"Where there is no vision, the people perish: but he that keepeth the law, happy is he."
-- Proverbs 29:18, King James Bible (KJV)

Thursday, December 05, 2019

SportPundit College Football Predictions for Week 15 2019 FBS Season

SportPundit College Football Predictions for Week 15 2019 FBS Season

This is the week of college football conference championship games.

Our cumulative FBS prognostication record for 2019 after Week 14 stands at:
629-206 in calling the winner (75%)
419-401-15 against the spread, and
412-401-11 against the over/under ("total").


If possible, we compete against the quoted opening odds ("the line", "the spread") as available online (e.g. Vegas Insider, OddsShark, Sportsline, 5Dimes, CFPT), and which can vary, so we have no fixed system of which portals we use. We do our predictions for fun and we are not affiliated with any service or institution. However, if online services differ as to the opening line, we try to pick "half odds" so as to avoid ties with the line. This can be an updated line.

Caveat Emptor! Please do not use our predictions for wagering. We disclaim any and all liability for anyone's use of our materials and prognostications, nor do we make any warranties as to accuracy. Our prognostication hobby helps us to keep track of news and sports all over America. We are not in this for the money. May the best team win.

Our prognostications here are based on our own rankings of all FBS football teams, as made after the 14th week of play. Our ranking for each team is given in parentheses next to the team name.


Friday, December 6, 2019

Utah (8) vs. Oregon (11) at Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California
The Utes were favored over the Ducks by 6.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 50.5 points.
Our Call: 27-23 for Utah. Utah in our FBS 2019 rankings has an adjusted AYPP (adjusted yards per play) rating of (plus) +1.42 while Oregon has an AYPP of (plus) +1.01, a difference of 0.41 rating points which we multiply by 10 and then equate to a difference of 4.1 scoreboard points. In calculating over/under, i.e. total score, we take as a standard (unless we adjust for something else subjectively, e.g. like a quarterback change) that a total of 11.00 yards per play in a game by each team, offense AND defense, corresponds to 55 total scoreboard points. Using that system we get a total of ca. 56 scoreboard points here as our prognostication for total score for the over/under. Subjectively, we feel that fewer points might be scored in conference championships and that defenses rise to the occasion so we will deduct 6 points from our statistical result of 30-26 and prognosticate a final score of 27-23.
Result: ??

Saturday, December 7, 2019

Baylor (15) vs. Oklahoma (3) at AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
The Sooners were favored over the Bears by 9.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 63.5 points.
Our Call: 41-23 for Oklahoma. Oklahoma in our FBS 2019 rankings has an adjusted AYPP (adjusted yards per play) rating of (plus) +2.43 while Baylor has an AYPP of (plus) +0.62, a difference of 1.81 rating points which we multiply by 10 and then equate to a difference of 18.1 scoreboard points. The ypp stats for both teams total 25.02 = 3.02 more than the standard 2 x 11.00. Dividing 3.02 by 2 we get 1.51 x 10 = 15.1 points more that are expected beyond 55 = 70. Oklahoma had its greatest comeback ever to beat Baylor 34-31 in the regular season. Subjectively, we feel that fewer points might be scored in conference championships and that defenses rise to the occasion so we will deduct 6 points from our statistical result of 44-26 and prognosticate a final score of 41-23.
Result: ??

Louisiana-Lafayette (39) vs. Appalachian State (29) at Kidd Brewer Stadium, Boone, North Carolina
The Mountaineers were favored over the Ragin' Cajuns by 5.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 57.5 points.
Our Call: 30-27 for Appalachian State. Appalachian State in our FBS 2019 rankings has an adjusted AYPP (adjusted yards per play) rating of (minus) -0.44 while Louisiana-Lafayette has an AYPP of (minus) -0.70, a difference of 0.26 rating points which we multiply by 10 and then equate to a difference of 2.6 scoreboard points. Subjectively, we feel that fewer points might be scored in conference championships and that defenses rise to the occasion so we will deduct 6 points from our statistical result of 33-30 and prognosticate a final score of 30-27.
Result: ??

Miami of Ohio (97) vs. Central Michigan (84) at Ford Field, Detroit, Michigan
The Chippewas were favored over the RedHawks by 4.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 53 points.
Our Call: 27-23 for Central Michigan. Central Michigan in our FBS 2019 rankings has an adjusted AYPP (adjusted yards per play) rating of (minus) -2.27 while Miami of Ohio has an AYPP of (minus) -2.67, a difference of 0.40 rating points which we multiply by 10 and then equate to a difference of 4.0 scoreboard points. Subjectively, we feel that fewer points might be scored in conference championships and that defenses rise to the occasion so we will deduct 4 points from our statistical result of 29-25 and prognosticate a final score of 27-23.
Result: ??

UAB Alabama-Birmingham (83) vs. FAU Florida Atlantic (73) at FAU Stadium, Boca Raton, Florida
The Owls were favored over the Blazers by 6.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 49.5 points.
Our Call: 27-24 for FAU. Florida Atlantic in our FBS 2019 rankings has an adjusted AYPP (adjusted yards per play) rating of (minus) -1.92 while UAB has an AYPP of (minus) -2.24, a difference of 0.32 rating points which we multiply by 10 and then equate to a difference of 3.2 scoreboard points. The statistical result gives a nice score so we stick with it here.
Result: ??

Cincinnati (23) vs. Memphis (21) at Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium, Memphis, Tennessee
The Tigers were favored over the Bearcats by 10.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 58.5 points.
Our Call: 27-26 for Memphis. Memphis in our FBS 2019 rankings has an adjusted AYPP (adjusted yards per play) rating of (minus) -0.07 while Cincinnati has an AYPP of (minus) -0.14, a difference of 0.07 rating points which we multiply by 10 and then equate to a difference of 0.7 scoreboard points, i.e. less than 1 point. Memphis beat Cincinnati 34-24 in the last regular season game for both teams this season, in which the Tigers won the turnover contest 3 to 1. Subjectively, we feel that fewer points might be scored in conference championships and that defenses rise to the occasion so we will deduct 6 points from our statistical result of 30-29 and prognosticate a final score of 27-26.
Result: ??

Hawaii (62) vs. Boise State (27) at Albertsons Stadium, Boise, Idaho
The Broncos were favored over the Warriors by 14.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 62.5 points.
Our Call: 37-27 for Boise State. Boise State in our FBS 2019 rankings has an adjusted AYPP (adjusted yards per play) rating of (minus) -0.38 while Hawai'i has an AYPP of (minus) -1.40, a difference of 1.02 rating points which we multiply by 10 and then equate to a difference of 10.2 scoreboard points. Subjectively, we feel that fewer points might be scored in conference championships and that defenses rise to the occasion so we will deduct 4 points from our statistical result of 39-29 and prognosticate a final score of 37-27.
Result: ??

Georgia (6) vs. LSU (2) at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia
The Tigers were favored over the Dawgs by 6 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 57 points.
Our Call: 34-24 for LSU. Louisiana State in our FBS 2019 rankings has an adjusted AYPP (adjusted yards per play) rating of (plus) +2.70 while Georgia has an AYPP of (plus) +1.63, a difference of 1.07 rating points which we multiply by 10 and then equate to a difference of 10.7 scoreboard points. Subjectively, we feel that fewer points might be scored in conference championships and that defenses rise to the occasion so we will deduct 4 points from our statistical result of 36-26 and prognosticate a final score of 34-24.
Result: ??

Virginia (42) vs. Clemson (5) at Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina
The Tigers were favored over the Cavaliers by 24.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 53.5 points.
Our Call: 41-16 for Clemson. Clemson in our FBS 2019 rankings has an adjusted AYPP (adjusted yards per play) rating of (plus) +1.71 while Virginia has an AYPP of (minus) -0.79, a difference of 2.50 rating points which we multiply by 10 and then equate to a difference of 25 scoreboard points. A lot of points were scored in the Virginia vs. Virginia Tech game so we stick with an "over" total.
Result: ??

Ohio State (1) vs. Wisconsin (7) at Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Indiana
The Buckeyes were favored over the Badgers by 16.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 54 points.
Our Call: 34-17 for Ohio State. Ohio State in our FBS 2019 rankings has an adjusted AYPP (adjusted yards per play) rating of (plus) +3.17 while Wisconsin has an AYPP of (plus) +1.44, a difference of 1.73 rating points which we multiply by 10 and then equate to a difference of 17.3 scoreboard points. Subjectively, we feel that fewer points might be scored in conference championships and that defenses rise to the occasion so we will deduct 4 points from our statistical result of 36-19 and prognosticate a final score of 34-17. The Buckeyes beat the Badgers 38-7 in the regular season.
Result: ??