Wednesday, September 02, 2009

College Football Game Predictions Week 1 2009 Season

The college football season opens with some fantastic matchups that will set the tone for 2009. We have seldom seen the opening betting lines so greatly changed down the road as for this season-opening day, suggesting that it will be an exciting football season.

We predict here that USC will win the national championship this year, even though Pete Carroll has spectacularly announced that he will start true freshman Matt Barkley as the Trojan quarterback to open the season. See the YPPSYS pre-season rankings. Here are our college football predictions for the first week (Week 1) of NCAA college football. We take the odds from the
College Football Prediction Tracker (Wednesday, September 2, 2009, 9:27:14 AM).

We make no warranties as to the truth or accuracy of our information. As always, we do this in good fun only - do not rely on our predictions for anything - and we disclaim any and all liability for any reliance upon our prognostications. Football is sport. May the best team win.

THURSDAY, September 3, 2009

Bowling Green is the underdog at home by 7 points (opening line 4.5 points) against Troy State. The Falcons are coached by new head coach Dave Clawson, last year the offensive coordinator at Tennessee for a team that went 5-8 and had one of the worst offenses in the nation (115th). His offensive coordinator at Bowling Green is Warren Ruggiero, who was the quarterbacks coach at Kansas State last year. YPPSYS sees the Trojans as 9 points better, minus the Falcon 3-point home field advantage, making our call 30-24 for Troy.

North Carolina State is favored at home by 4.5 points over South Carolina (opening line 3 points). Last year the Wolfpack lost to South Carolina on the road 34-0 and after a bad mid-season of four straight losses then went on a tear in beating three of the best teams in the ACC Conference only to lose to Rutgers 29-23 in the Papajohns.com Bowl by frittering away a 23-19 4th quarter lead. YPPSYS makes the Gamecocks 12 point favorites, minus the home field advantage of 3, giving the nod to South Carolina by 9, but that is based on season statistics and not the excellent team that NC State fielded toward the end of the year. The reason for the Wolfpack resurgence last year was the emergence of now sophomore quarterback Russell Wilson, who put up spectacular numbers as the season progressed. Gamecock head coach Steve Spurrier is 7-1-1 against NC State and North Carolina. Here we go with the SEC and call it 35-34 for South Carolina.

Ball State is favored at home by 16 points over North Texas (the opening line was 23 points in favor of the Cardinals). By YPPSYS, Ball State should win by 51 points. Our call: 54-14 for Ball State who will not have unlearned football just because their former head coach, Brady Hoke, left for San Diego State. The new Ball State coach is Stan Parrish, the former offensive coordinator of a very strong offensive team, so that we expected continued top offensive performance.

19th viz. 18th-ranked Utah is favored at home by 20.5 points over Utah State (opening line 22.5 points). YPPSYS ranks Utah 11th and rates the Utes as 36 points better than the Aggies plus the home field advantage = 39 points. We call it 49-10 for Utah.

14th (AP) viz. 16th (USA Today) Ranked Boise State is favored at home by 3.5 points over 14th (USA Today) viz. 16th (AP) ranked Oregon (opening line 5.5 points). YPPSYS ranks Oregon 4th and Boise State 7th. In our opinion, the polls rank both teams too low, at 14th and 16th, but reversed in one poll as to the other. Ordinarily, one would have to go with Broncos and the infamous blue turf home field advantage, where the Broncos seldom lose. Our Call: 24-23 for the Ducks and their new head coach Chip Kelly, via his spread offense and the offensive talents of quarterback Jeremiah Masoli. The Broncos beat Oregon 37-32 on the road last year, losing Masoli to a concussion after the first half, but lost 17-16 to TCU in the Poinsetta Bowl to close out their past season, whereas Oregon came into its own under Masoli toward last season's end. They ripped Oregon State 65-38, a Beaver team that had the honor of being the only team to beat USC last year, and then dominated a strong Oklahoma State team offensively for 565 yards in a 42-31 Holiday Bowl win.

Our call: Villanova (FCS) over Temple 30-21
Our call: Kent State over Coastal Carolina (FCS) 34-14
Our call: Indiana over Eastern Kentucky (FCS) 34-28
Our call: North Dakota State (FCS) over Iowa State 31-24

FRIDAY, September 4, 2009

Tulane is the underdog at home by 13.5 points against Tulsa. YPPSYS rates Tulsa 39-40 points better than Tulane based on last year's stats, minus 3 points = 36 points. Even in the absence of Gus Malzahn, the Tulsa offense will be potent. We call it 45-9 for Tulsa.

Our call: Hawaii over Central Arkansas (FCS) 41-31

SATURDAY, September 5, 2009

5th-ranked Alabama is favored by 6 points over 7th-ranked Virginia Tech in a game to be played in Atlanta, which gives neither team the home field edge. The YPSSYS rating system makes Alabama a 9-point favorite in what looks like a defensive battle. We call it 20-10 for the Crimson Tide. The Hokies have one of the best coaches in college football in Frank Beamer - but so also does Alabama in Nick Saban, and the Tide has the superior players - at least on paper. Virginia Tech lost its season opener 27-22 to East Carolina last year and they will probably lose their opening game this year as well, although under Beamer's coaching, Virginia Tech always gets better and better as the season progresses (the Hokies are one of three FBS teams to win 10 games each of the last five seasons - the others are USC and Texas). As a Nebraska alumnus, it would actually be preferred that Virginia Tech beat Alabama so that the Huskers have the opportunity to upset the Hokies two weeks later, but that is not likely to happen. Worse for Nebraska, a Hokie loss to 'Bama would have Virginia Tech fired up for the Cornhuskers, because a 2nd loss early in the season would knock their season back substantially.

Arizona is favored at home by 14 points over Central Michigan (opening line 12 points) as Mike Stoops finally appears to have the Wildcats at a higher level. Last season the 8-5 Arizona team beat BYU 31-21 in the Holiday Bowl and was only 28 points away from a perfect season. The Chippewas also went 8-5 last season, but lost three straight games to finish the year, including a 24-21 loss to Florida Atlantic in the Motor City Bowl. YPPSYS makes Arizona an 18-point favorite. Our call: 32-14 for the Wildcats.

Auburn is favored at home by 13.5 points over Louisiana Tech. By YPPSYS, Auburn would be only a 3- point favorite, but Auburn will be a vastly different team this year than last as new head coach Gene Chizik and new offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn institute a run and play-action no huddle offense that topped the nation offensively at Tulsa the last two years. Louisiana Tech made great strides last year under head coach Derek Dooley, finishing with an unexpected 8-5 winning record in 2008, but Auburn will be a buzzsaw in 2009 and scare the living daylights out of their higher-ranked opponents in the SEC. We see the scoreboard lighting up a lot in this game and call it 44-30 for Auburn.

12th-ranked California is favored at home by 21.5 points over Maryland. The Golden Bears were 9-3 last year, including an unexpected road loss to Maryland 35-27. Although Cal finished the season with a 24-17 win over Miami of Florida in the Emerald Bowl, the win was not impressive. Maryland went 8-5 but was a mystery team in 2008, beating three ranked teams, but barely beating Delaware and even losing to Middle Tennessee State. The Terrapins closed out the season with a 42-35 win over Nevada in the Humanitarian Bowl. Cal will have to earn this one. Our call goes to Cal 38-21.

Clemson, which has been involved in "Girdle Gate" this autumn, is favored at home by 19 points over the Middle Tennessee State University Blue Raiders (opening line 21 points). Nearly every season the Tigers look great on paper - they initially had the nation's second-ranked recruiting class year before last - but they have not lived up to their potential. Last season it cost head coach Tommy Bowden his job, which was then taken over by Dabo Sweeney, with the result that top recruits decommitted and decimated what was regarded to be a great class. What is left? That remains to be seen. Last year highly regarded Clemson was thumped by Alabama 34-10 in their opener and never really recovered, finishing 7-6 with a 26-21 loss to Nebraska (9-4) in the Gator Bowl in a game that could have gone either way. By our calculations, Clemson should be a 3 TD favorite against Middle Tennessee State and we call it 35-14 for the Tigers.

Eastern Michigan is favored at home by 5 points over Army. YPPSYS rates these teams 110th and 111th respectively based on last year's performance, so that Eastern Michigan would ordinarily be favored by 3 because the home field advantage. However, the Black Knights this season will be running the triple-option behind freshman quarterback Trent Steelman and playing the highly successful Double-Eagle Defense of first-year army coach Rich Ellerson, who looks like a great coaching match for the loss-plagued Black Knights who were 3-9 last year. Eastern Michigan had an excellent offense last year and will continue to have one this year, but the defense is poor. We call it 34-31 for Army.

Illinois is favored at home by 7 points over Missouri (opening line 3 points). Based on last year's performance, Missouri would be rated 11 points better by YPPSYS, minus the 3 point home field advantage for the Illini, makes 8 points for Mizzou. So why is Illinois the favorite? First of all, last year's nationally top-ranked offensive coordinator (Rivals.com) Dave Christensen has left Mizzou to be the head coach at Wyoming. He has been replaced by David Yost, the quarterbacks coach the last 8 years. Secondly, Missouri lost its very productive quarterback Chase Daniel to graduation and will open the season with untested Blaine Gabbert as the signal-caller. Sophomore Gabbert last started a football game two years ago, so there is uncertainty. Gabbert was a 5-star recruit and has all the tools, including an incredible arm which has a range of 75 yards, so the test will be the actual game performance. We call it 44-41 for Mizzou.

Miami of Ohio is the underdog at home by 13.5 points against Kentucky. YPPSYS makes the Wildcats 20-point favorites minus the 3-point home field advantage for the Redhawks, so that we call it 24-7 for Kentucky.

Michigan is favored at home by 11.5 points over Western Michigan. Head coach Rich Rodriguez, whose 3-9 record last year was the worst in Wolverine history, continues to be embroiled in controversy at Michigan, one involving alleged excess practice sessions and the other a housing development-related law suit. The previous season the Broncos beat Illinois of the Big 10 23-17 and finished 9-4 after disappointing losses to Ball State and Rice, which give Michigan fans the hope that they will not again have to suffer the shame of an Appalachian State-like loss. Moreover, all 4 starters are gone from the Western Michigan secondary. By last year's performance, YPSSYS would rate Western Michigan the better team by 17 points and with the Big House advantage, Michigan would ordinarily still be a 14-point underdog, if they have not improved substantially over last year. We have members in the family who are Michigan graduates, so we give the Wolverines the sentimental edge 31-27, but the proof is in the pudding, and Michigan continues to be beset by problems. One must note, however, that Rodriguez was 3-8 in his first year at West Virginia and followed that season with a 9-4 record, ultimately building the Mountaineers into national championship contenders. Once - and if - he starts winning, much of the criticism will stop.

Nebraska is favored at home by 23 points over Florida Atlantic. As a die-hard Husker fan, we do not yet know what to make of the 2009 season, except for the knowledge that the Big Red system is again intact in Lincoln, and that the Cornhuskers will continue to improve every game and every season. Absolutely essential is that the defense improve by leaps and bounds, and that is assured under Pelini tutelage. YPPSYS makes the Huskers 14-point favorites over the Owls, plus the normal home field advantage of 3 points = 17 points. One must also be reminded that FAU's head coach is no slouch, a man named Howard Schnellenberger, whose Miami Hurricanes beat the Huskers in the infamous 1984 Orange Bowl 31-30 when Husker head coach Tom Osborne refused to take the PAT for the tie and a share of the national championship, and the Huskers then failed to convert the 2-point attempt in the last minute of the game. We think the Lincoln home field advantage via their tremendous fans may be worth 10 points if the Huskers play inspired football and call it 41-14 for the Huskers.

New Mexico State is favored at home by 3 points over Idaho (opening line 6 points). YPPSYS plus the home field advantage would give the nod to the Aggies by 18 points. Pat Spence writes at sports-odds.com that "with Coach DeWayne Walker heading into the program, no team in America will look more different than New Mexico State." It is thus difficult to assess what will happen there this season, but seeing as Walker is a protege of Pete Carroll of USC, it is bound to be good. We call it 35-17 for New Mexico State against the Vandals.

23rd-ranked Notre Dame is favored at home by 14.5 points over Nevada (opening line 10 points). Over the last decade Notre Dame has been the most overrated team in college football, only breaking their NCAA record of nine straight bowl game losses in their win over Hawaii last season in the Sheraton Hawaii Bowl. YPPSYS ranks the Fighting Irish 50th to start the season and Nevada 53rd, both with the same rating, so that we call this game only on the basis of the home field advantage, 31-28 for Notre Dame over the Wolf Pack.

Ohio is the underdog at home by 4 points against Connecticut (opening line 5 points). YPPSYS gives the nod to the Huskies by 13 points, minus the home field advantage for Ohio, makes 10 points. We call it 20-10 for UConn.

6th-ranked Ohio State is favored at home by 21 points over Navy (opening line 24 points). YPPSYS ranks Ohio State 20th and rates the Buckeyes 16 points better than the Midshipmen plus the 3 point home field advantage = 19 points. We call it 33-14 for Ohio State.

3rd-ranked Oklahoma is favored at home by 22 points over 20th (AP) and 24th-ranked (USA Today) BYU (opening line 25 points). YPPSYS ranks the Sooners 3rd as well and rates them 13 points better than the Cougars, plus home field advantage = 16 points. We call it 41-24 for Oklahoma over Brigham Young.

No handshakes here? On paper, this looks like a great game. 9th (AP) and 11th-ranked (USA Today) Oklahoma State is favored at home by 6 points over 13th-ranked Georgia. YPPSYS pre-season rankings have Georgia 5th and Oklahoma State 14th, rating the Bulldogs 7 points better than the Cowboys, minus the home field advantage = 4 points. We call it 45-41 for Georgia.

9th viz. 8th-ranked Penn State is favored at home by 27 points over Akron. YPPSYS rates the Nittany Lions 32 points better plus 3 for home field advantage = 35 points. We call it 42-7 for Penn State.

Purdue is favored at home by 11 points over Toledo (opening line 12.5 points). YPPSYS rates the Boilermakers 6 points better than the Rockets plus 3 for home field advantage = 9 points. We call it 30-21 for Purdue.

Syracuse is the underdog at home by 7 points against Minnesota (opening line 3.5 points). YPPSYS rates the Golden Gophers 11 points better than the Orangemen minus the home field advantage of 3 points = 8 points. We call it 21-13 for Minnesota.

Tennessee is favored at home by 30 points over Western Kentucky (opening line 27 points). YPPSYS rates the Vols 24 points better than the Hilltoppers plus 3 points for home field advantage = 27 points. We call it 34-7 for the Volunteers.

Texas is favored at home by 42 points over Louisiana-Monroe (opening line 43 points). YPPSYS rates Texas 45 points better than ULM plus 3 for home field advantage = 48 points. We call it 51-3 for the Longhorns.

Texas A&M is favored at home by 14.5 points over New Mexico (opening line 7 points). YPPSYS rates the Lobos 10 points better than the Aggies minus the Texas A&M home field advantage of 3 points = 7 points. Last year Texas A&M beat New Mexico on the road 28-22, but the Aggies finished 4-8 after the tough gauntlet of Big 12 competition in the South Division and did not appear to be an improving team under Mike Sherman's guidance. The Lobos lost to Utah by only 13-10 toward season's end but finished a disappointing 4-8, which brought on a new coach from Illinois, Mike Locksley, who is involved in a recent defamation suit against an attorney, but whose upscale football program shows signs of progress. We call it for New Mexico 35-28.

UAB is favored at home by 5.5 points over Rice (opening line 2.5 points). YPPSYS rates the Owls 19 points better than the Knights minus the home field advantage for UAB = 16 points for Rice. Rice was 10-3 last year and beat Western Michigan 38-14 in the Texas Bowl, whereas UAB was 4-8 with a season-closing 15-0 win at 3-7 UCF. However, UAB has been recruiting much stronger players than Neil Callaway originally had two years ago and the Knights will be much better as the year goes on. We therefore call it by only 1 TD 31-24 for Rice.

UCLA is favored at home by 19 points over San Diego State (opening line 17 points). YPPSYS rates the Bruins 16 points better than the Aztecs base on the previous season plus the home field advantage of 3 points = 19 points. However, San Diego State is now being coached by the former had coach at Ball State, Brady Hoke, who has already installed Brian Sipe, former Aztec QB great, as the quarterbacks coach, so you know things are moving forward for San Diego State. Obviously, you can not turn a 2-12 team that lost 70-7 to New Mexico and 63-14 to Utah last year into a winner instantly, but 4-8 UCLA was also no world-beater last season. We think that San Diego State will be much improved and call it 31-21 for UCLA.

USC is favored at home by 33.5 points over San Jose State (opening line 37 points). YPPSYS rates the Trojans 47 points better than Spartans plus 3 points for the home field advantage makes it a full 50 point spread. We call it for USC 56-0.

UTEP is favored at home by 8.5 points over Buffalo (opening line 4.5 points). YPPSYS rates Buffalo 1 point better than UTEP, but given the home field advantage, one would have to take UTEP. Last year Buffalo beat UTEP 42-17. We are Buffalo and Turner Gill fans and call it 27-17 for Buffalo.

Wake Forest is favored at home by 2 points over Baylor. YPPSYS rates the Bears as 2 points better than the Demon Deacons, so in view of the home field advantage which is actually only about 2.68 points, this game is a toss-up, in spite of the fact that rapidly improving Baylor (4-8 last year) under had coach Art Briles lost at home to Wake Forest in its opening game the past season 41-13. Recall that Wake Forest beat Mississippi last year and avenged a regular season 24-17 loss to Navy by beating the Midshipmen 29-19 in the inaugural EagleBank Bowl for an 8-5 season. We go with the better defense of Wake Forest and call the game 24-21 for Wake Forest.

Washington is the underdog at home by 17.5 points against 11th viz. 9th-ranked LSU. YPPSYS rates the Tigers 38 points better than the Huskies based on last year's performance., but the Huskies have a new head coach in the person of Steve Sarkisian, who came from USC, where he was the offensive coordinator, and there is no way to go but up from last year's 0-12 winless season. It would be quite amazing if Washington managed to keep down the loss margin to less than 3 TDs against LSU, as the current spread suggests they will. We call it 48-21 for LSU.

Washington State is the underdog at home by 16.5 points against Stanford (opening line 14.5 points). YPPSYS rates the Cardinal 31 points better than the Cougars, minus the home field advantage for Washington State = 28 points. We call it 42-14 for Stanford, who are in the process of building a football juggernaut under the direction of head coach Jim Harbaugh, and he should be helped by redshirt freshman quarterback Andrew Luck this year, but their secondary is still the big question-mark. Washington State should also be better this year under 2nd-year head coach Paul Wulff.

Wisconsin is favored at home by 16.5 points over Northern Illinois (opening line 14 points). YPPSYS rates Wisconsin 10 better than Northern Illinois plus the 3 point home field advantage = 13 points. We call it 40-27 for Wisconsin.

Other Games:

Our call: Northwestern over Towson (FCS) 49-13
Our call: Appalachian State (FCS) over East Carolina 35-34
Our call: Michigan State over Montana State (FCS) 41-10
Our call: West Virgina over Liberty (FCS) 42-9
Our call: 22nd viz. 21st-ranked Iowa over Northern Iowa (FCS) 35-28
Our call: Pittsburgh over Youngstown State (FCS) 40-14
Our call: 15th-ranked Georgia Tech over Jacksonville State (FCS) 40-21
Our call: Air Force over Nicholls State (FCS) 41-10
Our call: Boston College over Northeastern (FCS) 46-7
Our call: Oregon State over Portland State (FCS) 47-6
Our call: Wyoming over Weber State (FCS) 30-14
Our call: Mississippi State over Jackson State (FCS) 31-21
Our call: Southern Illinois (FCS) over Marshall 27-24
Our call: Virginia over William & Mary (FCS) 44-20
Our call: 21st-ranked North Carolina over Citadel (FCS) 44-17
Our call: Houston over Northwestern State (FCS) 56-14
Our call: Southern Miss over Alcorn State (FCS) 38-13
Our call: South Florida over Wofford (FCS) 38-17
Our call: Louisiana Lafayette over Southern (FCS) 40-24
Our call: Arkansas State over Mississippi Valley State (FCS) 38-14
Our call: Texas Tech over North Dakota (FCS) 42-24
Our call: Arkansas over Missouri State (FCS) 44-14
Our call: Kansas over Northern Colorado (FCS) 60-6
Our call: Richmond (FCS) over Duke 38-24
Our call: Nr. 1 ranked Florida over Charleston Southern 84-0
Our call: Kansas State over Massachusetts (FCS) 24-23
Our call: Vanderbilt over Western Carolina (FCS) 42-7
Our call: UCF over Samford (FCS) 28-7
Our call: Louisville over Indiana State (FCS) 34-17
Our call: SMU over Stephen F. Austin (FCS) 27-13
Our call: Fresno State over UC Davis (FCS) 38-10
Our call: UNLV over Sacramento State (FCS) 28-14
Our call: Arizona State over Idaho State (FCS) 47-7

SUNDAY, September 6, 2009

Memphis is the underdog at home by 17.5 points against 8th (AP) viz. 10th-ranked (USA Today) Mississippi. YPPSYS ranks Ole Miss 18th and rates Ole Miss as 24 points better, minus the home field advantage of the Tigers makes 21 points. Our call is 42-21 for the Rebels.

Colorado is favored at home by 11 points over Colorado State (opening line 9.5 points), but after this game, for the next ten years, the game will be played in neutral Denver. Last year the Buffs beat the Rams 38-17 and followed with wins over Eastern Washington and ranked West Virginia, but faded in the tough Big 12 Conference to finish 5-7 after a heartbreaking season-ending 40-31 loss to Nebraska, which rallied for the unlikely win on a closing minutes 57-yard field goal by Alex Henery and a 30-yard interception return by Ndamukong Suh. Our call is for the Buffaloes by 10, 34-24.

MONDAY, September 7, 2009

Rutgers is favored at home by 6 points over Cincinnati. YPPSYS rates the Bearcats 7 points better than the Scarlet Knights minus the 3 points for home field advantage = 4 points. We call it 27-23 for the Bearcats.

18th (AP) viz. 19th-ranked (USA Today) Florida State is favored at home by 6 points over Miami of Florida. YPPSYS ranks the Seminoles 21st and rates the Seminoles as 9 points better based on last year's performance, plus the home field advantage of 3, would ordinarily make them 12 point favorites over the Hurricanes. However, both the offensive and defensive coordinators at Miami are new this season: offensive coordinator Mark Whipple comes from NFL Pittsburgh, where he was quarterbacks coach - developing Ben Roethlisberger, and defensive coordinator John Lovett, who comes from North Carolina and numerous former college teams, both bringing a fresh wind to Miami, which always has a depth of talent, and where the right blend of coaching could make the Hurricanes a formidable team. We call it 31-30 for Miami.

THE 2009 YPPSYS (TM) PRE-SEASON DIVISION I-A (FBS) COLLEGE FOOTBALL RATINGS and RANKINGS PREDICT A USC NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP

We predict a USC national championship in 2009, based on the YPPSYS Ratings and Rankings.

THE YPPSYS (TM) DIVISION I-A FBS 2009 PRE-SEASON COLLEGE FOOTBALL RATINGS and RANKINGS are based on performance ratings and rankings from the preceding season. Yppsys ratings and rankings are a YPP SYStem (yards per play system) primarily determined by four variables: 1) the net average yards per play gained vs. lost by the offense and defense of any team; 2) strength of schedule; 3) weakness of the defense; and 4) won-loss record. These figures must be adjusted for each team as the season progresses.
  • NAYPPA (TM) (Net Average Yards Per Play Advantage) is calculated according to statistical data available at CFBSTATS.COM. A team that gains 6 yards per play on offense and gives up 4 yards per play on defense has a NAYPPA of 2.0 - enough some years for a national champion.
  • Schedule Difficulty is the ranking according to Massey Ratings. A multiple of .01 of the schedule ranking (rounded up or down) is subtracted from the NAYPPA of Division I-A FBS schools. For Division I-AA FCS and Division II schools the schedule difficulty multiple is .015 and for Division III schools and the NAIA the multiple is .02. For example, if a school has a schedule difficulty which ranks it 50th in the nation, then .01 x 50 = .5 which is subtracted from the NAYPPA, in the example above 2.0 minus 0.5 = a rating of 1.5
  • Weakness of Defense Penalty. If a team allows 5 or more yards per play on defense an additional .1 is subtracted from the NAYPPA; if 6 yards per play or more are allowed, then .2 is subtracted,; if 7 yards per play or more are allowed, then .3 is subtracted. For example, if the team above with a rating of 1.5 gave up 5.2 yards per play on defense then .1 is subtracted from 1.5 to give 1.4.
  • Win-Loss Record. For each loss .2 is deducted from the NAYPPA. For example, if the team above had a record of 12-1, i.e. losing one game, then .2 is subtracted from 1.4 for a final rating of 1.2, which in 2007 was high enough to mark the national champion.
  • Predicting Games. ONE point of rating difference by NAYPPA = 9 points on the scoreboard. Note that Massey Ratings calculates the home field advantage at an average of 2.68 points whereas Sagarin uses the rounded figure of 3 points.

TEAM

2008 season
yards/
play
cfbstats.com

offense
defense
advantage

NAYPPA
SCHed.
difficulty
multiplied
times .01
is
subtracted from
NAYPPA


Wins-Losses
Games lost
adjustment
Subtract
.2
per loss
from
NAYPPA

YPPSYS
Composite
Rating
YPPSYS
Div. I-A
FBS
2009
Pre-
Season
Ranking
USC6.6,3.6,3.03
12-1
2.81
Florida
7.1,4.5,2.632
13-1
2.1
2
Oklahoma
6.9,5.2,1.75
12-2
1.2
3
Oregon6.6,4.9,1.72
10-3
1.1
4
Georgia6.7,5.0,1.74
10-3
1.1
5
Penn State
6.5,4.4,2.169
11-2
1.0
6
Boise State
6.5,4.3,2.298
12-1
1.0
7
Texas
6.5,5.3,1.2
8
11-1
0.8
8
Texas Tech
7.1,5.6,1.5
18
11-2
0.8
9
California5.9,4.4,1.516
9-4
0.5
10
Utah5.7,4.6,1.164
13-0
0.5
11
TCU5.4,3.8,1.668
11-2
0.5
12
Georgia Tech6.0,4.8,1.26
9-4
0.3
13
Oklahoma State
7.0,5.6,1.417
9-4
0.3
14
Missouri
6.9,5.3,1.640
10-4
0.3
15
Alabama5.5,4.3,1.252
12-2
0.3
16
Iowa5.8,4.4,1.445
9-4
0.2
17
Mississippi6.2,4.7,1.556
9-4
0.1
18
Tulsa7.3,5.7,1.6
78
11-3
0.1
19
Ohio State
5.5,4.5,1.0
42
10-3
0.0
20
Florida State
5.5,4.8,0.71
9-4
-0.1
21
BYU6.3,5.2,1.161
10-3
-0.2
22
West Virginia
5.7,4.7,1.054
9-4
-0.3
23
Cincinnati5.6,4.7,0.963
11-3
-0.3
24
Houston7.2,5.6,1.680
8-5
-0.3
25
Oregon State
5.7,5.0,0.720
9-4
-0.4
26
Nebraska6.4,5.7,0.722
9-4
-0.4
27
Ball State
6.7,5.4,1.3117
12-2
-0.4
28
Arizona5.7,5.0,0.719
8-5
-0.6
29
South Florida
5.7,4.6,1.166
8-5
-0.6
30
Pittsburgh5.1,4.9,0.253
9-4
-0.7
31
Clemson5.2,4.5,0.731
7-6
-0.8
32
Illinois6.2,5.2,1.041
5-7
-0.9
33
Connecticut5.2,4.6,0.650
8-5
-0.9
34
Kansas5.9,5.6,0.321
8-5
-1.0
35
Boston College
4.6,4.2,0.437
9-5
-1.0
36
Troy5.5,4.5,1.0101
8-5
-1.0
37
Miami of Florida
5.1,4.9,0.29
7-6
-1.1
38
Maryland5.5,5.2,0.313
8-5
-1.1
39
LSU5.4,5.0,0.423
8-5
-1.1
40
North Carolina
5.4,5.0,0.443
8-5
-1.1
41
Rutgers6.2,5.4,0.882
8-5
-1.1
42
Baylor5.9,5.3,0.615
4-8
-1.2
43
Wisconsin
5.8,5.0,0.867
7-6
-1.2
44
South Carolina
4.7,4.7,0.07
7-6
-1.3
45
Virginia Tech
4.5,4.9,-0.412
10-4
-1.3
46
Tennessee4.5,4.1,0.430
5-7
-1.3
47
Wake Forest
4.5,4.6,-0.134
8-5
-1.4
48
Northwestern4.9,4.8,0.173
9-4
-1.4
49
Notre Dame
5.2,5.0,0.236
7-6
-1.5
50
Rice6.3,6.3,0.071
10-3
-1.5
51
East Carolina
5.1,4.9,0.272
9-5
-1.5
52
Nevada6.5,5.9,0.683
7-6
-1.5
53
Western Michigan
6.0,5.5,0.5110
9-4
-1.5
54
Arizona State
4.9,4.8,0.127
5-7
-1.6
55
Arkansas State
6.0,5.2,0.8
118
6-6
-1.7
56
Stanford5.4,5.6,-0.211
5-7
-1.8
57
Michigan State
4.9,5.3,-0.455
9-4
-1.8
58
Navy5.7,5.6,0.176
8-5
-1.8
59
Arkansas5.5,5.6,-0.129
5-7
-1.9
60
Air Force
5.0,5.1,-0.175
8-5
-1.9
61
Southern Miss
5.7,5.4,0.386
7-6
-1.9
62
Virginia4.6,4.9,-0.326
5-7
-2.0
63
Bowling Green
5.3,5.1,0.292
6-6
-2.0
64
Florida Atlantic
5.9,5.6,0.3105
7-6
-2.0
65
Vanderbilt4.2,4.9,-0.724
7-6
-2.1
66
Auburn4.5,4.9,-0.433
5-7
-2.1
67
L.-Lafayette (ULL)
6.6,6.2,0.4112
6-6
-2.1
68
New Mexico
4.9,5.0,-0.165
4-8
-2.2
69
Louisiana Tech
5.2,5.4,-0.293
8-5
-2.2
70
Ohio5.6,5.1,0.5109
4-8
-2.3
71
Northern Illinois
5.4,5.0,0.4120
6-7
-2.3
72
Minnesota4.9,5.7,-0.835
7-6
-2.4
73
Kentucky4.5,5.2,-0.744
7-6
-2.4
74
Purdue5.0,5.2,-0.249
4-8
-2.4
75
San Jose State
4.4,4.8,-0.479
6-6
-2.4
76
Kansas State
5.8,6.2,-0.451
5-7
-2.5
77
Wyoming4.6,4.9,-0.360
4-8
-2.5
78
Colorado State
5.8,6.2,-0.474
7-6
-2.5
79
Fresno State
5.9,6.1,-0.291
7-6
-2.5
80
Florida Int'l
4.9,5.0,-0.195
5-7
-2.5
81
Akron5.7,5.5,0.2119
5-7
-2.5
82
N. Carolina State
5.1,5.7,-0.646
6-7
-2.6
83
Memphis5.6,5.9,-0.381
6-7
-2.6
84
Central Michigan
5.7,6.1,-0.4 99
8-5
-2.6
85
Hawaii5.4,5.5,-0.1104
7-7
-2.6
86
UCLA4.2,5.1,-0.910
4-8
-2.7
87
Louisville5.3,5.9,-0.657
5-7
-2.7
88
Colorado4.5,5.5,-1.028
5-7
-2.8
89
Mid. Tennessee
5.1,5.4,-0.3103
5-7
-2.8
90
Marshall5.1,5.4,-0.390
4-8
-2.9
91
Kent State
5.8,5.9,-0.1115
4-8
-2.9
92
Mississippi State
4.2,5.1,-0.939
4-8
-3.0
93
Temple4.8,5.2,-0.4111
5-7
-3.0
94
Buffalo5.4,5.9,-0.5116
8-6
-3.0
95
Indiana5.2,5.8,-0.659
3-9
-3.1
96
UTEP6.0,6.6,-0.687
5-7
-3.1
97
Toledo5.3,5.5,-0.2
96
3-9
-3.1
98
Duke4.4,5.4,-1.047
4-8
-3.2
99
Texas A&M
5.3,6.4,-1.138
4-8
-3.3
100
UNLV5.2,6.2,-1.070
5-7
-3.3
101
New Mexico State
5.3,5.6,-0.3108
3-9
-3.3
102
Michigan4.4,5.3,-0.962
3-9
-3.4
103
UCF3.6,4.7,-1.185
4-8
-3.5
104
Utah State
5.1,5.8,-0.794
3-9
-3.5
105
Syracuse4.7,5.9,-1.248
3-9
-3.6
106
UAB5.6,6.6,-1.077
4-8
-3.6
107
Iowa State
5.5,6.7,-1.258
2-10
-4.0
108
Western Kentucky
4.6,5.4,-0.8107
2-10
-4.0
109
Eastern Michigan
5.5,6.6,-1.1100
3-9
-4.1
110
Army4.5,5.6,-1.1106
3-9
-4.1
111
L.-Monroe (ULM)
5.2,6.5,-1.3114
4-8
-4.2
112
Tulane5.0,6.3,-1.384
2-10
-4.3
113
San Diego State
4.8,6.2,-1.488
2-10
-4.5
114
SMU5.4,6.5,-1.197
1-11
-4.5
115
Miami of Ohio
4.7,6.3,-1.689
2-10
-4.7
116
Idaho4.8,6.6,-1.8102
2-10
-5.0
117
Washington State
3.9,6.5,-2.625
2-11
-5.2
118
Washington4.0,6.6,-2.614
0-12
-5.3
119
North Texas
4.9,7.1,-2.2113
1-11
-5.8
120
TEAM
NAYPPA
SCHed.
difficulty
multiplied
times .01

subtract
from
NAYPPA
Win-Loss Record
subtract .2 per loss

from
NAYPPA
YPPSYS Rating

Other Divisions
(playoff champions)
Division
I-AA FCS
includes
playoff
games
if stats available
x .015



Richmond
5,6,4.4,1.2
129
13-3
-1.4

Division II

x .015



Minnesota-Duluth
6.6,3.9,2.7
278
15-0
-1.5

Division III

x .02



Mount Union
8.2,3.5,4.7
419
14-0
-3.7

NAIA

x .02



Sioux Falls
5.4,2.2,3.2
379
14-0
-4.4

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