Monday, September 10, 2012

College Football Predictions for FBS Week 3 2012 by SportPundit and the Yards Per Play System YPPSYS

Update: Here is the text we have added to the various games below:

"Update: The College Football Prediction Tracker, Monday, September 10, 2012  5:27:35 PM,  indicates that Alabama is favored by 19.5 points (the opening line had been 13). There was no line when we posted our predictions."

"Update: The College Football Prediction Tracker, Monday, September 10, 2012 5:27:35 PM,  indicates that San Jose State was favored by 16.5 in the opening line, but that dropped to 10.5 points. Recall that the betting line is not necessarily how those who set the line think the game will actually turn out, but rather is set a level which leads to equal betting on both sides for both teams. Hence, changes in the line are responses to betting behavior but say nothing concrete about who will actually win the game. Indeed, the line often has in fact moved in the wrong direction when the final score is known, so caveat emptor in predicting game outcomes."  
_________

Below are our predictions for Week 3 of FBS college football play in the 2012 regular season.
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In making the predictions we use the YPPSYS yards per play system in which 1 rating point on our 2012 College Football Rankings FBS After Week 1 of Play = ca. 7 scoreboard points (just a rough estimate we use) and a home field advantage is worth 3 points. We estimate the score by using the sum of yards per play stats on both teams with a sum of about 21-22 for both offense and defense (both teams added together) as the average. This corresponds to a ca. average winning score of about 37-16, so that higher total ypp stat sums lead to higher score predictions and lower total ypp stat sums lead to lower score predictions. We then usually try to find scores that are typical in the suggested range.

The lines used this week were taken from the Rivals Yahoo Sports NCAAF Live Odds Pointspreads as of September 10, 2012 10:24 a.m. EDT. These are "moving lines" that can change at any time, but we do not adjust our predictions for that, but rather take the line as of a given date and time as given.

Caveat emptor (Buyer beware): We make this material available in good fun out of interest for the sport of college football. Please do not rely on our material to place bets or wagers of any kind. No one knows the exact outcome of a game or a season before it is played and that is what makes it so interesting. We disclaim any and all liability for the consequences of anyone relying in any way upon our postings, analysis, links or reasoning - for which we make no warranty of accuracy. May the best team win.

The visiting team is listed first, then the home team
e.g. Team A (visitor) v. Team B (home): B is favored by X points



Thursday, September 13, 2012

Rutgers v. South Florida: Bulls favored by 9.5 points
Our call: 30-14 for South Florida. Our stats favor South Florida by 13 plus the home field advantage makes 16.    Result:


Friday, September 14, 2012

Washington State v. UNLV: Cougars favored by 11.5 points
Our call: 24-21 for Washington State. Our stats favor the Cougars by 5 minus the home field advantage.    Result:


Saturday, September 15, 2012

Wake Forest v. Florida State: Seminoles favored by 25 points
Our call: 36-13 for Florida State. Our stats favor the Seminoles by 20 plus the home field advantage.     Result: -

Bethune-Cookman v. Miami of Florida (Beyond the Bets has Miami by 32)
Our call: 41-14 for Miami of Florida.    Result: -
 

Virginia Tech v. Pittsburgh: Hokies favored by 12 points
Our call: 34-21 for Virginia Tech. Our stats favor the Hokies by 15.5 minus the Pitt home field advantage.    Result: -

TCU v. Kansas: Horned Frogs favored by 21 points
Our call: 40-14 for TCU. Our stats favor TCU by 29 points minus the home field advantage.  Result: -

Northern Illinois v. Army: Huskies favored by 2.5 points
Our call: 30-17 for Northern Illinois. Our stats favor the Huskies by 15 minus the home field advantage.    Result: -

Arkansas State v. Nebraska: Huskers favored by 24 points
Our call: 49-31 for the Cornhuskers. Our stats favor the Huskers by 15 plus the home field advantage.       Result: -

LA Lafayette v. Oklahoma State: Cowboys favored by 23 points
Our call: 37-24 for Oklahoma State. Our stats favor the Cowboys by 16 plus the home field advantage.  Result:

Charleston Southern v. Illinois (Beyond the Bets has the Illini by 38)
Our call
:  51-7 for Illinois.   Result: - 

Western Michigan v. Minnesota: Golden Gophers favored by 3 points
Our call:  23-21 for Minnesota. Our stats favor the Broncos by 3 points minus the home field advantage.  Result: -

California v. Ohio State Buckeyes favored by 17.5 points
Our call: 37-21 for Ohio State. Our stats favor the Buckeyes by 13 plus the home field advantage.   Result: -

Eastern Michigan v. Purdue Boilermakers favored by 23 points
Our call: 33-14 for Purdue. Our stats favor the Boilermakers by 16 plus the home field advantage.    Result: -

LA Monroe v. Auburn Tigers favored by 16.5 points
Our call:  27-24 for Auburn. Our stats favor the Warhawks by 5.5 points minus the Auburn home field advantage, but those stats reflect Monroe's unexpected upset of Arkansas last week It is hard to image Monroe beating SEC teams on two successive weekends, but one has to be careful. Result:

Connecticut v. Maryland  UConn favored by 2 points
Our call: 17-9 for Maryland. Our stats favor the Terrapins by 5.5 plus the home field advantage.   Result:

Presbyterian v. Vanderbilt (Beyond the Bets has Vandy by 34)
Our call
: 44-7 for Vanderbilt  Result:

Furman v. Clemson (Beyond the Bets has Clemson by 37.5)
Our call
: 41-14 for Clemson.    Result:

Tennessee Tech v. Oregon (Beyond the Bets has the Ducks by 49.5)
Our call
: 63-7 for Oregon.    Result:

Alabama v. Arkansas  Crimson Tide favored by ?? (no line yet at the time of this posting) points (Beyond the Bets has Alabama by 3.5) - Update: The College Football Prediction Tracker, Monday, September 10, 2012  5:27:35 PM,  indicates that Alabama is favored by 19.5 points (the opening line had been 13).There was no line when we posted our predictions.
Our call: 35-24 for Alabama. Our stats favor the Crimson Tide by 14 minus the home field advantage.     Result:

Virginia v. Georgia Tech  Yellow Jackets favored by 10 points
Our call: 31-27 for Georgia Tech. Our stats favor Georgia Tech by 1.5 plus the home field advantage.   Result:

Texas A&M v. SMU  Aggies favored by 13 points
Our call: 30-24 for Texas A&M. Our stats favor the Aggies by 9 minus the home field advantage.   Result:

North Carolina v. Louisville  Cardinals favored by 3.5 points
Our call: 31-23 for Louisville. Our stats favor the Cardinals by 5 points plus the home field advantage.    Result:

East Carolina v. Southern Miss  Eagles favored by 9.5 points
Our call: 40-24 for Southern Miss. Our stats favor the Golden Eagles by 12.5 plus the home field advantage.  Result:

Massachusetts v. Michigan  Wolverines favored by 45.5 points
Our call: 48-7 for Michigan. Our stats favor the Wolverines by 38 plus the home field advantage.   Result:

Boston College v. Northwestern  Wildcats favored by 4 points
Our call: 37-21 for Northwestern. Our stats favor the Wildcats by 13 plus the home field advantage.   Result:

Navy v. Penn State   Nittany Lions favored by 5.5 points
Our call: 30-24 for Penn State. Our stats favor Penn State by 2 plus the home field advantage, but we side with the Nittany Lions who should have won last weekend.   Result:

Morgan State v. Akron (Beyond the Bets has the Zips by 13.5)
Our call
: 31-10 for Akron.    Result:

Northern Iowa v. Iowa (Beyond the Bets has Iowa by 24.5)
Our call
: 20-13 for Iowa. The Panthers lost at Wisconsin 21-26.  Result:

Stony Brook v. Syracuse (Beyond the Bets has the Orange by 28)
Our call
: 38-7 for Syracuse.    Result:

Miami of Ohio v. Boise State  Broncos favored by 20.5 points
Our call: 31-7 for Boise State. Our stats favor Boise State by 21 plus the home field advantage.   Result:

Florida International (FIU) v. UCF  Knights favored by 16.5 points
Our call: 39-17 for UCF. Our stats favor the Knights by 19 plus the home field advantage.  Result:

Portland State  v. Washington (Beyond the Bets has the Huskies by 34)
Our call
: 42-14 for Washington.    Result:

James Madison v. West Virginia (Beyond the Bets has Mountaineers by 40.5)
Our call
: 66-17 for West Virginia.    Result:

South Alabama v. North Carolina State  Wolfpack favored by 32 points
Our call: 30-7 for N.C. State. Our stats favor the Wolfpack by 20 points plus the home field advantage.    Result:

Cal Poly v. Wyoming (Beyond the Bets has the Cowboys by 17.5)
Our call
: 31-17 for Wyoming.  Result:

UTSA v. Georgia State (Beyond the Bets has Georgia State by 1.5)
Our call
: 31-27 for UTSA. The Panthers lost 51-13 last week at Tennessee.   Result:

Florida v. Tennessee  Vols favored by 2.5 points
Our call: Volunteers 27-24. Our stats favor the Gators by 1 minus the home field advantage. It's a toss-up.   Result:

Ohio v. Marshall   Bobcats favored by 6.5 points
Our call: 38-24 for Ohio. Our stats favor the Bobcats by 17 minus the home field advantage, but Ohio lost at Marshall in 2010.  Result:

North Carolina Central v. Duke (Beyond the Bets has Duke by 24)
Our call
: 47-13 for Duke.    Result:

Sam Houston State v. Baylor (Beyond the Bets has Baylor by 24)
Our call
: 35-21 for Baylor.    Result:

New Mexico v. Texas Tech  Red Raiders favored by 34 points
Our call: 39-17 for Texas Tech. Our stats favor Texas Tech by 19 plus the home field advantage.   Result:

North Texas v. Kansas State  Wildcats favored by 28.5 points
Our call: 41-20 for K-State. Our stats favor the Wildcats by 18 plus the home field advantage.   Result:

Arizona State v. Missouri  Tigers favored by 7 points
Our call: 31-24 for Arizona State. Our stats favor the sun Devils by 10.5 points minus the home field advantage.   Result:

Delaware State v. Cincinnati (Beyond the Bets has the Bearcats by 41)
Our call
: 49-7 for Cincinnati.    Result:

Middle Tennessee State v. Memphis  Blue Raiders favored by 3.5 points
Our call:  31-30 for Memphis. Our stats favor the Blue Raiders by 1 point minus the home field advantage.  Result:

Nicholls State v. Tulsa (Beyond the Bets has Tulsa by 34.5)
Our call
: 48-7 for Tulsa.    Result:

Mississippi State v. Troy  Bulldogs favored by 16.5 points
Our call: 41-24 for Mississippi State. Our stats favor the Bulldogs by 19 points minus the home field advantage.  Result:

Rice v.  Louisiana Tech Bulldogs favored by 20.5 points
Our call: 41-33 for Louisiana Tech. Our stats favor the Bulldogs by 5.5 points plus the home field advantage.   Result:

Bowling Green v. Toledo  Rockets favored by 6 points
Our call: 38-31 for Toledo. Our stats favor the Rockets by 3.5 points plus the home field advantage.  Result:

Western Kentucky v. Kentucky  Wildcats favored by 7 points
Our call: 28-27 for the Hilltoppers. Our stats favor the Hilltoppers by 4 minus the home field advantage.   Result:

UAB v. South Carolina Gamecocks favored by 33.5 points
Our call: 44-17 for South Carolina. Our stats favor South Carolina by 24 plus the home field advantage.    Result:

Northwestern State v. Nevada (Beyond the Bets has Nevada by 24)
Our call
: 38-13 for Nevada.    Result:

USC v. Stanford  Trojans favored by 10 points
Our call: 34-21 for USC. Our stats favor the Trojans by 15 minus the home field advantage. As a Stanford alum, it looks this year like the firepower is lacking for the Cardinal at key positions.   Result:

Florida Atlantic v. Georgia  Bulldogs favored by 43 points
Our call: 44-10 for Georgia. Our stats favor Georgia by 31.5 plus the home field advantage.   Result:

Idaho v. LSU  Tigers favored by 42.5 points
Our call: 41-7 for LSU. Our stats favor the Tigers by 31-5 plus the home field advantage.  Result:

Colorado v. Fresno State  Bulldogs favored by 14.5 points
Our call: 41-17 for Fresno State. Our stats favor the Bulldogs by 22.5 points plus the home field advantage.  Result:

North Dakota v. San Diego State (Beyond the Bets has the Aztecs by 20)
Our call
: 41-20 for San Diego State.    Result:

Western Illinois v. Iowa State (Beyond the Bets has the Cyclones by 29)
Our call
: 31-7 for Iowa State.    Result:

New Mexico State v. UTEP  Miners favored by 12.5 points
Our call: 35-26 for UTEP. Our stats favor the Miners by 6 points plus the home field advantage.  Result:

Ball State v. Indiana  Hoosiers favored by 3.5 points
Our call: 31-28 for Ball State. Our stats favor Ball State by 6 minus the home field advantage.   Result:

Notre Dame v. Michigan State  Spartans favored by 3.5 points
Our call: 27-21 for Michigan State. Our stats favor the Spartans by 3 plus the home field advantage.   Result:
  
Utah State v. Wisconsin  Badgers favored by 13.5 points
Our call: 24-23 for Wisconsin. Our stats favor the Aggies by 3 minus the home field advantage.  Result:

Colorado State v. San Jose State  Spartans favored by 10.5 points
Our call: 27-10 for San Jose State. Our stats favor the Spartans by 13 plus the home field advantage. Update: The College Football Prediction Tracker, Monday, September 10, 2012 5:27:35 PM,  indicates that San Jose State was favored by 16.5 in the opening line, that dropped to 10.5 points. Recall that the betting line is not necessarily how those who set the line think the game will actually turn out, but rather is set a level so that the betting is equal on both sides for both teams. Hence, changes in the line are responses to betting behavior but say nothing concrete about who will actually win the game. Indeed, the line often has in fact moved in the wrong direction when the final score is known.   Result:

Texas v. Mississippi  Longhorns favored by 10.5 points
Our call: 31-30 for Texas. Our stats favor the Longhorns by 3 minus the home field advantage. It's a toss-up.  Result:

BYU v. Utah  Cougars favored by 3.5 points
Our call: 20-17 for BYU. Our stats favor Brigham Young by 6 minus the home field advantage.  Result:

South Carolina State v. Arizona (Beyond the Bets has the Wildcats by 24.5)
Our call
: 44-7 for Arizona.    Result:

Houston v. UCLA  Bruins favored by 17 points
Our call: 49-13 for UCLA. Our stats favor UCLA by 33 plus the home field advantage.  Result:

Lamar v. Hawaii (Beyond the Bets has the Warriors by 27.5)
Our call
: 38-10 for Hawaii.    Result:






Organic Schmorganic? Stanford Food Study Questions Advantages of Organic Meats and Produce

Two articles on the subject of the myth of "organic foods" being better for you are worth reading at the New York Times, as a Stanford study questions various unsupported beliefs about organic meats and produce:
Hat tip to CaryGEE.

We doubt the study will have much effect on the organic food market, which is an increasingly gathering snowball in its own justified avalanche, for reasons detailed in Cohen's article.

European Central Bank ECB to Buy Short-Term Sovereign Bonds as Europe Acknowledges that EU and Euro Zone Nations Must Work Together to Compete with "Asia Cluster"

The European Central Bank in deciding to buy short-term sovereign bonds of European nations shows that Europe and the EU are acknowledging that individual nations in Europe must work together to arrive at workable solutions to financial problems in the Euro Zone.

See at CNBC Katy Barnato's article at Germany Cannot Be 'Leader of the World': Italy's Prodi.

Hat tip to CaryGEE.

We wrote about the necessity of bond sales in Europe last year at Billionaire George Soros Says Euro Bonds are the Solution to Europe's Financial Problems: A Spiegel Interview with the Financial Genius.




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