Wednesday, November 27, 2013

Paul Krugman Suggests The Trouble With Economics Is Economists and NOT the Underlying Economic Wisdom

Personalities and politics are the problem, not basic textbook economics.

At the New York Times, see The Trouble With Economics Is Economists.

Week 14 2013 College Football FBS Game Predictions by SportPundit

Week 14 2013 College Football FBS Game Predictions by SportPundit

Our stats for the season after Week 13 are now 574-163 (77.9%) in calling the winner and 350-292-10 (54.5%) against the spread.

Below are our College Football Predictions for Week 14, 2013 relying on YPPSYS, our Yards Per Play System and our FBS Ratings and Rankings of all 125 Teams after Week 12 of the 2013 Season.

What makes a good prognosticator? Confidence and/or Accuracy?
And how about keeping all those conference changes straight?

Caveat emptor (Buyer beware): We make this material available in good fun out of interest for the sport of college football. Please do not rely on our material to place bets or wagers of any kind. No one knows the exact outcome of a game or a season before it is played and that is what makes it so interesting. We disclaim any and all liability for the consequences of anyone relying in any way upon our postings, analysis, links or reasoning - for which we make no warranty of accuracy. May the best team win.

YPPSYS means "yards per play system", as that is our main ranking component, based primarily on stats at cfbstats.com, but we also use schedule difficulty and conference rankings as based on calculations e.g. at Massey Ratings, although our own system of schedule difficulty prevails.

At YPPSYS, we regard a difference of one rating point to be worth about 7 points on the scoreboard, a calculation, of course, that is not absolute, given home field advantages, etc.

In past weeks we have calculated the home field advantage at an average of about 3 points, but we now also sometimes use Kambour stats.

The betting lines ("odds", "point spread", or "spread") for Week 13 used here were taken from the lines at Oddsshark as of Tuesday, November 26, 2013. If odds were not yet available, these were entered initially as "??" and are added later, when available. Note that the lines can and often do change over time, but our predictions do not reflect later changes once we have posted odds here as the basis for comparing our own selections.

Tuesday, November 26, 2013

Western Michigan at Northern Illinois
The Huskies are favored over the Broncos by 35 points.
Our call: 45-7 for Northern Illinois. Our stats favor Northern Illinois by 28 plus the home field advantage, which Kambour has at about 7 points, although we generally calculate the home field advantage as nearer to 3 points on average. That would make 35 or 31 points, but last week particularly, however, many of our losing calls were games in which the winning margin was far greater than predicted, as modern offenses and coaching pressures are really letting strong teams pile up the score against weaker ones. If you like comparative scores, ponder that Northern Illinois beat Iowa 30-27 and Iowa two games later beat Western Michigan 59-3. Trying to calculate the spread in games like these is simply pot luck.

Thursday, November 28, 2013
Thanksgiving Day

Texas Tech at Texas
The Longhorns are favored over the Red Raiders by 4.5 points.
Our call: 34-27 for Texas.

Mississippi at Mississippi State
The Rebels are favored over the Bulldogs by 3 points.
Our Call: 31-27 for Mississippi.

Friday, November 29, 2013

Iowa at Nebraska
The Cornhuskers are favored over the Hawkeyes by 3 points.
Our call: 31-27 for Nebraska.

SMU at Houston
The Cougars are favored over the Mustangs by 9.5 points.
Our call: 33-24 for Houston.

East Carolina at Marshall
The Thundering Herd are favored over the Pirates by 3 points.
Our call: 28-24 for Marshall.

Toledo at Akron
The Rockets are favored over the Zips by 8 points.
Our call: 31-21 for Toledo.

Miami of Ohio at Ball State
The Cardinals are favored over the Redhawks by 34.5 points.
Our call: 45-14 for Ball State.

Bowling Green at Buffalo
The Falcons are favored over the Bulls by 2 points.
Our call: 28-24 for Bowling Green.

Massachusetts at Ohio
The Bobcats are favored over the Minutemen by 16.5 points.
Our call: 38-17 for Ohio.

Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan
The Chippewas are favored over the Eagles by 18.5 points.
Our call: 41-23 for Central Michigan.

Texas State at Troy
The Trojans are favored over the Bobcats by 7 points.
Our call: 34-31 for Troy.

Arkansas at LSU
The Tigers are favored over the Razorbacks by 24.5 points.
Our call: 41-21 for LSU.

FIU (Florida International) at FAU (Flordia Atlantic)
The Owls are favored over the Golden Panthers by 28 points.
Our call: 38-13 for Florida Atlantic.

Fresno State at San Jose State
The Bulldogs are favored over the Spartans by 7.5 points.
Our call: 38-28 for Fresno State.

Miami of Florida at Pittsburgh
The Hurricanes are favored over the Panthers by 2.5 points.
Our call: 31-30 for Pittsburgh.

Washington State at Washington
The Huskies are favored over the Cougars by 14 points.
Our call: 34-27 for Washington.

Oregon State at Oregon
The Ducks are favored over the Beavers by 21.5 points.
Our call: 41-24 for Oregon.

South Florida at UCF (Central Florida)
The Knights are favored over the Bulls by 27 points.
Our call: 40-10 for UCF.

Saturday, November 30, 2013

Rutgers at Connecticut
The Scarlet Knights are favored over the Huskies by 3 points.
Our call: 31-21 for Rutgers.

Florida State at Florida
The Seminoles are favored over the Gators by 26 points.
Our call: 38-14 for Florida State.

Minnesota at Michigan State
The Spartans are favored over the Golden Gophers by 15 points.
Our call: 27-17 for Michigan State.

Ohio State at Michigan
The Buckeyes are favored over the Wolverines by 14.5 points.
Our call: 31-21 for Ohio State.

Duke at North Carolina
The Tar Heels are favored over the Blue Devils by 6.5 points.
Our call: 28-24 for North Carolina.

Temple at Memphis
The Tigers are favored over the Owls by 8.5 points.
Our call: 27-24 for Memphis.

Kansas State at Kansas
The Wildcats are favored over the Jayhawks by 16.5 points.
Our call: 38-21 for Kansas State.

Wake Forest at Vanderbilt
The Commodores are favored over the Demon Deacons by 14 points.
Our call: 27-17 for Vanderbilt.

Maryland at North Carolina State
The Terrapins are favored over the Wolpack by 2.5 points.
Our call: 27-24 for Maryland.

Southern Miss at UAB
The Blazers are favored over the Golden Eagles by 14.5 points.
Our call: 31-24 for UAB.

Air Force at Colorado State
The Rams are favored over the Falcons by 14.5 points.
Our call: 37-27 for Colorado State.

Colorado at Utah
The Utes are favored over the Buffaloes by 17 points.
Our call: 35-21 for Utah.

Wyoming at Utah State
The Aggies are favored over the Cowboys by 21 points.
Our call: 38-21 for Utah State.

South Alabama at Georgia State
The Jaguars are favored over the Panthers by 9 points.
Our call: 38-24 for South Alabama.

North Texas at Tulsa
The Mean Green are favored over the Golden Hurricane by 5 points.
Our call: 31-24 for North Texas.

Tulane at Rice
The Owls are favored over the Green Wave by 11 points.
Our call: 28-21 for Rice.

BYU at Nevada
The Cougars are favored over the Wolf Pack by 14.5 points.
Our call: 37-23 for BYU.

Alabama at Auburn
The Crimson Tide are favored over the Tigers by 11 points.
Our call: 38-28 for Alabama.

Georgia at Georgia Tech
The Bulldogs are favored over the Yellow Jackets by 3.5 points.
Our call: 35-28 for Georgia.

Purdue at Indiana
The Hoosiers are favored over the Boilermakers by 20.5 points.
Our call: 45-21 for Indiana.

Idaho at New Mexico State
The Aggies are favored over the Vandals by 4 points.
Our call: 34-31 for New Mexico State.

Boston College at Syracuse
The Eagles are favored over the Orange by 2.5 points.
Our call: 28-27 for Syracuse.

Virginia Tech at Virginia
The Hokies are favored over the Cavaliers by 13 points.
Our call: 27-17 for Virginia Tech.

Penn State at Wisconsin
The Badgers are favored over the Nittany Lions by 24.5 points.
Our call: 38-17 for Wisconsin.

Northwestern at Illinois
The Wildcats are favored over the Illini by 3.5 points.
Our call: 34-30 for Northwestern.

Baylor at TCU
The Bears are favored over the Horned Frogs by 12.5 points.
Our call: 38-24 for Baylor.

Louisiana Tech at UTSA (Texas San Antonio)
The Roadrunners are favored over the Bulldogs by 16 points.
Our call: 38-21 for UTSA.

UTEP (Texas El Paso) at Middle Tennessee
The Blue Raiders are favored over the Miners by 22.5 points.
Our call: 41-17 for Middle Tennessee.

Arkansas State at Western Kentucky
The Hilltoppers are favored over the Red Wolves by 6.5 points.
Our call: 31-27 for Western Kentucky.

Iowa State at West Virginia
The Mountaineers are favored over the Cyclones by 8.5 points.
Our call: 27-24 for West Virginia.

Notre Dame at Stanford
The Cardinal are favored over the Fighting Irish by 14 points.
Our call: 31-21 for Stanford.

Tennessee at Kentucky
The Volunteers are favored over the Wildcats by 4 points.
Our call: 34-27 for Tennessee.

Louisiana Monroe (ULM) at Louisiana Lafayette (ULL)
The Ragin' Cajuns are favored over the Warhawks by 14.5 points.
Our call: 34-24 for Louisiana Lafayette.

Clemson at South Carolina
The Gamecocks are favored over the Tigers by 5.5 points.
Our call: 31-28 for South Carolina.

Texas A&M at Missouri
The Tigers are favored over the Aggies by 4.5 points.
Our call: 36-35 for Texas A&M. The Tigers rank 116th in pass defense.

UCLA at USC
The Trojans are favored over the Bruins by 3.5 points.
Our call: 35-31 for Southern Cal.

Arizona at Arizona StateThe Sun Devils are favored over the Wildcats by 13 points.
Our call: 31-21 for Arizona State.

New Mexico at Boise State
The Broncos are favored over the Lobos by 36 points.
Our call: 45-24 for Boise State.

San Diego State at UNLV
The Aztecs are favored over the Rebels by 3.5 points.
Our call: 28-24 for San Diego State.

Army at Hawaii
The Warriors are favored over the Black Knights by 7 points.
Our call: 27-26 for Hawaii.


2013 FBS College Football Rankings after WEEK 13 of Play, by SportPundit

Below are the 2013 FBS College Football Rankings after WEEK 13 of play, by SportPundit.

Please read the indented material unless you are already familiar with it.
Caveat emptor (Buyer beware): We make this material available in good fun out of interest for the sport of college football. Please do not rely on our material to place bets or wagers of any kind. No one knows the exact outcome of a game or a season before it is played and that is what makes it so interesting. We disclaim any and all liability for the consequences of anyone relying in any way upon our postings, analysis, links or reasoning - for which we make no warranty of accuracy. May the best team win.

These ratings and rankings are based in part on our primary measure of "net average yards per play advantage" (NAYPPA), a specific predictive calculation which we were the first to implement, minus a calculation based on the schedule difficulty and a penalty for losses. Gauging schedule difficulty is always an approximation!

Yards per play stats are taken from cfbstats.com. In recent years, an average FBS team gained ca. 5.4 yards per play on offense and allowed ca. 5.4 yards per play on defense, a stat that holds fairly constant from year to year, but slightly affected by FCS scheduling.
 
Massey Ratings schedule difficulty ratings are used in part, but we have our own -- objective and subjective -- judgments and adjustments to handle schedule difficulty.
As a general rule of thumb for our rankings and ratings -- taking the NAYPPA, we subtract .01 times 2x the schedule difficulty up to 50, and .01 times 3x the schedule difficulty for 55 and up. We subtract .2 for every loss. The system is a bit unwieldy for calculation, but we have to account for strong teams beating up on weak ones.

As a measuring stick, note that the best (undefeated) college teams of all time had a NAYPPA of not greater than 3.0 for an entire season. Schedules have become easier recently, e.g. through FCS scheduling, and Boise State had a 3.5 "season NAYPPA" three years ago but lost a game and played an easier schedule than top teams. According to the yards-per-play standard, the 2012-2013 Alabama team would have been ranked among the best teams ever, had they not lost to Texas A&M. But they did lose.

See Best Teams Ever: (top three as examples below)
We repeat that in past recent years, an average FBS team gained ca. 5.4 yards per play on offense and allowed ca. 5.4 yards per play on defense, a statistic that has held fairly constant.

THE 2013 SportPundit & YPPSYS TEAM RANKINGS AND RATINGS after WEEK 13


Team
Rank
AFTER
Week
- 13 -
2013
by 
Sport
Pundit
AFTER
Week
 - 13 -
2013

* =
adjustment

NAYPPA
net average yards per play advantage offense over defense based on stats from cfbstats.com
(our calculation) 


yards
per
play offense

yards
per
play defense


Schedule difficulty
*plus or minus  subjective adjustments*
 (calculation based in part on Massey Ratings AND also a lot on our own past ratings and rankings)


W-L
(won
-loss)
record
2013

YPPSYS
Team
Rating NAYPPA
minus .01 x
2x schedule difficulty up to 50 minus 3x schedule difficulty thereafter
minus .2 for every loss.

Alabama
2.4

7.0
4.6

50*
10-0
+1.4
Florida State
3.9

7.9
4.0

85*
11-0
+1.4
3 Ohio State 2.5

7.2
4.7

85*
11-0
+0.1
4Stanford 1.2

6.0
4.8

40*
8-2
+0.0
5 Oregon 3.1

7.6
4.5

90*
9-2
+0.0

6 Missouri 1.6

6.7
5.1

55*
10-1
+0.0
7 Wisconsin
2.8


7.1
4.3


80*

9-2

+0.0

8 LSU 2.0

7.2
5.2

55*
8-3
-0.2
9 Oklahoma St. 1.2

5.9
4.7

50*
10-1
-0.2
10 Baylor
3.6


8.2
4.6


120*

9-1

-0.2

11 Auburn 1.3

7.0
5.7

55*
10-1
-0.4
12 Clemson 1.2

6.3
5.1

55*
10-1
-0.5
13 Texas A&M 1.3

7.5
6.2

55*

8-3

-0.6 

14 Mississippi 0.8

6.3
5.5

45*
7-4
-0.7
15 Michigan State 1.5

5.3
3.8

70*
10-1
-0.8
16 Georgia 1.5

6.9
5.4

55*
7-4
-0.8
17 South Carolina
1.2


6.6
5.4

55*
9-2
-0.8
18 UCF 1.4

6.7
5.3

70*
9-1
-0.9
19 Louisville 2.6

6.7
4.1

110*
10-1
-0.9
20 Arizona State
0.7


5.9
5.2


55*
9-2
-1.0
21 USC 1.1

6.1
5.0

55*
9-3
-1.0
22 UCLA 0.9

6.1
5.2

55*
8-3
-1.2
23 Washington 1.5

6.6
5.1

70*
7-4
-1.4
24 BYU 0.9

5.7
4.8

55*
7-4
-1.5
25 Texas 0.2

5.6
5.4

55*
7-3
-1.5
26 Oklahoma0.8

5.9
5.1

65*
9-2
-1.5
27 Notre Dame 1.2

6.3
5.1

70*
8-3
-1.5
28 Kansas State 1.1

6.4
5.3

60*
6-5
-1.7
29 Minnesota -0.2

5.4
5.6

50*
8-3
-1.8
30 Nebraska 0.5

5.8
5.3

55*
8-3
-1.8
31 North. Illinois 1.8

7.1
5.3

120*
12-0
-1.8
32 Fresno State 1.2

6.6
5.4

100*
10-0
-1.8
33 Iowa
0.8


5.5
4.7

60*
7-4
-1.8
34 Michigan 0.4

5.3
4.9

55*
7-4
-1.8
35 Vanderbilt 0.4

5.5
5.1

55*
7-4
-1.8
36 Virginia Tech 0.8

5.1
4.3

60*
7-4
-1.8
37 Oregon State 0.1

6.1
6.0

50*
6-5
-1.9
38 Mississippi St.
0.2


6.0
5.8


50*

5-6

-2.0

39 Washington St. -0.2

5.7
5.9

40*
6-5
-2.0
40 Arizona 0.5

5.7
5.2

55*
7-4

-2.0
41 Boise State 0.8


5.9
5.1

65*
7-4
-2.0
42 Utah State
1.1


5.7
4.6


80*

7-4

-2.1

43 Indiana -0.2

6.5
6.7

25*
4-7
-2.1
44 Bowling Green 1.7

6.6
4.9

110*
8-3
-2.2
45 East Carolina 1.2

5.9
4.7

100*
9-2
-2.2
46 Cincinnati 1.7

6.4
4.7

115*
9-2
-2.2
47 Houston 0.4

5.8
5.4

65*
7-4
-2.2
48 Penn State 0.3

5.6
5.3

55*
6-5
-2.3
49 Tennessee -0.9

5.2
6.1

0*
4-7
-2.3
50 Toledo 0.6

6.5
5.9

75*
7-4
-2.3
51 Utah 0.1

5.6
5.5

50*
4-7
-2.3
52 Texas Tech 0.6

5.9
5.3

70*
7-4
-2.3
53 Georgia Tech 0.8

6.2
5.4

75*
7-4
-2.3

54 North Carolina 0.7

6.0
5.3

65*
6-5
-2.3
55 TCU 0.1

5.0
4.9

50*
4-7
-2.3
56 Florida-0.2

4.9
5.1

50*
4-6
-2.4
57 Duke 0.6

5.9
5.3

85*
9-2
-2.4
58 Miami (Florida) 1.5

7.0
5.5

110*
8-3
-2.4
59 Boston College 0.2

6.1
5.9

60*
7-4
-2.4
60 San Diego St. 0.5

5.7
5.2

70*
7-4
-2.4
61 Navy 0.1

5.9
5.8

60*
7-4
-2.5
62 Marshall 2.0

6.6
4.6

130*
8-3
-2.5
63 Arkansas -0.5

5.5
6.0

25*
3-8
-2.6
64 Northwestern 0.0

5.3
5.3

55*
4-7
-2.6
65 Ball State 0.7

6.5
5.8

100*
9-2
-2.7
66 Pittsburgh -0.3

5.2
5.5

55*
6-5
-2.8
67 Buffalo 0.2

5.6
5.4

80*
8-3
-2.8
68 Syracuse -0.2

5.1
5.3

55*
5-6
-2.9
69 Iowa State -1.2

4.7
5.9

0*
2-9
-3.0
70 Wake Forest -0.6

4.4
5.0

50*
4-7
-3.0
71 Illinois -0.9

5.9
6.8

35*
4-7
-3.0
72 Maryland 0.7

5.8
5.1

90*
6-5
-3.0
73  Rutgers -0.5

5.4
5.9

55*
5-5
-3.0
74 West Virginia -0.6

5.3
5.9

50*
4-7
-3.0
75 Louis.-Lafayette 0.8

6.5
5.7

115*
8-2
-3.0
76 Rice 0.2

5.6
5.4

85*
8-3
-3.0
77 SMU 0.1

5.8
5.7

70*
5-5
-3.0
78 UTSA 0.4

5.9
5.5

80*
6-5
-3.0
79 North Texas 0.0

5.5
5.5

80*
7-3
-3.0
80 Mid. Tennessee 0.1

5.4
5.3

85*
7-4
-3.2
81  Florida Atlantic  0.1

5.2
5.1

70*
5-6
-3.2
82 UNLV -0.4

5.5
5.9

70*
6-5
-3.5
83 Memphis 0.0

4.8
4.8

70*
3-7
-3.5
84 Tulane -0.4

4.6
5.0

80*
7-4
-3.6
85 Virginia -1.2

4.5
5.7

30*
2-9
-3.6
86 West. Kentucky 0.8

6.3
5.5

120*
7-4
-3.6
87 San Jose St. 0.3

6.2
5.9

90*
5-6
-3.6

88 Colorado -0.8

5.4
6.2

55*
4-7
-3.7
89 Colorado State 0.3

6.2
5.9

95*
6-6
-3.7
90 Kentucky -1.0

5.3
6.3

50*
2-9
-3.8
91 Arkansas State -0.1

5.8
5.9

90*
7-4
-3.8
92 Ohio -0.4

5.4
5.8

80*

6-5

-3.8

93 Louis.-Monroe 
-0.9


4.9
5.8


65*

5-6

-3.9
94 Troy -0.8

5.9
6.7

65*
5-6
-3.9
95 Texas State -0.3

5.0
5.3

85*
6-5
-3.9
96 South Alabama 0.1

5.9
5.8

100*
4-6
-3.9
97 N.C. State -0.6

5.2
5.8

60*
3-8
-4.0
98 Nevada -1.7

5.4
7.1

45*
4-7
-4.0
99 Wyoming 0.2

6.3
6.1

90*
5-6
-4.1
100 California -1.9

5.2
7.1

0*
1-11
-4.1
101 Tulsa -0.6

4.8
5.4

65*
3-8
-4.2
102 Akron -0.7

4.9
5.6

70*
4-7
-4.2
103  Cent. Michigan  -0.6

5.3
5.9

80*
5-6
-4.2
104 Kent State -0.5

5.6
6.1


70*
4-8
-4.2
105 New Mexico -0.9

6.6
7.5

70*
3-8
-4.6
106 Air Force -0.8

5.5
6.3

70*
2-9
-4.6
107  Kansas -1.4

4.4
5.8

55*
3-8
-4.6
108 Army -0.9

5.7
6.6

75*
3-7
-4.6
109 South Florida -1.1

4.4
5.5

65*
2-8
-4.6
110 Louisiana Tech 0.0

5.2
5.2

115*
4-7
-4.9
111 Connecticut -1.4

4.3
5.7

60*
1-9
-5.0
112 Temple -1.0

5.6
6.6

65*
1-10
-5.0

113 Hawaii -0.9

5.1
6.0

65*
0-11
-5.0
114 Purdue -1.9

4.2
6.1

55*
1-10
-5.4
115 UAB
-1.5


5.8
7.3


80*

2-9

-5.7

116 UTEP  -2.2

5.1
7.3

65*
2-9
-5.8
117   West. Michigan -1.0

4.8
5.8

85*

1-11
-5.8
118 Fl. Int'l FIU  -2.8

3.7
6.5

55*
1-10
-6.3
119 East. Michigan  -2.4

5.2
7.6

70*
2-9
-6.3
120 Southern Miss -1.4

4.4
5.8

90*
0-11
-6.3
121 Idaho -2.3

4.7
7.0

65*
1-10
-6.3
122 Massachusetts -2.2

4.3
6.5

65*
1-10
-6.3
123 New Mexico St. -2.4

5.4
7.8

75*

1-10

-6.5
124 Georgia State -1.0

5.3
6.3

110*
0-11
-6.5
125 Miami (Ohio) -2.4

3.7
6.1

70*
0-11
-6.7

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The ISandIS Network

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