"Where there is no vision, the people perish: but he that keepeth the law, happy is he."
-- Proverbs 29:18, King James Bible (KJV)

Tuesday, December 05, 2017

College Football Week 14 Predictions and Results 2017 NCAA Division I FBS December 1 to December 2 - Including Conference Championship Games

College Football Week 14 Predictions and Results 2017 NCAA Division I FBS December 1 to December 2 - Including Conference Championship Games

We finished this, the 14th Week, as follows:
10-6 in picking the winner,
6-8-2 against the spread,
5-10-1 against the CFPT average, and
8-8 against the over/under.


After Week 14, for the season we stand a cumulative:
635-195 in picking the winner
439-365-24 against the spread
394-343-1 against the CFPT average, and
405-413-10 against the over/under.

Below are the SportPundit predictions and (later-added) results for Week 14 of the NCAA Division I FBS College Football Season 2017-2018. Predictions THIS WEEK were based in part on this season's performance and in part on the final post-bowl and post-playoff rankings for the past football season. See the SportPundit Preseason College Football Rankings and Ratings for FBS 2017-2018. We also use USA Today Sagarin College Football Ratings, the Massey Ratings and the Dr. Kambour home field advantage calculations. We compose the schedule here using FoxSports, ESPN, NCCA.com and other online sources.

Our system is based -- but not exclusively -- on our system of what we have christened as "NAYPPA" stats (net average yards per play advantage), calibrated primarily by adjusting for schedule difficulty, i.e. the teams thus far played, an adjustment which should get better as the season goes along, but this proves not always to be the case. We use yards per play stats published at cfbstats.com. Other adjustments are also made (*=adjustment) because the ypp (yards per play) system is not perfect, often exacerbating stats made against much weaker or much stronger teams, nor can schedule difficulty always be pinpointed with accuracy since many schedules include FCS teams, especially at the beginning of the season.

We often use the Kambour home field advantage calculations or take a standard 3-point home field advantage ala Sagarin into account in predicting the scores.

Caveat emptor (Buyer beware): We make this material available in good fun out of interest for the sport of college football. Please do not rely on our material to place bets or wagers of any kind. No one knows the exact outcome of a game or a season before it is played and that is what makes it so interesting. We disclaim any and all liability for the consequences of anyone relying in any way upon our postings, analysis, links or reasoning - for which we make no warranty of accuracy. May the best team win.

We use opening lines, as far as possible, taking those opening lines from the College Football Prediction Tracker (CFPT), unless not yet posted, in which case we  use Oddsshark and VegasInsider.com -- also for the over/unders. We add over/unders as available, usually very late for matchups of FCS and FBS teams. All odds and stats are posted here by us WITHOUT ANY guarantee of accuracy, and WITHOUT ANY liability on our part for our posted materials or for links to 3rd party sites. We do our predictions here for fun. If odds and stats are important for the reader, the reader must consult the original sites.

Note that we write "was favored" or "were favored". The odds of the opening line are often changed by the time we make our predictions. We do not compete against those changed odds because we are not competing against bettors. We use the College Football Prediction Tracker (CFPT) prediction average as of the date that we find it. Note that there is no line given at CFPT for games between FCS and FBS opponents.

Friday, December 1, 2017

Stanford vs. USC
Pac 12 Conference Championship Game
USC was favored over Stanford by 3 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored
Stanford over USC by 0.81 points.
The over/under was 57.5 points.
Our call: 34-33 for Stanford. As a Stanford Law School alumnus, we are admittedly biased in favor of Stanford, but our stats here do actually favor Stanford by about a point.
Result: USC topped Stanford 31-28.
Thus far this 14th Week we are
0-1 in picking the winner,
0-0-1 against the spread,
0-1 against the CFPT average, and
1-0 against the over/under.


Akron vs. Toledo
MAC Conference Champioship Game
Toledo was favored over Akron by 18.5 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored
the Rockets over Zips by 15.46 points.
The over/under was 56.5 points.
Our call: 38-24 for Toledo.
Result: Toledo won 45-28.
Thus far this 14th Week we are
1-1 in picking the winner,
1-0-1 against the spread,
0-2 against the CFPT average, and
2-0 against the over/under.


Saturday, December 2, 2017

Memphis vs. UCF
AAC Conference Championship Game
UCF was favored over Memphis by 7 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored
Central Florida over the Tigers by 6.09 points.
The over/under was 85.5 points.
Our call: 38-37 for the Knights. The ypp stats of the two teams are very close.
Result: UCF won in two overtimes 62-55.
Thus far this 14th Week we are
2-1 in picking the winner,
1-0-2 against the spread,
0-3 against the CFPT average, and
2-1 against the over/under.


Louisiana-Monroe at Florida State
Florida State was favored over ULM by 27 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored
the Seminoles over the Warhawks by 24.20 points.
The over/under was 66 points.
Our call: 41-17 for Florida State.
Result: Florida State won 42-10.
Thus far this 14th Week we are
3-1 in picking the winner,
1-1-2 against the spread,
0-4 against the CFPT average, and
3-1 against the over/under.


Massachusetts at Florida International
FIU was favored over the Minutemen by 2 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored
FIU over UMass by 1.93 points.
The over/under was 62.5 points.
Our call: 31-27 for UMass.
Result: FIU won 63-45.
Thus far this 14th Week we are
3-2 in picking the winner,
1-2-2 against the spread,
0-5 against the CFPT average, and
3-2 against the over/under.


TCU vs. Oklahoma
Big 12 Conference Championship Game
Oklahoma was favored over TCU by 7 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored
the Sooners over the Horned Frogs by 4.46 points.
The over/under was 62.5 points.
Our call: 41-27 for Oklahoma.
Result: Oklahoma won 41-17.
Thus far this 14th Week we are
4-2 in picking the winner,
2-2-2 against the spread,
1-5 against the CFPT average, and
3-3 against the over/under.


North Texas vs. Florida Atlantic (FAU)
Conference USA Championship Game
FIU was favored over North Texas by 10 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored
the Owls over the Mean Green by 10.81 points.
The over/under was 74.5 points.
Our call: 34-27 for FAU.
Result: FAU beat the Mean Green 41-17.
Thus far this 14th Week we are
5-2 in picking the winner,
2-3-2 against the spread,
1-6 against the CFPT average, and
4-3 against the over/under.


Georgia Southern at Coastal Carolina
The game was seen as even. Take your pick.
The CFPT prediction average favored
Georgia Southern over the Chanticleers by 1.74 points.
The over/under was 53.5 points.
Our call: 31-27 for Georgia Southern.
Result: Coastal Carolina won 28-17.
Thus far this 14th Week we are
5-3 in picking the winner,
2-4-2 against the spread,
1-7 against the CFPT average, and
4-4 against the over/under.


Idaho at Georgia State
Georgia State was favored over Idaho by 4 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored
the Panthers over the Vandals by 4.40 points.
The over/under was 48.5 points.
Our call: 27-26 for Idaho.
Result: Idaho won 24-10.
Thus far this 14th Week we are
6-3 in picking the winner,
3-4-2 against the spread,
2-7 against the CFPT average, and
4-5 against the over/under.


Louisiana Lafayette (ULL) at Appalachian State
Appalachian State was favored over ULL by 15 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored
the Mountaineers over the Rahin' Cajuns by 13.98 points.
The over/under was 58.5/points.
Our call: 30-24 for Appalachian State.
Result: Appalachian State steamrolled the Ragin' Cajuns 63-14.
Thus far this 14th Week we are
7-3 in picking the winner,
3-5-2 against the spread,
2-8 against the CFPT average, and
4-6 against the over/under.


Georgia vs. Auburn
SEC Conference Championship Game
Auburn was favored over Georgia by 3 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored
the Tigers over the Dawgs by 0.83 points.
The over/under was 49 points.
Our call: 31-24 for Auburn.
Result: Georgia won 28-7.
Thus far this 14th Week we are
7-4 in picking the winner,
3-6-2 against the spread,
2-9 against the CFPT average, and
4-7 against the over/under.


South Alabama at New Mexico State
New Mexico State was favored over the Jaguars by 8.5 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored
the Aggies over South Alabama by 6 points.
The over/under was 54.5 points.
Our call: 30-24 for New Mexico State.
Result: New Mexico State won 22-17.
Thus far this 14th Week we are
8-4 in picking the winner,
4-6-2 against the spread,
2-9-1 against the CFPT average, and
5-7 against the over/under.


Troy at Arkansas State
Arkansas State was favored over Troy by 2 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored
the Red Wolves over the Trojans by 0.83 points.
The over/under was 58.5/points.
Our call: 31-27 for Troy.
Result: Troy won 32-25.
Thus far this 14th Week we are
9-4 in picking the winner,
5-6-2 against the spread,
3-9-1 against the CFPT average, and
6-7 against the over/under.


Fresno State at Boise State
Mountain West Conference Championship Game
Boise State was favored over the Bulldogs by 8.5 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored
the Broncos over Fresno State by 7.37 points.
The over/under was 49 points.
Our call: 27-26 for Fresno State
Result: Boise State won 17-14.
Thus far this 14th Week we are
9-5 in picking the winner,
6-6-2 against the spread,
4-9-1 against the CFPT average, and
6-8 against the over/under.


Miami of Florida vs Clemson
ACC Conference Championship Game
Clemson was favored over Miami by 7.5 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored
the Tigers over the Hurricanes by 6.66 points.
The over/under was 47.5 points.
Our call: 24-23 for Miami of Florida
Result: Clemson won 38-3. The final score was much worse than the stats as Miami averaged 3.6 yards per play and Clemson 4.4 yards per play, with the Tigers outgaining the Hurricanes 331 to 214 yards.
Thus far this 14th Week we are
9-6 in picking the winner,
6-7-2 against the spread,
4-10-1 against the CFPT average, and
7-8 against the over/under.


Ohio State vs. Wisconsin
Big Ten Conference Championship Game
Ohio State was favored over Wisconsin by 5.5 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored
the Buckeyes over the Badgers  by 1 point.
The over/under was 53 points.
Our call: 27-24 for Ohio State
Result: Ohio State won 27-21.
We finished the 14th Week as follows:
10-6 in picking the winner,
6-8-2 against the spread,
5-10-1 against the CFPT average, and
8-8 against the over/under.