Wednesday, November 06, 2013

Week 11 2013 College Football FBS Game Predictions by SportPundit

Week 11 2013 College Football FBS Game Predictions by SportPundit 

There are three big games this week between top poll-ranked teams:
Oklahoma at Baylor, Oregon at Stanford, and LSU at Alabama, the first two of those games already on Thursday! Houston at UCF and BYU at Wisconsin are other games of interest with ranked teams in the fray. Of interest for us in the arena of the Big House, given Husker and Wolverine graduates in our home, is the Nebraska Cornhuskers at Michigan Wolverines game, which matches two teams that have disappointed greatly this season.

Our stats for the season after Week 10 are 447-127 (78.5%) in calling the winner and 265-214-10 (55.3%) against the spread.

Below are our College Football Predictions for Week 11 2013 relying on YPPSYS, our Yards Per Play System and our FBS Ratings and Rankings of all 125 Teams after Week 10 of the 2013 Season. What makes a good prognosticator? Confidence and/or Accuracy?
And how about keeping all those conference changes straight?

Caveat emptor (Buyer beware): We make this material available in good fun out of interest for the sport of college football. Please do not rely on our material to place bets or wagers of any kind. No one knows the exact outcome of a game or a season before it is played and that is what makes it so interesting. We disclaim any and all liability for the consequences of anyone relying in any way upon our postings, analysis, links or reasoning - for which we make no warranty of accuracy. May the best team win.

YPPSYS means "yards per play system", as that is our main ranking component, based primarily on stats at cfbstats.com, but we also use schedule difficulty and conference rankings as based on calculations e.g. at Massey Ratings, although our own system of schedule difficulty prevails.

At YPPSYS, we regard a difference of one rating point to be worth about 7 points on the scoreboard, a calculation, of course, that is not absolute, given home field advantages, etc.

We have been calculating the home field advantage at an average of about 3 points, and last week also used some of the Kambour stats, which calculate the home field advantage for each team, which can vary. This week, we may ignore that stat entirely for some games since it does not always help.

The betting lines ("odds", "point spread", or "spread") for Week 11 used here were taken from the opening lines at Oddsshark as of Sunday, November 3, 2013. If odds were not yet available, these were entered initially as "??" and are added later, when available. Note that the lines can and often do change over time, but our predictions do not reflect later changes once we have posted odds here as the basis for comparing our own selections.

Tuesday, November 5, 2013

Bowling Green at Miami of Ohio
The Falcons are favored over the Redhawks by 24.5 points.
Our call: 37-14 for Bowling Green. Our own ratings have the Falcons 3.8 rating points better x 7 = 25.6 scoreboard points, minus the home field advantage (Kambour has e.g. 3.0138 points). It is a hard call because Bowling Green excels at defense, but is weak on offense, which keeps their margins of victory lower. The low-offense Redhawks have scored at most 17 points in a game this season.  Bowling Green's best point total against an FBS team is 41 points. We rate the Ohio Bobcats also at 2.6 rating points, just as Bowling Green, and Miami of Ohio lost to them on the road 41-16 last week.

Ohio at Buffalo
The Bulls are favored over the Bobcats by 2.5 points.
Our call: 30-27 for Buffalo. Both teams beat Eastern Michigan by 28 points this season. Our ratings have Ohio 0.3 rating points better than Buffalo x 7 = 2.1 scoreboard points. Kambour has the home field advantage for Buffalo at 7.3651 points. Jeff Quinn seems to have managed the turn-around for the Bulls this year as Buffalo has been getting stronger with every game, winning their last six after opening season losses to Ohio State and Baylor.

Wednesday, November 6, 2013

Central Michigan at Ball State
The Cardinals are favored over the Chippewas by 21.5 points.
Our call: 38-24 for Ball State.

Thursday, November 7, 2013

Oklahoma at Baylor
The Bears are favored over the Sooners by 7 points.
Our call: 42-21 for Baylor.

Troy at Louisiana Lafayette (ULL, LA-Lafayete)
The Ragin' Cajuns are favored over the Trojans by 13 points.
Our call: 38-28 for LA Lafayette.

Oregon at Stanford
The Ducks are favored over the Cardinal by 9.5 points.
Our call: 27-26 for Stanford. Our stats would favor Oregon by about 7 points, but since we are siding here with Stanford as our alma mater anyway, we might as well call it for the Cardinal and their top defense by 1 point.

Friday, November 8, 2013

Louisville at Connecticut
The Cardinals are favored over the Huskies by 26.5 points.
Our call: 42-14 for Louisville. UConn is playing under interim head coach T.J. Weist, who replaced Paul Pasqualoni at the beginning of October.

Air Force at New Mexico
The Lobos are favored over the Falcons by 1.5 points.
Our call: 31-28 for New Mexico.

Saturday, November 9, 2013

Florida State at Wake Forest
The Seminoles are favored over the Demon Deacons by 34.5 points.
Our call: 42-14 for Florida State.

Virginia Tech at Miami of Florida
The Hurricanes are favored over the Hokies by 6.5 points.
Our call: 31-21 for Miami of Florida.

Notre Dame at Pittsburgh
The Fighting Irish are favored over the Panthers by 3.5 points.
Our call: 31-24 for Notre Dame.

Missouri at Kentucky
The Tigers are favored over the Wildcats by 14 points.
Our call: 38-21 for Missouri.

Auburn at Tennessee
The Tigers are favored over the Volunteers by 7.5 points.
Our call: 34-24 for Auburn.

Kansas State at Texas Tech
The Red Raiders are favored over the Wildcats by 4 points.
Our call: 28-27 for Kansas State.

Vanderbilt at Florida
The Gators are favored over the Commodores by 10 points.
Our call: 27-20 for Florida.

TCU at Iowa State
The Horned Frogs are favored over the Cyclones by 8 points.
Our call: 30-23 for TCU.

Penn State at Minnesota
The game between the Nittany Lions and Golden Gophers is seen as even.
Our call: 27-26 for Minnesota.

UAB at Marshall
The Thundering Herd is favored over the Blazers by 23 points.
Our call: 44-20 for Marshall.

Western Kentucky at Army
The Hilltoppers are favored over the Black Knights by 6 points.
Our call: 34-31 for Western Kentucky.

SMU (Southern Methodist University) at Cincinnati
The Bearcats are favored over the Mustangs by 10.5 points.
Our call: 31-27 for Cincinnati.

Iowa at Purdue
The Hawkeyes are favored over the Boilermakers by 14 points.
Our call: 27-14 for Iowa.

Arkansas at Mississippi
The Rebels are favored over the Razorbacks by 17 points.
Our call: 41-20 for Ole Miss.

Appalachian State at Georgia
The Bulldogs are favored over the Mountaineers by 31.5 points.
Our call: 56-7 for Georgia.

Virginia at North Carolina
The Tar Heels are favored over the Cavaliers by 14 points.
Our call: 28-21 for North Carolina.

Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan
The Broncos are favored over the Eagles by 3 points.
Our call: 34-27 for Western Michigan.

Tulane at Texas San Antonio (UTSA)
The Roadrunners are favored over the Green Wave by 7.5 points.
Our call: 31-24 for UTSA.

USC at California
The Trojans are favored over the Golden Bears by 17 points.
Our call: 38-24 for Southern Cal.

Mississippi State at Texas A&M
The Aggies are favored over the Bulldogs by 19 points.
Our call: 45-24 for Texas A&M.

Nebraska at Michigan
The Wolverines are favored over the Huskers by 6.5 points.
Our call: 35-21 for Michigan.

Brigham Young at Wisconsin
The Badgers are favored over the Cougars by 9 points.
Our call: 35-23 for Wisconsin.

Nevada at Colorado State
The Rams are favored over the Wolf Pack by 8 points.
Our call: 35-31 for Colorado State.

Illinois at Indiana
The Hoosiers are favored over the Illini by 7.5 points.
Our call: 38-28 for Indiana.

Syracuse at Maryland
The Terrapins are favored over the Orange by 3.5 points.
Our call: 28-24 for Maryland.

Boston College at New Mexico State
The Eagles are favored over the Aggies by 24 points.
Our call: 40-17 for Boston College.

UTEP at North Texas
The Mean Green are favored over the Miners by 21 points.
Our call: 44-20 for North Texas.

Hawaii at Navy
The Midshipmen are favored over the Warriors by 18 points.
Our call: 35-21 for Navy.

Tulsa at East Carolina
The Pirates are favored over the Golden Hurricane by 14 points.
Our call: 31-14 for East Carolina.

Kansas at Oklahoma State
The Cowboys are favored over the Jayhawks by 32 points.
Our call: 38-14 for Oklahoma State.

North Carolina State at Duke
The Blue Devils are favored over the Wolfpack by 9 points.
Our call: 31-23 for Duke.

Arizona State at Utah
The Sun Devils are favored over the Utes by 7 points.
Our call: 30-27 for Arizona State.

FIU (Florida International) at Middle Tennessee
The Blue Raiders are favored over the Golden Panthers by 17 points.
Our call: 34-14 for Middle Tennessee.

Tennessee-Martin at Memphis
The Tigers are favored over the Skyhawks by 14.5 points.
Our call: 41-27 for Memphis.

Old Dominion Monarchs at Idaho Vandals
The Monarchs are favored over the Vandals by 13 points.
Our call: 38-34 for Old Dominion.

Houston at UCF (U of Central Florida)
The Knights are favored over the Cougars by 10 points.
Our call: 38-24 for UCF.

Texas at West Virginia
The Longhorns are favored over the Mountaineers by 7.5 points.
Our call: 31-24 for Texas.

Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech
The Bulldogs are favored over the Golden Eagles by 14 points.
Our call: 33-21 for Louisiana Tech.

Arkansas State at Louisiana-Monroe
The Warhawks are favored over the Red Wolves by 3.5 points.
Our call: 27-24 for LA-Monroe.

LSU at Alabama
The Crimson Tide is favored over the Tigers by 9.5 points.
Our call: 31-24 for Alabama.

Colorado at Washington
The Huskies are favored over the Buffaloes by 27 points.
Our call: 38-21 for Washington.

Utah State at UNLV
The Aggies are favored over the Rebels by 13 points.
Our call: 34-24 for Utah State.

UCLA at Arizona
The Bruins are favored over the Wildcats by 2.5 points.
Our call: 31-24 for UCLA.

Fresno State at Wyoming
The Bulldogs are favored over the Cowboys by 10.5 points.
Our call: 38-28 for Fresno State.

San Diego State at San Jose State
The Spartans are favored over the Aztecs by 6.5 points.
Our call: 30-27 for San Jose State.

New Jersey Governor Christie Establishes Himself as Favorite for Next Presidential Election: Pragmatic Bipartisanship, Work Together, No Crap, Get Things Done

As political non-partisans we early on predicted a Democratic Party Barack Obama would become U.S. President and we think Republican Party New Jersey Governor Chris Christie is now in the driver's seat for the next Presidential election.

See the New York Times at Chris Christie Coasts to 2nd Term as Governor of New Jersey.

America desperately needs and many in the country surely want a no-nonsense middle-of-the-roader who can attract the voters in the center -- those who decide the elections -- while also being acceptable to a broad swath of voters both to the left and right of that center.

You can forget the political nuts at both extremes who are unteachable, as most extremists are, and who will continue to grind their campaigns of hatred no matter what happens. They are not the real America.

We remain of the non-partisan opinion that Barack Obama has done a good job in office as America's first black President and that Christie would be the right man to follow him in continuing the job of American reconstruction.

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