Monday, October 14, 2013

Federal Debt: Key Upcoming Dates

Key dates on debt limit as Thursday deadline nears are found at The Seattle Times via Christopher S. Rugaber, AP Economics Writer.

Week 8 2013 College Football FBS Game Predictions

Week 8 2013 College Football FBS Game Predictions by SportPundit 

Our stats for the season after Week 7 are 328-91 (78%) in calling the winner and 212-168-5 (56%) against the spread.

Below are our College Football Predictions for Week 8 2013 relying on YPPSYS, our Yards Per Play System and our FBS Ratings and Rankings of all 125 Teams after Week 7 of the 2013 Season.

Skip the indented material if you are already familiar with it. 
What makes a good prognosticator? Confidence and/or Accuracy?
And how about keeping all those conference changes straight?
Caveat emptor (Buyer beware): We make this material available in good fun out of interest for the sport of college football. Please do not rely on our material to place bets or wagers of any kind. No one knows the exact outcome of a game or a season before it is played and that is what makes it so interesting. We disclaim any and all liability for the consequences of anyone relying in any way upon our postings, analysis, links or reasoning - for which we make no warranty of accuracy. May the best team win
YPPSYS means "yards per play system", as that is our main ranking component, based primarily on stats at cfbstats.com, but we also use schedule difficulty and conference rankings as based on calculations e.g. at Massey Ratings. At YPPSYS, we regard a difference of one rating point to be worth about 7 points on the scoreboard, a calculation, of course, that is not absolute, given home field advantages, etc. We calculate the home field advantage at an average of about 3 points.
The betting lines ("odds" or "spread") used here were taken from the opening lines at Oddsshark.com. Missing odds are added later as the opening line for each game.

Tuesday, October 15, 2013

Louisiana Lafayette /ULL, LA-Lafayette) at Western Kentucky
The Hilltoppers are favored over the Ragin' Cajuns by 3.5 points.
Our call: 31-30 for Lousiana Lafayette.

Thursday, October 17, 2013

Miami of Florida at North Carolina
The Hurricanes are favored over the Tar Heels by 7.5 points.
Our call: 38-20 for Miami of Florida.

Friday, October 18, 2013

UCF at Louisville
The Cardinals are favored over the Knights by 17.5 points.
Our call: 38-27 for Louisville. This game may not be a cinch for Louisville.

Saturday, October 19, 2013

Minnesota at Northwestern
The Wildcats are favored over Golden Gophers by 13 points.
Our call: 35-23 for Northwestern.

Purdue at Michigan State
The Spartans are favored over the Boilermakers by 21 points.
Our call: 31-7 for Michigan State.

Southern Miss at East Carolina
The Pirates are favored over the Golden Eagles by 21 points.
Our call: 31-14 for East Carolina.

TCU at Oklahoma State
The Cowboys are favored over the Horned Frogs by 7 points.
Our call: 31-27 for Oklahoma State.

SMU at Memphis
The Tigers are favored over the Mustangs by 1 point.
Our call: 26-24 for Memphis.

Georgia at Vanderbilt
The Bulldogs are favored over the Commodores by 9.5 points.
Our call: 41-28 for Georgia.

Texas Tech at West Virginia
The Red Raiders are favored over the Mountaineers by 6.5 points.
Our call: 34-27 for Texas Tech.

Connecticut at Cincinnati
The Bearcats are favored over the Huskies by 14.5 points.
Our call: 27-17 for Cincinnati.

South Carolina at Tennessee
The Gamecocks are favored over the Volunteers by 7 points.
Our call: 37-27 for South Carolina.

Navy at Toledo
The Rockets are favored over the Midshipmen by 6 points.
Our call: 35-27 for Toledo.

Florida at Missouri
The Gators are favored over the Tigers by 1.5 points.
Our call: 27-24 for Missouri. Florida's weak link is its weak offense and if they fall behind the Tigers, they will have to work to be able to catch up.

Syracuse at Georgia Tech
The Yellow Jackets are favored over the Orange by 9.5 points.
Our call: 30-27 for Georgia Tech.

Akron at Miami of Ohio
The Zips are favored over the Redhawks by 6 points.
Our call: 37-23 for Akron.

Army at Temple
The Black Knights are favored over the Owls by 1.5 points.
Our call: 31-26 for Army.

Ohio at Eastern Michigan
The Bobcats are favored over the Eagles by 20 points.
Our call: 38-17 for Ohio.

Charleston Southern at Colorado
The ?? are favored over the ?? by ?? points.
Our call: 31-21 for Colorado. The Buccaneers of the Big South are undefeated at 7-0 and ranked 25th in the FCS Coaches Poll..

Ball State at Western Michigan
The Cardinals are favored over the Broncos by 21 points.
Our call: 35-21 for Ball State.

Colorado State at Wyoming
The Cowboys are favored over the Rams by 6.5 points.
Our call: 35-28 for Wyoming.

Kent State at South Alabama
The ?? are favored over the ?? by ?? points.
Our call: 35-23 for South Alabama.

Northern Illinois at Central Michigan
The Huskies are favored over the Chippewas by 17 points.
Our call: 37-24 for Northern Illinois.

UCLA at Stanford
The Cardinal is favored over the Bruins by 6 points.
Our call: 30-28 for UCLA. We do not like calling this game against our own alma mater Stanford, but our stats favor the Bruins, in spite of the home field advantage. Of course, we will root for the Cardinal.

Indiana at Michigan
The Wolverines are favored over the Hoosiers by 10.5. points.
Our call: 34-21 for Michigan.

Maryland at Wake Forest
The Terrapins are favored over the Demon Deacons by 7 points.
Our call: 27-21 for Maryland.

Iowa at Ohio State
The Buckeyes are favored over the Hawkeyes by 17 points.
Our call: 35-17 for Ohio State.

Auburn at Texas A&M
The Aggies are favored over the Tigers by 12 points.
Our call: 42-35 for Texas A&M.

BYU at Houston
The BYU Cougars are favored over the Houston Cougars by 9 points.
Our call: 34-24- for BYU.

Duke at Virginia
The Cavaliers are favored over the Blue Devils by 4 points.
Our call: 27-26 for Duke. Both teams lost to Pittsburgh, Virginia because it couldn't score at 14-3 and Duke because they scored too few 58-55.

Massachusetts at Buffalo
The Bulls are favored over the Minutemen by 20.5 points.
Our call: 28-7 for Buffalo.

Oklahoma at Kansas
The Sooners are favored over the Jayhawks by 24 points.
Our call: 36-14 for Oklahoma.

North Texas at Louisiana Tech
The Mean Green are favored over the Bulldogs by 7 points.
Our call: 30-27 for North Texas.

Washington at Arizona State
The Sun Devils are favored over the Huskies by 3 points.
Our call: 31-30 for Arizona State.

LSU at Mississippi
The Tigers are favored over the Ole Miss by 8 points.
Our call: 37-27 for LSU.

Old Dominion at Pittsburgh
The ?? are favored over the ?? by ?? points.
Our call: 40-21 for Pittsburgh.

Iowa State at Baylor
The Bears are favored over the Cyclones by 33 points.
Our call: 43-24 for Baylor.

Georgia State at Texas State
The Bobcats are favored over the Panthers by 19 points.
Our call: 34-20 for Texas State.

Arkansas at Alabama
The Crimson Tide is favored over the Razorbacks by 28 points.
Our call: 44-17 for Alabama.

USC at Notre Dame
The Fighting Irish are favored over the Trojans by 1.5 points.
Our call: 30-27 for Notre Dame. USC has an interim head coach. Who knows?

Nevada at Boise State
The Broncos are favored over the Rebels by 21.5 points.
Our call: 38-24 for Boise State.

Rice at New Mexico State
The Owls are favored over the Aggies by 20 points.
Our call: 38-24 for Rice.

Florida State at Clemson The Seminoles are favored over the Tigers by 3 points.
Our call: 37-28 for Florida State.

Wisconsin at Illinois
The Badgers are favored over the Illini by 10 points.
Our call: 41-30 for Wisconsin.

Utah State at New Mexico
The ?? are favored over the ?? by ?? points.
Our call: 41-27 for Utah State.

Utah at Arizona
The Wildcats are favored over the Utes by 4.5 points.
Our call: 34-27 for Utah.

UNLV at Fresno State
The Bulldogs are favored over the Rebels by 21 points.
Our call: 37-24 for Fresno State.

Washington State at Oregon
The Ducks are favored over the Cougars by 39 points.
Our call: 47-17 for Oregon.

Oregon State at California
The Beavers are favored over the Golden Bears by 7.5 points.
Our call: 35-30 for Oregon State.

Health Care Issues Worldwide: China's New Aged Care Law: And What About the 29 U.S. States That Have Laws that Require Children to Support their Elderly Parents?

The misguided politicians who oppose affordable health care in the form of a federal law such as "Obamacare" should then instead be passing laws in their gerrymandered districts and States to properly take care of people like the elderly. Are they doing that? Of course not.

In a report by the Associated Press at ABC News in 5 Things to Know About China's New Aged Care Law - ABC News, it is written:
"A handful of countries, such as China, India, France and Ukraine, require adult children to financially support their parents. Similar laws are in place in 29 U.S. states, Puerto Rico and most of Canada, but they are rarely enforced because government aid helps support the old. In Singapore, adult children who do not give their parents an allowance can face six months in jail."
We wonder how many of those who oppose Obamacare are THEMSELVES supporting their elderly parents rather than having their own close relatives rely on government handouts or other forms of "socialized" i.e. "socially pooled" assistance or aid, including private health insurance, especially in those U.S. States where they are required by law to do so.


Statue of Liberty Reopens -- Awaiting Arrival of Tea Party And Other Republican Extremists to Straighten Out Their Heads About the Meaning of America?

We would suggest that all House Tea Party, Republican and other US political extremists in Congress or elsewhere, now "out of work" due to the federal government shutdown, visit the "grand old lady" in their paid spare time and straighten out their confused heads about an America that is honored by the lines written on the pedestal beneath the Statue of Liberty monument in the famous words of Emma Lazarus:

"Give me your tired, your poor,
Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me,
I lift my lamp beside the golden door!"

Those extremists in Congress today, especially those opposing affordable health care for all and those besmirching America's reputation by threatening financial default and those who elected and financed them are nothing but a shameful disgrace to the history of an otherwise great nation.

Statue of Liberty Reopens as Other Sites Stay Closed

American Wines: 2013 San Francisco Chronicle Wine Competition Has Picked the Winners: e.g. Chimney Rock Best of Class for Bordeaux Blends

The results are in from the 2013 San Francisco Chronicle Wine Competition of over 5000 wines, the largest such competition in the world for American wines.

Among the Sweepstakes winners for its Terlato Family Vineyards 2010 Pinot Noir Russian River Valley wine, Terlato Wines International at Chimney Rock: Exciting News also announced that its Chimney Rock Cabernet 2009 Elevage was named Best of Class for Bordeaux Blends over $50 -- that's the top of the line in that category.

Chimney Rock Winery was originally founded by the late Sheldon "Hack" Wilson, who of course would have been proud of this honor.

Hat tip to CaryGEE.

2013 FBS College Football Rankings after WEEK 7 by SportPundit

Below are the 2013 FBS College Football Rankings after WEEK 7 of play, by SportPundit.

Note that we do not have the time to do this every week, but those interested can update the stats for their use on their own in coming weeks as many changes will still surely take place this early in the season. The yards per play stats are likely to be more useful when a good number of representative games have been played in the course of a season.

Please read the indented material unless you are already familiar with it.
Caveat emptor (Buyer beware): We make this material available in good fun out of interest for the sport of college football. Please do not rely on our material to place bets or wagers of any kind. No one knows the exact outcome of a game or a season before it is played and that is what makes it so interesting. We disclaim any and all liability for the consequences of anyone relying in any way upon our postings, analysis, links or reasoning - for which we make no warranty of accuracy. May the best team win.

These early season ratings and rankings are based in part on our primary measure of "net average yards per play advantage" (NAYPPA), a specific predictive calculation which we were the first to implement, minus a calculation based on the schedule difficulty and a penalty for losses. Because of FCS scheduling, gauging schedule difficulty at this point in the season is largely guesswork!

Yards per play stats are taken from cfbstats.com. In recent years, an average FBS team gained ca. 5.4 yards per play on offense and allowed ca. 5.4 yards per play on defense, a statistic that holds fairly constant.
 
Massey Ratings schedule difficulty ratings were sourced in part, but we also use subjective judgments and adjustments to handle schedule difficulty, whereby -- for these rankings and ratings --  from the NAYPPA data, we subtract .01 times 2x the schedule difficulty up to 50, and .01 times 3x the schedule difficulty for 55 and up. We subtract .2 for every loss. The system is a bit unwieldy for calculation, but we have to account for strong teams beating up on weak ones.

As a measuring stick, note that the best college teams of all time had a NAYPPA of not greater than 3.0 for an entire season. Schedules have become easier recently, e.g. through FCS scheduling, and Boise State had a 3.5 season NAYPPA three years ago but lost a game. According to the yards-per-play standard, last year's Alabama team would have been ranked among the best teams ever, had they not lost to Texas A&M. But they did lose.

See Best Teams Ever: (top three as examples below)
In past recent years, an average FBS team gained ca. 5.4 yards per play on offense and allows ca. 5.4 yards per play on defense, a statistic that holds fairly constant.

THE 2013 SportPundit & YPPSYS TEAM RANKINGS AND RATINGS after WEEK 7

Team
Rank
AFTER
Week
- 7 -
2013
by 
Sport
Pundit
AFTER
Week
 - 7 -
2013

* =
adjustment

NAYPPA
net average yards per play advantage offense over defense based on stats from cfbstats.com
(our calculation) 


yards
per
play offense

yards
per
play defense


Schedule difficulty
*plus or minus  subjective adjustments*
 (calculation based in part on Massey Ratings AND also a lot on our own past ratings and rankings)


W-L
(won
-loss)
record
2013

YPPSYS
Team
Rating NAYPPA
minus .01 x
2x schedule difficulty up to 50 minus 3x schedule difficulty thereafter
minus .2 for every loss.

Florida State
4.0

8.3
4.3

70
5-0
+1.9
2 Oregon 3.9

8.1
4.2

65
6-0
+1.9

Alabama
2.1

6.9
4.8

50
6-0
+1.1
4 LSU 2.0

7.2
5.2

50
6-1
+0.8
5 Louisville 3.7

7.7
4.0

110
6-0
+0.4
6 Miami (Florida) 3.3

7.8
4.5

100
5-0
+0.3
7 Ohio State 1.7

6.6
4.9

55*
6-0
+0.2
8 UCLA 2.2

6.7
4.5

65
5-0
+0.2
9 Clemson 1.2

6.3
5.1

50*
6-0
+0.2
10 Georgia 1.3

7.1
5.8

40
4-2
+0.1
11 Texas A&M 1.1

7.6
6.5

45

5-1

+0.0 

12 Baylor
4.8


9.3
4.5


90*

5-0

+0.0*

13 South Carolina
1.1


6.7
5.6

50
5-1
-0.1
14 Florida1.1

5.3
4.2

50
4-2
-0.3
15 Missouri 1.3

6.8
5.5

55*
6-0
-0.3
16 Virginia Tech 0.8

4.8
4.0

50
5-1
-0.4
17 Oklahoma0.8

5.7
4.9

50
5-1
-0.4
18 Wisconsin
3.4


7.5
4.1


115

4-2

-0.4

19 Utah 1.3

6.7
5.4

55*
4-2
-0.5
20Stanford 1.5

6.5
5.0

60
5-1
-0.5
21 Auburn 1.3

6.8
5.5

55
5-1
-0.5
22 Washington 1.7

6.3
4.6

60
4-2
-0.5
23 UCF 1.2

6.5
5.3

60
4-1
-0.8
24 Michigan 1.2

5.8
4.6

60
5-1
-0.8
25 Notre Dame 0.5

5.8
5.3

50
4-2
-0.9
26 Mississippi 0.3

5.6
5.3

40
3-3
-1.1
27 Michigan State 1.4

5.0
3.6

75
5-1
-1.1
28 Arizona State
0.6


6.3
5.7


55*
4-2
-1.1
29 BYU 1.1

5.6
4.5

55
4-2
-1.1
30 USC 0.8

6.0
5.2

55
4-2
-1.1
31 Texas Tech 1.7

6.1
4.4

90
6-0
-1.2
32 Nebraska 0.5

6.3
5.8

60
5-1
-1.5
33 Texas 0.3

5.9
5.6

55
4-2
-1.6
34 Penn State 0.8

5.5
4.7

70
4-2
-1.7
35 Kansas State 0.6

6.1
5.5

55
2-4
-1.8
36 Arizona 0.8

5.8
5.0

75
3-2

-1.8
37 North. Illinois 0.7

6.4
5.7

85
6-0
-1.8
38 Iowa
1.0


5.5
4.5

80
4-2
-1.8
39 Northwestern 0.4

6.0
5.6

60
4-2
-1.8
40 Oregon State 0.6

6.5
5.9

75
5-1
-1.9
41 Tennessee -0.3

5.5
5.8

50
3-3
-1.9
42 TCU 0.5

5.2
4.7

60
3-3
-1.9
43 Pittsburgh 0.6

6.0
5.4

70
3-2
-1.9
44 Utah State
0.9


5.7
4.8


70

3-4

-2.0

45 West Virginia -0.4

5.5
5.9

50
3-3
-2.0
46 Oklahoma St. 1.3

6.0
4.7

105
4-1
-2.0
47 Maryland 1.9

6.7
4.8

125*
5-1
-2.0
48 Washington St. 0.1

5.6
5.5

55
4-3
-2.0
49 Fresno State 0.6

6.0
5.4

85
5-0
-2.0
50  Rutgers 0.5

5.6
5.1

70
4-2
-2.0
51 Boise State 0.5


5.8
5.3

70
4-2
-2.0
52 Arkansas 0.5

5.8
5.3

60
3-4
-2.1
53 Vanderbilt 1.3

6.5
5.2

95
3-3
-2.1
54 Georgia Tech -0.1

5.7
5.8

55
3-3
-2.2

55 Syracuse 0.4

5.7
5.3

65
3-3
-2.2
56 Indiana 1.1

6.6
5.5

90
3-3
-2.2
57 East Carolina 0.6

5.5
4.9

80
4-2
-2.2
58 Ball State 1.1

6.6
5.5

105
6-1
-2.2
59 Mississippi St.
0.7


6.4
5.7


75

3-3

-2.2

60 Kentucky -0.6

5.9
6.5

30
1-5
-2.2
61 Toledo 0.4

6.1
5.7

70
3-3
-2.3
62 Illinois 0.0

6.4
6.4

65
3-2
-2.3
63 Boston College -0.3

5.8
6.1

55*
3-3
-2.3
64 Iowa State -0.5

5.1
5.6

50
1-4
-2.3
65 Marshall  1.4

5.6
4.2

120
4-2
-2.6
66 Houston 1.1

6.5
5.4

125
5-0
-2.6
67 Bowling Green 0.8

6.4
5.6

100
5-2
-2.6
68 North Carolina -0.2

5.4
5.6

55
1-4
-2.7
69 N.C. State 0.1

5.4
5.3

70
3-3
-2.8
70 San Diego St. 0.0

5.5
5.5

75
3-3
-2.8
71 Virginia -0.6

4.5
5.1

55*
2-4
-2.8
72 Louis.-Lafayette 0.6

6.4
5.8

100
3-2
-2.8
73 Ohio 0.3

5.8
5.5

90

4-2

-2.8

74 South Alabama 0.4

6.1
5.7

90
2-3
-2.9
75 SMU -0.5

5.3
5.8

60
1-4
-2.9
76 Duke 0.8

6.2
5.4

110
4-2
-2.9
77 San Jose St. 0.6

6.1
5.5

95
3-3
-2.9

78 Cincinnati 1.4

6.1
4.7

130
4-2
-2.9
79 Minnesota -0.5

5.4
5.9

70
4-2
-3.0
80 California -1.4

5.3
6.7

30
1-5
-3.0
81 Navy 0.4

5.9
5.5

100
3-2
-3.0
82 Memphis 0.5

5.1
4.6

90
1-4
-3.0
83 Colorado -0.7

5.3
6.0

60
2-3
-3.1
84 Tulane -0.6

4.6
5.2

70
5-2
-3.1
85  Buffalo -0.7

5.0
5.7

70
4-2
-3.2
86 Wake Forest -0.2

4.8
5.0

80
3-3
-3.2
87 West. Kentucky 0.7

6.5
5.7

115*
4-2
-3.2
88 North Texas -0.6

5.4
6.0

70
3-3
-3.3
89 Wyoming 0.9

6.5
5.6

130
4-2
-3.4
90 Rice -0.6

5.0
5.6

80
4-2
-3.4
91 UNLV 0.0

5.7
5.7

100
4-2
-3.4
92 Nevada -2.0

5.1
7.1

50*
3-3
-3.6
93 Mid. Tennessee -0.7

4.8
5.5

70*
3-4
-3.6
94  Florida Atlantic  -0.4

4.9
5.3

75
2-5
-3.6
95 UTSA -0.2

5.6
5.8

80
2-5
-3.6
96 Tulsa -0.3

5.1
5.4

90
2-4
-3.8
97 Colorado State 0.0

6.2
6.2

100
2-4
-3.8
98 Arkansas State 0.1

6.2
6.1

110
3-3
-3.8

99 Louis.-Monroe 
-1.3


4.6
5.9


55*

3-4

-3.8
100 Texas State -0.2

4.8
5.0

100
3-3
-3.8
101 Hawaii -0.6

4.9
5.5

70
0-6
-3.9
102 Troy -0.6

6.1
6.7

90
4-3
-3.9
103 Connecticut -0.8

4.3
5.1

70
0-5
-3.9
104 Akron -1.1

4.8
5.9

60
1-6
-3.9
105  Kansas -0.7

4.4
5.1

90
2-3
-4.0
106 South Florida -1.1

4.3
5.4

70
2-4
-4.0
107 Purdue -1.5

4.4
5.9

55
1-5
-4.1
108  Cent. Michigan  -0.9

5.1
6.0

80
3-4
-4.1
109 Louisiana Tech 0.2

5.5
5.3

120
2-4
-4.2
110 Kent State -1.8

5.0
6.8


55
2-5
-4.2
111 Air Force -0.9

5.4
6.3

70
1-6
-4.2
112 Army -0.7

5.9
6.6

90
3-4
-4.2
113 New Mexico -0.4

6.6
7.0

110
2-4
-4.5
114 UAB
-0.7


5.9
6.6


100

2-4

-4.5

115   West. Michigan -1.4

4.5
5.9

60

0-7
-4.6
116 Fl. Int'l FIU  -2.6

3.8
6.4

50
1-5
-4.6
117 Southern Miss -0.9

4.5
5.4

100
0-5
-4.9
118 Idaho -2.2

4.7
6.9

70
1-6
-5.3
119 Temple -1.6

5.0
6.6

85
0-6
-5.3

120 Georgia State -1.1

5.2
6.3

100
0-6
-5.3
121 UTEP  -2.1

5.5
7.6

80
1-5
-5.5
122 Massachusetts -2.7

4.3
7.0

70
1-5
-5.8
123 East. Michigan  -2.1

5.2
7.3

100
1-5
-6.1
124 New Mexico St. -2.5

5.2
7.7

80

0-6

-6.1
125 Miami (Ohio) -2.4

3.7
6.1

90
0-6
-6.3

See our 2013 Preseason Rankings Here.

The ISandIS Network

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