.52 7-5
33 North Carolina 6.37 5.54  +0.83      *45 -1.35 -0.52 6-6
34 South Carolina 5.18 5.53 -0.35      *6 -0.18 -0.53 4-8
35 Michigan State 5.09 4.95 +0.14      25 -0.75 -0.61 6-6
36 Mississippi State 6.18 6.20  -0.02     *20 -0.60 -0.62 6-6
37 UCF 6.86 4.52 +2.34    *100 -3.00 -0.66 9-3
38 Mississippi 6.00 5.82 +0.18   29 -0.87 -0.69 4-8
39 Louisiana-Laf. 7.03 5.47 +1.56 *75 -2.25 -0.69 10-3
40 SMU 6.24 5.72 +0.52   *41 -1.23 -0.71 10-2
41 Kentucky 6.17 5.21  +0.96   56 -1.68 -0.72 7-5
42 Virginia 5.68 5.27 +0.41     *40 -1.20 -0.79 8-3
43 Indiana 6.08 5.36 +0.72     52 -1.56 -0.84 8-4
44 Nebraska 5.76 5.61 +0.15   36 -1.08 -0.93 5-7
45 Washington St. 7.13 6.81 +0.32     42 -1.26 -0.94 6-6
Rank Team Ypp Off Ypp Def NAYPPA    SD   CSD  AYPP W-L
46 Miami of Florida 5.81 4.73 +1.08     70 -2.10 -1.02 6-6
47 Missouri 5.27 4.86 +0.41    48 -1.44 -1.03 6-6
48 Florida State 5.84 5.37 +0.47   50 -1.50 -1.03 6-6
49 Virginia Tech 5.65 5.20 +0.45   *50 -1.50 -1.05 8-4
50 West Virginia 4.90 5.48  -0.58     *16 -0.48 -1.06 5-7
51 Temple 5.45 4.75 +0.70   *60 -1.80 -1.10 8-4
52 Pittsburgh 5.07 4.44 +0.63    58 -1.74 -1.11 7-5
53 Tulane 6.19 5.51 +0.68    *60 -1.80 -1.12 6-6
54 Louisville 6.62 6.37 +0.25     47 -1.41 -1.16 7-5
55 Stanford 5.59 6.30  -0.71       15  -0.45 -1.16 4-8
56 Oregon State 5.95 6.05  -0.10     *36 -1.08 -1.18 5-7
57 California 5.01 5.33  -0.32     *29 -0.87 -1.19 7-5
58 Kansas 5.86 6.15 -0.29     31 -0.93 -1.22 3-9
59 Air Force 6.35 5.40 +0.95     77 -2.31 -1.36 10-2
60 Arizona 6.05 6.36 -0.31     *35 -1.05 -1.36 4-8
Rank Team Ypp Off Ypp Def NAYPPA    SD   CSD  AYPP W-L
61 UCLA 5.31 6.71  -1.40       *1 -0.00 -1.40 4-8
62 Hawaii 6.69 6.29 +0.40     *60 -1.80 -1.40 9-5
63 San Diego State 4.61 4.64 -0.03   *49 -1.47 -1.44 9-3
64 BYU 6.18 5.50  +0.68     71 -2.13 -1.45 7-5
65 Texas Tech 6.09 6.59 -0.50     32 -0.96 -1.46 4-8
66 Illinois 4.91 5.58  -0.51   *32 -0.96 -1.47 6-6
67 Tulsa 5.32 5.67  -0.35   39 -1.17 -1.52 4-8
68 Utah State 5.76 5.55 +0.21     *58 -1.74 -1.53 7-5
69 Colorado 5.50 6.51  -1.01     21 -0.63 -1.64 5-7
70 Purdue 5.47 6.02  -0.55     37 -1.11 -1.66 4-8
71 Wyoming 5.33 4.99 +0.34     *70 -2.10 -1.76 7-5
72 Marshall 5.82 5.35 +0.47   *79 -2.37 -1.90 8-4
73 Florida Atlantic 5.94 5.38  +0.56   *82 -2.46 -1.90 10-3
74 Maryland 5.37 5.95 -0.48     48 -1.44 -1.92 3-9
75 Wake Forest 5.77 5.74 +0.03   *67 -2.01 -1.98 8-4
Rank Team Ypp Off Ypp Def NAYPPA    SD   CSD  AYPP W-L
76 Boston College 5.91 6.46  -0.55   *49 -1.47 -2.02 6-6
77 Northwestern 4.23 5.06  -0.83     40 -1.20 -2.03 3-9
78 Fresno State 6.04 5.73 +0.31     78 -2.34 -2.03 4-8
79 Syracuse 5.21 6.07  -0.86   *40 -1.20 -2.06 5-7
80 Western Kentucky 5.56 5.28 +0.28   *80 -2.40 -2.12 8-4
81 Colorado St. 6.24 5.58 +0.66 94 -2.82 -2.164-8
82 Georgia Tech 4.79 5.83  -1.04   *40 -1.20 -2.24 3-9
83 UAB 5.53 4.59 +0.94   *106 -3.18 -2.24 9-4
84 Central Michigan 6.15 5.30 +0.85 *104 -3.12 -2.27 8-4
85 Houston 6.02 6.81  -0.79     50 -1.50 -2.29 4-8
86 San Jose State 6.36 5.80 +0.56   *95 -2.85 -2.29 5-7
87 Louisiana Tech 6.18 5.33 +0.85   *105 -3.15 -2.30 9-3
88 Nevada 4.92 6.04  -1.12   *40 -1.20 -2.32 7-5
89 South Florida 5.14 5.39 -0.25 69 -2.07 -2.32 4-8
90 Duke 4.53 5.35 -0.82     51 -1.53 -2.35 5-7
Rank Team Ypp Off Ypp Def NAYPPA    SD   CSD  AYPP W-L
91 Southern Miss 6.13 5.70 +0.43     *95 -2.85 -2.42 7-5
92 Arkansas State 6.20 6.12  +0.08     85 -2.55 -2.47 7-5
93 Arkansas 5.21 6.54 -1.33     *39 -1.17 -2.50 2-10
94 Liberty 6.52 5.89 +0.63   *105 -3.15 -2.52 7-5
95 Georgia Southern 5.31 5.67  -0.46   *70 -2.10 -2.64 7-5
96 NC State 5.18 5.59 -0.41     *75 -2.25 -2.66 4-8
97 Miami of Ohio 4.96 5.18  -0.22     82 -2.46 -2.68 8-5
98 Ohio 6.70 5.93  +0.77   *115 -3.45 -2.68 6-6
99 Vanderbilt 4.78 6.57  -1.79   *30 -0.90 -2.69 3-9
100 Kent State 5.75 6.31  -0.56   *71 -2.13 -2.69 6-6
101 Buffalo 5.46 4.85 +0.61   *110 -3.30 -2.69 7-5
 102 Western Michigan 6.46 5.84 +0.62     *111 -3.33 -2.71 7-5
103 Charlotte 6.40 6.14 +0.26   *100 -3.00 -2.74 7-5
104 Ball State 6.11 5.82 +0.29   *101 -3.03 -2.74 5-7
105 Louisiana Monroe 6.37 6.71  -0.34     *80 -2.40 -2.74 5-7
Rank Team Ypp Off Ypp Def NAYPPA    SD   CSD  AYPP W-L
106 Florida Int'l FIU 5.55 5.63  -0.08   *90 -2.70 -2.78 6-6
107 Eastern Michigan 6.07 6.02  +0.05   *95 -2.85 -2.80 6-6
108 Middle Tennessee 6.36 6.21  +0.15     *101 -3.00 -2.85 4-8
109 Georgia State 5.85 6.64  -0.79   *70 -2.10 -2.89 7-5
110 Northern Illinois 5.22 6.08  -0.86     *70 -2.10 -2.96 5-7
111 Toledo 6.09 6.62 -0.53   *80 -2.40 -2.976-6
112 North Texas 5.92 5.73 +0.19   *110 -3.30 -3.11 4-8
113 Troy 6.13 6.20  -0.07   105 -3.15 -3.22 5-7
114 Coastal Carolina 5.53 6.05 -0.52   *90 -2.70 -3.22 5-7
115 Army 5.86 5.53  +0.33 *120 -3.60 -3.27 5-7
116 Texas State 4.97 5.72  -0.75   90 -2.70 -3.45 3-9
117 East Carolina 5.74 6.52  -0.78 *90 -2.70 -3.48 4-8
118 UNLV 5.41 6.26  -0.85     90 -2.70 -3.55 4-8
119 Rutgers 4.46 6.22  -1.76     61 -1.83 -3.64 2-10
120 South Alabama 5.01 5.77  -0.76   *100 -3.00 -3.76 2-10
Rank Team Ypp Off Ypp Def NAYPPA    SD   CSD  AYPP W-L
121 UTSA 5.05 6.53  -1.48   *80 -2.40 -3.88 4-8
122 New Mexico 5.77 6.71  -0.94 *98 -2.94 -3.88 2-10
123 Rice 4.69 5.97  -1.28     *90 -2.70 -3.98 3-9
124 New Mexico State 5.21 6.58  -1.37     *100 -3.00 -4.37 2-10
125 Bowling Green 4.56 7.03  -2.47   *80 -2.40 -4.87 3-9
126 Connecticut 5.11 7.00  -1.89   *100 -3.15 -4.89 2-10
127 Old Dominion 4.06 5.66  -1.60 *110 -3.30 -4.90 1-11
128 UTEP 5.14 6.76  -1.62 *110 -3.30 -4.92 1-11
129 Massachusetts 4.28 7.77  -3.49   *120 -3.60 -4.99 1-11
130 Akron 4.02 5.70  -1.68 *111 -3.33 -4.99 0-12
Rank Team Ypp Off Ypp Def NAYPPA    SD   CSD  AYPP W-L


SportPundit College Football Prediction Results for Week 15 2019 FBS Season

College Football Prediction Results for Week 15 2019 FBS Season

We finished Week 15 of the 2019 FBS college football season as follows:
8-2 in calling the winner
5-5 against the spread, and
4-6 against the over/under.


Our cumulative FBS prognostication record for 2019 after Week 15 stands at:
637-208 in calling the winner (75%)
424-406-15 against the spread, and
416-407-11 against the over/under ("total").


If possible, we compete against the quoted opening odds ("the line", "the spread") as available online (e.g. Vegas Insider, OddsShark, Sportsline, 5Dimes, CFPT), and which can vary, so we have no fixed system of which portals we use. We do our predictions for fun and we are not affiliated with any service or institution. However, if online services differ as to the opening line, we try to pick "half odds" so as to avoid ties with the line. This can be an updated line.

Caveat Emptor! Please do not use our predictions for wagering. We disclaim any and all liability for anyone's use of our materials and prognostications, nor do we make any warranties as to accuracy. Our prognostication hobby helps us to keep track of news and sports all over America. We are not in this for the money. May the best team win.

Our prognostications here are based on our own rankings of all FBS football teams, as made after the 14th week of play. Our ranking for each team is given in parentheses next to the team name.


Friday, December 6, 2019

Utah (8) vs. Oregon (11) at Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California
The Utes were favored over the Ducks by 6.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 50.5 points.
Our Call: 27-23 for Utah. Utah in our FBS 2019 rankings has an adjusted AYPP (adjusted yards per play) rating of (plus) +1.42 while Oregon has an AYPP of (plus) +1.01, a difference of 0.41 rating points which we multiply by 10 and then equate to a difference of 4.1 scoreboard points. In calculating over/under, i.e. total score, we take as a standard (unless we adjust for something else subjectively, e.g. like a quarterback change) that a total of 11.00 yards per play in a game by each team, offense AND defense, corresponds to 55 total scoreboard points. Using that system we get a total of ca. 56 scoreboard points here as our prognostication for total score for the over/under. Subjectively, we feel that fewer points might be scored in conference championships and that defenses rise to the occasion so we will deduct 6 points from our statistical result of 30-26 and prognosticate a final score of 27-23.
Result: Oregon blitzed Utah 37-15 as Oregon's CJ Verdell scored on runs of 70 and 31 yards in the last half of the fourth quarter while Utah went scoreless in the last stanza. Oregon shows with the win why a more expanded playoff system is necessary, as teams develop over the course of the season and may be in top form at season's end, even if they lost a close one early in the year.
For Week 15 of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
0-1 in calling the winner
1-0 against the spread, and
0-1 against the over/under.


Saturday, December 7, 2019

Baylor (15) vs. Oklahoma (3) at AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
The Sooners were favored over the Bears by 9.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 63.5 points.
Our Call: 41-23 for Oklahoma. Oklahoma in our FBS 2019 rankings has an adjusted AYPP (adjusted yards per play) rating of (plus) +2.43 while Baylor has an AYPP of (plus) +0.62, a difference of 1.81 rating points which we multiply by 10 and then equate to a difference of 18.1 scoreboard points. The ypp stats for both teams total 25.02 = 3.02 more than the standard 2 x 11.00. Dividing 3.02 by 2 we get 1.51 x 10 = 15.1 points more that are expected beyond 55 = 70. Oklahoma had its greatest comeback ever to beat Baylor 34-31 in the regular season. Subjectively, we feel that fewer points might be scored in conference championships and that defenses rise to the occasion so we will deduct 6 points from our statistical result of 44-26 and prognosticate a final score of 41-23.
Result: Oklahoma beat Baylor in overtime 30-23, outgaining the Bears 433 to 265 yards but giving up two turnovers.
For Week 15 of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
1-1 in calling the winner
1-1 against the spread, and
0-2 against the over/under.


Louisiana-Lafayette (39) vs. Appalachian State (29) at Kidd Brewer Stadium, Boone, North Carolina
The Mountaineers were favored over the Ragin' Cajuns by 5.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 57.5 points.
Our Call: 30-27 for Appalachian State. Appalachian State in our FBS 2019 rankings has an adjusted AYPP (adjusted yards per play) rating of (minus) -0.44 while Louisiana-Lafayette has an AYPP of (minus) -0.70, a difference of 0.26 rating points which we multiply by 10 and then equate to a difference of 2.6 scoreboard points. Subjectively, we feel that fewer points might be scored in conference championships and that defenses rise to the occasion so we will deduct 6 points from our statistical result of 33-30 and prognosticate a final score of 30-27.
Result: After leading 35-14 in the 2nd quarter and 35-17 at halftime Appalachian State held on to beat Louisiana 45-38.
For Week 15 of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
2-1 in calling the winner
1-2 against the spread, and
0-3 against the over/under.


Miami of Ohio (97) vs. Central Michigan (84) at Ford Field, Detroit, Michigan
The Chippewas were favored over the RedHawks by 4.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 53 points.
Our Call: 27-23 for Central Michigan. Central Michigan in our FBS 2019 rankings has an adjusted AYPP (adjusted yards per play) rating of (minus) -2.27 while Miami of Ohio has an AYPP of (minus) -2.67, a difference of 0.40 rating points which we multiply by 10 and then equate to a difference of 4.0 scoreboard points. Subjectively, we feel that fewer points might be scored in conference championships and that defenses rise to the occasion so we will deduct 4 points from our statistical result of 29-25 and prognosticate a final score of 27-23.
Result: Miami of Ohio edged Central Michigan 26-21, as the Chippewas outgained the RedHawks 355 to 272 yards but lost the scoreboard battle.
For Week 15 of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
2-2 in calling the winner
2-2 against the spread, and
1-3 against the over/under.


UAB Alabama-Birmingham (83) vs. FAU Florida Atlantic (73) at FAU Stadium, Boca Raton, Florida
The Owls were favored over the Blazers by 6.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 49.5 points.
Our Call: 27-24 for FAU. Florida Atlantic in our FBS 2019 rankings has an adjusted AYPP (adjusted yards per play) rating of (minus) -1.92 while UAB has an AYPP of (minus) -2.24, a difference of 0.32 rating points which we multiply by 10 and then equate to a difference of 3.2 scoreboard points. The statistical result gives a nice score so we stick with it here.
Result: FAU won 49-6.
For Week 15 of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
3-2 in calling the winner
2-3 against the spread, and
2-3 against the over/under.


Cincinnati (23) vs. Memphis (21) at Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium, Memphis, Tennessee
The Tigers were favored over the Bearcats by 10.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 58.5 points.
Our Call: 27-26 for Memphis. Memphis in our FBS 2019 rankings has an adjusted AYPP (adjusted yards per play) rating of (minus) -0.07 while Cincinnati has an AYPP of (minus) -0.14, a difference of 0.07 rating points which we multiply by 10 and then equate to a difference of 0.7 scoreboard points, i.e. less than 1 point. Memphis beat Cincinnati 34-24 in the last regular season game for both teams this season, in which the Tigers won the turnover contest 3 to 1. Subjectively, we feel that fewer points might be scored in conference championships and that defenses rise to the occasion so we will deduct 6 points from our statistical result of 30-29 and prognosticate a final score of 27-26.
Result: Memphis won 29-24.
For Week 15 of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
4-2 in calling the winner
3-3 against the spread, and
3-3 against the over/under.


Hawaii (62) vs. Boise State (27) at Albertsons Stadium, Boise, Idaho
The Broncos were favored over the Warriors by 14.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 62.5 points.
Our Call: 37-27 for Boise State. Boise State in our FBS 2019 rankings has an adjusted AYPP (adjusted yards per play) rating of (minus) -0.38 while Hawai'i has an AYPP of (minus) -1.40, a difference of 1.02 rating points which we multiply by 10 and then equate to a difference of 10.2 scoreboard points. Subjectively, we feel that fewer points might be scored in conference championships and that defenses rise to the occasion so we will deduct 4 points from our statistical result of 39-29 and prognosticate a final score of 37-27.
Result: Boise State won 31-10.
For Week 15 of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
5-2 in calling the winner
3-4 against the spread, and
3-4 against the over/under.


Georgia (6) vs. LSU (2) at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia
The Tigers were favored over the Dawgs by 6 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 57 points.
Our Call: 34-24 for LSU. Louisiana State in our FBS 2019 rankings has an adjusted AYPP (adjusted yards per play) rating of (plus) +2.70 while Georgia has an AYPP of (plus) +1.63, a difference of 1.07 rating points which we multiply by 10 and then equate to a difference of 10.7 scoreboard points. Subjectively, we feel that fewer points might be scored in conference championships and that defenses rise to the occasion so we will deduct 4 points from our statistical result of 36-26 and prognosticate a final score of 34-24.
Result: LSU won 37-10.
For Week 15 of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
6-2 in calling the winner
4-4 against the spread, and
3-5 against the over/under.


Virginia (42) vs. Clemson (5) at Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina
The Tigers were favored over the Cavaliers by 24.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 53.5 points.
Our Call: 41-16 for Clemson. Clemson in our FBS 2019 rankings has an adjusted AYPP (adjusted yards per play) rating of (plus) +1.71 while Virginia has an AYPP of (minus) -0.79, a difference of 2.50 rating points which we multiply by 10 and then equate to a difference of 25 scoreboard points. A lot of points were scored in the Virginia vs. Virginia Tech game so we stick with an "over" total.
Result: Clemson won 62-17.
For Week 15 of the 2019 FBS college football season we are thus far:
7-2 in calling the winner
5-4 against the spread, and
4-5 against the over/under.


Ohio State (1) vs. Wisconsin (7) at Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Indiana
The Buckeyes were favored over the Badgers by 16.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 54 points.
Our Call: 34-17 for Ohio State. Ohio State in our FBS 2019 rankings has an adjusted AYPP (adjusted yards per play) rating of (plus) +3.17 while Wisconsin has an AYPP of (plus) +1.44, a difference of 1.73 rating points which we multiply by 10 and then equate to a difference of 17.3 scoreboard points. Subjectively, we feel that fewer points might be scored in conference championships and that defenses rise to the occasion so we will deduct 4 points from our statistical result of 36-19 and prognosticate a final score of 34-17. The Buckeyes beat the Badgers 38-7 in the regular season.
Result: Ohio State rallied from a 21-7 halftime deficit to win 34-21. The poor first half performance will likely cost the Buckeyes the Nr. 1 playoffs seed to LSU, who convincingly beat Georgia.
We thus finished Week 15 of the 2019 FBS college football season as follows:
8-2 in calling the winner
5-5 against the spread, and
4-6 against the over/under.