"Where there is no vision, the people perish: but he that keepeth the law, happy is he."
-- Proverbs 29:18, King James Bible (KJV)

Sunday, September 29, 2019

SportPundit College Football Prediction Results for Week 5 of the 2019 NCAA Division I FBS Season

College Football Prediction Results for Week 5 of the 2019 NCAA Division I FBS Season

Caveat Emptor! Please do not use our predictions for wagering. We disclaim any and all liability for anyone's use of our materials and prognostications, nor do we make any warranties as to accuracy. Our prognostication hobby helps us to keep track of news and sports all over America. We are not in this for the money. May the best team win.

Our abbreviation "ypp" in our prognostications means
"yards per play" and not "yards per point" as at Phil Steele --- hey, we have his preview magazine -- this is no ad for Phil Steele, just a fact.

Yards per play (YPP) stats are taken from CFBstats.com.
Schedule difficulty (SD) is taken from Massey Ratings, with an eye thrown at the ColleyMatrix.
Kambour HFA "home-field advantage" for the home team is from Kambour.net, that may have updated figures, so check it out if it is important for you.
__________

We finished Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season as follows:
41-14 in calling the winner
28-26-1 against the spread, and
30-24-1 against the over/under.

Our cumulative FBS prognostication record for 2019 after Week 5 is:
277-61 in calling the winner
165-164-9 against the spread
163-169-6 against the over/under ("total").


If possible, we compete against the quoted opening odds ("the line", "the spread") as available online (e.g. Vegas Insider, OddsShark, Sportsline), and which can vary, so we have no fixed system of which portals we use. We do our predictions for fun and we are not affiliated with any service or institution.

Our predictions look to yards per play stats (cfbstats.com) on both offense and defense, schedule difficulty (Massey Ratings), and home field advantage (calculated either via Kambour (Kambour HFA), or as a standard of 3 points, it just depends). This week we again take a look at the College Football Prediction Tracker ("CFPT") which we were unable to access some weeks ago and thus removed from consideration.

Thursday, September 26, 2019
We quote the opening line, if possible, not the updated line....

Navy at Memphis
The Tigers were favored over the Midshipmen by 14 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 54.5 points.
Our Call: 31-21 for Memphis.
Result: Memphis topped Navy 35-23.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
1-0 in calling the winner
1-0 against the spread, and
0-1 against the over/under.

Friday, September 27, 2019
We quote the opening line, if possible, not the updated line....

Duke at Virginia Tech
The Hokies were favored over the Blue Devils by 7 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 53.5 points.
Our Call: 31-24 for Duke.
Result: Duke routed Virginia Tech 45-10.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
2-0 in calling the winner
2-0 against the spread, and
1-1 against the over/under.

Penn State at Maryland
The Nittany Lions were favored over the Terrapins by 8 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 58.5 points.
Our Call: 30-27 for Penn State.
Result: Whoah! Who can foresee this kind of blowout? Penn State put up 619 yards and shut out Maryland 59-0 as Nittany Lions quarterback Sean Clifford completed a road game school record 26 of 31 passes for 398 yards and 3 touchdowns. THIRTEEN different Penn State players caught at least one pass. The Nittany Lions defense held the Terps to 128 yards total offense.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
3-0 in calling the winner
2-1 against the spread, and
1-2 against the over/under.

San Jose State at Air Force
The Falcons were favored over the Spartans by 24 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 54 points.
Our Call: 35-24 for Air Force.
Result: Air Force beat the Spartans 41-24.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
4-0 in calling the winner
3-1 against the spread, and
2-2 against the over/under.

Arizona State atCalifornia
The Golden Bears were favored over the Sun Devils by 3.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 40 points.
Our Call: 24-20 for California.
Result: Arizona State topped Cal 24-17.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
4-1 in calling the winner
3-2 against the spread, and
3-2 against the over/under.

Saturday, September 28, 2019
We quote the opening line, if possible, not the updated line....

Northern Illinois NIU at Vanderbilt
The Commodores were favored over the Huskies by 7 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 51 points.
Our Call: 27-23 for Vanderbilt.
Result: Vanderbilt edged Northern Illinois 24-18.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
5-1 in calling the winner
4-2 against the spread, and
4-2 against the over/under.

Buffalo at Miami of Ohio
The Redhawks were favored over the Bulls by 5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 53 points.
Our Call: 30-24 for Buffalo.
Result: Miami surpassed Buffalo 34-20.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
5-2 in calling the winner
4-3 against the spread, and
5-2 against the over/under.

BYU at Toledo
The Cougars were favored over the Rockets by 3.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 60 points.
Our Call: 31-30 for Toledo.
Result: Toledo prevailed over BYU 28-21.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
6-2 in calling the winner
5-3 against the spread, and
5-3 against the over/under.

Central Michigan at Western Michigan
The Broncos were favored over the Chippewas by 18 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 63 points.
Our Call: 34-31 for Western Michigan.

Result: Western Michigan beat Central Michigan 31-15.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
7-2 in calling the winner
6-3 against the spread, and
5-4 against the over/under.

Holy Cross (FCS) at Syracuse
The Orange were favored over the Crusaders by 34.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 51.5 points.
Our Call: 49-14 for Syracuse.
Result: Syracuse breezed by Holy Cross 41-3.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
8-2 in calling the winner
7-3 against the spread, and
5-5 against the over/under.

Kansas at TCU
The Horned Frogs were favored over the Jayhawks by 20 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 48 points.
Our Call: 27-24 for TCU.
Result: TCU routed the Jayhawks 51-14.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
9-2 in calling the winner
7-4 against the spread, and
6-5 against the over/under.

Middle Tennessee MTSU at Iowa
The Hawkeyes were favored over the Blue Raiders by 24.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 49.5 points.
Our Call: 34-23 for Iowa.
Result: Iowa routed Middle Tennessee 48-3.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
10-2 in calling the winner
7-5 against the spread, and
7-5 against the over/under.

Northwestern at Wisconsin
The Badgers were favored over the Wildcats by 21 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 45 points.
Our Call: 35-7 for Wisconsin.
Result: Wisconsin prevailed over Northwestern 24-15.>
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
11-2 in calling the winner
7-6 against the spread, and
8-5 against the over/under.

Rutgers at Michigan
The Wolverines were favored over the Scarlet Knights by 29 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 48.5 points.
Our Call: 44-14 for Michigan.
Result: Michigan shut out Rutgers 52-0.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
12-2 in calling the winner
8-6 against the spread, and
9-5 against the over/under.

Texas A&M vs. Arkansas (AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas)
The Aggies were favored over the Razorbacks by 22 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 55 points.
Our Call: 41-17 for Texas A&M.
Result: Texas A&M edged Arkansas 31-27.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
13-2 in calling the winner
8-7 against the spread, and
10-5 against the over/under.

Texas Tech at Oklahoma
The Sooners were favored over the Red Raiders by 23 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 70.5 points.
Our Call: 49-24 for Oklahoma.
Result: Oklahoma rolled past Texas Tech 55-16.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
14-2 in calling the winner
9-7 against the spread, and
11-5 against the over/under.

Delaware (FCS) at Pittsburgh PITT
The Panthers were favored over the Blue Hens by 28 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 52.5 points.
Our Call: 41-7 for Pittsburgh.
Result: Pitt squeaked past FCS Delaware 17-14.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
15-2 in calling the winner
9-8 against the spread, and
12-5 against the over/under.

Mississippi OLE MISS at Alabama
The Crimson Tide were favored over the Rebels by 32.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 57.5 points.
Our Call: 48-17 for Alabama.
Result: Alabama outscored Ole Miss 59-31.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
16-2 in calling the winner
10-8 against the spread, and
13-5 against the over/under.

Virginia at Notre Dame
The Fighting Irish were favored over the Cavaliers by 11 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 50 points.
Our Call: 27-20 for Notre Dame.
Result: Notre Dame topped Virginia 35-20.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
17-2 in calling the winner
10-9 against the spread, and
13-6 against the over/under.

Wake Forest at Boston College
The Demon Deacons were favored over the Eagles by 3 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 71 points.
Our Call: 35-31 for Wake Forest.
Result: Wake Forest edged Boston College 27-24.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
18-2 in calling the winner
10-9-1 against the spread, and
14-6 against the over/under.

Iowa State at Baylor
The Bears were favored over the Cyclones by 3.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 56 points.
Our Call: 31-27 for Iowa State.
Result: Baylor edged Iowa State 23-21.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
18-3 in calling the winner
11-9-1 against the spread, and
14-7 against the over/under.

Coastal Carolina at Appalachian State
The Mountaineers were favored over the Chanticleers by 18.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 58 points.
Our Call: 34-27 for Appalachian State.
Result: Appalachian State outscored Coastal Carolina 56-37.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
19-3 in calling the winner
11-10-1 against the spread, and
15-7 against the over/under.

Minnesota at Purdue
The Golden Gophers were favored over the Boilermakers by 1 point.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 52.5 points.
Our Call: 30-27 for Purdue.
Result: Minnesota beat Purdue 38-31.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
19-4 in calling the winner
11-11-1 against the spread, and
16-7 against the over/under.

USC at Washington
The Huskies were favored over the Trojans by 8 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 58 points.
Our Call: 31-30 for USC.
Result: Washington topped Southern Cal 28-14.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
19-5 in calling the winner
11-12-1 against the spread, and
16-8 against the over/under.

Indiana at Michigan State
The Spartans were favored over the Hoosiers by 14 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 46 points.
Our Call: 27-10 for Michigan State.
Result: Michigan State won 40-31.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
20-5 in calling the winner
11-13-1 against the spread, and
16-9 against the over/under.

Florida Atlantic FAU at Charlotte
The 49ers were favored over the Owls by 2.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 61 points.
Our Call: 34-31 for FAU.
Result: Florida Atlantic beat Charlotte 45-27.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
21-5 in calling the winner
12-13-1 against the spread, and
17-9 against the over/under.

Clemson at North Carolina
The Tigers were favored over the Tar Heels by 28.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 58 points.
Our Call: 38-17 for Clemson.
Result: Clemson squeaked past North Carolina 21-20 as a Tar Heel attempt at a 2-point conversion with a little more than 1 minute left to play failed.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
22-5 in calling the winner
13-13-1 against the spread, and
18-9 against the over/under.

Akron at Massachusetts UMASS
The Zips were favored over the Minutemen by 5.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 60.5 points.
Our Call: 34-23 for Akron.
Result: UMass prevailed over Akron 37-29.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
22-6 in calling the winner
13-14-1 against the spread, and
18-10 against the over/under.

Georgia Tech at Temple
The Owls were favored over the Yellow Jackets by 8 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 53.5 points.
Our Call: 27-24 for Georgia Tech
Result: Temple topped Georgia Tech 24-2.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
22-7 in calling the winner
13-15-1 against the spread, and
19-10 against the over/under.

SMU Southern Methodist at USF South Florida
The Mustangs were favored over the Bulls by 8 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 59.5 points.
Our Call: 35-24 for SMU.
Result: SMU beat South Florida 48-21.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
23-7 in calling the winner
14-15-1 against the spread, and
19-11 against the over/under.

Towson (FCS) at Florida
The Gators were favored over the Tigers by 33 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 62.5 points.
Our Call: 34-10 for Florida.
Result: Florida shut out Towson 38-0.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
24-7 in calling the winner
14-16-1 against the spread, and
20-11 against the over/under.

Cincinnati at Marshall
The Bearcats were favored over the Thundering Herd by 2.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 46 points.
Our Call: 24-17 for Cincinnati.
Result: Cincinnati rolled past Marshall 52-14.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
25-7 in calling the winner
15-16-1 against the spread, and
20-12 against the over/under.

Louisiana Lafayette ULL at Georgia Southern
The Ragin' Cajuns were favored over the Eagles by 3.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 61 points.
Our Call: 38-27 for Louisiana.
Result: Louisiana topped Georgia Southern 37-24.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
26-7 in calling the winner
16-16-1 against the spread, and
20-12-1 against the over/under.

New Mexico at Liberty
The Flames were favored over the Lobos by 9 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 66.5 points.
Our Call: 41-30 for Liberty.
Result: Liberty edged New Mexico 17-10.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
27-7 in calling the winner
16-17-1 against the spread, and
20-13-1 against the over/under.

Arkansas State at Troy
The Trojans were favored over the Red Wolves by 3 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 60.5 points.
Our Call: 34-30 for Troy.
Result: Arkansas State outscored Troy 50-43.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
27-8 in calling the winner
16-18-1 against the spread, and
21-13-1 against the over/under.

East Carolina at Old Dominion
The Pirates were favored over the Monarchs by 1.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 49 points.
Our Call: 24-21 for East Carolina.
Result: Rare, but we predicted the exact final score 24-21 for East Carolina
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
28-8 in calling the winner
17-18-1 against the spread, and
22-13-1 against the over/under.

Kansas State K-STATE at Oklahoma State
The Cowboys were favored over the Wildcats by 7.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 64 points.
Our Call: 31-30 for Kansas State.

Result: Oklahoma State prevailed over K-State 26-13.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
28-9 in calling the winner
17-19-1 against the spread, and
23-13-1 against the over/under.

Louisiana Tech at Rice
The Bulldogs were favored over the Owls by 11.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 50 points.
Our Call: 24-23 for Rice.
Result
: Louisiana Tech edged Rice in overtime 23-20.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
28-10 in calling the winner
18-19-1 against the spread, and
24-13-1 against the over/under.

Mississippi State at Auburn
The Tigers were favored over the Bulldogs by 9 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 48.5 points.
Our Call: 34-17 for Auburn.
Result: Auburn rolled past Mississippi State 56-23.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
29-10 in calling the winner
19-19-1 against the spread, and
25-13-1 against the over/under.

Nicholls (FCS) at Texas State
The Bobcats were favored over the Colonels by 3.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 58 points.
Our Call: 40-23 for Texas State.
Result: Texas State beat Nicholls 24-3.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
30-10 in calling the winner
20-19-1 against the spread, and
25-14-1 against the over/under.

Stanford at Oregon State
The Cardinal were favored over the Beavers by 5.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 60.5 points.
Our Call: 27-20 for Stanford.
Result: Stanford squeaked by Oregon State 31-28.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
31-10 in calling the winner
20-20-1 against the spread, and
26-14-1 against the over/under.

UAB Alabama Birmingham at Western Kentucky WKU
The Hilltoppers were favored over the Blazers by 3.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 49.5 points.
Our Call: 34-17 for UAB.
Result: Western Kentucky topped UAB 20-13.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
31-11 in calling the winner
20-21-1 against the spread, and
26-15-1 against the over/under.

Connecticut UCONN at UCF Central Florida
The Knights were favored over the Huskies by 40 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 62 points.
Our Call: 53-10 for UCF.
Result: UCF led 42-0 at the half and 56-0 in the 3rd quarter in beating UConn 56-21.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
32-11 in calling the winner
20-22-1 against the spread, and
27-15-1 against the over/under.

UTEP at Southern Miss
The Eagles were favored over the Miners by 26.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 52 points.
Our Call: 41-13 for Southern Miss.
Result: Southern Miss won 31-13.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
33-11 in calling the winner
20-23-1 against the spread, and
27-16-1 against the over/under.

South Alabama at Louisiana Monroe ULM
The Warhawks were favored over the Jaguars by 16.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 58.5 points.
Our Call: 31-30 for South Alabama.
Result: Louisiana Monroe topped South Alabama 30-17.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
33-12 in calling the winner
21-23-1 against the spread, and
27-17-1 against the over/under.

Ohio State at Nebraska
The Buckeyes were favored over the Huskers by 15 points (opening line at VegasInsider, at last glance it was 17 points).
The over/under (predicted total score) was 63 points (VegasInsider) and 67.5 points (Oddsshark).
Our Call: 31-30 for the Cornhuskers, calling it as a Husker alum.
Result
: Our unbiased analysis of the stats prognosticated that Ohio State would beat the Huskers by something like 41-17 so that the actual result, 48-7 was no surprise. On offense, the Huskers were 8 of 17 passing for 47 yards with 3 interceptions, while the defense gave up 368 yards rushing and 212 passing for 580 yards total, as the Buckeyes converted 10 of 13 3rd downs, with 7.73 ypp (yards per play) on offense and 4.13 ypp on defense.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
33-13 in calling the winner
21-24-1 against the spread, and
28-17-1 against the over/under.

Colorado State at Utah State
The Aggies were favored over the Rams by 22 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 72.5 points.
Our Call: 44-31 for Utah State.
Result: Utah State won 34-24.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
34-13 in calling the winner
22-24-1 against the spread, and
28-18-1 against the over/under.

Kentucky at South Carolina
The Gamecocks were favored over the Wildcats by 2.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 53 points.
Our Call: 34-31 for South Carolina.
Result: South Carolina beat Kentucky 24-7.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
35-13 in calling the winner
23-24-1 against the spread, and
28-19-1 against the over/under.

North Carolina State NC STATE at Florida State
The Seminoles were favored over the Wolfpack by 6 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 59.5 points.
Our Call: 31-24 for Florida State.
Result: Florida State topped NC State 31-13.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
36-13 in calling the winner
24-24-1 against the spread, and
29-19-1 against the over/under.

Houston at North Texas
The Cougars were favored over the Mean Green by 3 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 67.5 points.
Our Call: 35-31 for North Texas.
Result: Houston beat North Texas 46-25.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
37-13 in calling the winner
25-24-1 against the spread, and
29-20-1 against the over/under.

Fresno State at New Mexico State
The Bulldogs were favored over the Aggies by 19 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 58 points.
Our Call: 45-17 for Fresno State.
Result: Fresno State won 30-17.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
38-13 in calling the winner
25-25-1 against the spread, and
29-21-1 against the over/under.

UNLV at Wyoming
The Cowboys were favored over the Rebels by 7 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 51.5 points.
Our Call: 27-17 for Wyoming.
Result: Wyoming routed UNLV 53-17.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
39-13 in calling the winner
26-25-1 against the spread, and
29-22-1 against the over/under.

Washington State at Utah
The Utes were favored over the Cougars by 8 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 57.5 points.
Our Call: 41-34 for Utah.
Result: Utah prevailed over Washington State 38-13.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
40-13 in calling the winner
26-26-1 against the spread, and
29-23-1 against the over/under.

Hawaii at Nevada
The Wolf Pack were favored over the Warriors by 2.5 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 66.5 points.
Our Call: 38-27 for Hawaii.

Result: Hawaii routed Nevada 54-3.
For Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season
we are thus far:
41-13 in calling the winner
27-26-1 against the spread, and
30-23-1 against the over/under.

UCLA at Arizona
The Wildcats were favored over the Bruins by 9 points.
The over/under (predicted total score) was 69 points.
Our Call: 42-35 for UCLA.

Result: Arizona edged UCLA 20-17.
We thus finished Week 5 of the 2019 FBS college football season as follows:
we are thus far:
41-14 in calling the winner
28-26-1 against the spread, and
30-24-1 against the over/under.