Sunday, December 01, 2013

2013 FBS College Football Rankings after WEEK 14 of play, by SportPundit

Below are the 2013 FBS College Football Rankings after WEEK 14 of play, by SportPundit.

Please read the indented material unless you are already familiar with it.
Caveat emptor (Buyer beware): We make this material available in good fun out of interest for the sport of college football. Please do not rely on our material to place bets or wagers of any kind. No one knows the exact outcome of a game or a season before it is played and that is what makes it so interesting. We disclaim any and all liability for the consequences of anyone relying in any way upon our postings, analysis, links or reasoning - for which we make no warranty of accuracy. May the best team win.

These ratings and rankings are based in part on our primary measure of "net average yards per play advantage" (NAYPPA), a specific predictive calculation which we were the first to implement, minus a calculation based on the schedule difficulty and a penalty for losses. Gauging schedule difficulty is always an approximation!

Yards per play stats are taken from cfbstats.com. In recent years, an average FBS team gained ca. 5.4 yards per play on offense and allowed ca. 5.4 yards per play on defense, a stat that holds fairly constant from year to year, but slightly affected by FCS scheduling.
 
Massey Ratings schedule difficulty ratings are used in part, but we have our own -- objective and subjective -- judgments and adjustments to handle schedule difficulty.
As a general rule of thumb for our rankings and ratings -- taking the NAYPPA, we subtract .01 times 2x the schedule difficulty up to 50, and .01 times 3x the schedule difficulty for 55 and up. We subtract .2 for every loss. The system is a bit unwieldy for calculation, but we have to account for strong teams beating up on weak ones.

As a measuring stick, note that the best (undefeated) college teams of all time had a NAYPPA of not greater than 3.0 for an entire season. Schedules have become easier recently, e.g. through FCS scheduling, and Boise State had a 3.5 "season NAYPPA" three years ago but lost a game and played an easier schedule than top teams. According to the yards-per-play standard, the 2012-2013 Alabama team would have been ranked among the best teams ever, had they not lost to Texas A&M. But they did lose.

See Best Teams Ever: (top three as examples below)
We repeat that in past recent years, an average FBS team gained ca. 5.4 yards per play on offense and allowed ca. 5.4 yards per play on defense, a statistic that has held fairly constant.

THE 2013 SportPundit & YPPSYS TEAM RANKINGS AND RATINGS after WEEK 14


Team
Rank
AFTER
Week
- 14 -
2013
by 
Sport
Pundit
AFTER
Week
 - 14 -
2013

* =
adjustment

NAYPPA
net average yards per play advantage offense over defense based on stats from cfbstats.com
(our calculation) 


yards
per
play offense

yards
per
play defense


Schedule difficulty
*plus or minus  subjective adjustments*
 (calculation based in part on Massey Ratings AND also a lot on our own past ratings and rankings)


W-L
(won
-loss)
record
2013

YPPSYS
Team
Rating NAYPPA
minus .01 x
2x schedule difficulty up to 50 minus 3x schedule difficulty thereafter
minus .2 for every loss.

Florida State
3.8

7.8
4.0

70*
12-0
+1.7
Alabama
2.4

7.1
4.7

45*
11-1
+1.3
3 Ohio State 2.5

7.2
4.7

70*
12-0
+0.4
4 Auburn 1.3

7.0
5.7

35*
10-1
+0.4
5 Missouri 1.6

6.7
5.1

45*
11-1
+0.4
6Stanford 1.4

6.3
4.9

30*
9-2
+0.4
7 Oregon 2.9

7.6
4.7

70*
10-2
+0.4

8 LSU 2.0

7.2
5.2

50*
9-3
+0.4
9 Michigan State 1.5

5.3
3.8

50*
11-1
+0.3
10 Oklahoma St. 1.2

5.9
4.7

50**
10-1
+0.0
11 Arizona State
0.7


5.9
5.2


15*
10-2
+0.0
12 Georgia 1.4

6.8
5.4

45*
8-4
-0.3
13 South Carolina
0.9


6.3
5.4

45*
10-2
-0.4
14 UCLA 0.9

6.0
5.1

40*
9-3
-0.5
15 Washington 1.5

6.6
5.1

50**
8-4
-0.5
16 Baylor
3.1


7.8
4.7


115*

10-1

-0.6

17 Wisconsin
2.4


6.9
4.5


80*

9-3

-0.6

18 USC 1.0

6.0
5.0

50*
9-3
-0.6
19 Clemson 1.3

6.3
5.0

60*
10-2
-0.7
20 Texas A&M 1.1

7.3
6.2

50*

8-4

-0.7 

21 UCF 1.3

6.6
5.3

70*
10-1
-1.0
22 Louisville 2.6

6.7
4.1

115*
10-1
-1.0
23 Texas 0.2

5.6
5.4

50**
8-3
-1.5
24 Oklahoma0.8

5.9
5.1

65*
9-2
-1.5
25 Michigan 0.3

5.5
5.2

40**
7-5
-1.5
26 Notre Dame 1.0

6.1
5.1

55*
8-4
-1.5
27 Mississippi St.
0.2


5.8
5.6


40*

6-6

-1.8

28 Mississippi 0.8

6.3
5.5

55*
7-5
-1.8
29 Kansas State 1.2

6.3
5.1

65*
7-5
-1.8
30 BYU 1.1

5.9
4.8

70*
8-4
-1.8
31 North. Illinois 1.8

7.1
5.3

120*
12-0
-1.8
32 Fresno State 1.1

6.8
5.7

90*
10-1
-1.8
33 Iowa
0.8


5.4
4.6

60*
8-4
-1.8
34 Vanderbilt 0.3

5.4
5.1

55*
8-4
-1.8
35 Virginia Tech 0.7

5.0
4.3

60*
8-4
-1.9
36 Washington St. -0.4

5.5
5.9

40*
6-6
-2.0
37 Arizona 0.4

5.7
5.3

55*
7-5

-2.1
38 Boise State 0.8


6.0
5.2

70*
8-4
-2.1
39 Utah State
1.1


5.6
4.5


80*

8-4

-2.1

40 Minnesota -0.5

5.2
5.7

45*
8-4
-2.2
41 Nebraska 0.4

5.6
5.2

60*
8-4
-2.2
42 Oregon State 0.0

6.1
6.1

50*
6-6
-2.2
43 Indiana -0.1

6.6
6.7

35*
5-7
-2.2
44 Bowling Green 1.8

6.6
4.8

115*
9-3
-2.2
45 Marshall 1.9

6.6
4.7

115*
9-3
-2.2
46 East Carolina 1.0

5.9
4.9

85*
9-3
-2.2
47 Cincinnati 1.7

6.4
4.7

115*
9-2
-2.2
48 Houston 0.6

5.8
5.2

70*
8-4
-2.3
49 Penn State 0.4

5.7
5.3

55*
7-5
-2.3
50 Florida-0.5

4.8
5.3

0***
4-8
-2.3
51 Tennessee -0.9

5.2
6.1

0***
5-7
-2.3
52 Toledo 0.6

6.4
5.8

75*
7-5
-2.3
53 Utah 0.1

5.5
5.4

50*
5-7
-2.3
54 Texas Tech 0.4

5.8
5.4

55*
7-5
-2.3
55 Duke 0.6

5.9
5.3

85*
10-2
-2.3
56 Georgia Tech 0.7

6.2
5.5

65*
7-5
-2.3

57 North Carolina 0.7

6.0
5.3

60*
6-6
-2.3
58 TCU 0.2

5.0
4.8

45*
4-8
-2.3
59 Miami (Florida) 1.6

7.0
5.6

110*
9-3
-2.3
60 Boston College 0.4

6.2
5.8

65*
7-5
-2.5
61 San Diego St. 0.3

5.6
5.3

60**
7-5
-2.5
62 Navy 0.1

5.9
5.8

60*
7-4
-2.5
63 Arkansas -0.6

5.5
6.1

0***
3-9
-2.5
64 Northwestern -0.1

5.4
5.5

50*
5-7
-2.5
65 Ball State 1.1

6.7
5.6

110*
10-2
-2.6
66 Pittsburgh -0.3

5.3
5.6

55*
6-6
-2.9
67 Buffalo -0.1

5.4
5.5

70*
8-4
-3.0
68 Syracuse -0.3

5.1
5.4

55**
6-6
-3.0
69 Iowa State -1.2

4.8
6.0

0*
3-9
-3.0
70 Wake Forest -0.6

4.4
5.0

50*
4-8
-3.0
71 Illinois -0.8

5.9
6.7

30**
4-8
-3.0
72 Maryland 0.8

5.8
5.0

95***
7-5
-3.0
73 West Virginia -0.4

5.5
5.9

55*
4-8
-3.0
74 Louis.-Lafayette 0.7

6.5
5.8

115*
8-3
-3.0
75 Rice 0.2

5.4
5.2

85*
9-3
-3.0
76 SMU 0.0

5.6
5.6

60*
5-6
-3.0
77 UTSA 0.6

6.0
5.4

85*
7-5
-3.0
78 North Texas 0.3

5.6
5.2

85*
8-4
-3.0
79 San Jose St. 0.3

6.2
6.1

70***
6-6
-3.0

80 Mid. Tennessee 0.4

5.7
5.3

90*
8-4
-3.1
81  Florida Atlantic  0.5

5.4
4.9

80*
6-6
-3.1
82 UNLV -0.3

5.5
5.8

70*
7-5
-3.4
83  Rutgers -0.5

5.4
5.9

60*
5-6
-3.5
84 Tulane -0.4

4.5
4.9

75*
7-5
-3.6
85 Virginia -1.2

4.4
5.6

20***
2-10
-3.6
86 West. Kentucky 1.0

6.3
5.3

125*
8-4
-3.6
87 Colorado -0.8

5.3
6.1

50*
4-8
-3.6
88 Colorado State 0.5

6.3
5.8

100*
7-6
-3.7
89 Kentucky -1.0

5.3
6.3

45*
2-10
-3.8
90 Memphis -0.2

4.8
5.0

65**
3-8
-3.8
91 Arkansas State -0.3

5.6
5.9

85*
7-5
-3.8
92 Ohio -0.1

5.6
5.7

90*

7-5

-3.8

93 Akron -0.6

4.9
5.5

60*
5-7
-3.8
94 Louis.-Monroe 
-0.8


5.0
5.8


60*

6-6

-3.8
95 Troy -0.7

6.0
6.7

65*
6-6
-3.9
96 Texas State -0.3

5.1
5.4

85*
6-6
-3.9
97 South Alabama 0.1

5.9
5.8

90*
5-6
-4.0
98 N.C. State -0.8

5.1
5.9

55**
3-9
-4.0
99  Cent. Michigan  -0.5

5.4
5.9

75**
6-6
-4.0
100 Nevada -1.8

5.3
7.1

35***
4-8
-4.1
101 Wyoming 0.2

6.2
6.0

85*
5-7
-4.1
102 California -1.9

5.2
7.1

0*
1-11
-4.1
103 South Florida -1.0

4.4
5.4

55*
2-9
-4.3
104 Tulsa -0.8

4.7
5.5

60**
3-9
-4.4
105 Kent State -0.5

5.6
6.1


75*
4-8
-4.4
106 New Mexico -0.9

6.5
7.4

60**
3-9
-4.5
107 Connecticut -1.3

4.4
5.7

55*
2-9
-4.6
108 Temple -0.7

5.7
6.4

70*
2-10
-4.8

109 Air Force -1.0

5.4
6.4

65*
2-10
-4.8
110  Kansas -1.4

4.4
5.8

55*
3-9
-4.8
111 Army -1.0

5.6
6.6

80*
3-8
-5.0
112 Louisiana Tech -0.2

5.1
5.3

105*
4-8
-5.0
113 Hawaii -0.7

5.3
6.0

70*
1-11
-5.0
114 Purdue -1.6

4.6
6.2

55*
1-11
-5.4
115   West. Michigan -1.0

4.8
5.8

85*

1-11
-5.8
116 UAB
-1.4


5.8
7.2


90*

2-10

-6.1

117 UTEP  -2.3

5.1
7.4

65*
2-10
-6.3
118 Fl. Int'l FIU  -3.0

3.6
6.6

55*
1-11
-6.5
119 East. Michigan  -2.4

5.2
7.6

70*
2-10
-6.5
120 Southern Miss -1.3

4.6
5.9

100*
1-11
-6.5
121 New Mexico St. -2.3

5.4
7.7

70*

2-10

-6.5
122 Idaho -2.1

4.8
6.9

75*
1-11
-6.5
123 Massachusetts -2.3

4.3
6.6

65*
1-11
-6.5
124 Georgia State -0.9

5.4
6.3

110*
0-12
-6.6
125 Miami (Ohio) -2.7

3.7
6.4

65*
0-12
-6.9

See our 2013 Preseason Rankings Here.

Week 14 2013 College Football FBS Game Prediction RESULTS by SportPundit

Week 14 2013 College Football FBS Game Prediction RESULTS by SportPundit

What another amazing college football week it has been topped by Michigan going for 2 in final minute and losing to Ohio State by 1 while Auburn returned a game-ending field goal try for a TD to upend the threepeat dreams of Alabama. Both games had otherwise gone into unpredictable overtime play.

This week we were 43-16 in calling the winner and 34-24-1 against the spread.

Our stats for the season after Week 14 are now 617-179 (77.5%) in calling the winner and 384-316-11 (54.9%) against the spread.

Below are our College Football Predictions for Week 14, 2013 relying on YPPSYS, our Yards Per Play System and our FBS Ratings and Rankings of all 125 Teams after Week 13 of the 2013 Season.

What makes a good prognosticator? Confidence and/or Accuracy?
And how about keeping all those conference changes straight?

Caveat emptor (Buyer beware): We make this material available in good fun out of interest for the sport of college football. Please do not rely on our material to place bets or wagers of any kind. No one knows the exact outcome of a game or a season before it is played and that is what makes it so interesting. We disclaim any and all liability for the consequences of anyone relying in any way upon our postings, analysis, links or reasoning - for which we make no warranty of accuracy. May the best team win.

YPPSYS means "yards per play system", as that is our main ranking component, based primarily on stats at cfbstats.com, but we also use schedule difficulty and conference rankings as based on calculations e.g. at Massey Ratings, although our own system of schedule difficulty prevails.

At YPPSYS, we regard a difference of one rating point to be worth about 7 points on the scoreboard, a calculation, of course, that is not absolute, given home field advantages, etc.

In past weeks we have calculated the home field advantage at an average of about 3 points, but we now also sometimes use Kambour stats.

The betting lines ("odds", "point spread", or "spread") for Week 14 used here were taken from the lines at Oddsshark as of Tuesday, November 26, 2013. If odds were not yet available, these were entered initially as "??" and are added later, when available. Note that the lines can and often do change over time, but our predictions do not reflect later changes once we have posted odds here as the basis for comparing our own selections.

Tuesday, November 26, 2013

Western Michigan at Northern Illinois
The Huskies were favored over the Broncos by 35 points.
Our call: 45-7 for Northern Illinois.
Result: The Huskies were unimpressive in winning 33-14 against a 1-11 team.
We should have stuck with our own stats, which gave a spread of 31 points.
This week we are 1-0 in calling the winner and 0-1 against the spread.

Thursday, November 28, 2013
Thanksgiving Day

Texas Tech at Texas
The Longhorns were favored over the Red Raiders by 4.5 points.
Our call: 34-27 for Texas.
Result: The Longhorns romped over the Red Raiders 41-16 as Texas sacked Texas Tech freshman QB Baker Mayfield seven times.
This week we are 2-0 in calling the winner and 1-1 against the spread.

Mississippi at Mississippi State
The Rebels were favored over the Bulldogs by 3 points.
Our Call: 31-27 for Mississippi.
Result: In the Egg Bowl, the Rebels turned the ball over four times and were upset by the Bulldogs in overtime 17-10.
This week we are 2-1 in calling the winner and 1-2 against the spread.

Friday, November 29, 2013

Iowa at Nebraska
The Cornhuskers were favored over the Hawkeyes by 3 points.
Our call: 31-27 for Nebraska.
Result: The Hawkeyes topped the erring Huskers 38-17 in Lincoln, the 3rd home defeat this year, and that should be it for Pelini as Big Red head football coach. The situation at NU is much worse than most people realize. Take a look at the Composite Rankings of the FBS football teams at Massey Ratings. Prior to this game, the Cornhuskers were ranked 37th and had wins over teams ranked 38th (Michigan), 60th (Penn State), 71st (Northwestern), 79th (Illinois), 103rd (Wyoming) 107th (Purdue), 125th (Southern Miss), and FCS South Dakota State, ranked 93rd in Massey's own complete rankings of all college football teams. Except for Minnesota, which is ranked nearly even with Nebraska at 40th place and will likely be ranked higher after this week, all Husker losses are simply to teams with a better ranking: 13th (Michigan State), 20th (UCLA), 35th (Iowa). Stated frankly, Nebraska currently is an average, mediocre team and if you look at the results of recruiting, things will get worse rather than better. The Big Red is nowhere near to being competitive with top 10  teams. In his initial head coaching years, Pelini relied on the top players recruited by Callahan, a great recruiter, even if he was not a good head coach. Now there are only Pelini recruits, and he and his staff seem to have little pull on top players, who are gravitating to teams that play offenses and defenses that make later pro football careers more likely. As things stand right now, continued decay at Nebraska football is guaranteed.
This week we are 2-2 in calling the winner and 1-3 against the spread.

SMU at Houston
The Cougars were favored over the Mustangs by 9.5 points.
Our call: 33-24 for Houston.
Result: Houston easily corralled the Mustangs in a 34-0 shutout.
This week we are 3-2 in calling the winner and 1-4 against the spread.

East Carolina at Marshall
The Thundering Herd were favored over the Pirates by 3 points.
Our call: 28-24 for Marshall.
Result: Marshall won its C-USA division by thundering past the now 9-3 Pirates 59-28.
This week we are 4-2 in calling the winner and 2-4 against the spread.

Toledo at Akron
The Rockets were favored over the Zips by 8 points.
Our call: 31-21 for Toledo.
Result: Terry Bowden is beginning to show what a top coach can do, as the Zips upset an arguably more talented Toledo team 31-29.
This week we are 4-3 in calling the winner and 2-5 against the spread.

Miami of Ohio at Ball State
The Cardinals were favored over the Redhawks by 34.5 points.
Our call: 45-14 for Ball State.
Result: The Cardinals throttled the Redhawks 55-14.
This week we are 5-3 in calling the winner and 2-6 against the spread.
 Bowling Green at Buffalo
The Falcons were favored over the Bulls by 2 points.
Our call: 28-24 for Bowling Green.
Result: The Falcons won the MAC East by topping the Bulls 24-7. Bowling Green will be no easy opponent for Northern Illinois.
This week we are 6-3 in calling the winner and 3-6 against the spread.

Massachusetts at Ohio
The Bobcats were favored over the Minutemen by 16.5 points.
Our call: 38-17 for Ohio.
Result: After three straight crushing losses, the Bobcats finally won again, beating the outmanned Minutemen 51-23.
This week we are 7-3 in calling the winner and 4-6 against the spread.

Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan
The Chippewas were favored over the Eagles by 18.5 points.
Our call: 41-23 for Central Michigan.
Result: The Chippewas cruised by the Eagles 42-10.
This week we are 8-3 in calling the winner and 4-7 against the spread.

Texas State at Troy
The Trojans were favored over the Bobcats by 7 points.
Our call: 34-31 for Troy.
Result: Troy prevailed over Texas State 42-28 and became bowl-eligible.
This week we are 9-3 in calling the winner and 4-8 against the spread.

Arkansas at LSU
The Tigers were favored over the Razorbacks by 24.5 points.
Our call: 41-21 for LSU.
Result: The Tigers barely escaped with a 31-27 victory over the Razorbacks, as freshman backup QB Anthony Jennings, in the game for injured starter Zach Mettenberger, led a 99-yard comeback drive to score with 1:15 left to play.
This week we are 10-3 in calling the winner and 5-8 against the spread.

FIU (Florida International) at FAU (Flordia Atlantic)
The Owls were favored over the Golden Panthers by 28 points.
Our call: 38-13 for Florida Atlantic.
Result: The Owls won their fourth straight game and beat Florida International 21-6 to become bowl-eligible.
This week we are 11-3 in calling the winner and 6-8 against the spread.

Fresno State at San Jose State
The Bulldogs were favored over the Spartans by 7.5 points.
Our call: 38-28 for Fresno State.
Result: In surely the most interesting game of the day, the Spartans and Bulldogs combined for 12 passing TDs and 83 points in the first half, as San Jose State, becoming bowl eligible with the win and buoyed by an opening second half recovered onside kick, snuffed out Fresno State's unbeaten season and hopes of a BCS bowl 62-52.
This week we are 11-4 in calling the winner and 6-9 against the spread.

Miami of Florida at Pittsburgh
The Hurricanes were favored over the Panthers by 2.5 points.
Our call: 31-30 for Pittsburgh.
Result: The Hurricanesraced to a 31-10 halftime lead and prevailed 41-31.
This week we are 11-5 in calling the winner and 6-10 against the spread.

Washington State at Washington
The Huskies were favored over the Cougars by 14 points.
Our call: 34-27 for Washington.
Result: The Huskies reclaimed the Apple Cup by beating the Cougars 27-17.
This week we are 12-5 in calling the winner and 7-10 against the spread.
  Oregon State at Oregon
The Ducks were favored over the Beavers by 21.5 points.
Our call: 41-24 for Oregon.
Result: The Ducks scored in the last minute to win a squeaker 36-35.
This week we are 13-5 in calling the winner and 8-10 against the spread.
 South Florida at UCF (Central Florida)
The Knights were favored over the Bulls by 27 points.
Our call: 40-10 for UCF.
Result: The Knights needed a late 4th quarter TD to beat the Bulls 23-20.
This week we are 14-5 in calling the winner and 8-11 against the spread.
 
Saturday, November 30, 2013

Rutgers at Connecticut
The Scarlet Knights were favored over the Huskies by 3 points.
Our call: 31-21 for Rutgers.
Result: The 2-9 Huskies continued to amaze at season end, winning their second straight, beating Rutgers 28-17.
This week we are 14-6 in calling the winner and 8-12 against the spread.
 
Florida State at Florida
The Seminoles were favored over the Gators by 26 points.
Our call: 38-14 for Florida State.
Result: The ACC Seminoles outgained Florida 456 to 193 yards in crushing the SEC Gators 37-7, as Jameis Winston threw 3 TD passes to Kelvin Benjamin.
This week we are 15-6 in calling the winner and 8-13 against the spread.
 
Minnesota at Michigan State
The Spartans were favored over the Golden Gophers by 15 points.
Our call: 27-17 for Michigan State.
Result: The Spartans readed for their Big Ten Conference title clash with Ohio State by beating the Golden Gophers 14-3.
This week we are 16-6 in calling the winner and 9-13 against the spread.
 
Ohio State at Michigan
The Buckeyes were favored over the Wolverines by 14.5 points.
Our call: 31-21 for Ohio State.
Result: The Wolverines played a great game, outgained Ohio State 603 to 526 yards, scored with 32 seconds left, went for 2 and the win rather than the extra point for the tie and overtime, and lost 42-41 to the Buckeyes.
This week we are 17-6 in calling the winner and 10-13 against the spread.
 
Duke at North Carolina
The Tar Heels were favored over the Blue Devils by 6.5 points.
Our call: 28-24 for North Carolina.
What a great coaching job this year by David Cutcliffe, as the Blue Devils pulled off an improbable ACC Coastal Division win by beating the Tar Heels 27-25 on a 27-yard field goal by Ross Martin with 2:22 to play.
This week we are 17-7 in calling the winner and 11-13 against the spread.
 
Temple at Memphis
The Tigers were favored over the Owls by 8.5 points.
Our call: 27-24 for Memphis.
Result: The Owls pummeled the Tigers 41-21.
This week we are 17-8 in calling the winner and 12-13 against the spread.
 
Kansas State at Kansas
The Wildcats were favored over the Jayhawks by 16.5 points.
Our call: 38-21 for Kansas State.
Result: The Wildcats down the Jayhawks 31-10.
This week we are 18-8 in calling the winner and 13-13 against the spread.
 
Wake Forest at Vanderbilt
The Commodores were favored over the Demon Deacons by 14 points.
Our call: 27-17 for Vanderbilt.
Result: The Commodores needed two field goals from Carey Spear in the 4th quarter, one with 39 seconds left in the game, to beat Wake Forest 23-21.
This week we are 19-8 in calling the winner and 14-13 against the spread.
 
Maryland at North Carolina State
The Terrapins were favored over the Wolpack by 2.5 points.
Our call: 27-24 for Maryland.
Result: The Terps led 34-14 at the half in winning 41-21 over NC State, as C.J. Brown ran for 3 TDs and threw for 2 more.
This week we are 20-8 in calling the winner and 15-13 against the spread.

Southern Miss at UAB
The Blazers were favored over the Golden Eagles by 14.5 points.
Our call: 31-24 for UAB.
Result: The Golden Eagles broke their 23-game losing streak and avoided becoming only the second team in the last 30 years to post back-to-back winless seasons by unexpectedly throttling UAB 62-27.
This week we are 20-9 in calling the winner and 16-13 against the spread.

Air Force at Colorado State
The Rams were favored over the Falcons by 14.5 points.
Our call: 37-27 for Colorado State.
Result: Second-year head coach Jim McElwain basked in a 58-13 romp over the Falcons by a steadily improving Rams team that becamse bowl eligible with the win.
This week we are 21-9 in calling the winner and 16-14 against the spread.

Colorado at Utah
The Utes were favored over the Buffaloes by 17 points.
Our call: 35-21 for Utah.
Result: The Utes slipped past the Buffaloes 24-17.
This week we are 22-9 in calling the winner and 17-14 against the spread.

Wyoming at Utah State
The Aggies were favored over the Cowboys by 21 points.
Our call: 38-21 for Utah State.
Result: The Aggies beat the Cowboys 35-7, earning a MWC Mountain Division title and a spot in the conference championship game against Fresno State.
This week we are 23-9 in calling the winner and 17-15 against the spread.

South Alabama at Georgia State
The Jaguars were favored over the Panthers by 9 points.
Our call: 38-24 for South Alabama.
Result: The Jaguars downed the winless Panthers 38-17.
This week we are 24-9 in calling the winner and 18-15 against the spread.

North Texas at Tulsa
The Mean Green were favored over the Golden Hurricane by 5 points.
Our call: 31-24 for North Texas.
Result: Dan McCarney's rebuilt North Texas team forged a 42-10 win over the Golden Hurricane, as Brandin Byrd scored 3 TDs on 26 carries for 251 yards.
This week we are 25-9 in calling the winner and 19-15 against the spread.

Tulane at Rice
The Owls were favored over the Green Wave by 11 points.
Our call: 28-21 for Rice.
Result: The Owls took a 17-3 halftime lead and held on for a 17-13 victory. They will now face Marshall in the C-USA conference championship game.
This week we are 26-9 in calling the winner and 20-15 against the spread.

BYU at Nevada
The Cougars were favored over the Wolf Pack by 14.5 points.
Our call: 37-23 for BYU.
Result: The Cougars trailed 7-0 at the half, but erupted for 28 second-half points to edge the Wolf Pack 28-23.
This week we are 27-9 in calling the winner and 21-15 against the spread.

Alabama at Auburn
The Crimson Tide were favored over the Tigers by 11 points.
Our call: 38-28 for Alabama.
Result: In spite of being outgained 495 to 393 yards, in a miraculous end to a great regular season, Auburn upset the Crimson Tide 34-28 as time expired as Chris Davis returned a courageous near-miss 57-yard failed field goal attempt by Alabama for an official and highly improbable 100-yard TD (actually 109 yards). Auburn now plays Missouri in the SEC championship game.
This week we are 27-10 in calling the winner and 22-15 against the spread.

Georgia at Georgia Tech
The Bulldogs were favored over the Yellow Jackets by 3.5 points.
Our call: 35-28 for Georgia.
Result: The Bulldogs recovered from an early 20-0 deficit to down Georgia Tech 41-34 in double overtime, as injured Aaron Murray replacement Hutson Mason completed 22 of 36 passes for 299 yards, 2 TDs and 1 pick.
This week we are 28-10 in calling the winner and 23-15 against the spread.

Purdue at Indiana
The Hoosiers were favored over the Boilermakers by 20.5 points.
Our call: 45-21 for Indiana.
Result: The Hoosiers coasted home after taking a 49-9 lead in the 3rd quarter, beating the Boilermakers 56-36.
This week we are 29-10 in calling the winner and 23-16 against the spread.

Idaho at New Mexico State
The Aggies were favored over the Vandals by 4 points.
Our call: 34-31 for New Mexico State.
Result: The Aggies came back from a 13-10 halftime deficit to win 24-16, in spite of being outgained 459 to 371 yards.
This week we are 30-10 in calling the winner and 23-17 against the spread.

Boston College at Syracuse
The Eagles were favored over the Orange by 2.5 points.
Our call: 28-27 for Syracuse.
Result: The Orange became bowl-eligible by beating the Eagles 34-31 on a Terrel Hunt 8-yard TD to Josh Parris with 6 seconds to play.
This week we are 31-10 in calling the winner and 24-17 against the spread.

Virginia Tech at Virginia
The Hokies were favored over the Cavaliers by 13 points.
Our call: 27-17 for Virginia Tech.
Result: The Hokies ground out a 16-6 win over Virginia in a game that was scoreless in the second half.
This week we are 32-10 in calling the winner and 25-17 against the spread.

Penn State at Wisconsin
The Badgers were favored over the Nittany Lions by 24.5 points.
Our call: 38-17 for Wisconsin.
Result: The Nittany Lions stunned the highly favored Badgers 31-24, who turned the ball over three times.
This week we are 32-11 in calling the winner and 26-17 against the spread.

Northwestern at Illinois
The Wildcats were favored over the Illini by 3.5 points.
Our call: 34-30 for Northwestern.
Result: The Wildcats won the hard-fought contest 37-34 over the Illini.
This week we are 33-11 in calling the winner and 26-18 against the spread.

Baylor at TCU
The Bears were favored over the Horned Frogs by 12.5 points.
Our call: 38-24 for Baylor.
Result: The highly vaunted Bear offense was outgained 410 to 370 yards and Baylor was lucky to prevail against the Horned Frogs 41-38. Baylor now plays Texas and a win would give them a share of the Big 12 championship.
This week we are 34-11 in calling the winner and 26-19 against the spread.

Louisiana Tech at UTSA (Texas San Antonio)
The Roadrunners were favored over the Bulldogs by 16 points.
Our call: 38-21 for UTSA.
Result: The Roadrunners ran down the Bulldogs 30-10.
This week we are 35-11 in calling the winner and 27-19 against the spread.

UTEP (Texas El Paso) at Middle Tennessee
The Blue Raiders were favored over the Miners by 22.5 points.
Our call: 41-17 for Middle Tennessee.
Result: The Blue Raiders marched past the Miners 48-17.
This week we are 36-11 in calling the winner and 28-19 against the spread.

Arkansas State at Western Kentucky
The Hilltoppers were favored over the Red Wolves by 6.5 points.
Our call: 31-27 for Western Kentucky.
Result: The Hilltoppers beat the Red Wolves 34-31.
This week we are 37-11 in calling the winner and 29-19 against the spread.

Iowa State at West Virginia
The Mountaineers were favored over the Cyclones by 8.5 points.
Our call: 27-24 for West Virginia.
Result: The Cyclones came back from a 31-7 deficit in the first half to upend the Mountaineers 52-44 in 3 overtimes, as West Virginia gained 568 yards and Iowa State 575 yards total offense.
This week we are 37-12 in calling the winner and 30-19 against the spread.

Notre Dame at Stanford
The Cardinal were favored over the Fighting Irish by 14 points.
Our call: 31-21 for Stanford.
Result: The Cardinal prevailed over a tough Fighting Irish squad 27-20.
This week we are 38-12 in calling the winner and 31-19 against the spread.

Tennessee at Kentucky
The Volunteers were favored over the Wildcats by 4 points.
Our call: 34-27 for Tennessee.
Result: The Vols were victorious over Kentucky 27-14.
This week we are 39-12 in calling the winner and 32-19 against the spread.

Louisiana Monroe (ULM) at Louisiana Lafayette (ULL)
The Ragin' Cajuns were favored over the Warhawks by 14.5 points.
Our call: 34-24 for Louisiana Lafayette.
Result: The Warhawks upset the conference-leading Ragin' Cajuns 31-28.
This week we are 39-13 in calling the winner and 33-19 against the spread.

Clemson at South Carolina
The Gamecocks were favored over the Tigers by 5.5 points.
Our call: 31-28 for South Carolina.
Result: The Gamecocks scored 14 unanswered points in the 4th quarter to beat Clemson for the 5th straight time, 31-17.
This week we are 40-13 in calling the winner and 33-20 against the spread.

Texas A&M at Missouri
The Tigers were favored over the Aggies by 4.5 points.
Our call: 36-35 for Texas A&M. The Tigers rank 116th in pass defense.
Result: The Missouri Tigers held Johnny Manziel to only one touchdown pass and won the SEC East Division title 28-21. They will now meet the Auburn Tigers in the SEC championship game.
This week we are 40-14 in calling the winner and 33-21 against the spread.

UCLA at USC
The Trojans were favored over the Bruins by 3.5 points.
Our call: 35-31 for Southern Cal.
Result: The Bruins won with surprising ease over the Trojans 35-14.
This week we are 40-15 in calling the winner and 33-22 against the spread.

Arizona at Arizona StateThe Sun Devils were favored over the Wildcats by 13 points.
Our call: 31-21 for Arizona State.
Result: The Sun Devils capitalized on 4 Wildcat turnovers in routing Arizona 58-21. Arizona State now faces Stanford, who beat them 42-28 early in the season, in the Pac-12 championship game on December 7.
This week we are 41-15 in calling the winner and 33-23 against the spread.

New Mexico at Boise State
The Broncos were favored over the Lobos by 36 points.
Our call: 45-24 for Boise State.
Result: The Broncos topped the Lobos 45-17.
This week we are 42-15 in calling the winner and 34-23 against the spread.

San Diego State at UNLV
The Aztecs were favored over the Rebels by 3.5 points.
Our call: 28-24 for San Diego State.
Result: The Rebels beat the Aztecs 45-19 behind 5 TDs by QB Caleb Herring, 5 passing and 1 running.
This week we are 42-16 in calling the winner and 34-24 against the spread.

Army at Hawaii
The Warriors were favored over the Black Knights by 7 points.
Our call: 27-26 for Hawaii.
Result: The Warriors won their first game of the season 49-42.
This week we are 43-16 in calling the winner and 34-24-1 against the spread.


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