"Where there is no vision, the people perish: but he that keepeth the law, happy is he."
-- Proverbs 29:18, King James Bible (KJV)

Tuesday, September 25, 2018

College Football Predictions "Week 5" 2018 NCAA Division I FBS September 27 to September 29

College Football Predictions "Week 5" 2018 NCAA Division I FBS September 27 to September 29

For Week 4 of the 2018-2019 FBS College Football Season we finished:
51-11 in picking the winner,
32-30 against the spread,
27-28 against the CFPT average, and
28-33-1 against the over/under.

For the 2018-2019 FBS College Football Season we are a cumulative:
226-68 in picking the winner,
134-151-8 against the spread,
90-106 against the CFPT average, and
155-133-6 against the over/under.


See our previous Week 1 predictions for an explanation of our system.

Caveat emptor (Buyer beware): We make this material available in good fun out of interest for the sport of college football. Please do not rely on our material to place bets or wagers of any kind. No one knows the exact outcome of a game or a season before it is played and that is what makes it so interesting. We disclaim any and all liability for the consequences of anyone relying in any way upon our postings, analysis, links or reasoning - for which we make no warranty of accuracy. May the best team win.

We use opening betting lines ("the spread", "the line"), as far as possible, and thus write "were favored" or "was favored" since odds change over time. We do not compete against changed odds because we are not competing against bettors. We take opening lines primarily from the College Football Prediction Tracker (CFPT), Sportbet.com, Oddsshark and VegasInsider.com -- also for the over/unders, except for CFPT, which does not have them. We use the College Football Prediction Tracker (CFPT) prediction average as of the date that we find it (this week Monday, September 24, 2018, 10:09 AM). The CFPT does not include games between FCS and FBS opponents. The teams are FBS teams unless marked as FCS.

THURSDAY, September 27, 2018

North Carolina at Miami of Florida
The Hurricanes were favored over the Tar Heels by 18 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored Miami by 21.12 points.
The over/under was 55.5 points.
Our call: 35-21 for Miami.
Result: ??

FRIDAY, September 28, 2018

Memphis at Tulane
The Tigers were favored over the Green Wave by 11.5 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored Memphis by 12.93 points.
The over/under was 64.5 points.
Our call: 44-27 for Memphis.
Result: ??

UCLA at Colorado
The Buffaloes were favored over the Bruins by 11 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored Colorado by 13.28 points.
The over/under was 62.5 points.
Our call: 34-31 for Colorado.
Result: ??

SATURDAY, September 29, 2018

Army at Buffalo
The Bulls were favored over the Black Knights by 6 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored Buffalo by 0.94 points.
The over/under was 51.5 points.
Our call: 31-24 for Buffalo.
Result: ??

Bowling Green at Georgia Tech
The Yellow Jackets were favored over the Falcons by 25.5 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored Georgia Tech by 23.13 points.
The over/under was 66 points.
Our call: 48-14 for Georgia Tech.
Result: ??

Central Michigan at Michigan State
The Spartans were favored over the Chippewas by 28 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored Michigan State by 27.53 points.
The over/under was 45 points.
Our call: 41-7 for Michigan State.
Result: ??

Syracuse at Clemson
The Tigers were favored over the Orange by 19.5 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored Clemson by 19.77 points.
The over/under was 63.5 points.
Our call: 34-23 for Clemson.
Result: ??

Indiana at Rutgers
The Hoosiers were favored over the Scarlet Knights by 15 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored Indiana by 18 points.
The over/under was 52 points.
Our call: 38-17 for Indiana.
Result: ??

Louisiana Lafyette (ULL) at Alabama
The Crimson Tide were favored over the Ragin' Cajuns by 51.5 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored 'Bama by 52.41 points.
The over/under was 65.5 points.
Our call: 56-7 for Alabama. If we were to go strictly by our system, we would favor Alabama by 77 points in this game. Obviously, when scores go very high, reserves are sent in to gain play experience, minimizing scoring. Besides, there is no great advantage for a top team to run up a score senselessly, so that any predicted spread beyond 49 points is a risk, even if a team is quite dominant.
Result: ??

Oklahoma State at Kansas
The Cowboys were favored over the Jayhawks by 17 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored Oklahoma State by 18.19 points.
The over/under was 62 points.
Our call: 44-20 for Oklahoma State.
Result: ??

Temple at Boston College
The Eagles were favored over the Owls by 14.5 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored Boston College by 8.82 points.
The over/under was 53 points.
Our call: 27-24 for Boston College.
Result: ??

Texas A&M vs. Arkansas (at AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas)
The Aggies were favored over the Razorbacks by 16.5 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored Texas A&M by 23.06 points.
The over/under was 60.5 points.
Our call: 41-17 for Texas A&M.
Result: ??
 
West Virginia at Texas Tech
The Mountaineers were favored over the Red Raiders by 4 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored Texas Tech by 2.67 points.
The over/under was 77 points.
Our call: 40-34 for West Virginia.
Result: ??

Virginia at North Carolina State
The Wolfpack were favored over the Cavaliers by 8 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored NC State  by 9.55 points.
The over/under was 54 points.
Our call: 30-27 for NC State.
Result: ??

Louisiana Monroe (ULM) at Georgia State
The Warhawks were favored over the Panthers by 6.5 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored ULM by 2.90 points.
The over/under was 63.5 points.
Our call: 45-27 for UL Monroe.
Result: ??

Massachusetts at Ohio
The Bobcats were favored over the Minutemen by 14 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored Ohio by 11.78 points.
The over/under was 71 points.
Our call: 37-36 for Ohio.
Result: ??

Kent State at Ball State
The Cardinals were favored over the Golden Flashes by 7.5 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored Ball State by 2.57 points.
The over/under was 61 points.
Our call: 27-26 for Ball State.
Result: ??

Baylor at Oklahoma
The Sooners were favored over the Bears by 21 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored Oklahoma by 23.48 points.
The over/under was 67 points.
Our call: 48-20 for Oklahoma.
Result: ??

Cincinnati at Connecticut
The Bearcats were favored over the Huskies by 17.5 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored Cincinnati by 14.88 points.
The over/under was 60.5 points.
Our call: 42-24 for Cincinnati.
Result: ??

Coastal Carolina at Troy
The Trojans were favored over the Chanticleers by 15 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored Troy by 11.46 points.
The over/under was 56 points.
Our call: 34-24 for Troy.
Result: ??

Florida State at Louisville
The Seminoles were favored over the Cardinals by 5.5 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored Louisville by 2.94 points.
The over/under was 47 points.
Our call: 24-17 for Florida State.
Result: ??

Old Dominion at East Carolina
The Pirates were favored over the Monarchs by 6.5 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored East Carolina by 11 points.
The over/under was 63.5 points.
Our call: 34-31 for Old Dominion.
Result: ??

Pittsburgh at UCF (Central Florida)
The Knights were favored over the Panthers by 14.5 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored UCF by 16.53 points.
The over/under was 66 points.
Our call: 44-27 for UCF.
Result: ??

Purdue at Nebraska
The Boilermakers were favored over the Huskers by 3 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored Purdue by 7.68 points.
The over/under was 56 points.
Our call: 31-30 for the Cornhuskers. Our stats would predict a Purdue win by about 5 points, but, as a highly biased Nebraska alumnus, we are hoping that the Big Red start to break out of their doldrums.
Result: ??

Rice at Wake Forest
The Demon Deacons were favored over the Owls by 24.5 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored Wake Forest by 25.99 points.
The over/under was 67 points.
Our call: 48-17 for Wake Forest.
Result: ??

South Alabama at Appalachian State
The Mountaineers were favored over the Jaguars by 23 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored Appalachian State by 26.80 points.
The over/under was 60 points.
Our call: 49-17 for Appalachian State.
Result: ??

Tennessee at Georgia
The Dawgs were favored over the Vols by 33 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored Georgia by 34.13 points.
The over/under was 53.5 points.
Our call: 47-7 for Georgia.
Result: ??

Texas at Kansas State
The Longhorns were favored over the Wildcats by 7 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored Texas by 10.19 points.
The over/under was 48 points.
Our call: 34-20 for Texas.
Result: ??

Western Michigan at Miami of Ohio
The Redhawks were favored over the Broncos by 3 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored Western Michigan by 4.89 points.
The over/under was 55 points.
Our call: 30-27 for Western Michigan.
Result: ??

Nevada at Air Force
The Falcons were favored over the Wolf Pack by 7.5 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored Air Force by 9.04 points.
The over/under was 67 points.
Our call: 36-34 for Nevada.
Result: ??

Tennessee State (FCS) at Vanderbilt
The Commodores were favored over the Tigers by 30.5 points.
The over/under was 51 points.
Our call: 45-7 for Vanderbilt.
Result: ??

Southern Mississippi at Auburn
The Tigers were favored over the Golden Eagles by 29.5 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored Auburn by 27.73 points.
The over/under was 53.5 points.
Our call: 41-10 for Auburn.
Result: ??

Michigan at Northwestern
The Wolverines were favored over the Wildcats by 11 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored Michigan by 10.70 points.
The over/under was 48 points.
Our call: 34-17 for Michigan.
Result: ??

Arkansas State at Georgia Southern
The Red Wolves were favored over the Eagles by 3.5 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored the Red Wolves by 2.89 points.
The over/under was 57.5 points.
Our call: 37-23 for Arkansas State.
Result: ??

Florida at Mississippi State
The Bulldogs were favored over the Gators by 7 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored Mississippi State by 7.73 points.
The over/under was 50 points.
Our call: 27-24 for Florida.
Result: ??

Liberty at New Mexico
The Lobos were favored over the Flames by 8.5 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored New Mexico by 7.46 points.
The over/under was 64 points.
Our call: 38-35 for Liberty.
Result: ??

Northern Illinois at Eastern Michigan
The Eagles were favored over the Huskies by 3 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored Eastern Michigan by 7.12 points.
The over/under was 46 points.
Our call: 24-23 for Eastern Michigan.
Result: ??

Utah at Washington State
The Cougars were favored over the Utes by 2 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored Washington State by 3.60 points.
The over/under was 53.5 points.
Our call: 27-23 for Washington State. According to cfbstats.com, Utah is Number 1 in pass defense and Washington State is Number 2 in pass offense.
Result: ??

Boise State at Wyoming
The Broncos were favored over the Cowboys by 16 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored Boise State by 16.45 points.
The over/under was 46.5 points.
Our call: 31-17 for Boise State.
Result: ??

Charlotte at UAB (Alabama Birmingham)
The Blazers were favored over the 49ers by 16.5 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored UAB by 14.74 points.
The over/under was 53 points.
Our call: 38-17 for UAB.
Result: ??

Florida Atlantic (FAU) at Middle Tennessee State (MTSU)
The Owls were favored over the Blue Raiders by 3 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored the Owls by 3.89 points.
The over/under was 68 points.
Our call: 34-33 for FAU.
Result: ??

Hawaii (Hawai'i) at San Jose State
The Warriors were favored over the Spartans by 8.5 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored Hawaii by 12.12 points.
The over/under was 67 points.
Our call: 41-27 for Hawaii.
Result: ??

Houston Baptist (FCS) at SMU
The Mustangs were favored over the Huskies by 39 points.
The over/under was 65.5 points.
Our call: 54-14 for SMU.
Result: ??

Iowa State at TCU
The Horned Frogs were favored over the Cyclones by 10.5 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored TCU by 7.51 points.
The over/under was 48.5 points.
Our call: 31-20 for TCU.
Result: ??

UTEP (Texas El Paso) at UTSA (Texas San Antonio)
The Roadrunners were favored over the Miners by 11 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored UTSA by 15.84 points.
The over/under was 47 points.
Our call: 31-21 for UTSA.
Result: ??

Virginia Tech at Duke
The Blue Devils were favored over the Hokies by 4 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored Duke by 11.35 points.
The over/under was 50 points.
Our call: 34-27 for Duke.
Result: ??

Arkansas Pine Bluff (FCS) at Florida International (FIU)
The Golden Panthers were favored over the Golden Lions by 52 points.
The over/under was 65.5 points.
Our call: 61-7 for FIU. Arkansas Pine Bluff lost 90-6 to South Dakota State earlier this season so that any guess at a score here is just that.
Result: ??

Louisiana Tech at North Texas
The Mean Green were favored over the Bulldogs by 7 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored the Mean Green by 9.98 points.
The over/under was 65 points. How good are the constantly improving and still undefeated Mean Green this year? Louisiana Tech lost by only 17 to LSU last week. Last year North Texas beat the Bulldogs 24-23 on the road. We guess they are one TD better and here have the home field advantage.
Our call: 34-24 for North Texas.
Result: ??

Marshall at Western Kentucky
The Thundering Herd were favored over the Hilltoppers 3.5 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored Marshall by 3.32 points.
The over/under was 49.5 points.
Our call: 27-24 for WKU.
Result: ??

Ohio State at Penn State 
The Buckeyes were favored over the Nittany Lions by 4 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored Penn State by 1.37 points.
The over/under was 66.5 points.
Our call: 37-34 for Penn State. Our stats make this an even game, so we go with the home team and its theoretical 3-point home field advantage.
Result: ??

South Carolina at Kentucky
The Gamecocks were favored over the Wildcats by 1 point.
The CFPT prediction average favored Kentucky by 1.44 points.
The over/under was 51 points.
Our call: 30-27 for Kentucky.
Result: ??

Stanford at Notre Dame
The Fighting Irish were favored over the Cardinal by 3.5 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored Notre Dame by 3.54 points.
The over/under was 52 points.
Our call: 27-26 for Stanford. Our stats give Notre Dame a slight edge here based on a tougher schedule according to the Massey Ratings, but as a Stanford Law School alum we go with the Cardinal.
Result: ??

BYU at Washington
The Huskies were favored over the Cougars by 16.5 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored Washington  by 16.30 points.
The over/under was 43.5 points.
Our call: 23-20 for Washington. The stats favor Washington by a substantial margin, but the Cougar win against Wisconsin gives cause for pause. We keep our spread low.
Result: ??

Mississippi (Ole Miss) at LSU
The Tigers were favored over the Rebels by 13.5 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored LSU by 12.54 points.
The over/under was 58 points.
Our call: 27-26 for LSU.
Result: ??

Oregon State at Arizona State
The Sun Devils were favored over the Beavers by 20 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored Arizona State by 22.45 points.
The over/under was 63.5 points.
Our call: 47-17 for Arizona State.
Result: ??

Oregon at California
The Ducks were favored over the Bears by 3.5 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored Cal by 1.96 points.
The over/under was 59 points.
Our call: 27-24 for Cal.
Result: ??

Toledo at Fresno State
The Bulldogs were favored over the Rockets by 10 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored Fresno State by 10.01 points.
The over/under was 61.5 points.
Our call: 34-23 for Fresno State.
Result: ??

USC (Southern California) at Arizona
The Trojans were favored over the Wildcats by 2 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored USC by 5.12 points.
The over/under was 61 points.
Our call: 36-27 for Southern Cal.
Result: ??