Saturday, December 26, 2009

Champs Sports Bowl : Miami of Florida vs. Wisconsin : YPPSYS NCAA FBS College Football Bowl Game Predictions 2009 / 2010 Season

December 29, 2009, Tuesday

13. Champs Sports Bowl, Orlando, FL, Miami of Florida vs. Wisconsin, 8:00 pm

The offenses and the defenses of Miami of Florida and Wisconsin are virtually even, except that the Hurricanes gain more yards through the air and Wisconsin more on the ground. Pass interceptions cost Miami the games against North Carolina and Clemson and a clearly better Virginia Tech team hounded sophomore quarterback Jacory Harris all day. For Wisconsin to win, they will have to stop the Miami passing game or they will lose.
Our call: Miami of Florida started out as a 6 point favorite but the line is down to 3 points at the time of this posting. YPPSYS ranks the Hurricanes 17th with a rating of 0.1 and the Badgers 40th with a rating -0.7, a difference of 0.8 x 9 = 7.2 points. The schedule-adjusted margin of victory gives Miami of Florida a rating of 7.5 and Wisconsin 6.1, a difference of only 1.4 points.
We split the difference and call this game for the Hurricanes 31-27.

See previous posts for important legal notices regarding these prognostications.

Eaglebank Bowl : Temple vs. UCLA : YPPSYS NCAA FBS College Football Bowl Game Predictions 2009 / 2010 Season

December 29, 2009, Tuesday

12. Eaglebank Bowl, Washington, D.C., Temple vs. UCLA, 4:30 pm

In spite of its 35-17 loss to the Ohio Bobcats in its last regular season game, the Temple Owls had a Cinderella season, forging a nine-game winning streak up to the final game and finishing 9-3. UCLA finished 6-6 and is an average team in nearly every category. YPPSYS ranks Temple 54th and UCLA 56th going into this bowl contest. Our call: The opening line favored the Bruins by 4 points and this has risen to 6 points at the time of this posting. The margin of victory comparison is almost evened out by the difference in schedule difficulty, so that either team can legitimately win this game. We call it for Temple, 27-26.

See previous posts for important legal notices regarding these prognostications.

Independence Bowl : Texas A&M vs. Georgia : YPPSYS NCAA FBS College Football Bowl Game Predictions 2009 / 2010 Season

December 28, 2009, Monday

11. Independence Bowl, Shreveport, Louisiana, Texas A&M vs. Georgia, 5:00 pm

YPPSYS ranks Georgia 24th with a rating of -0.2 and Texas A&M 69th with a rating of -2.0, a difference of 1.8 x 9 = 16 points. Both teams have equally strong offenses but the Bulldogs have a bit better than average defense while the Aggies have a a very weak defense, so that A&M did well this season only against teams with weak defenses, while other teams blew them off the field. By comparative scores, Oklahoma State beat Georgia 24-10 and beat Texas A&M 36-31. However, in the present match-up, we see little chance that Texas A&M can keep up with the scoring of the opposing team, since its own offense will likely be stymied by the Georgia defense.
Our call: The opening line favored Georgia by 4 points and at the time of this posting the spread had risen to 7 points. Each team had a scant margin of victory this season, though Georgia faced a tougher schedule. We call it 38-27 for Georgia.

NCAA FBS College Football Bowl Game Predictions 2009 / 2010 utilize YPPSYS ratings and rankings (yards per play advantage - offense and defense, won-loss record, schedule of difficulty according to Massey Ratings) and YPPSYS II for the top 40 teams (YPPSYS II = YPPSYS I supplemented by MOV, margin of victory plus the schedule difficulty recalculated based on YPPSYS ratings).

YPPSYS COLLEGE FOOTBALL RATINGS AND RANKINGS - NCAA DIVISION I-A (FBS) are based on net yards per play advantage (NAYPPA), strength of schedule, defense and adjustment for losses through December 5, 2009, after Week 14 of regular season games.

NAYPPA = net yards per play advantage (YPP OFF minus YPP DEF)
YPP OFF = net yards per play gained on offense
YPP DEF = net yards per play allowed on defense
Schedule = Schedule difficulty thus far in the season according to Massey Ratings
(SchP=Schedule Partial)
YPP Team Statistics are based on data found at
cfbstats.com
Odds are taken from Todd Beck's College Football Prediction Tracker
as of Wednesday, December 16, 2009 9:42:07 AM

The prognostications cover numerous bowl games and great match-ups. Few games can be said to be mis-matched and ultimate winners are in doubt in many.

We make no warranties as to the truth or accuracy of our information. As always, we do this in good fun only - do not rely on our predictions for anything - and we disclaim any and all liability for any reliance upon our prognostications. Football is sport. May the best team win.

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