Sunday, December 08, 2013

Landmark Technology Laws Passed in 2013

7 Landmark Tech Laws Passed in 2013 are featured at Mashable.

Week 15 2013 College Football FBS Game Prediction RESULTS by SportPundit

Week 15 2013 College Football FBS Game Prediction RESULTS by SportPundit

It was a very rough conference championship weekend for us, with numerous upsets, as we were 8-5 in calling the winner and 5-8 against the spread.

Our stats for the season after Week 15 are 625-184 (77.3%) in calling the winner and 389-324-11 (54.6%) against the spread.

Below are our College Football Prediction RESULTS for Week 15, 2013 relying on YPPSYS, our Yards Per Play System and our FBS Ratings and Rankings of all 125 Teams after Week 14 of the 2013 Season.

What makes a good prognosticator? Confidence and/or Accuracy?
And how about keeping all those conference changes straight?

Caveat emptor (Buyer beware): We make this material available in good fun out of interest for the sport of college football. Please do not rely on our material to place bets or wagers of any kind. No one knows the exact outcome of a game or a season before it is played and that is what makes it so interesting. We disclaim any and all liability for the consequences of anyone relying in any way upon our postings, analysis, links or reasoning - for which we make no warranty of accuracy. May the best team win.

YPPSYS means "yards per play system", as that is our main ranking component, based primarily on stats at cfbstats.com, but we also use schedule difficulty and conference rankings as based on calculations e.g. at Massey Ratings, although our own system of schedule difficulty prevails.

At YPPSYS, we regard a difference of one rating point to be worth about 7 points on the scoreboard, a calculation, of course, that is not absolute, given home field advantages, etc.

In past weeks we have calculated the home field advantage at an average of about 3 points, but we now also sometimes use Kambour stats.

The betting lines ("odds", "point spread", or "spread") for Week 15 used here were taken from the opening lines at Oddsshark as of Sunday, December 1, 2013.
If opening odds were not yet available, these were entered initially as "??" and were added later, when available. Note that the lines can and often do change over time, but our predictions do not reflect later changes once we have posted odds here as the basis for comparing our own selections.

Thursday, December 5, 2013

Louisville at Cincinnati
The Cardinals are favored over the Bearcats by 6.5 points.
Our call: 27-21 for Louisville.
RESULT: Louisville beat Cincinnati 31-24 in overtime as both teams put up a nearly identical 432 and 428 yards. This game shows that beating the odds or not is almost always at least a bit of pot luck. In regular time, the teams played even in terms of score, but Louisville beat the opening line due their overtime touchdown. Indeed, the College Football Prediction Tracker had the opening line as 7 points, with the Cardinals going off as only 3.5 point favorites at game time. Hence, one always has to take all stats about success against the spread with a grain of salt.
This week we are 1-0 in calling the winner and 0-1 against the spread.

Friday, December 6, 2013

Bowling Green at Northern Illinois
Marathon MAC Football Championship
(at Ford Field, Detroit, Michigan)
The Huskies are favored over the Falcons by 3 points.
Our call: 34-30 for Northern Illinois.
RESULT:The Falcons crushed the Huskies, leading 31-13 at the half and winning 47-27, as Bowling Green QB Matt Johnson threw for 393 yards and five TDs and outplayed Jordan Lynch QB of Northern Illinois, who nevertheless ran for 126 yards and two TDs to break his own previous record in major college football of TDs in a season scored by a quarterback. Lynch threw for 1 TD but had two passes intercepted.
This week we are 1-1 in calling the winner and 0-2 against the spread.

Saturday, December 7, 2013

Oklahoma at Oklahoma State
The Cowboys are favored over the Sooners by 10.5 points.
Our call: 35-21 for Oklahoma State.
RESULT: The Sooners continued their domination over the Cowboys in their intra-state rivalry, as Oklahoma upset Oklahoma State 33-24 with 16 4th quarter points behind OUs 3rd QB in the game, Blake Bell.
This week we are 1-2 in calling the winner and 0-3 against the spread.


UCF (Central Florida) at SMU (Southern Methodist)
The Knights  are favored over the Mustangs  by 10 points.
Our call: 35-24 for UCF.
RESULT: UCF struggled against the Mustangs and were lucky to win 17-13 on a Blake Bortels 15-yard TD run at the end of the 3rd quarter, as the teams remained scoreless in the 4th.
This week we are 2-2 in calling the winner and 0-4 against the spread.
 
Memphis at Connecticut
The Tigers are favored over the Huskies by 1.5 points.
Our call: 28-24 for Connecticut.
RESULT:UConn is starting to look like the strong Huskies teams of the past, as Connecticut dominated Memphis 45-10. They would be very wise to hire interim head coach T.J. Weist as head coach permanently.
This week we are 3-2 in calling the winner and 1-4 against the spread.

Texas at Baylor 
The Bears are favored over the Longhorns by 13 points.
Our call: 41-31 for Baylor.
RESULT:The Bears won the Big 12 Championship, outgaining Texas 508 to 217 yards and beating the Longhorns 30-10. Case McCoy was 12 of 34 passing for Texas for 54 yards, 1 TD and 2 interceptions. We are not fans of the Texas short yardage offensive strategy. Meanwhile, Bryce Petty of Baylor was 21 of 37 passes for 287 yards, 2 TDs and no interceptions.
This week we are 4-2 in calling the winner and 1-5 against the spread.

Missouri at Auburn
SEC Football Championship Game
(in the Georgia Dome, Atlanta, Georgia)
The Tigers of Auburn are favored over the Tigers of Missouri by 2 points.
Our call: 30-27 for Auburn.
RESULT: Its a true Hollywood story, better than Hollywood. Auburn, the 2013 team of destiny thus far, continued its magic under head coaching wizard Gus Malzahn, as Auburn outgained Mizzou 677 to 534 yards and outscored them 59-42 to win the SEC crown, with Tre Mason running for 304 yards and 4 touchdowns.  Nick Marshall was 9 of 11 passing for 132 yards and ran for 101 yards and another TD. Read Tony Barnhart, Mr. CFB, in Auburn turnaround a tale of redemption, faith and winning. Malzahn and his team pulled off the improbable stunt of going from an 0-8 finish in the SEC last year to SEC champion one year later. He recruited resurrected Juco QB Nick Marshall as the basis for his offense. As defensive coordinator, Malzahn hired Ellis Johnson, who went 0-12 as head coach of Southern Miss the previous year. You can't even make this stuff up. Unbelievable.
This week we are 5-2 in calling the winner and 2-5 against the spread.
 
South Florida at Rutgers
The Scarlet Knights are favored over the Bulls by 7 points.
Our call: 24-21 for Rutgers.
RESULT:Well, here we should have gone with our own stats which would have given Rutgers a 9-point edge, as the Scarlet Knights polished off the Bulls easily 31-6 and became bowl eligible.
This week we are 6-2 in calling the winner and 2-6 against the spread.
  Stanford at Arizona State
Pac-12 Football Championship Game
(at Sun Devil Stadium, Tempe, Arizona)
The Sun Devils are favored over the Cardinal by 3 points.
Our call: 30-27 for Stanford.
RESULT:  The high-powered offense of the Sun Devils was stymied for the second time this season by the Cardinal, who beat them 38-14 in the rematch, winning the Pac-12 title. Stanford is the kind of physically dominant defensively oriented and run-strong team that offensive powerhouses have trouble beating, and that would include Florida State. Without playoffs, you just never find out. Besides, a four-team selection, as this season proves, is insufficient, and at least 8 teams should be included to find the best one.
This week we are 7-2 in calling the winner and 3-6 against the spread.

Louisiana Lafayette (ULL, LA Lafayette) at South Alabama
The Jaguars are favored over the Ragin' Cajuns by 3 points.
Our call: 31-27 for Louisiana Lafayette.
RESULT:The conference-leading Cajuns continued their puzzling slide, losing their second straight, decisively 30-8 to the Jaguars, who became bowl eligible.
This week we are 7-3 in calling the winner and 3-7 against the spread.

Duke at Florida State
Dr Pepper ACC Football Championship Game
(Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina)
The Seminoles are favored over the Blue Devils by 27.5 points.
Our call: 45-17 for Florida State.
RESULT:The Seminoles completed a perfect 13-0 regular season by knocking off the Blue Devils 45-7, outgaining them 569 to 239 yards, as Jameis Winston threw for 330 yards on 19 of 32 completions for 3 TDs, 2 to Kelvin Benjamin, and 2 interceptions. Florida State may have the most football talent on the field of any FBS team, but now the question in the BCS title game will be how they stand up to well-coached stiff competition.
This week we are 8-3 in calling the winner and 4-7 against the spread.

Ohio State at Michigan State
Big Ten Championship Game
(at Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Indiana)
The Buckeyes are favored over the Spartans by 6.5 points.
Our call: 24-23 for Ohio State.
RESULT: The Ohio State winning streak of 24 is at an end. We worried about the Buckeyes for this game because of their weak defensive performance against Michigan in a game they were lucky to win. The Spartans have been steadily improving and it showed in the Michigan State upset of Ohio State 34-24 to take the Big Ten conference title, as the Buckeyes were outgained 438 to 374 yards and gave up 14 points in the 4th quarter without scoring any in return. Urban Meyer and the team will get over it, but they still have much to tweak at Ohio State, as Michigan State, clearly the better team, proved.
This week we are 8-4 in calling the winner and 5-7 against the spread.

Utah State at Fresno State
Mountain West Championship Game
(at Bulldog Stadium, California State University at Fresno -- i.e. Fresno State)
The Bulldogs are favored over the Aggies by 6 points.
Our call: 31-30 for Utah State.
RESULT:Thie Bulldogs prevailed over the Aggies 24-17, outgaining Utah State 460 to 304 yards in spite of turning the ball over five times to two, but the Aggies were unable to turn that advantage into necessary scores. Part of the problem was the Utah State insistence on running the ball even though 40 carries netted only 51 yards. Well, if you can't run, you have to throw, rather than banging your head against a brick wall. These are the kinds of stats that show that coaching is not optimal.
This week we are 8-5 in calling the winner and 5-8 against the spread.

Note: We must inadvertently have deleted our Marshall vs. Rice prognostication, since it is missing from our prediction pages. Sorry about that.

And now, on to the bowl games, featured in our coming postings.... 

 

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