"Where there is no vision, the people perish: but he that keepeth the law, happy is he."
-- Proverbs 29:18, King James Bible (KJV)

Wednesday, January 10, 2018

College Football Bowl Game Predictions (+ later-added Results) 2017/2018 Season NCAA Division I FBS Games

College Football Bowl Game Predictions (+ later-added Results) 2017/2018 Season NCAA Division I FBS Games

Update:
We put undefeated UCF at Nr. 1.
Georgia is 13-2 with a loss to Auburn (40-17). The Dawgs won "the return match" 28-7, which still gives Auburn a two-point edge.
Alabama is 13-1 with a loss to Auburn (24-16).
UCF (Central Florida) is 13-0 with a win over Auburn (34-27).
 
We finished the  2017-2108 Bowl Game season at:
22-20 in picking the winner,
17-23-2 against the spread,
17-24 against the CFPT average, and
22-20 against the over/under. 
and for the season we finished a cumulative:
657-215 in picking the winner
456-388-26 against the spread
411-367-1 against the CFPT average, and
427-433-10 against the over/under.

Below are the SportPundit predictions and (later-added) results for the bowl games of the NCAA Division I FBS College Football Season 2017-2018. Bowl predictions were based on this season's performance. See the SportPundit Preseason College Football Rankings and Ratings for FBS 2017-2018. We also used USA Today Sagarin College Football Ratings, the Massey Ratings and the Dr. Kambour home field advantage calculations. We composed the schedule here using FoxSports, ESPN, NCCA.com and other online sources.

Our system is based -- but not exclusively -- on our system of what we have christened as "NAYPPA" stats (net average yards per play advantage), calibrated primarily by adjusting for schedule difficulty, i.e. the teams thus far played, an adjustment which should get better as the season goes along, but this proves not always to be the case. We use yards per play stats published at cfbstats.com. Other adjustments are also made because the ypp (yards per play) system is not perfect, often exacerbating stats made against much weaker or much stronger teams, nor can schedule difficulty always be pinpointed with accuracy since many schedules include FCS teams, especially at the beginning of the season.

We often use the Kambour home field advantage calculations or take a standard 3-point home field advantage ala Sagarin into account in predicting the scores.

Caveat emptor (Buyer beware): We make this material available in good fun out of interest for the sport of college football. Please do not rely on our material to place bets or wagers of any kind. No one knows the exact outcome of a game or a season before it is played and that is what makes it so interesting. We disclaim any and all liability for the consequences of anyone relying in any way upon our postings, analysis, links or reasoning - for which we make no warranty of accuracy. May the best team win.

We use opening lines, as far as possible, taking those opening lines from the College Football Prediction Tracker (CFPT), unless not yet posted, in which case we use Oddsshark and VegasInsider.com -- also for the over/unders. We add over/unders as available, usually very late for matchups of FCS and FBS teams. All odds and stats are posted here by us WITHOUT ANY guarantee of  accuracy, and WITHOUT ANY liability on our part for our posted materials or for links to 3rd party sites. We do our predictions here for fun. If odds and stats are important for the reader, the reader must consult the original sites.

Note that we write "were favored" or "was favored". The odds of the opening line are often changed by the time we make our predictions. We do not compete against those changed odds because we are not competing against bettors. We use the College Football Prediction Tracker (CFPT) prediction average as of the date that we find it. Note that there is no line given at CFPT for games between FCS and FBS opponents.

Saturday, December 9, 2017

The Army Navy Game
Army vs. Navy
The Midshipmen were favored over the Black Knights by 3.5 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored Navy by 1.47 points.
The O/U (over/under) was 46 points.
Our Call: 30-24 for Navy.
Result: 14-13 für Army. Navy outgained Army 296 to 241 yards total offense but missed a game-winning field goal in the final seconds.
Thus far for the 2017-2108 Bowl Game Season we are:
0-1 in picking the winner,
0-1 against the spread,
0-1 against the CFPT average, and
0-1 against the over/under. 

A great game this weekend by the way was in Division III football, where the perennial championship finalist Mount Union Purple Raiders, down 35-10 late in the third quarter against the previously unbeaten Wisconsin-Oshkosh Titans, rallied for an amazing 43-40 win in one of the Division 3 semifinal championship games, thus advancing to the Stagg Bowl in Salem, Virginia, and a matchup against the defending Division III champion Mary Hardin-Baylor Crusaders ("the Cru"), who beat Brockport 24-0 in the other semifinal game.

Saturday, December 16, 2017

Celebration Bowl
Grambling vs. North Carolina A&T
The Aggies were favored over the Tigers by 9.5 points.
The O/U (over/under) was 52.5 points.
Our Call: 31-17 for NC A&T. The undefeated Aggies have the ypp NAYPPA advantage 2.4 to 0.9 against the once-beaten Tigers, who lost in their season opener to Tulane.
Result: North Carolina A&T won 21-14.
Thus far for the 2017-2108 Bowl Game Season we are:
1-1 in picking the winner,
0-2 against the spread,
0-1 against the CFPT average, and
1-1 against the over/under.

R+L CARRIERS NEW ORLEANS BOWL
Troy vs. North Texas
The Trojans were favored over the Mean Green by 7 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored Troy by 7.23 points.
The O/U (over/under) was 60.5 points.
Our Call: 34-24 for Troy.
Result: Troy won 50-30.
Thus far for the 2017-2108 Bowl Game Season we are:
2-1 in picking the winner,
0-2-1 against the spread,
0-2 against the CFPT average, and
1-2 against the over/under. 

AUTONATION CURE BOWL
Western Kentucky vs. Georgia State
The Hilltoppers were favored over the Panthers by 4.5 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored Western Kentucky by 4.87 points.
The O/U (over/under) was 50.5 points.
Our Call: 26-24 for Western Kentucky.
Result: Georgia State won 27-17.
Thus far for the 2017-2108 Bowl Game Season we are:
2-2 in picking the winner,
1-2-1 against the spread,
1-2 against the CFPT average, and
2-2 against the over/under. 

LAS VEGAS BOWL
Boise State vs. Oregon
The Ducks were favored over the Broncos by 7.5 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored Oregon by 1.70 points.
The O/U (over/under) was 59 points.
Our Call: 28-27 for Oregon.
Result: Boise State won 38-28.
Thus far for the 2017-2108 Bowl Game Season we are:
2-3 in picking the winner,
2-2-1 against the spread,
2-2 against the CFPT average, and
2-3 against the over/under. 

GILDAN NEW MEXICO BOWL
Marshall vs. Colorado State
The Rams were favored over the Thundering Herd by 5 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored Colorado State by 3.36 points.
The O/U (over/under) was 56 points.
Our Call: 31-27 for Colorado State.
Result: Marshall won 31-28.
Thus far for the 2017-2108 Bowl Game Season we are:
2-4 in picking the winner,
3-2-1 against the spread,
2-3 against the CFPT average, and
3-3 against the over/under. 

RAYCOM MEDIA CAMELLIA BOWL
Middle Tennessee vs. Arkansas State
The Red Wolves were favored over the Blue Raiders by 3.5 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored Arkansas State by 6.16 points.
The O/U (over/under) was 60.5 points.
Our Call: 27-26 for Middle Tennessee.
Result: Middle Tennessee won 35-30.
Thus far for the 2017-2108 Bowl Game Season we are:
3-4 in picking the winner,
4-2-1 against the spread,
3-3 against the CFPT average, and
3-4 against the over/under.

Tuesday, December 19, 2017

CHERIBUNDI TART CHERRY BOCA RATON BOWL 
Akron vs. Florida Atlantic (FAU)
The Owls were favored over the Zips by 17.5 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored FAU by 12.16 points.
The O/U (over/under) was 62.5 points.
Our Call: 34-23 for FAU.
Result: FAU won 50-3.
Thus far for the 2017-2108 Bowl Game Season we are:
4-4 in picking the winner,
4-3-1 against the spread,
3-4 against the CFPT average, and
4-4 against the over/under.

Wednesday, December 20, 2017 

DXL FRISCO BOWL
Louisiana Tech vs. SMU
The Mustangs were favored over the Bulldogs by 5.5 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored SMU by 6.97 points.
The O/U (over/under) was 70 points.
Our Call: 38-27 for SMU.
Result: Louisiana Tech won in a rout 51-10. Oh my. Chad Morris, the SMU head football coach during the season, took the head coaching job at Arkansas, and was replaced by Sonny Dykes, whose Mustangs were promptly blown out in a fiasco. SMU must hope it will be better next year. Stepping in can be tough.
Thus far for the 2017-2108 Bowl Game Season we are:
4-5 in picking the winner,
4-4-1 against the spread,
3-5 against the CFPT average, and
5-4 against the over/under. 

Thursday, December 21, 2017  

BAD BOY MOWERS GASPARILLA BOWL
Temple vs. Florida International (FIU)
The Owls were favored over the Golden Panthers by 8 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored Temple by 6.20 points.
The O/U (over/under) was 54 points.
Our Call: 30-27 for Temple.
Result: Temple won 28-3. The Owls' defense shut down the Golden Panthers.
Thus far for the 2017-2108 Bowl Game Season we are:
5-5 in picking the winner,
4-5-1 against the spread,
3-6 against the CFPT average, and
5-5 against the over/under.

Friday, December 22, 2017  

BAHAMAS BOWL
UAB vs. Ohio
The Bobcats were favored over the Blazers by 7.5 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored Ohio by 10.99 points.
The O/U (over/under) was 60.5 points.
Our Call: 34-20 for Ohio.
Result: Ohio won 41-6.
Thus far for the 2017-2108 Bowl Game Season we are:
6-5 in picking the winner,
5-5-1 against the spread,
4-6 against the CFPT average, and
6-5 against the over/under. 

FAMOUS IDAHO POTATO BOWL
Central Michigan vs. Wyoming
The game was seen as even. Take your pick.
The CFPT prediction average favored Central Michigan by 1.20 points.
The O/U (over/under) was 46.5 points.
Our Call: 24-21 for Central Michigan.
Result: Wyoming won 37-14.
Thus far for the 2017-2108 Bowl Game Season we are:
6-6 in picking the winner,
5-6-1 against the spread,
4-7 against the CFPT average, and
6-6 against the over/under. 

Saturday, December 23, 2017   

BIRMINGHAM BOWL 
Texas Tech vs. South Florida (USF)
The Bulls were favored over the Red Raiders by 2.5 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored South Florida by 1.68 points.
The O/U (over/under) was 65.5 points.
Our Call: 34-31 for Texas Tech.
Result: USF won 38-34.
Thus far for the 2017-2108 Bowl Game Season we are:
6-7 in picking the winner,
5-7-1 against the spread,
4-8 against the CFPT average, and
6-7 against the over/under. 

LOCKHEED MARTIN ARMED FORCES BOWL
San Diego State vs. Army
The Aztecs were favored over the Black Knights by 7.5 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored San Diego State by 4.52 points.
The O/U (over/under) was 49.5 points.
Our Call: 28-20 for San Diego State. Both teams have top rushing offenses, but the Aztecs seem to have the better rushing defense -- see cfbstats.com stats.
Result: Army won 42-35.
Thus far for the 2017-2108 Bowl Game Season we are:
6-8 in picking the winner,
5-8-1 against the spread,
4-9 against the CFPT average, and
6-8 against the over/under. 

DOLLAR GENERAL BOWL 
Appalachian State vs. Toledo
The Rockets were favored over the Mountaineers by 7.5 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored Toledo by 7.91 points.
The O/U (over/under) was 62.5 points.
Our Call: 34-24 for Toledo.
Result: Appalachian State won 34-0 against a Toledo team that had averaged 39.2 points per game during the season.
Thus far for the 2017-2108 Bowl Game Season we are:
6-9 in picking the winner,
5-9-1 against the spread,
4-10 against the CFPT average, and
7-8 against the over/under. 

Sunday, December 24, 2017  

HAWAI'I BOWL 
Fresno State vs. Houston
The Cougars were favored over the Bulldogs by 1.5 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored Houston by 1.54 points.
The O/U (over/under) was 47 points.
Our Call: 27-26 for Houston.
Result: Fresno State won 33-27.
Thus far for the 2017-2108 Bowl Game Season we are:
6-10 in picking the winner,
6-9-1 against the spread,
5-10 against the CFPT average, and
8-8 against the over/under. 

Tuesday, December 26, 2017   

ZAXBY'S HEART OF DALLAS BOWL
Utah vs. West Virginia
The Utes were favored over the Mountaineers by 4 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored Utah by 0.28 points.
The O/U (over/under) was 54 points.
Our Call: 31-30 for Utah.
Result: Utah won 30-14.
Thus far for the 2017-2108 Bowl Game Season we are:
7-10 in picking the winner,
6-10-1 against the spread,
6-10 against the CFPT average, and
8-9 against the over/under. 

QUICK LANE BOWL
Duke vs. Northern Illinois
The Blue Devils were favored over the Huskies by 3 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored Duke by 5.99 points.
The O/U (over/under) was 47.5 points.
Our Call: 26-24 for Duke.
Result: Duke won 36-14.
Thus far for the 2017-2108 Bowl Game Season we are:
8-10 in picking the winner,
6-11-1 against the spread,
6-11 against the CFPT average, and
9-9 against the over/under. 

CACTUS BOWL
Kansas State vs. UCLA
The Wildcats were favored over the Bruins by 3 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored Kansas State by 3.95 points.
The O/U (over/under) was 63.5 points.
Our Call: 33-31 for Kansas State.
Result: Kansas State won 35-17.
Thus far for the 2017-2108 Bowl Game Season we are:
9-10 in picking the winner,
6-12-1 against the spread,
6-12 against the CFPT average, and
9-10 against the over/under.

Wednesday, December 27, 2017  

WALK ON'S INDEPENDENCE BOWL 
Southern Mississippi vs. Florida State
The Seminoles were favored over the Golden Eagles by 15 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored Florida State by 16.60 points.
The O/U (over/under) was 50 points.
Our Call: 37-16 for Florida State.
Result: Florida State won 42-13.
Thus far for the 2017-2108 Bowl Game Season we are:
10-10 in picking the winner,
7-12-1 against the spread,
7-12 against the CFPT average, and
10-10 against the over/under.

NEW ERA PINSTRIPE BOWL 
Iowa vs. Boston College
The Hawkeyes were favored over the Eagles by 3 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored Iowa by 3.49 points.
The O/U (over/under) was 45.5 points.
Our Call: 27-20 for Iowa.
Result: Iowa won 27-20. We picked this score right on the nose.
Thus far for the 2017-2108 Bowl Game Season we are:
11-10 in picking the winner,
8-12-1 against the spread,
8-12 against the CFPT average, and
11-10 against the over/under.
    
FOSTER FARMS BOWL
Arizona vs. Purdue
The Wildcats were favored over the Boilermakers by 3.5 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored Purdue by 2.15 points.
The O/U (over/under) was 66.5 points.
Our Call: 34-30 for Arizona.
Result: Purdue won 38-35.
Thus far for the 2017-2108 Bowl Game Season we are:
11-11 in picking the winner,
8-13-1 against the spread,
8-13 against the CFPT average, and
11-11 against the over/under.
  
ACADEMY SPORTS + OUTDOORS TEXAS BOWL
Texas vs. Missouri
The Tigers were favored over the Longhorns by 1 point.
The CFPT prediction average favored Texas by 4.09 points.
The O/U (over/under) was 60 points.
Our Call: 34-27 for Missouri. The Tigers have a six-game winning streak.
Result: Texas won 33-16.
Thus far for the 2017-2108 Bowl Game Season we are:
11-12 in picking the winner,
8-14-1 against the spread,
8-14 against the CFPT average, and
11-12 against the over/under.

Thursday, December 28, 2017   

MILITARY BOWL PRESENTED BY NORTHROP GRUMMAN 
Virginia vs. Navy
The game was seen as even. Take your pick.
The CFPT prediction average favored Navy by 1.52 points.
The O/U (over/under) was 55 points.
Our Call: 30-27 for Virginia.
Result: Navy won 49-7.
Thus far for the 2017-2108 Bowl Game Season we are:
11-13 in picking the winner,
8-15-1 against the spread,
8-15 against the CFPT average, and
12-12 against the over/under.

CAMPING WORLD BOWL
Virginia Tech vs. Oklahoma State
The Cowboys were favored over the Hokies by 6 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored Oklahoma State by 1.99 points.
The O/U (over/under) was 63 points.
Our Call: 34-27 for Oklahoma State.
Result: Oklahoma State won 30-21.
Thus far for the 2017-2108 Bowl Game Season we are:
12-13 in picking the winner,
9-15-1 against the spread,
9-15 against the CFPT average, and
13-12 against the over/under.

VALERO ALAMO BOWL
Stanford vs. TCU
The Horned Frogs were favored over the Cardinal by 2.5 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored TCU by 1.44 points.
The O/U (over/under) was 47.5 points.
Our Call: 24-23 for Stanford. As a Stanford Law School alumnus, we are admittedly biased, and we thus go with the Cardinal.
Result: TCU won 39-37.
Thus far for the 2017-2108 Bowl Game Season we are:
12-14 in picking the winner,
10-15-1 against the spread,
9-16 against the CFPT average, and
13-13 against the over/under.
  
SAN DIEGO COUNTY CREDIT UNION HOLIDAY BOWL
Washington State vs. Michigan State
The Cougars were favored over the Spartans by 2.5 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored Michigan State by 0.17 points.
The O/U (over/under) was 44.5 points.
Our Call: 23-20 for Michigan State.
Result: Michigan State won 42-17.
Thus far for the 2017-2108 Bowl Game Season we are:
13-14 in picking the winner,
11-15-1 against the spread,
10-16 against the CFPT average, and
13-14 against the over/under.

Friday, December 29, 2017    

BELK BOWL
Wake Forest vs. Texas A&M
The Demon Deacons were favored over the Aggies by 3 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored Wake Forest by 3.94 points.
The O/U (over/under) was 64 points.
Our Call: 34-27 for Wake Forest.
Result: Wake Forest won 55-52.
Thus far for the 2017-2108 Bowl Game Season we are:
14-14 in picking the winner,
11-15-2 against the spread,
10-17 against the CFPT average, and
13-15 against the over/under.

HYUNDAI SUN BOWL
North Carolina State (NC State) vs. Arizona State
The Wolfpack were favored over the Sun Devils by 7 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored NC State by 5.80 points.
The O/U (over/under) was 59.5 points.
Our Call: 34-24 for N.C. State.
Result: NC State won 52-31.
Thus far for the 2017-2108 Bowl Game Season we are:
15-14 in picking the winner,
12-15-2 against the spread,
11-17 against the CFPT average, and
13-16 against the over/under.
 
FRANKLIN AMERICAN MORTGAGE MUSIC CITY BOWL
Kentucky vs. Northwestern
The Wildcats of Northwestern were favored over the Wildcats of Kentucky by 7.5 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored Northwestern by 13.20 points.
The O/U (over/under) was 51 points.
Our Call: 31-17 for Northwestern.
Result: Northwestern won 24-23.
Thus far for the 2017-2108 Bowl Game Season we are:
16-14 in picking the winner,
12-16-2 against the spread,
11-18 against the CFPT average, and
14-16 against the over/under.
 
NOVA HOME LOANS ARIZONA BOWL
Utah State vs. New Mexico State
The Aggies of Utah State were favored over the Aggies of New Mexico State by 4 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored Utah State by 8.06 points.
The O/U (over/under) was 61 points.
Our Call: 30-27 for Utah State.
Result: New Mexico State won 26-20 in overtime.
Thus far for the 2017-2108 Bowl Game Season we are:
16-15 in picking the winner,
13-16-2 against the spread,
12-18 against the CFPT average, and
15-16 against the over/under.

GOODYEAR COTTON BOWL CLASSIC 
USC (Southern Cal) vs. Ohio State
The Buckeyes were favored over the Trojans by 6.5 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored Ohio State by 9.43 points.
The O/U (over/under) was 64 points.
Our Call: 34-24 for Ohio State.
Result: Ohio State won 24-7.
Thus far for the 2017-2108 Bowl Game Season we are:
17-15 in picking the winner,
14-16-2 against the spread,
13-18 against the CFPT average, and
16-16 against the over/under.

Saturday, December 30, 2017   

TAXSLAYER BOWL
Louisville vs. Mississippi State
The Cardinals were favored over the Bulldogs by 5 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored Louisville by 1.32 points.
The O/U (over/under) was 61.5 points.
Our Call: 34-27 for Louisville.
Result: Mississippi State won 31-27.
Thus far for the 2017-2108 Bowl Game Season we are:
17-16 in picking the winner,
14-17-2 against the spread,
13-19 against the CFPT average, and
17-16 against the over/under.

AUTOZONE LIBERTY BOWL
Iowa State vs. Memphis
The Tigers were favored over the Cyclones by 3.5 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored Iowa State by 0.01 points.
The O/U (over/under) was 65.5 points.
Our Call: 34-30 for Iowa State.
Result: Iowa State won 21-20.
Thus far for the 2017-2108 Bowl Game Season we are:
18-16 in picking the winner,
14-18-2 against the spread,
13-20 against the CFPT average, and
18-16 against the over/under.
 
PLAYSTATION FIESTA BOWL
Washington vs. Penn State
The Nittany Lions were favored over the Huskies by 4.5 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored Penn State by 4.6 points.
The O/U (over/under) was 55 points.
Our Call: 27-26 for Penn State.
Result: Penn State won 35-28.
Thus far for the 2017-2108 Bowl Game Season we are:
19-16 in picking the winner,
14-19-2 against the spread,
13-21 against the CFPT average, and
18-17 against the over/under.
  
CAPITAL ONE ORANGE BOWL
Wisconsin vs. Miami of Florida
The Badgers were favored over the Hurricanes by 6 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored Wisconsin by 7.13 points.
The O/U (over/under) was 45 points.
Our Call: 27-24 for Wisconsin.
Result: Wisconsin won 34-24.
Thus far for the 2017-2108 Bowl Game Season we are:
20-16 in picking the winner,
14-20-2 against the spread,
13-22 against the CFPT average, and
19-17 against the over/under. 

Monday, January 1, 2018
    
OUTBACK BOWL
Michigan vs. South Carolina
The Wolverines were favored over the Gamecocks by 8.5 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored Michigan by 8.39 points.
The O/U (over/under) was 43 points.
Our Call: 27-20 for Michigan.
Result: South Carolina won 26-19, forcing five turnovers in the 2nd half. FIVE. We have a Michigan grad in the family and this was an unacceptable outcome. With a bit more than 2 minutes left in the 3rd quarter, Michigan led 19-3 and then collapsed -- inexcusably -- both on offense as well as defense, for an ignominious loss. Either you play to win or you do not belong on the field. If you play not to lose, you will likely lose. That is what distinguishes champions from non-champions. Champions play to win, not "not to lose". We see now that the emperor wears no clothes. Harbaugh needs better coaching and less circus, while the outdated offense must be revamped to modern standards. Not poor quarterbacks but the rusty system and bad playcalling are at fault. What Scott Frost achieved in two years at UCF is a lesson to many coaches out there, regardless of who they are, who are still driving their nostalgic Model T Fords in the football systems they employ.
Thus far for the 2017-2108 Bowl Game Season we are:
20-17 in picking the winner,
15-20-2 against the spread,
14-22 against the CFPT average, and
20-17 against the over/under. 

CHICK-FIL-A PEACH BOWL 
UCF (Central Florida) vs. Auburn
The Tigers were favored over the Knights by 9.5 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored Auburn by 6.75 points.
The O/U (over/under) was 65 points.
Our Call: 40-34 for Auburn. As a Nebraska alum, we are great fans of Scott Frost and UCF and congratulate the Knights on their unbeaten regular season, and Frost for winning Coach of the Year accolades, and trust, as we already urged some years ago, that Frost proves to be the right man to lead the Nebraska Cornhuskers out of their current football abyss. However, this bowl matchup against one of the best defenses in the country could be a tough game for the Central Florida offense. Auburn allowed both Clemson and Alabama offenses only 14 points the entire game. If UCF can do better, even if they lose this game, they will have prevailed in principle in showcasing their modern spread offense. UCF would surely have preferred a matchup against a "Power 5 conference" high-ranked team having a strong offense but only an average defense, trading touchdown for touchdown, whereas if Malzahn's Tigers can shut down the UCF offense, it could be a long game for the Knights. We keep the spread low here to honor this season's UCF achievements, whereas the difference in schedule difficulty of the two teams would warrant a much higher spread. But who knows, one could be surprised. We hope so.
Result: UCF won 34-27. We congratulate UCF to a fabulous season and postseason as the only FBS team to finish undefeated this season. In our book, they deserve the title of national champions, having beaten Auburn, a team that this season (at least in the first matchup) beat both finalists for the playoff finals (Alabama and Georgia), playoffs from which Central Florida was wrongly excluded, resulting now in an all SEC final between the two losers to Auburn, a result which is not good for college football, and is what happens when championship contestants are decided at a biased non-objective negotiating table, rather than on the objective arena of the football field.
Thus far for the 2017-2108 Bowl Game Season we are:
20-18 in picking the winner,
16-20-2 against the spread,
15-22 against the CFPT average, and
20-18 against the over/under. 

CITRUS BOWL PRESENTED BY OVERTON'S
Notre Dame vs. LSU
The Tigers were favored over the Fighting Irish by 1 point.
The CFPT prediction average favored Notre Dame by 4.07 points.
The O/U (over/under) was 50 points.
Our Call: 27-24 for LSU.
Result: Notre Dame won 21-17 on a 55-yard pass play with 1:39 remaining.
Thus far for the 2017-2108 Bowl Game Season we are:
20-19 in picking the winner,
16-21-2 against the spread,
15-23 against the CFPT average, and
20-19 against the over/under.

College Football Playoff Semifinal Game 1
ROSE BOWL GAME PRESENTED BY NORTHWESTERN MUTUAL
Georgia vs. Oklahoma
The game was seen as even. Take your pick.
The CFPT prediction average favored Georgia by 0.07 points.
The O/U (over/under) was 60 points.
Our Call: 41-27 for Oklahoma. Our stats give the Sooners a commanding edge.
Result: Oklahoma led 31-17 at halftime after stupidly gifting a 55-yard field goal at the end of the first half, which proved to be the difference, as Georgia came back to tie the game 45-45 in regulation and won in two overtimes 54-48.
Thus far for the 2017-2108 Bowl Game Season we are:
20-20 in picking the winner,
16-22-2 against the spread,
15-24 against the CFPT average, and
20-20 against the over/under.
College Football Playoff Semifinal Game 2
ALLSTATE SUGAR BOWL
Alabama vs. Clemson
The Crimson Tide were favored over the Tigers by 1.5 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored Clemson by 0.35 points.
The O/U (over/under) was 47 points.
Our Call: 24-17 for Alabama.
Result: Alabama won 24-6.
Thus far for the 2017-2108 Bowl Game Season we are:
21-20 in picking the winner,
17-22-2 against the spread,
16-24 against the CFPT average, and
21-20 against the over/under. 

So we have an all-SEC final coming up, which is not good for college football, with an undefeated FBS team as well as the Big Ten champion (the strongest conference, judging by the bowl outcomes) being excluded from the four semifinalists. It is a total failure of the present ill-advised playoff system of four teams selected by beauty popularity. There should be at least eight teams, one conference champion from each of the five Power 5 conferences, one team at least from the other conferences, and one or two at-large candidates selected by the committee, which in the instant case should have been Alabama and Auburn. Then, let them play and let the game decide, not some biased playoff committee.

Monday, January 8, 2018

College Football Playoff Championship Final Presented by AT&T 
Georgia vs. Alabama
The Crimson Tide were favored over the Dawgs by 4.0 points.
The CFPT prediction average favored Alabama by 1.93 points.
The O/U (over/under) was 45.5 points.
Our Call: 30-24 for Alabama. Sinced we regard the schedule difficulty of both teams to be comparable, we make this call strictly on the basis of NAYPPA, the net average yards per play advantage of each team over the course of this season, which has Alabama up by 2.8 yards per play, making it one of the best teams of all time by the NAYPPA parameter, and Georgia is up by 2.2 yards per play, a difference of which .6 yards we multiply by 10 to give us the predicted score differentical of 6 points in favor of 'Bama. Interestingly, if we look at the socring point totals in games played against Auburn, Georgia is -2 versus Auburn for their two games and Alabama is -8 versus Auburn for their one game, giving Alabama again a six-point advantage. We think UCF beat Auburn fair and square by 7 and thus deserves the national championship since they are undefeated. Why should UCF be ranked lower?
Who really cares about this playoff final? 
Georgia is 12-1 with a loss to Auburn (40-17). The Dawgs won "the return match" 28-7, which still gives Auburn a two-point scoreboard edge.
Alabama is 12-1 with a loss to Auburn (24-16), for an 8-point Auburn edge.

UCF (Central Florida) is 13-0 with a win over Auburn (34-27).
We thus put undefeated UCF at Nr. 1 in our final rankings
and all the rest of the teams below that, although our normal stat analysis would still put Alabama first.
Result: Alabama won 26-23 in overtime.


Most Popular Posts of All Time

Sky Earth Native America

Sky Earth Native America 1 :
American Indian Rock Art Petroglyphs Pictographs
Cave Paintings Earthworks & Mounds as Land Survey & Astronomy
,
Volume 1, Edition 2, 266 pages, by Andis Kaulins.

  • Sky Earth Native America 2 :
    American Indian Rock Art Petroglyphs Pictographs
    Cave Paintings Earthworks & Mounds as Land Survey & Astronomy
    ,
    Volume 2, Edition 2, 262 pages, by Andis Kaulins.

  • Both volumes have the same cover except for the labels "Volume 1" viz. "Volume 2".
    The image on the cover was created using public domain space photos of Earth from NASA.

    -----

    Both book volumes contain the following basic book description:
    "Alice Cunningham Fletcher observed in her 1902 publication in the American Anthropologist
    that there is ample evidence that some ancient cultures in Native America, e.g. the Pawnee in Nebraska,
    geographically located their villages according to patterns seen in stars of the heavens.
    See Alice C. Fletcher, Star Cult Among the Pawnee--A Preliminary Report,
    American Anthropologist, 4, 730-736, 1902.
    Ralph N. Buckstaff wrote:
    "These Indians recognized the constellations as we do, also the important stars,
    drawing them according to their magnitude.
    The groups were placed with a great deal of thought and care and show long study.
    ... They were keen observers....
    The Pawnee Indians must have had a knowledge of astronomy comparable to that of the early white men."
    See Ralph N. Buckstaff, Stars and Constellations of a Pawnee Sky Map,
    American Anthropologist, Vol. 29, Nr. 2, April-June 1927, pp. 279-285, 1927.
    In our book, we take these observations one level further
    and show that megalithic sites and petroglyphic rock carving and pictographic rock art in Native America,
    together with mounds and earthworks, were made to represent territorial geographic landmarks
    placed according to the stars of the sky using the ready map of the starry sky
    in the hermetic tradition, "as above, so below".
    That mirror image of the heavens on terrestrial land is the "Sky Earth" of Native America,
    whose "rock stars" are the real stars of the heavens, "immortalized" by rock art petroglyphs, pictographs,
    cave paintings, earthworks and mounds of various kinds (stone, earth, shells) on our Earth.
    These landmarks were placed systematically
    in North America, Central America (Meso-America) and South America
    and can to a large degree be reconstructed as the Sky Earth of Native America."

    Our Website and Blogs

    3D Printing and More 99 is not 100 Aabecis AK Photo Blog Ancient Egypt Weblog Ancient Signs (the book) Ancient World Blog AndisKaulins.com Anthropomorphic Design Archaeology Travel Photos (blog) Archaeology Travel Photos (Flickr) Archaeo Pundit Arts Pundit Astrology and Birth Baltic Coachman Bible Pundit Biotechnology Pundit Book Pundit Chronology of the Ancient World Computer Pundit Drone Universe Blog DVD Pundit Easter Island Script Echolat edu.edu Einstein’s Voice Energy Environment and Climate Blog Etruscan Bronze Liver of Piacenza EU Laws EU Legal EU Pundit Events & Realities FaceBook Pundit Gadget Pundit Garden Pundit Golf Pundit Google Pundit Gourmet Pundit Hand Proof HousePundit Human Migrations Idea Pundit Illyrian Language Indus Valley Script Infinity One : The Secret of the First Disk (the game) Jostandis Journal Pundit Kaulins Genealogy Blog Kaulinsium Kiel & Kieler Latvian Blog LawPundit.com Law Pundit Blog LexiLine.com LexiLine Forum at ProBoards LexiLine Group at Yahoo! Lexiline Journal Library Pundit Lingwhizt LinkedIn Literary Pundit Magnifichess Make it Music Maps and Cartography Megalithic World Megaliths Blog Megaliths.net Minoan Culture Mutatis Mutandis Nanotech Pundit Nostratic Languages Official Pundit Phaistos Disc Pharaonic Hieroglyphs Photo Blog of the World Pinterest Prehistoric Art Pundit Private Wealth Blog PunditMania Quanticalian Quick to Travel Quill Pundit Road Pundit Sky Earth Drones Sky Earth Native America SlideShare (akaulins) Sport Pundit Star Pundit Stars Stones and Scholars (blog) Stars Stones and Scholars (book) Stonehenge Pundit The Enchanted Glass Twitter Pundit UbiquitousPundit VoicePundit WatchPundit Wearable Technology Wizard WeTechWi Wine Pundit Word Pundit xistmz YahooPundit zistmz