Tuesday, October 08, 2013

International Fallout Due to Shutdown is Massive

See The International Fallout.

Public Debt is Under Guardianship of the U.S. Constitution and is Sacrosanct Against Default Regardless of the House of Reps

See Obama and the Debt.

Department of Justice Reigns in Civil Litigation Because of Shutdown

How is it possible that the Department of Justice unnecessarily allows itself to be brought to its knees by a bunch of power-hungry political extremists in the House of Representatives?

DOJ asks US attorneys to postpone or curtail civil litigation during shutdown.

Can the President of the United States Defy a Shutdown if Congress Passes No Funding Bill??

See the discussion at the Wall Street Journal Law Blog at If Congress Fails to Pass a Funding Bill, Can Obama Defy a Shutdown?

The Current US Coup d'Etat by the House of Representatives and the Question of Can a "Debt Ceiling" Be Ignored by the President? Absolutely. Those Who Do Not Play By the Rules are Ultimately Thrown Out of the Game, and that Means the House

Debra Cassens Weiss has the story at Can Obama ignore the debt ceiling? Three constitutional arguments provide a 'yes' answer.

The fact is that the House of Representatives is not playing according to the rules. Real life especially, just as any "game" or "sport", requires that those who do not play by the rules be thrown out of the game, sooner or later, because they endanger everyone else. That is an inexorable rule of life.

The legislature is nothing without the power of the executive.

Congress can only pass measures, nothing more, and must depend on the executive to enforce them. He can choose not to do so if there is a lack of good faith on the part of the legislature. Any branch of government that does not play by the rules can not expect the other branches to do so.

When, as now, a part of the legislature, such as the extremist faction of the House of Representatives, and the exceedingly weak groupie Republicans in that House, support a virtual coup d'etat, and usurp government functions of the executive, then the chief executive has ALL options open. All.

He could restart federal government and disband or ignore the House until a proper budget is passed and there is really nothing that the House could do about it. Nor can the Supreme Court do anything if the chief executive wields emergency powers. They are powerless without the good will of the President.

That solution is not an option anyone wants, but you have to distinguish power from prudence. The President, as any chief executive, has ultimate power.

The House has pushed its own power far beyond its limits and the inevitable backlash will send it back-pedaling, with a division of the Republican Party into two separate parties as the possible long-term result, i.e. a GOP of traditional Republicans holding to the rule of law and to long-standing American political and moral values, and a Tea Party of right wing extremists, scorning democracy, violating the rule of law and scoffing at the U.S. legal system.

Given the current situation, no good result for the Republican Party can be imagined, either internally, or among the voters.

They have simply gone too far and now stand on the edge of a cliff of their own making, once again showing that human stupidty and greed have no bounds.

The Debt Default Crisis and the Prophecy of the Bandersnatch Who Grabbed a Banker after a Federal Government Shutdown Closed the House of Representatives

Today, we received a most curious letter from a sender unknown, who left a rather strange photographic image titled as if it were from the National Snark Service, U..S.. Department of Jabberwocky, along with a rather bizarre poem that looked very similar to something we recognized as similar to Alice in Wonderland.

Our advisors suggested that both objects were undeciphered true prophecies long found in Jabberwocky and similar "allegedly" nonsense works of the writer Lewis Carroll, unexpectedly foretelling a similarly nonsensical appearing government shutdown and debt default crisis, led by a bandersnatch:
'bander' was...an archaic word for a 'leader' [so that]  a 'bandersnatch' [was] an animal that hunt[ed] the leader of a group".
In their analysis these advisors equate the "bandersnatch" with a modern Böhner ("a stupid mistake") going after a Barak ("a shining one") with a view to take his place, but ultimately being defeated and disgraced.

We share these objects with you for whatever it is worth:
"And the Banker, inspired with a courage so new
It was matter for general remark,
Rushed madly ahead and was lost to their view
 In his zeal to discover the Snark.

But while he was seeking with thimbles and care,
A Bandersnatch swiftly drew nigh
And grabbed at the Banker, who shrieked in despair,
 For he knew it was useless to fly.

He offered large discount—he offered a check
 (Drawn "to bearer") for seven-pounds-ten:
But the Bandersnatch merely extended its neck
And grabbed at the Banker again.

Without rest or pause—while those frumious jaws
Went savagely snapping around—
He skipped and he hopped, and he floundered and flopped,
Till fainting he fell to the ground.

The Bandersnatch fled as the others appeared
 Led on by that fear-stricken yell:
And the Bellman remarked "It is just as I feared!"
And solemnly tolled on his bell."
 -- with apologies to Lewis Carroll, The Hunting of the Snark

Affordable Health Care is Now a Reality in the USA: There is No Rational Way to Roll Back Obamacare Now, Once it Has Started

Eugene Robinson has a somewhat aggressively titled piece at the Washington Post in

Obamacare is here. Get used to it

but the article itself is quite factual in hitting the main and decisive points of discussion about affordable health care in the USA.

Banks Preparing for Eventuality of Government Debt Default

You have to be flexible and adaptive in this world. Just ask the bankers as Banks stuff ATMs with cash as debt ceiling deadline looms. At The Verge.

Time Warner Cable TWC Panders to Republican Extremists

Very sorry to see this. See Time Warner Cable sucks up to GOP on Obamacare to win support against major TV networks

Fareed Zakaria via Daily Kos Correctly Analyzes House Actions Leading to Government Shutdown as Unconstitutional

See Daily Kos and US Debt Ceiling Impasse is a Constitutional Crisis in the Making where Maynard writes, correctly in our opinion:
"But it's the ACA [Affordable Care Act] measure in this shutdown battle that has really roiled widespread protest against these tactics. In a CNN video editorial, Fareed Zakaria does a good job explaining why in simple terms.

In short, his argument is that: Because this is settled law that has already passed through congress, already been signed by the President, and already even been confirmed as constitutional by the Supreme Court, for the House - a single legislative body - to use the threat of default to overrule agreement with the Senate and the President in prior lawmaking, is to extra-constitutionally usurp powers it does not enjoy. Essentially, the House asserts a new postfacto veto authority over prior Senate and conference committee deliberations after reconciliation and passage. Even a law agreed upon by all three branches of government, as is the case of the ACA, could - after the fact - be 'vetoed' by only the House of Representatives simply with the procedural move of refusing to pass a budget or continuing resolution.
This appears unconstitutional. Article I Section VII requires that budgetary bills originate in the House, where they are debated in the Senate. Differences between House and Senate Bills are reconciled in conference committee. The final bill passed is then sent to the President for a signature or vetoed.
Article IV Section I ('full faith and credit') of the US Constitution demands the financial solvency of states, and provides the judiciary with the authority to resolve private financial disputes.
The Fourteenth Amendment clearly states that US Federal debt is sacrosanct and must be honored. This was affirmed in 1935 by the Supreme Court in Perry v. United States.
The Fourteenth Amendment, in its fourth section, explicitly declares: 'The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law, ... shall not be questioned.' While this provision was undoubtedly inspired by the desire to put beyond question the obligations of the government issued during the Civil War, its language indicates a broader connotation. We regard it as confirmatory of a fundamental principle which applies as well to the government bonds in question, and to others duly authorized by the Congress, as to those issued before the amendment was adopted. Nor can we perceive any reason for not considering the expression 'the validity of the public debt' as embracing whatever concerns the integrity of the public obligations."
We conclude that the Joint Resolution of June 5, 1933, in so far as it attempted to override the obligation created by the bond in suit, went beyond the congressional power.
There is absolutely no rational argument that either legislative body in congress has the authority to withhold fulfilling its constitutional fiduciary responsibilities for the sole purpose of exacting policy concessions otherwise unrealizable through normal legislative practice. Funding the government is explicitly their job. For one legislative body to refuse to fund government without policy concessions from either another legislative body, the Executive, or Judicial clearly expropriates authority in an extra-constitutional manner and thus violates the balance of powers our founders initially intended." [emphasis added]
Not only that, but as we noted in our previous posting,

Government Shutdown Crisis Planned in Secret, Months in Advance by Republican Anarchists: A Criminal Conspiracy?

the criminal "conspirators against rights" in the House of Representatives and those outside of it should be sent to jail.

Week 7 2013 College Football FBS Game Predictions by SportPundit

Week 7 2013 College Football FBS Game Predictions by SportPundit 

Our stats for the season after Week 6 are 290-78 (79%) in calling the winner and 189-141-4 (57%) against the spread.

Below are our College Football Predictions for Week 7 2013 relying on YPPSYS, our Yards Per Play System and our FBS Ratings and Rankings of all 125 Teams after Week 6 of the 2013 Season.

Skip the indented material if you are already familiar with it. 
What makes a good prognosticator? Confidence and/or Accuracy?
And how about keeping all those conference changes straight?
Caveat emptor (Buyer beware): We make this material available in good fun out of interest for the sport of college football. Please do not rely on our material to place bets or wagers of any kind. No one knows the exact outcome of a game or a season before it is played and that is what makes it so interesting. We disclaim any and all liability for the consequences of anyone relying in any way upon our postings, analysis, links or reasoning - for which we make no warranty of accuracy. May the best team win
YPPSYS means "yards per play system", as that is our main ranking component, based primarily on stats at cfbstats.com, but we also use schedule difficulty and conference rankings as based on calculations e.g. at Massey Ratings. At YPPSYS, we regard a difference of one rating point to be worth about 7 points on the scoreboard, a calculation, of course, that is not absolute, given home field advantages, etc. We calculate the home field advantage at an average of about 3 points.
The betting lines ("odds" or "spread") used here were taken from the opening line at the College Football Prediction Tracker as of Monday, October 7, 2013, 10:30 AM, or if not found there then, from the opening lines at Oddsshark.com. MIssing odds are added later as the opening line for each game.

Thursday, October 10, 2013

Rutgers at Louisville
The Cardinals are favored over the Scarlet Knights by 17 points.
Our call: 40-21 for Louisville.

San Diego State at Air Force
The Aztecs are favored over the Falcons by 5 points.
Our call: 31-24 for San Diego State.

Arizona at USC
The Trojans are favored over the Wildcats by 6 points.
Our call: 28-23 for Southern Cal.

Friday, October 11, 2013

Temple at Cincinnati
The Bearcats are favored over the Owls by 19 points.
Our call: 37-21 for Cincinnati.

Saturday, October 12, 2013

Missouri at Georgia
The Bulldogs are favored over Tigers by 11 points.
Our call: 42-27 for Georgia.

Oklahoma at Texas
The Sooners are favored over the Longhorns by 11.5 points.
Our call: 34-24 for Oklahoma.

Iowa State at Texas Tech
The Red Raiders are favored over the Cyclones by 17 points.
Our call: 35-23 for Texas Tech.

Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech
The Hokies are favored over the Panthers by 7 points.
Our call: 31-17 for Virginia Tech.

South Florida at Connecticut
The Huskies are favored over the Bulls by 6 points.
Our call: 24-23 for South Florida.

Indiana at Michigan State
The Spartans are favored over the Hoosiers by 6 points.
Our call: 24-17 for Michigan State.

Memphis at Houston
The Cougars are favored over the Tigers by 10.5 points.
Our call: 28-24 for Houston.

Eastern Michigan at Army
The Black Knights are favored over the Eagles by 7 points.
Our call: 38-26 for Army.

Nebraska at Purdue
The Huskers are favored over the Boilermakers by 14.5 points.
Our call: 38-23 for the Cornhuskers.

Kansas at TCU
The Horned Frogs are favored over the Jayhawks by 24 points.
Our call: 35-14 for TCU.

South Carolina at Arkansas
The Gamecocks are favored over the Razorbacks by 7 points.
Our call: 35-23 for South Carolina.

Navy at Duke
The Blue Devils are favored over the Midshipmen by 3.5 points.
Our call: 31-30 for Navy.

Western Carolina at Auburn
The Tigers are favored over the Catamounts by 43.5 points.
Our call: 52-10 for Auburn.
Here, just for your info, is how we calculated our call. The Catamounts lost to Middle Tennessee by 21 points 45-24, i.e. 3 TDs, and to Virginia Tech by  42 points 45-3, i.e. 6 TDs, which fits "perfectly" into our rating system, which after the 6th week rates the Hokies at -0.3 rating points and the Blue Raiders at -3.3 points. Since 1 rating point in our system equals 7 points, we can rate Western Carolina at -6.3 points points based on those two scores. Since we rate Auburn at -0.7 rating points, this makes them 5.6 rating points better than the Catamounts, and 5.6 x 7 = 39 scoreboard points plus the ca. 3-point home field advantage makes 42. The Auburn defense is not as good as that of Virginia Tech, so more points will arguably be scored here than in that game by Western Carolina. As more points are scored by both teams, it becomes more and more difficult for the winning team to beat large spreads, so we call the game by 42 points and thus side here with Western Carolina on the spread. Whether it turns out that way or not remains to be seen.

Central Michigan at Ohio
The Bobcats are favored over the Chippewas by 10.5 points.
Our call: 34-17 for Ohio.

Buffalo at Western Michigan
The Bulls are favored over the Broncos by 7.5 points.
Our call: 30-23 for Buffalo.

Miami of Ohio at Massachusetts
The Minutemen are favored over the Redhawks by 2.5 points.
Our call: 24-23 for Massachusetts. Both teams are 0-5 and neither team has scored more than 14 points in any game.

Kent State at Ball State
The Cardinals are favored over the Golden Flashes by 11 points.
Our call: 41-24 for Ball State.

Boston College at Clemson
The Tigers are favored over the Eagles by 21 points.
Our call: 45-28 for Clemson.

Florida at LSU
The Tigers are favored over the Gators by 6.5 points.
Our call: 27-26 for LSU.

Baylor at Kansas State
The Bears are favored over the Wildcats by 10.5 points.
Our call: 51-24 for Baylor.

Northwestern at Wisconsin
The Badgers are favored over the Wildcats by 9.5 points.
Our call: 37-27 for Wisconsin.

San Jose State at Colorado State
The game is seen as even.
Our call: 27-26 for Colorado State.

Virginia at Maryland
The Terrapins are favored over the Cavaliers by 4 points.
Our call: 31-13 for Maryland.

Syracuse at North Carolina State
The Wolfpack is favored over the Orange by 4.5 points.
Our call: 31-24 for NC State.

Troy at Georgia State
The Trojans are favored over the Panthers by 16 points.
Our call: 41-24 for Troy.

East Carolina at Tulane
The Pirates are favored over the Green Wave by 11 points.
Our call: 24-20 for East Carolina.

New Mexico at Wyoming
The Cowboys are favored over the Lobos by 10 points.
Our call: 45-33 for Wyoming.

Oregon at Washington
The Ducks are favored over the Huskies by 10.5 points.
Our call: 34-27 for Oregon.

Rice at UTSA (Texas San Antonio)
The Owls are favored over the Roadrunners by 3.5 points.
Our call: 28-27 for UTSA.

Michigan at Penn State
The Wolverines are favored over the Nittany Lions by 1 point.
Our call: 31-27 for Michigan.

Akron at Northern Illinois
The Huskies are favored over the Zips by 21.5 points.
Our call: 41-24 for Northern Illinois.

Marshall at Florida Atlantic
The Thundering Herd is favored over the Owls by 13 points.
Our call: 27-20 for Marshall.

Stanford at Utah
The Cardinal is favored over the Utes by 10 points.
Our call: 34-27 for Stanford.

Alabama at Kentucky
The Crimson Tide is favored over the Wildcats by 27 points.
Our call: 37-17 for Alabama.

Middle Tennessee at North Texas
The Mean Green are favored over the Blue Raiders by 4.5 points.
Our call: 31-24 for North Texas.

Georgia Tech at Brigham Young
The Cougars are favored over the Yellow Jackets by 4 points.
Our call: 30-21 for BYU.

Louisiana-Monroe at Texas State
The Bobcats are favored over the Warhawks by 7 points.
Our call: 31-20 for Texas State.

Idaho at Arkansas State
The Red Wolves are favored over the Vandals by 24 points.
Our call: 37-28 for Arkansas State.

Bowling Green at Mississippi State
The Bulldogs are favored over the Falcons by 8.5 points.
Our call: 34-27 for Mississippi State.

UAB at Florida International FIU
The Blazers are favored over the  Panthers by 7 points.
Our call: 31-24 for FIU.

Boise State at Utah State
The Broncos are favored over the Aggies by 7.5 points.
Our call: 31-27 for Utah State.

Hawaii at UNLV
The Rebels are favored over the Warriors by 6.5 points.
Our call: 30-21 for UNLV.

Tulsa at UTEP
The Golden Hurricane is favored over the Miners by 10 points.
Our call: 34-27 for Tulsa.

Texas A&M at Mississippi
The Aggies are favored over Ole Miss by 5 points.
Our call: 41-31 for Texas A&M.

Colorado at Arizona State
The Sun Devils are favored over the Buffaloes by 24 points.
Our call: 38-24 for Arizona State.

California at UCLA
The Bruins are favored over the Bears by 23 points.
Our call: 49-24 for UCLA.

Oregon State at Washington State
The game is seen as even.
Our call: 34-27 for Washington State.

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