Sunday, November 17, 2013

Week 13 2013 College Football FBS Game Predictions by SportPundit

Week 13 2013 College Football FBS Game Predictions by SportPundit

Depending on the conference of your interest, there are some interesting matchups on tap this week involving championship contenders. Take a look. 

Our stats for the season after Week 12 are 531-147 (78.3%) in calling the winner and 319-264-10 (54.7%) against the spread.

Below are our College Football Predictions for Week 13, 2013 relying on YPPSYS, our Yards Per Play System and our FBS Ratings and Rankings of all 125 Teams after Week 12 of the 2013 Season.

What makes a good prognosticator? Confidence and/or Accuracy?
And how about keeping all those conference changes straight?

Caveat emptor (Buyer beware): We make this material available in good fun out of interest for the sport of college football. Please do not rely on our material to place bets or wagers of any kind. No one knows the exact outcome of a game or a season before it is played and that is what makes it so interesting. We disclaim any and all liability for the consequences of anyone relying in any way upon our postings, analysis, links or reasoning - for which we make no warranty of accuracy. May the best team win.

YPPSYS means "yards per play system", as that is our main ranking component, based primarily on stats at cfbstats.com, but we also use schedule difficulty and conference rankings as based on calculations e.g. at Massey Ratings, although our own system of schedule difficulty prevails.

At YPPSYS, we regard a difference of one rating point to be worth about 7 points on the scoreboard, a calculation, of course, that is not absolute, given home field advantages, etc.

In past weeks we have calculated the home field advantage at an average of about 3 points, but we now also sometimes use Kambour stats.

The betting lines ("odds", "point spread", or "spread") for Week 13 used here were taken from the opening lines at Oddsshark as of Sunday, November 17, 2013. If odds were not yet available, these were entered initially as "??" and are added later, when available. Note that the lines can and often do change over time, but our predictions do not reflect later changes once we have posted odds here as the basis for comparing our own selections.

Tuesday, November 19, 2013

Buffalo at Miami of Ohio
The Bulls are favored over the Redhawks by 24 points.
Our call: 30-3 for Buffalo. If we use our own stats and a home field advantage of 3 points, we also get 24 points, but Kambour has only about 1/2 point home field advantage for the Redhawks. The Bulls will be looking to recover from their loss to Toledo.

Kent State at Ohio
The Bobcats are favored over the Golden Flashes by 5.5 points.
Our call: 34-24 for Ohio. The Bocats are licking their wounds after a thumping by Bowling Green.

Wednesday, November 20, 2013

Northern Illinois at Toledo
The Huskies are favored over the Rockets by 3 points.
Our call: 38-34 for Northern Illinois. The Huskies are looking to stay undefeated and break into the BCS bowls.

Thursday, November 21, 2013

Rice at UAB
The Owls are favored over the Blazers by 14 points.
Our call: 38-21 for Rice. The Owls look to win their 8th game this season.

Rutgers at UCF
The Knights are favored over the Scarlet Knights by 14.5 points.
Our call: 41-24 for Central Florida. UCF had a bad scare against Temple last week and Rutgers lost big to Cincinnati.

UNLV at Air Force
The game between the Rebels and Falcons is seen as even.
Our call: 31-30 for Air Force. Our own stats combined with the Kambour home field advantage of 4 for Air Force also see this game as even. We go with the Falcons whose strong running game meets a weak rushing defense.

Friday, November 22, 2013

Navy at San Jose State
The Spartans are favored over the Midshipmen by 3 points.
Our call: 34-30 for Navy. The Spartans had a bad loss to Nevada last week.

Saturday, November 23, 2013

Oregon at Arizona
The Ducks are favored over the Wildcats by 17.5 points.
Our call: 41-20 for Oregon. The Wildcats have lost their last two at home.

California at Stanford
The Cardinal are favored over the Golden Bears by 28.5 points.
Our call: 38-7 for Stanford. This is the 105th installment of the Battle for the Axe.

Arizona State at UCLA
The Sun Devils are favored over the Bruins by 2 points.
Our call: 31-28 for UCLA. The Bruins home field is worth many points.

USC at Colorado
The Trojans are favored over the Buffaloes by 21.5 points.
Our call: 41-21 for Southern Cal. Colorado is improving and has the home field elevation advantage. USC is coming off a big win over Stanford.

Michigan State at Northwestern
The Spartans are favored over the Wildcats by 7 points.
Our call: 24-14 for Michigan State.

Wisconsin at Minnesota
The Badgers are favored over the Golden Gophers by 14.5 points.
Our call: 34-24 for Wisconsin. Badgers can only be beaten by a team with a good rushing defense.

Indiana at Ohio State
The Buckeyes are favored over the Hoosiers by 31.5 points.
Our call: 48-21 for Ohio State.

Nebraska at Penn State
The Nittany Lions are favored over the Huskers by 2.5 points.
Our call: 24-23 for Nebraska. As a Husker alum we go for the win, but have our doubts after the fumble-fingers performance against Michigan State.

Memphis at Louisville
The Cardinals are favored over the Tigers by 22.5 points.
Our call: 38-14 for Louisville. Tigers are improving.

Old Dominion at North Carolina
The Tar Heels are favored over the Monarchs by 17 points.
Our call: 48-27 for North Carolina. Big win last week over Pittsburgh, awaiting their final regular season game against Duke.

Duke at Wake Forest
The Blue Devils are favored over the Demon Deacons by 5.5 points.
Our call: 27-20 for Duke. The Blue Devils have won six in a row.

Citadel at Clemson
The Tigers are favored over the Bulldogs by 40.5 points.
Our call: 45-7 for Clemson. FBS vs. FCS often tough to call.

Cincinnati at Houston
The Cougars are favored over the Bearcats by 2.5 points.
Our call: 27-24 for Houston.The Cougars have lost two in a row on the road, to UCF and Louisville. The game venue has been moved from Rice Stadium to the BBVA Compass Stadium in Houston, 11 a.m.

Michigan at Iowa
The Hawkeyes are favored over the Wolverines by 3.5 points.
Our call: 24-23 for Michigan. We have a Wolverine alum in the family.

Oklahoma at Kansas State
The Wildcats are favored over the Sooners by 3 points.
Our call: 31-27 for Kansas State. Manhattan, Kansas is a tough venue.

Virginia at Miami of Florida
The Hurricanes are favored over the Cavaliers by 19.5 points.
Our call: 35-21 for Miami of Florida. Virginia is sometimes good against the Hurricanes.

Illinois at Purdue
The Illini are favored over the Boilermakers by 6.5 points.
Our call: 37-20 for Illinois. Illini came back, but short, against the Buckeyes.

Mississippi State at Arkansas
The Bulldogs are favored over the Razorbacks by 3 points.
Our call: 34-27 for Mississippi State. Bulldogs put up a fight against Alabama.

East Carolina at North Carolina State
The Pirates are favored over the Wolfpack by 6 points.
Our call: 28-21 for East Carolina. Pirates have won their last four.

Pittsburgh at Syracuse
The Panthers are favored over the Orange by 1.5 points.
Our call: 27-24 for Syracuse. We have an Orange alum in the family.

Massachusetts at Central Michigan
The Chippewas are favored over the Minutemen by 8.5 points.
Our call: 34-20 for Central Michigan.

Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan
The Falcons are favored over the Eagles by 24 points.
Our call: 48-21 for Bowling Green.

Coastal Carolina at South Carolina
The Gamecocks are favored over the Chanticleers by 34 points.
Our call: 45-17 for South Carolina.

Alabama A&M at Georgia Tech
The Yellow Jackets are favored over the Bulldogs by 51.5 points.
Our call: 49-7 for Georgia Tech.

Georgia Southern at Florida
The Gators are favored over the Eagles by 27.5 points.
Our call: 35-7 for Florida.

Chattanooga at Alabama
The Crimson Tide are favored over the Mocs by 48.5 points.
Our call: 45-7 for Alabama.

Hawaii at Wyoming
The Cowboys are favored over the Warriors by 6.5 points.
Our call: 34-27 for Wyoming.

Georgia State at Arkansas State
The Red Wolves are favored over the Panthers by 23 points.
Our call: 38-21 for Arkansas State.

New Mexico State at Florida Atlantic
The Owls are favored over the Aggies by 21 points.
Our call: 41-24 for Florida Atlantic.

Idaho at Florida State
The Seminoles are favored over the Vandals by 56 points.
Our call: 63-3 for Florida State. Any time the spread gets over 42, we worry.

BYU at Notre Dame
The Fighting Irish are favored over the Cougars by 1 point.
Our call: 27-24 for Notre Dame. BYU seems to struggle with good defenses.

Texas A&M at LSU
The Tigers are favored over the Aggies by 4 points.
Our call: 44-41 for LSU. We rate these teams even, so we pick the home team.

Boston College at Maryland
The game between the Terrapins and Eagles is seen as even.
Our call: 28-27 for Boston College. We have been fans of the Eagles ever since Hail Flutie.

UTSA at North Texas
The Mean Green are favored over the Roadrunners by 7 points.
Our call: 35-21 for North Texas. Dan McCarney program on the upswing.

Utah at Washington State
The Cougars are favored over the Utes by 1 point.
Our call: 27-24 for Washington State. The Utah pass defense is vulnerable.

Colorado State at Utah State
The Aggies are favored over the Rams by 6 points.
Our call: 37-23 for Utah State. Hard to call by our stats since the Rams appear to be improving. It could be much closer, but who knows.

Middle Tennessee at Southern Miss
The Blue Raiders are favored over the Golden Eagles by 20.5 points.
Our call: 38-14 for Middle Tennessee. Southern Miss has lost 22 in a row.

UTEP at Tulane
The Green Wave are favored over the Miners by 15.5 points.
Our call: 34-17 for Tulane. Tulane has gotten stronger.

New Mexico at Fresno State
The Bulldogs are favored over the Lobos by 31 points.
Our call: 45-24 for Fresno State. The Bulldogs seem very likely to go unbeaten in the regular season, but what if Northern Illinois also goes unbeaten, although the Huskies have a harder road ahead of them?

Marshall at FIU
The Thundering Herd are favored over the Golden Panthers by 33 points.
Our call: 34-13 for Marshall.

Louisiana Monroe (ULM, UL Monroe) at South Alabama
The Jaguars are favored over the Warhawks by 3 points.
Our call: 27-26 for Louisiana Monroe.

SMU at South Florida
The Mustangs are favored over the Bulls by 5.5 points.
Our call: 27-24 for SMU. Both teams have disappointed this season.

Kentucky at Georgia
The Bulldogs are favored over the Wildcats by 26 points.
Our call: 41-17 for Georgia. Georgia beat North Texas 45-21 at home.

Connecticut at Temple
The Owls are favored over the Huskies by 9 points.
Our call: 34-23 for Temple. UConn seems a shadow of its former self while the resurgent Owls nearly knocked off UCF last week.

Western Kentucky at Texas State
The Hilltoppers are favored over the Bobcats by 3.5 points.
Our call: 31-27 for Western Kentucky.

Tulsa at Louisiana Tech
The Golden Hurricane are favored over the Bulldogs by 3.5 points.
Our call: 27-20 for Tulsa.

Vanderbilt at Tennessee
The Volunteers are favored over the Commodores by 2.5 points.
Our call: 27-26 for Tennessee. We have relatives in Rocky Top.

Missouri at Ole Miss
The Tigers are favored over the Rebels by 2 points.
Our call: 31-28 for Missouri. Crunch time for the Tigers.

Kansas at Iowa State
The Cyclones are favored over the Jayhawks by 5 points.
Our call: 24-23 for Iowa State. Kansas had great win last week.

Baylor at Oklahoma State
The Bears are favored over the Cowboys by 13 points.
Our call: 41-24 for Baylor. Are the Bears as good as their stats?

Boise State at San Diego State
The Broncos are favored over the Aztecs by 6 points.
Our call: 31-24 for Boise State. The Broncos have been improving.

Washington at Oregon State
The ?? are favored over the ?? by ?? points.
Our call: 34-31 for Oregon State. The Beavers can be tough to beat at home.

2013 FBS College Football Rankings after WEEK 12 of play, by SportPundit

Below are the 2013 FBS College Football Rankings after WEEK 12 of play, by SportPundit.

Please read the indented material unless you are already familiar with it.
Caveat emptor (Buyer beware): We make this material available in good fun out of interest for the sport of college football. Please do not rely on our material to place bets or wagers of any kind. No one knows the exact outcome of a game or a season before it is played and that is what makes it so interesting. We disclaim any and all liability for the consequences of anyone relying in any way upon our postings, analysis, links or reasoning - for which we make no warranty of accuracy. May the best team win.

These ratings and rankings are based in part on our primary measure of "net average yards per play advantage" (NAYPPA), a specific predictive calculation which we were the first to implement, minus a calculation based on the schedule difficulty and a penalty for losses. Gauging schedule difficulty is always an approximation!

Yards per play stats are taken from cfbstats.com. In recent years, an average FBS team gained ca. 5.4 yards per play on offense and allowed ca. 5.4 yards per play on defense, a stat that holds fairly constant from year to year, but slightly affected by FCS scheduling.
 
Massey Ratings schedule difficulty ratings are used in part, but we have our own -- objective and subjective -- judgments and adjustments to handle schedule difficulty.
As a general rule of thumb for our rankings and ratings -- taking the NAYPPA, we subtract .01 times 2x the schedule difficulty up to 50, and .01 times 3x the schedule difficulty for 55 and up. We subtract .2 for every loss. The system is a bit unwieldy for calculation, but we have to account for strong teams beating up on weak ones.

As a measuring stick, note that the best (undefeated) college teams of all time had a NAYPPA of not greater than 3.0 for an entire season. Schedules have become easier recently, e.g. through FCS scheduling, and Boise State had a 3.5 "season NAYPPA" three years ago but lost a game and played an easier schedule than top teams. According to the yards-per-play standard, the 2012-2013 Alabama team would have been ranked among the best teams ever, had they not lost to Texas A&M. But they did lose.

See Best Teams Ever: (top three as examples below)
We repeat that in past recent years, an average FBS team gained ca. 5.4 yards per play on offense and allowed ca. 5.4 yards per play on defense, a statistic that has held fairly constant.

THE 2013 SportPundit & YPPSYS TEAM RANKINGS AND RATINGS after WEEK 11


Team
Rank
AFTER
Week
- 12 -
2013
by 
Sport
Pundit
AFTER
Week
 - 12 -
2013

* =
adjustment

NAYPPA
net average yards per play advantage offense over defense based on stats from cfbstats.com
(our calculation) 


yards
per
play offense

yards
per
play defense


Schedule difficulty
*plus or minus  subjective adjustments*
 (calculation based in part on Massey Ratings AND also a lot on our own past ratings and rankings)


W-L
(won
-loss)
record
2013

YPPSYS
Team
Rating NAYPPA
minus .01 x
2x schedule difficulty up to 50 minus 3x schedule difficulty thereafter
minus .2 for every loss.

Florida State
3.9

7.9
4.0

75*
10-0
+1.7
2 Baylor
4.3


8.5
4.2


90*

9-0

+1.6

Alabama
2.2

6.9
4.7

50*
10-0
+1.2
4 Oregon 3.4

7.8
4.4

70*
9-1
+1.1

5 Ohio State 2.4

7.2
4.8

55*
10-0
+1.0
6Stanford 1.2

6.0
4.8

40*
8-2
+0.0
7 Missouri 1.7

6.8
5.1

55*
9-1
+0.0
8 Wisconsin
3.1


7.4
4.3


90*

8-2

+0.0

9 Clemson 0.9

6.2
5.3

50*
9-1
-0.3
10 LSU 2.0

7.2
5.2

60*
7-3
-0.4
11 Auburn 1.3

7.0
5.7

55*
10-1
-0.4
12 Texas A&M 1.5

7.6
6.1

55*

8-2

-0.4 

13 Georgia 1.4

6.8
5.4

50*
6-4
-0.4
14 South Carolina
0.9


6.3
5.4

50*
8-2
-0.5
15 Arizona State
0.8


5.9
5.1


45*
8-2
-0.5
16 USC 1.1

6.1
5.0

50*
8-3
-0.5
17 Mississippi 1.0

6.4
5.4

50*
7-3
-0.6
18 Michigan State 1.3

5.1
3.8

60*
9-1
-0.7
19 UCF 1.3

6.8
5.5

65*
8-1
-0.9
20 Louisville 2.9

7.0
4.1

120*
9-1
-0.9
21 UCLA 1.0

6.1
5.1

65*
8-2
-1.0
22 Oklahoma St. 1.0

5.7
4.7

65*
9-1
-1.1
23 Washington 1.4

6.4
5.0

70*
6-4
-1.5
24 BYU 1.1

5.8
4.7

65*
7-3
-1.5
25 Oklahoma0.9

5.9
5.0

65*
8-2
-1.5
26 Vanderbilt 0.3

5.6
5.3

50*
6-4
-1.5
27 Florida0.0

4.9
4.9

30*
4-6
-1.5
28 Texas 0.2

5.6
5.4

55*
7-3
-1.5
29 Kansas State 1.1

6.3
5.2

65*
6-4
-1.6
30 North. Illinois 1.6

7.1
5.5

110*
10-0
-1.7
31 Minnesota -0.2

5.6
5.8

55*
8-2
-1.7
32 Nebraska 0.6

5.9
5.3

65*
7-3
-1.8
33 Michigan 0.6

5.5
4.9

65*
7-3
-1.8
34 Notre Dame 1.2

6.3
5.1

80*
7-3
-1.8
35 Houston 0.7

6.0
5.3

65*
7-3
-1.8
36 Oregon State 0.5

6.2
5.7

55*
6-4
-1.8
37 Virginia Tech 0.8

5.1
4.3

60*
7-4
-1.8
38 Mississippi St.
0.2


6.0
5.8


45*

4-6

-1.9

39 Iowa
0.6


5.4
4.8

60*
6-4
-2.0
40 Fresno State 0.8

6.2
5.4

95*
9-0
-2.0
41 Washington St. -0.4

5.5
5.9

30*
5-5
-2.0
42 Arizona 0.6

5.7
5.1

60*
6-4

-2.0
43 Boise State 0.8


6.0
5.2

75*
7-3
-2.0
44 Utah 0.2

5.5
5.3

50*
4-6
-2.0
45 Utah State
1.2


6.0
4.8


80*

6-4

-2.0

46 Indiana 0.2

6.7
6.5

50*
4-6
-2.0
47 Bowling Green 1.3

6.4
5.1

90*
7-3
-2.0
48 East Carolina 1.3

5.9
4.6

100*
8-2
-2.1
49 Penn State 0.2

5.6
5.4

65*
6-4
-2.2
50 Tennessee -1.0

5.3
6.3

0*
4-6
-2.2
51 Toledo 0.9

6.6
5.7

85*
7-3
-2.2
52 Texas Tech 0.6

5.9
5.3

70*
7-4
-2.3
53 Georgia Tech 0.5

6.1
5.6

65*
6-4
-2.3

54 North Carolina 0.3

5.6
5.3

55*
5-5
-2.3
55 TCU 0.1

5.0
4.9

50*
4-7
-2.3
56 Duke 0.5

5.9
5.4

85*
8-2
-2.4
57 Miami (Florida) 1.5

7.0
5.5

110*
7-3
-2.4
58 Boston College 0.0

6.0
6.0

55*
6-4
-2.4
59 San Diego St. 0.6

5.9
5.3

75*
6-4
-2.4
60 Arkansas -0.4

5.5
5.9

35*
3-7
-2.5
61 Northwestern 0.2

5.4
5.2

55*
4-6
-2.6
62 Cincinnati 1.7

6.5
4.8

125*
8-2
-2.6
63 Navy 0.0

5.8
5.8

60*
6-4
-2.6
64 Pittsburgh -0.1

5.4
5.5

55*
5-5
-2.6
65 Buffalo 0.0

5.5
5.5

70*
7-3
-2.7
66 North Texas 0.2

5.6
5.4

75*
7-3
-2.7
67 Ball State 0.7

6.5
5.8

100*
9-2
-2.7
68 Marshall  1.7

6.4
4.7

130*
7-3
-2.8
69 Syracuse -0.3

5.1
5.4

55*
5-5
-2.8
70 Wake Forest -0.6

4.4
5.0

50*
4-6
-2.8
71 Illinois -1.0

5.9
6.9

20*
3-7
-2.8
72 Maryland 0.9

5.9
5.0

100*
6-4
-2.9
73  Rutgers -0.3

5.6
5.9

65*
5-4
-2.9
74 West Virginia -0.6

5.3
5.9

50*
4-7
-3.0
75 Louis.-Lafayette 0.8

6.5
5.7

115*
8-2
-3.0
76 Rice 0.1

5.6
5.5

85*
7-3
-3.0
77 SMU 0.2

6.0
5.8

75*
4-5
-3.0
78 UTSA 0.4

6.0
5.6

80*
5-5
-3.0
79 Mid. Tennessee 0.0

5.4
5.4

80*
6-4
-3.2
80 Kentucky -0.8

5.3
6.1

40*
2-8
-3.2
81 Ohio -0.1

5.6
5.7

80*

6-4

-3.3

82 Arkansas State 0.1

5.9
5.8

85*
6-4
-3.3
83  Florida Atlantic  -0.3

4.9
5.2

60*
4-6
-3.3
84 South Alabama 0.3

6.0
5.7

90*
3-5
-3.4
85 Iowa State -1.7

4.4
6.1

0*
1-9
-3.5
86 Tulane -0.7

4.4
5.1

70*
6-4
-3.6
87 Virginia -1.3

4.4
5.7

35*
2-8
-3.6
88 West. Kentucky 0.5

6.3
5.8

110*
6-4
-3.6
89 San Jose St. 0.4

6.2
5.8

100*
5-5
-3.6

90 Colorado -0.7

5.5
6.2

60*
4-6
-3.7
91 Colorado State 0.3

6.5
6.2

100*
6-5
-3.7
92 Memphis 0.0

4.9
4.9

85*
3-6
-3.7
93 California -1.8

5.2
7.0

0*
1-10
-3.8
94 UNLV -0.6

5.4
6.0

70*
5-5
-3.7
95 N.C. State -0.6

5.2
5.8

60*
3-7
-3.8
96 Louis.-Monroe 
-0.8


5.0
5.8


65*

5-5

-3.8
97 Troy -0.8

5.9
6.7

65*
5-6
-3.8
98 Texas State 0.0

5.2
5.2

100*
6-4
-3.8
99 Nevada -1.7

5.4
7.1

45*
4-7
-4.0
100 Wyoming 0.0

6.1
6.1

95*
4-6
-4.0
101 Temple -1.1

5.7
6.8

55*
1-8
-4.0

102 Tulsa -0.7

4.8
5.5

70*
2-8
-4.2
103 Akron -0.7

4.9
5.6

70*
4-7
-4.2
104 South Florida -1.3

4.4
5.7

55*
2-7
-4.2
105  Cent. Michigan  -0.8

5.3
6.1

75*
4-6
-4.2
106 Air Force -0.6

5.7
6.3

70*
2-8
-4.3
107 Kent State -0.9

5.4
6.3


60*
3-8
-4.3
108  Kansas -1.2

4.5
5.7

55*
3-7
-4.3
109 Army -0.9

5.7
6.6

75*
3-7
-4.4
110 New Mexico -0.5

6.7
7.2

90*
3-7
-4.6
111 Hawaii -0.9

4.9
5.8

55*
0-10
-4.6
112 Louisiana Tech 0.1

5.4
5.3

115*
4-6
-4.6
113 Purdue -1.9

4.2
6.1

45*
1-9
-4.6
114 Connecticut -1.5

4.3
5.8

55*
0-9
-4.8
115 UAB
-1.5


5.9
7.4


85*

2-8

-5.5

116 UTEP  -2.2

5.2
7.4

65*
2-8
-5.6
117   West. Michigan -1.0

4.8
5.8

90*

1-10
-5.7
118 Fl. Int'l FIU  -2.6

3.7
6.3

60*
1-9
-5.9
119 East. Michigan  -2.2

5.4
7.6

70*
2-8
-5.9
120 Southern Miss -1.4

4.4
5.8

90*
0-10
-6.1
121 Idaho -2.2

4.7
6.9

70*
1-9
-6.1
122 Massachusetts -2.2

4.4
6.6

75*
1-9
-6.3
123 New Mexico St. -2.2

5.6
7.8

85*

1-9

-6.3
124 Georgia State -1.3

5.2
6.5

110*
0-10
-6.6
125 Miami (Ohio) -2.5

3.7
6.2

75*
0-10
-6.6

See our 2013 Preseason Rankings Here.

Week 12 2013 College Football FBS Game Prediction RESULTS by SportPundit

Week 12 2013 College Football FBS Game Prediction RESULTS by SportPundit

This week 12 we were
39-12 in calling the winner
but a poor 24-27 against the spread.

Our stats for the season after Week 12 are now 531-147 (78.3%) in calling the winner and 319-264-10 (54.7%) against the spread.

Below are our College Football Predictions for Week 12, 2013 relying on YPPSYS, our Yards Per Play System and our FBS Ratings and Rankings of all 125 Teams after Week 11 of the 2013 Season.

What makes a good prognosticator? Confidence and/or Accuracy?
And how about keeping all those conference changes straight?

Caveat emptor (Buyer beware): We make this material available in good fun out of interest for the sport of college football. Please do not rely on our material to place bets or wagers of any kind. No one knows the exact outcome of a game or a season before it is played and that is what makes it so interesting. We disclaim any and all liability for the consequences of anyone relying in any way upon our postings, analysis, links or reasoning - for which we make no warranty of accuracy. May the best team win.

YPPSYS means "yards per play system", as that is our main ranking component, based primarily on stats at cfbstats.com, but we also use schedule difficulty and conference rankings as based on calculations e.g. at Massey Ratings, although our own system of schedule difficulty prevails.

At YPPSYS, we regard a difference of one rating point to be worth about 7 points on the scoreboard, a calculation, of course, that is not absolute, given home field advantages, etc.

In past weeks we have calculated the home field advantage at an average of about 3 points, but we now also sometimes use Kambour stats.

The betting lines ("odds", "point spread", or "spread") for Week 12 used here were taken from the opening lines at Oddsshark as of Sunday, November 10, 2013. If odds were not yet available, these were entered initially as "??" and are added later as the opening lines, when available, this week from VegasInsider. Note that the lines can and often do change over time, but our predictions do not reflect later changes once we have posted odds here as the basis for comparing our own selections.

Tuesday, November 12, 2013

Ohio at Bowling Green
The Falcons were favored over the Bobcats by 9 points.
Our call: 27-24 for Bowling Green.
Result: The Falcons annihilated the Bobcats 49-0, leading 35-0 at the half.
This week we are 1-0 in calling the winner and 0-1 against the spread.

Buffalo at Toledo
The Rockets were favored over the Bulls by 3.5 points.
Our call: 30-27 for Buffalo.
Result: The Rockets led 31-0 at the half and 38-0 in the third quarter before Buffalo came back, but not enough, scoring 27 points in the 4th quarter in losing 51-41, while outgaining Toledo 601 to 551 total yards.
This week we are 1-1 in calling the winner and 0-2 against the spread.

Wednesday, November 13, 2013

Miami of Ohio at Kent State
The Golden Flashes were favored over the Redhawks by 16.5 points.
Our call: 34-17 for Kent State.
Result: THe Golden Flashes prevailed 24-6, outgaining the Redhawks 447 to 176 yards.
This week we are 2-1 in calling the winner and 1-2 against the spread.

Ball State at Northern Illinois
The Huskies were favored over the Cardinals by 6.5 points.
Our call: 37-27 for Northern Illinois. Huskies unbeatable in MAC?
Result: The Cardinals led 24-20 at halftime and the score was tied 27-27 in the 4th quarter with 5:49 to play, as Northern Illinois pulled away to win 48-27 with three quick late touchdowns in a game closer than the score.
This week we are 3-1 in calling the winner and 2-2 against the spread.

Thursday, November 14, 2013

Marshall at Tulsa
The Thundering Herd were favored over the Golden Hurricane by 14.5 points.
Our call: 38-24 for Marshall.
Result: The Thundering Herd raced to a 21-0 lead in the first quarter only to have the Golden Hurricane fight back to a 34-31 lead in the fourth quarter, but Marshall then prevailed 45-34 with two TDs in closing minutes of the game. The Thundering Herd outgained Tulsa 619 to 345 yards but had 5 turnovers.
This week we are 4-1 in calling the winner and 3-2 against the spread.

Georgia Tech at Clemson
The Tigers were favored over the Yellow Jackets by 10 points.
Our call: 35-24 for Clemson.
Result: The Tigers beat the Yellow Jackets convincingly 55-31.
This week we are 5-1 in calling the winner and 4-2 against the spread.

Friday, November 15, 2013

Washington at UCLA
The Bruins were favored over the Huskies by 6.5 points.
Our call: 31-24 for UCLA. Bruins fresh from rare road win over Arizona.
Result: The two-way playing freshman linebacker Myles Jack -- now there is a Heisman Trophy candidate for best "football player" in the country -- not only made 5 tackles, but also scored 4 touchdowns in a running role as UCLA topped Washington 41-31.
This week we are 6-1 in calling the winner and 5-2 against the spread.

Saturday, November 16, 2013

Troy at Mississippi
The Rebels were favored over the Trojans by 28 points.
Our call: 47-17 for Ole Miss.
Result: The Rebels beat Troy 51-21 behind 4 Wallace TDs.
This week we are 7-1 in calling the winner and 6-2 against the spread.

Cincinnati at Rutgers
The Bearcats were favored over the Scarlet Knights by 2.5 points.
Our call: 27-26 for Rutgers.
Result: Cincinnati's Brendon Kay threw for 405 yards and 4 scores in a 52-17 rout of Rutgers. Kay has a 72.6% completion percentage, just a shade behind leader Johnny Manziel at 73.0%.
This week we are 7-2 in calling the winner and 6-3 against the spread.

Iowa State at Oklahoma
The Sooners were favored over the Cyclones by 21 points.
Our call: 34-20 for Oklahoma. Sooners overrated. Cyclones underrated.
Result: The game was tied 10-10 at the half but Iowa State must have left their game in the locker room at intermission, as the Sooners scored 38 unanswered points in the second half to win 48-10.
This week we are 8-2 in calling the winner and 6-4 against the spread.

Purdue at Penn State
The Nittany Lions were favored over the Boilermakers by 20.5 points.
Our call: 35-14 for Penn State.
Result: The Nittany Lions popped the Boilermakers 45-21.
This week we are 9-2 in calling the winner and 7-4 against the spread.

UCF at Temple
The Knights were favored over the Owls by 17 points.
Our call: 45-17 for Central Florida. Knights won critical game against Houston.
Result: Developing freshman quarterback P.J. Walker is turning the Owls into a team to be feared despite their 1-9 record, as highly favored UCF was lucky to escape with a 39-36 win on a 23-yard game-ending field goal by Shawn Moffitt.
This week we are 10-2 in calling the winner and 7-5 against the spread.

Indiana at Wisconsin
The Badgers were favored over the Hoosiers by 18.5 points.
Our call: 41-21 for Wisconsin. Badgers looked good against BYU on ESPN.
Result: The Badgers ran for 554 yards in pummelling the Hoosiers 51-3.
This week we are 11-2 in calling the winner and 8-5 against the spread.

Ohio State at Illinois
The Buckeyes were favored over the Illini by 32 points.
Our call: 56-21 for Ohio State.
Result: The Buckeyes beat Illinois 60-35 in an essentially defensively unimpressive win over a weak opponent which saw the Illini come back from a 35-7 deficit in the first half to trail only 47-35 in the middle of the fourth quarter. Carlos Hyde ran for 246 yards and 4 TDs and Braxton Miller ran for 184 yards and threw for 150 yards and 2 TDs. Could Ohio State outscore Baylor? or Florida State? or even Alabama? At this juncture, doubtful.
This week we are 12-2 in calling the winner and 8-6 against the spread.

West Virginia at Kansas
The Mountaineers were favored over the Jayhawks by 7.5 points.
Our call: 35-21 for West Virginia.
Result: The Jayhawks fooled nearly everyone by snapping their Big-12 27-game conference losing streak, topping the Mountaineers 31-19. Poor defense continues to be a vexation for West Virginia.
This week we are 12-3 in calling the winner and 8-7 against the spread.

Central Michigan at Western Michigan
The Chippewas were favored over the Broncos by 2.5 points.
Our call: 34-21 for Central Michigan. Broncos lost to E. Michigan last week.
Result: The Chippewas survived 5 turnovers to emerge with the victory 27-22.
This week we are 13-3 in calling the winner and 9-7 against the spread.

Kentucky at Vanderbilt
The Commodores were favored over the Wildcats by 13.5 points.
Our call: 35-21 for Vanderbilt.
Result: Vandy became bowl-eligible again after last year's banner season, topping the Wildcats 22-6.
This week we are 14-3 in calling the winner and 10-7 against the spread.

North Carolina State at Boston College
The Eagles were favored over the Wolfpack by 7.5 points.
Our call: 38-28 for Boston College.
Result:Boston College, which always went to a bowl game before a dearth of 3 seasons, became bowl-eligible again, beating the Eagles 38-21, as Andre Williams ran for a school-record 339 yards on 42 carries.
This week we are 15-3 in calling the winner and 11-7 against the spread.

North Carolina at Pittsburgh
The game is seen as even at 0 points.
Our call: 30-27 for Pittsburgh.
Result: The Panthers, unlikely conquerors of Notre Dame last week, remain an enigma, losing to the Tar Heels 34-27, in spite of outgaining them 359 to 322 yards and dominating possession for 37 minutes.
This week we are 15-4 in calling the winner and 11-8 against the spread.

Maryland at Virginia Tech
The Hokies were favored over the Terrapins by 15 points.
Our call: 31-14 for Virginia Tech.
Result: The Hokies were upset at home by the Terps 27-24.
This week we are 15-5 in calling the winner and 11-9 against the spread.

Florida Atlantic at Southern Miss
The Owls were favored over the Golden Eagles by 14.5 points.
Our call: 34-13 for Florida Atlantic.
Result: The Owls vanquished the winless Golden Eagles 41-7, who now have the longest losing streak in FBS of 22 games, 10 of those this season..
This week we are 16-5 in calling the winner and 12-9 against the spread.

Akron at Massachusetts
The Zips were favored over the Minutemen by 7 points.
Our call: 34-20 for Akron.
Result: The Zips squeaked past UMass 14-13.
This week we are 17-5 in calling the winner and 12-10 against the spread.

Washington State at Arizona
The Wildcats were favored over the Cougars by 13.5 points.
Our call: 35-21 for Arizona.
Result: Connor Hallidy threw for 319 yards as Washington State upset Arizona 24-17 on the road.
This week we are 17-6 in calling the winner and 12-11 against the spread.

UAB at East Carolina
The Pirates were favored over the Blazers by 25 points.
Our call: 45-17 for East Carolina.
Result: Shane Carden threw for 5 touchdowns as East Carolina rolled 63-14 past the Blazers.
This week we are 18-6 in calling the winner and 13-11 against the spread.

Louisiana Lafayette (LA Lafayette, ULL) at Georgia State
The Ragin' Cajuns were favored over the Panthers by 21 points.
Our call: 41-21 for Louisiana Lafayette.
Result: The Cajuns bested the winless but improving Panthers 35-21.
This week we are 19-6 in calling the winner and 14-11 against the spread.

Idaho State at BYU
The Cougars were favored over the Bengals by 45 points.
Our call: 45-7 for Brigham Young U.
Result: BYU won 59-13.
This week we are 20-6 in calling the winner and 14-12 against the spread.

Connecticut at SMU
The Mustangs were favored over the Huskies by 13.5 points.
Our call: 34-21 for SMU.
Result: The Mustangs got past the Huskies 38-21.
This week we are 21-6 in calling the winner and 14-13 against the spread.

Georgia at Auburn
The Tigers were favored over the Bulldogs by 3 points.
Our call: 38-34 for Auburn.
Result: The Tigers blew a 27-7 lead as Georgia took the lead 38-37 with less than 2 minutes play, but the Bulldogs then lost a heartbreaker 43-38 as Auburn's Nick Marshall on 4th and 18 with 25 seconds to play completed a deflected miraculously caught pass to Ricardo Louis for a 73-yard touchdown.
This week we are 22-6 in calling the winner and 15-13 against the spread.

Syracuse at Florida State
The Seminoles were favored over the Orange by 38.5 points.
Our call: 49-14 for Florida State.
Result: The Seminoles led 59-0 after three quarters and won 59-3.
This week we are 23-6 in calling the winner and 15-14 against the spread.

Michigan at Northwestern
The Wildcats were favored over the Wolverines by 1.5 points.
Our call: 30-23 for Michigan.
Result: Brendan Gibbons kicked a 44-yard field goal to tie the game at the end of regulation play and the Wolverines won in three overtimes 27-19 on Devin Gardner runs for the TD and 2-point conversion.
This week we are 24-6 in calling the winner and 16-14 against the spread.

Miami of Florida at Duke
The Hurricanes were favored over the Blue Devils by 3 points.
Our call: 28-24 for Miami.
Result: The ACC most certainly has its share of surprises this year, as Duke took over the Coastal Division lead by scoring the last 20 points in the game to beat Miami 48-30, with Brandon Connette rushing for 4 TDs.
This week we are 24-7 in calling the winner and 16-15 against the spread.

Michigan State at Nebraska
The Spartans were favored over the Huskers by 3.5 points.
Our call: 23-20 for Nebraska.
Result: The Cornhuskers turned the ball over 5 times to zero to lose to the Spartans 41-28, Nebraska's first football loss ever to Michigan State. The last time the Huskers, as here, had 3 first-quarter turnovers was in Bo Pelini's first full season as head coach of the Big Red in a 62-38 loss to Oklahoma. Against the Spartans here, the first turnover came on a rush on the third play of the game by a (surely developing) freshman back who had carried the ball only once in each of the previous two games. So you put him in at the start of the game against the nation's best defense?? THAT is poor coaching judgment and that is what is sinking Nebraska. As Dirk Chatelain correctly writes about Bo Pelini head-coached Big Red teams, It's the same season, over and over: mistakes, failed execution, poor preparation, a lack of adjusment, over-conservatism, wishful thinking, a 6-year winning record padded by wins over weak teams and no wins over quality top-ten teams. etc. As a Husker alum, we think "enough is enough", but if Nebraskans are willing to live with this Hruska-famed mediocrity, it is their choice. We would right the ship by bringing in champions, and e.g. try to hire Stanford and Nebraska man Scott Frost, now at Oregon, as head coach. As written about Frost by Tom FitzGerald at SFGate: "Because of his X's-and-O's acumen, his recruiting skills and his ability to connect with his players and draw out their best, Frost is considered one of the hottest assistant coaches in the country. [Stanford's] Shaw thinks it's only a matter of time before he becomes a head coach."
This week we are 24-8 in calling the winner and 16-16 against the spread.

Oklahoma State at Texas
The Cowboys were favored over the Longhorns by 2 points.
Our call: 27-24 for Texas.
Result: The Longhorns were dominated by the Cowboys 38-13.
This week we are 24-9 in calling the winner and 16-17 against the spread.

TCU at Kansas State
The Wildcats were favored over the Horned Frogs by 10.5 points.
Our call: 35-21 for K-State.
Result: The Wildcats survived 33-31 on a 41-yard field goal by Jack Cantele with 3 seconds to go, following a 56-yarder by TCU's Jaden Oberkrom that had given the Horned Frogs the lead with a little over 2 minutes to go.
This week we are 25-9 in calling the winner and 16-18 against the spread.

South Alabama at Navy
The Midshipmen were favored over the Jaguars by 9.5 points.
Our call: 30-27 for Navy.
Result: The Midshipmen demolished the Jaguars 42-14.
This week we are 26-9 in calling the winner and 16-19 against the spread.

Utah at Oregon
The Ducks were favored over the Utes by 25 points.
Our call: 42-21 for Oregon. Utah was able to beat Stanford by matching them physically and attacking the perimeter, a concept worked out by Dennis Erickson. They saw from Stanford last week what you need to do to beat the Ducks, but the Utah offense will be unable to control the ball 42 minutes.
Result: The Ducks beat Utah 44-21 as Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota threw for 3 TDs. He has thrown for 25 TDs but had NO interceptions of his passes the entire year. A Heisman Trophy candidate for sure.
This week we are 27-9 in calling the winner and 17-19 against the spread.

California at Colorado
The Buffaloes were favored over the Golden Bears by 1 point.
Our call: 34-31 for Colorado.
Result: The Buffaloes stampeded California 41-24 to break a 14-game losing streak in the Pac-12 conference.
This week we are 28-9 in calling the winner and 18-19 against the spread.

Memphis at South Florida
The Tigers were favored over the Bulls by 2.5 points.
Our call: 24-23 for South Florida. Two 2-6 teams meet. South Florida has played much tougher competition, but needs to find an offense.
Result: The Tigers dropped the Bulls 23-10 with a 17-point 4th quarter, in spite of being outgained 325 to 242 yards, as South Florida was intercepted 4 times by Memphis and turned the ball over a total of 5 times.
This week we are 28-10 in calling the winner and 18-20 against the spread.

Houston at Louisville
The Cardinals were favored over the Cougars by 16.5 points.
Our call: 38-27 for Louisville. Houston lost a close one to UCF last week. Both Cardinals and Cougars average ca. 38 points per game offense, but Louisville has an 11+ point lead in defense.
Result: The Cardinals trailed 13-10 at the half put pulled out a 20-13 win with 10 points in the 3rd quarter.
This week we are 29-10 in calling the winner and 19-20 against the spread.

Colorado State at New Mexico
The Rams were favored over the Lobos by 4 points.
Our call: 34-27 for Colorado State. Rams apparently getting stronger.
Result: The Rams and Lobos put on an offensive fireworks, as Colorado State won 66-42 with 21 unanswered 4th-quarter points.
This week we are 30-10 in calling the winner and 20-20 against the spread.

Texas Tech at Baylor
The Bears were favored over the Red Raiders by 27 points.
Our call: 52-14 for Baylor.
Result: The offense of the Bears continues to impress, as Baylor downed the Red Raiders 63-34, with QB Bryce Petty throwing for 3 and running for 2 TDs.
This week we are 31-10 in calling the winner and 21-20 against the spread.

Louisiana Tech at Rice
The Owls were favored over the Bulldogs by 15 points.
Our call: 34-20 for Rice.
Result: The Owls overwhelmed Louisiana Tech 52-14.
This week we are 32-10 in calling the winner and 21-21 against the spread.

Florida at South Carolina
The Gamecocks were favored over the Gators by 11 points.
Our call: 30-17 for South Carolina.
Result: The Gamecocks squeaked past the Gators 19-14.
This week we are 33-10 in calling the winner and 21-22 against the spread.

Texas State at Arkansas State
The Red Wolves were favored over the Bobcats by 6.5 points.
Our call: 34-27 for Arkansas State.
Result: The Red Wolves topped Texas State 38-21.
This week we are 34-10 in calling the winner and 22-22 against the spread.

Alabama at Mississippi State
The Crimson Tide were favored over the Bulldogs by 24.5 points.
Our call: 35-7 for Alabama.
Result: The Crimson Tide turned the ball over 4 times but still won 20-7.
This week we are 35-10 in calling the winner and 22-23 against the spread.

Stanford at USC
The Cardinal were favored over the Trojans by 3 points.
Our call: 30-23 for Stanford.
Result: The Trojans derailed Stanford's national and conference championship hopes 20-17 on a last-minute field goal.
This week we are 35-11 in calling the winner and 22-24 against the spread.

FIU at UTEP (Texas El Paso)
The Miners were favored over the Panthers by 6 points.
Our call: 24-23 for UTEP.
Result: The Miners won easily over the Panthers 33-10.
This week we are 36-11 in calling the winner and 22-25 against the spread.

Oregon State at Arizona State
The Sun Devils were favored over the Beavers by 13.5 points.
Our call: 51-31 for Arizona State. Sun Devils hard to stop.
Result: The Sun Devils prevailed over the Beavers 30-17.
This week we are 37-11 in calling the winner and 22-26 against the spread.

Wyoming at Boise State
The Broncos were favored over the Cowboys by 20 points.
Our call: 45-24 for Boise State. Cowboys have faded as season progresses.
Result: The Broncos rolled to a 48-7 win over Wyoming.
This week we are 38-11 in calling the winner and 23-26 against the spread.

San Diego State at Hawaii
The Aztecs were favored over the Warriors by 5 points.
Our call: 34-24 for San Diego State. Aztecs beat San Jose State last week.
Result: The Aztecs beat the Warriors 28-21 in overtime.
This week we are 39-11 in calling the winner and 24-26 against the spread.

San Jose State at Nevada
The Spartans were favored over the Wolf Pack by 7 points.
Our call: 38-27 for San Jose State. Wolf Pack has lost five in a row.
Result: The Wolfpack pulled off a surprisingly convincing win over San Jose State 38-16.
This week we are 39-12 in calling the winner and 24-27 against the spread.

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