"Where there is no vision, the people perish: but he that keepeth the law, happy is he."
-- Proverbs 29:18, King James Bible (KJV)

Sunday, January 19, 2020

Color-Coded Performance Levels - The SportPundit FBS Final College Football Rankings 2019/2020 After Bowls and Playoffs

Color-Coded Performance Levels - The SportPundit FBS Final College Football Rankings 2019/2020 After Bowls and Playoffs. These levels provide what we think are realistic goals for teams in 2020/2021 to advance to the next level or two, if possible. Note the large 1 touchdown rating gap between the top four teams and the fifth placed team.

LEVEL 1 - CHAMPIONS - rating (plus) +2.50 and higher : LSU, Clemson, Ohio State, Alabama
LEVEL 2 - STRONGEST CHALLENGERS : rating (plus) +2.49 to (plus) +0.49 : Oklahoma, Georgia, Florida, Oregon, Wisconsin, Michigan, Notre Dame, Penn State, Auburn, Baylor
LEVEL 3 - MEDIUM-STRENGTH CHALLENGERS in the TOP 25 : rating (plus) +0.50 to (minus) -0.25 : Iowa, Minnesota, USC, Texas A&M, Texas, Utah, Oklahoma State, Iowa State, Memphis, Cincinnati, UCF
LEVEL 4 - STRIVING TOWARD TOP 25 RECOGNITION : rating (minus) -0.26 to (minus) -0.99 : Washington, Navy, TCU, Tennessee, Appalachian State, North Carolina, Michigan State, Boise State, Kansas State, South Carolina, Arizona State, Mississippi State, Mississippi, Louisiana (UL Lafayette), Indiana, Nebraska, Kentucky, Air Force, Virginia, Washington State
LEVEL 5 - RISING ABOVE FOOTBALL AVERAGEDOM : rating (minus) -1.00 to (minus) -1.29 : SMU, Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh, Tulane, Missouri, Florida State, Louisville, Miami of Florida, Oregon State, California, West Virginia, Kansas
Level 6 - ENTRENCHED IN FOOTBALL AVERAGEDOM : rating (minus) -1.30 to (minus) -1.99 : Arizona, Temple, UCLA, Hawaii, San Diego State, BYU, Stanford, Texas Tech, Illinois, Tulsa, Utah State, Colorado, Wyoming, Purdue, Marshall, Florida Atlantic, Maryland
Level 7 - FALLEN BELOW FOOTBALL AVERAGEDOM : rating (minus) -2.00 to (minus) -2.49 : Wake Forest, Boston College, Northwestern, Fresno State, Syracuse, Western Kentucky, Colorado State, Georgia Tech, UAB, Central Michigan, Houston, San Jose State, Louisiana Tech, South Florida, Duke, Southern Miss, Liberty, Arkansas State
Level 8 - THE LOWER LEVELS : rating (minus) -2.50 to (minus) -2.99 : Arkansas, Georgia Southern, North Carolina State, Miami of Ohio, Ohio, Vanderbilt, Buffalo, Kent State, Western Michigan, Charlotte, Ball State, Louisiana Monroe, Florida International, Eastern Michigan, Middle Tennessee, Georgia State, Nevada, Northern Illinois, Toledo
Level 9 - THE LOWER FRINGES : rating (minus) -3.00 to (minus) -3.99 : North Texas, Troy, Coastal Carolina, Army, Texas State, East Carolina, UNLV, Rutgers, South Alabama, UTSA, New Mexico, Rice
Level 10 - BEYOND THE PALE - NOWHERE TO GO BUT UP : rating (minus) -4.00 to (minus) -4.99 : New Mexico State, Bowling Green, Connecticut, Old Dominion, UTEP, Massachusetts, Akron

YPP stats from cfbstats.com

Schedule Difficulty (SD) is based on the Massey Ratings
-- but in many cases we have adjusted them and marked those by an asterisk *
(* = adjusted).
Schedule Difficulty stats are rough approximations - just compare the ColleyMatrix to see how much they can diverge.

NAYPPA = Net Average Yards Per Play Advantage - Calculation by SportPundit.
AYPP = Adjusted Yards Per Play. The "calculation of rank" is made by taking NAYPPA minus the "calibration adjustment for schedule difficulty" = CSD (3 x SD divided by 100). We do all calculations in our head, which can be done swiftly, but there may be error as a result of doing things too fast, so we make no guarantees as to accuracy.

The system is not perfect! But it can give a good idea of the relative strengths of many of the teams without looking at the margin of victory or won-loss records against varied opposition and under various circumstances. Some placements are curious, but on the whole, the rankings can be quite useful.

SportPundit NCAA Division I FBS College Football Rankings 2019 after Bowls and Playoffs (rank is determined by AYPP, the adjusted yards per play rating).

Rank Team Ypp Off Ypp Def NAYPPA SD CSD AYPP W-L
1 LSU 7.89 5.11 +2.78 1 -0.00 +2.78 15-0
2 Clemson 7.38 4.46 +2.92 7 -0.51 +2.71 14-1
3 Ohio State 6.94 4.13 +2.81 *3 -0.09 +2.71 13-1
4 Alabama 7.89 4.81 +3.07 12 -0.36 +2.71 11-2
5 Oklahoma 7.96 5.63 +2.33 9 -0.27 +2.06 12-2
6 Georgia 6.08 4.29 +1.79 6 -0.18 +1.55 12-2
7 Florida 6.47 4.90 +1.57 15 -0.45 +1.12 11-2
8 Oregon 6.34 4.73 +1.61 19 -0.57 +1.04 12-2
9 Wisconsin 6.30 4.79 +1.51 *16 -0.48 +1.03 10-4
10 Michigan 5.77 4.72 +1.05 4 -0.12 +0.93 9-4
11 Notre Dame 6.30 4.67 +1.63 25 -0.75 +0.88 11-2
12 Penn State 6.05 4.82 +1.23 14 -0.42 +0.81 11-2
13 Auburn 5.58 4.84 +0.74 2 -0.03 +0.71 9-4
14 Baylor 6.22 4.89 +1.33 23 -0.69 +0.64 11-3
15 Iowa 5.52 4.80 +0.72 *10 -0.30 +0.42 10-3
Rank Team Ypp Off Ypp Def NAYPPA SD CSD AYPP W-L
16 Minnesota 6.36 5.06 +1.30 *30 -0.90 +0.40 11-2
17 USC 6.52 5.70 +0.82 17 -0.51 +0.31 8-5
18 Texas A&M 5.82 5.25 +0.57 11 -0.33 +0.24 8-5
19 Texas 6.37 6.11 +0.26 *3 -0.09 +0.17 8-5
20 Utah 6.59 4.64 +1.95 *60 -1.80 +0.15 11-3
21 Oklahoma St. 6.39 5.79 +0.60 *15 -0.45 +0.15 8-5
22 Iowa State 6.45 5.36 +1.09 *35 -1.05 +0.04 7-6
23 Memphis 6.85 5.37 +1.48 *50 -1.50 -0.02 12-2
24 Cincinnati 5.55 5.21 +0.34 *15 -0.45 -0.11 11-3
25 UCF 6.92 4.57 +2.35 *85 -2.55 -0.20 10-3
26 Washington 5.83 5.11 +0.72 33 -0.97 -0.27 8-5
27 Navy 6.76 5.26 +1.50 *60 -1.80 -0.30 11-2
28 TCU 5.51 5.37 +0.14 *19 -0.57 -0.43 5-7
29 Tennessee 5.82 5.04 +0.78 41 -1.23 -0.45 8-5
30 Appalachian St. 6.26 5.01 +1.25 *57 -1.71 -0.46 13-1
Rank Team Ypp Off Ypp Def NAYPPA SD CSD AYPP W-L
31 North Carolina 6.43 5.43 +1.00 *50 -1.50 -0.50 7-6
32 Michigan State 5.19 4.96 +0.23 *25 -0.75 -0.52 7-6
33 Boise State 6.05 5.22 +0.83 *45 -1.35 -0.52 12-2
34 Kansas State 5.55 6.17 -0.62 **0 -0.00 -0.62 8-5
35 South Carolina 5.18 5.53 -0.35 10 -0.30 -0.65 4-8
36 Arizona State 5.74 5.51 +0.23 *30 -0.90 -0.67 8-5
37 Mississippi State 6.16 6.30 -0.14 *18 -0.54 -0.68 6-7
38 Mississippi 6.00 5.82 +0.18 *29 -0.87 -0.69 4-8
39 Louisiana-Laf. 7.01 5.45 +1.56 *75 -2.25 -0.69 11-3
40 Indiana 6.08 5.36 +0.72 50 -1.47 -0.75 8-5
41 Nebraska 5.76 5.61 +0.15 *30 -0.90 -0.75 5-7
42 Kentucky 6.17 5.21 +0.96 57 -1.71 -0.75 8-5
43 Air Force 6.22 5.53 +0.69 *50 -1.50 -0.81 11-2
44 Virginia 5.66 5.75 -0.09 *25 -0.75 -0.84 9-5
45 Washington St. 7.14 6.64 +0.50 45 -1.35 -0.85 6-7
Rank Team Ypp Off Ypp Def NAYPPA SD CSD AYPP W-L
46 SMU 6.14 5.76 +0.38 *44 -1.32 -1.00 10-3
47 Virginia Tech 5.65 5.20 +0.45 *50 -1.50 -1.05 8-5
48 Pittsburgh 5.18 4.50 +0.68 *60 -1.80 -1.12 8-5
49 Tulane 6.16 5.49 +0.67 *60 -1.80 -1.13 7-6
50 Missouri 5.27 4.86 +0.41 52 -1.56 -1.15 6-6
51 Florida State 5.84 5.31 +0.53 56 -1.68 -1.15 6-7
52 Louisville 6.68 6.33 +0.35 *50 -1.50 -1.15 8-5
53 Miami of Florida 5.66 4.74 +0.92 70 -2.10 -1.18 6-7
54 Oregon State 5.95 6.05 -0.10 *36 -1.08 -1.18 5-7
55 California 5.08 5.37 -0.29 *30 -0.90 -1.19 8-5
56 West Virginia 4.90 5.48 -0.58 21 -0.63 -1.21 5-7
57 Kansas 5.86 6.15 -0.29 31 -0.93 -1.22 3-9
58 Arizona 6.05 6.36 -0.31 *35 -1.05 -1.36 4-8
59 Temple 5.36 4.93 +0.43 *60 -1.80 -1.37 8-5
60 UCLA 5.31 6.71 -1.40 *1 -0.00 -1.40 4-8
Rank Team Ypp Off Ypp Def NAYPPA SD CSD AYPP W-L
61 Hawaii 6.69 6.29 +0.40 *60 -1.80 -1.40 9-5
62 San Diego State 4.78 4.65 -0.13 *52 -1.56 -1.43 10-3
63 BYU 6.18 5.60 +0.58 68 -2.04 -1.46 7-6
64 Stanford 5.59 6.30 -0.71 25 -0.75 -1.46 4-8
65 Texas Tech 6.09 6.59 -0.50 32 -0.96 -1.46 4-8
66 Illinois 5.00 5.60 -0.60 *30 -0.90 -1.50 6-7
67 Tulsa 5.32 5.67 -0.35 39 -1.17 -1.52 4-8
68 Utah State 5.81 5.64 +0.17 *60 -1.80 -1.63 7-6
69 Colorado 5.50 6.51 -1.01 21 -0.63 -1.64 5-7
70 Wyoming 5.49 5.03 +0.46 *70 -2.10 -1.64 8-5
71 Purdue 5.47 6.02 -0.55 37 -1.11 -1.66 4-8
72 Marshall 5.77 5.54 +0.23 *70 -2.10 -1.87 8-5
73 Florida Atlantic 5.94 5.38 +0.56 *82 -2.46 -1.90 10-3
74 Maryland 5.37 5.95 -0.48 48 -1.44 -1.92 3-9
75 Wake Forest 5.72 5.78 -0.06 65 -1.95 -2.01 8-5
Rank Team Ypp Off Ypp Def NAYPPA SD CSD AYPP W-L
76 Boston College 5.91 6.46 -0.55 *49 -1.47 -2.02 6-7
77 Northwestern 4.23 5.06 -0.83 40 -1.20 -2.03 3-9
78 Fresno State 6.04 5.73 +0.31 78 -2.34 -2.03 4-8
79 Syracuse 5.21 6.07 -0.86 *40 -1.20 -2.06 5-7
80 Western Kentucky 5.60 5.22 +0.38 *83 -2.49 -2.11 9-4
81 Colorado St. 6.24 5.58 +0.66 94 -2.82 -2.164-8
82 Georgia Tech 4.79 5.83 -1.04 *40 -1.20 -2.24 3-9
83 UAB 5.50 4.71 +0.79 *101 -3.03 -2.24 9-5
84 Central Michigan 6.08 5.42 +0.66 *97 -2.91 -2.25 8-6
85 Houston 6.02 6.81 -0.79 50 -1.50 -2.29 4-8
86 San Jose State 6.36 5.80 +0.56 *95 -2.85 -2.29 5-7
87 Louisiana Tech 6.09 5.22 +0.77 *102 -3.06 -2.29 10-3
88 South Florida 5.14 5.39 -0.25 69 -2.07 -2.32 4-8
89 Duke 4.53 5.35 -0.82 51 -1.53 -2.35 5-7
90 Southern Miss 6.07 5.71 +0.36 *93 -2.79 -2.43 7-6
Rank Team Ypp Off Ypp Def NAYPPA SD CSD AYPP W-L
91 Liberty 6.44 5.74 +0.70 *105 -3.15 -2.45 8-5
92 Arkansas State 6.17 6.11 +0.06 *85 -2.55 -2.49 8-5
93 Arkansas 5.21 6.54 -1.33 *39 -1.17 -2.50 2-10
94 Georgia Southern 5.19 5.66 -0.47 *70 -2.10 -2.57 7-6
95 NC State 5.18 5.59 -0.41 *75 -2.25 -2.66 4-8
96 Miami of Ohio 4.97 5.27 -0.30 *79 -2.37 -2.67 8-6
97 Ohio 6.68 5.95 +0.73 *114 -3.42 -2.69 7-6
98 Vanderbilt 4.78 6.57 -1.79 *30 -0.90 -2.69 3-9
99 Buffalo 5.39 4.87 +0.52 *107 -3.21 -2.69 8-5
100 Kent State 5.83 6.32 -0.49 *73 -2.19 -2.70 7-6
101 Western Michigan 6.33 5.85 +0.48 *106 -3.18 -2.70 7-6
102 Charlotte 6.31 6.01 +0.30 *100 -3.00 -2.70 7-6
103 Ball State 6.11 5.82 +0.29 *101 -3.03 -2.74 5-7
104 Louisiana Monroe 6.37 6.71 -0.34 *80 -2.40 -2.74 5-7
105 Florida Int'l FIU 5.59 5.66 -0.07 *90 -2.70 -2.77 6-7
Rank Team Ypp Off Ypp Def NAYPPA SD CSD AYPP W-L
106 Eastern Michigan 5.97 6.07 -0.10 *90 -2.70 -2.80 6-7
107 Middle Tennessee 6.36 6.21 +0.15 *101 -3.00 -2.85 4-8
108 Georgia State 5.85 6.64 -0.79 *70 -2.10 -2.89 7-6
109 Nevada 5.02 6.07 -1.05 *60 -1.80 -2.95 7-6
110 Northern Illinois 5.22 6.08 -0.86 *70 -2.10 -2.96 5-7
111 Toledo 6.09 6.62 -0.53 *80 -2.40 -2.976-6
112 North Texas 5.92 5.73 +0.19 *110 -3.30 -3.11 4-8
113 Troy 6.13 6.20 -0.07 105 -3.15 -3.22 5-7
114 Coastal Carolina 5.53 6.05 -0.52 *90 -2.70 -3.22 5-7
115 Army 5.86 5.53 +0.33 *120 -3.60 -3.27 5-7
116 Texas State 4.97 5.72 -0.75 90 -2.70 -3.45 3-9
117 East Carolina 5.74 6.52 -0.78 *90 -2.70 -3.48 4-8
118 UNLV 5.41 6.26 -0.85 90 -2.70 -3.55 4-8
119 Rutgers 4.46 6.22 -1.76 61 -1.83 -3.64 2-10
120 South Alabama 5.01 5.77 -0.76 *100 -3.00 -3.76 2-10
Rank Team Ypp Off Ypp Def NAYPPA SD CSD AYPP W-L
121 UTSA 5.05 6.53 -1.48 *80 -2.40 -3.88 4-8
122 New Mexico 5.77 6.71 -0.94 *98 -2.94 -3.88 2-10
123 Rice 4.69 5.97 -1.28 *90 -2.70 -3.98 3-9
124 New Mexico State 5.21 6.58 -1.37 *100 -3.00 -4.37 2-10
125 Bowling Green 4.56 7.03 -2.47 *80 -2.40 -4.87 3-9
126 Connecticut 5.11 7.00 -1.89 *100 -3.15 -4.89 2-10
127 Old Dominion 4.06 5.66 -1.60 *110 -3.30 -4.90 1-11
128 UTEP 5.14 6.76 -1.62 *110 -3.30 -4.92 1-11
129 Massachusetts 4.28 7.77 -3.49 *120 -3.60 -4.99 1-11
130 Akron 4.02 5.70 -1.68 *111 -3.33 -4.99 0-12
Rank Team Ypp Off Ypp Def NAYPPA SD CSD AYPP W-L