Sunday, November 10, 2013

Week 12 2013 College Football FBS Game Predictions by SportPundit

Week 12 2013 College Football FBS Game Predictions by SportPundit

Depending on the conference of your interest, there are some interesting matchups on tap this week involving championship contenders. Take a look. 

Our stats for the season after Week 11 are 492-135 (78.5%) in calling the winner and 295-237-10 (55.5%) against the spread.

Below are our College Football Predictions for Week 12, 2013 relying on YPPSYS, our Yards Per Play System and our FBS Ratings and Rankings of all 125 Teams after Week 11 of the 2013 Season.

What makes a good prognosticator? Confidence and/or Accuracy?
And how about keeping all those conference changes straight?

Caveat emptor (Buyer beware): We make this material available in good fun out of interest for the sport of college football. Please do not rely on our material to place bets or wagers of any kind. No one knows the exact outcome of a game or a season before it is played and that is what makes it so interesting. We disclaim any and all liability for the consequences of anyone relying in any way upon our postings, analysis, links or reasoning - for which we make no warranty of accuracy. May the best team win.

YPPSYS means "yards per play system", as that is our main ranking component, based primarily on stats at cfbstats.com, but we also use schedule difficulty and conference rankings as based on calculations e.g. at Massey Ratings, although our own system of schedule difficulty prevails.

At YPPSYS, we regard a difference of one rating point to be worth about 7 points on the scoreboard, a calculation, of course, that is not absolute, given home field advantages, etc.

In past weeks we have calculated the home field advantage at an average of about 3 points, but we now also sometimes use Kambour stats.

The betting lines ("odds", "point spread", or "spread") for Week 12 used here were taken from the opening lines at Oddsshark as of Sunday, November 10, 2013. If odds were not yet available, these were entered initially as "??" and are added later, when available. Note that the lines can and often do change over time, but our predictions do not reflect later changes once we have posted odds here as the basis for comparing our own selections.

Tuesday, November 12, 2013

Ohio at Bowling Green
The Falcons are favored over the Bobcats by 9 points.
Our call: 27-24 for Bowling Green. In the MAC you just don't know.

Buffalo at Toledo
The Rockets are favored over the Bulls by 3.5 points.
Our call: 30-27 for Buffalo. Bulls have 7-game winning streak and getting stronger every game. They would love to play Ohio State and Baylor now.

Wednesday, November 13, 2013

Miami of Ohio at Kent State
The Golden Flashes are favored over the Redhawks by 16.5 points.
Our call: 34-17 for Kent State. Redhawks weakest team in FBS?

Ball State at Northern Illinois
The Huskies are favored over the Cardinals by 6.5 points.
Our call: 37-27 for Northern Illinois. Huskies unbeatable in MAC?

Thursday, November 14, 2013

Marshall at Tulsa
The Thundering Herd are favored over the Golden Hurricane by 14.5 points.
Our call: 38-24 for Marshall. Thundering Herd maturing?

Georgia Tech at Clemson
The Tigers are favored over the Yellow Jackets by 10 points.
Our call: 35-24 for Clemson. These teams have success if matchups match.

Friday, November 15, 2013

Washington at UCLA
The Bruins are favored over the Huskies by 6.5 points.
Our call: 31-24 for UCLA. Bruins fresh from rare road win over Arizona.

Saturday, November 16, 2013

Troy at Mississippi
The Rebels are favored over the Trojans by 28 points.
Our call: 47-17 for Ole Miss. Rebels were not impressive last week.

Cincinnati at Rutgers
The Bearcats are favored over the Scarlet Knights by 2.5 points.
Our call: 27-26 for Rutgers. Neither team has a signature win.

Iowa State at Oklahoma
The Sooners are favored over the Cyclones by 21 points.
Our call: 34-20 for Oklahoma. Sooners overrated. Cyclones underrated.

Purdue at Penn State
The Nittany Lions are favored over the Boilermakers by 20.5 points.
Our call: 35-14 for Penn State. Nittany Lions lost to Minnesota last week.

UCF at Temple
The Knights are favored over the Owls by 17 points.
Our call: 45-17 for Central Florida. Knights won critical game against Houston.

Indiana at Wisconsin
The Badgers are favored over the Hoosiers by 18.5 points.
Our call: 41-21 for Wisconsin. Badgers looked good against BYU on ESPN.

Ohio State at Illinois
The Buckeyes are favored over the Illini by 32 points.
Our call: 56-21 for Ohio State. Urban Meyer working his magic in Columbus.

West Virginia at Kansas
The Mountaineers are favored over the Jayhawks by 7.5 points.
Our call: 35-21 for West Virginia. Mountaineers could use a defense.

Central Michigan at Western Michigan
The Chippewas are favored over the Broncos by 2.5 points.
Our call: 34-21 for Central Michigan. Broncos lost to E. Michigan last week.

Kentucky at Vanderbilt
The Commodores are favored over the Wildcats by 13.5 points.
Our call: 35-21 for Vanderbilt. Vandy stunned Gators last week.

North Carolina State at Boston College
The Eagles are favored over the Wolfpack by 7.5 points.
Our call: 38-28 for Boston College. BC getting better. NC State not sure.

North Carolina at Pittsburgh
The game is seen as even at 0 points.
Our call: 30-27 for Pittsburgh. Pitt fresh from win over Notre Dame.

Maryland at Virginia Tech
The Hokies are favored over the Terrapins by 15 points.
Our call: 31-14 for Virginia Tech. Hokies on a tear last week.

Florida Atlantic at Southern Miss
The Owls are favored over the Golden Eagles by 14.5 points.
Our call: 34-13 for Florida Atlantic. Owls getting stronger in spite of troubles.

Akron at Massachusetts
The Zips are favored over the Minutemen by 7 points.
Our call: 34-20 for Akron. Zips and Minutemen both slowly improving.

Washington State at Arizona
The Wildcats are favored over the Cougars by 13.5 points.
Our call: 35-21 for Arizona. Can Wildcats recover from UCLA loss?

UAB at East Carolina
The Pirates are favored over the Blazers by 25 points.
Our call: 45-17 for East Carolina. The Pirates go when they are on.

Louisiana Lafayette (LA Lafayette, ULL) at Georgia State
The Ragin' Cajuns are favored over the Panthers by 21 points.
Our call: 41-21 for Louisiana Lafayette. Panthers too weak for ULL?

Idaho State at BYU
The Cougars are favored over the Bengals by ?? points.
Our call: 45-7 for Brigham Young U. No real chance for Idaho State.

Connecticut at SMU
The Mustangs are favored over the Huskies by 13.5 points.
Our call: 34-21 for SMU. Just a few years ago, UConn was a BCS team.

Georgia at Auburn
The Tigers are favored over the Bulldogs by 3 points.
Our call: 38-34 for Auburn. Will there be Malzahn Magic against Murray?

Syracuse at Florida State
The Seminoles are favored over the Orange by 38.5 points.
Our call: 49-14 for Florida State. The Orange have been tough to predict.

Michigan at Northwestern
The Wildcats are favored over the Wolverines by 1.5 points.
Our call: 30-23 for Michigan. Wolverine tailspin due to stop.

Miami of Florida at Duke
The Hurricanes are favored over the Blue Devils by 3 points.
Our call: 28-24 for Miami. Great season for Duke, but beat Miami?

Michigan State at Nebraska
The Spartans are favored over the Huskers by 3.5 points.
Our call: 23-20 for Nebraska. The Huskers have never lost to Michigan State.

Oklahoma State at Texas
The Cowboys are favored over the Longhorns by 2 points.
Our call: 27-24 for Texas. The Longhorns are winning with Case McCoy at QB.

TCU at Kansas State
The Wildcats are favored over the Horned Frogs by 10.5 points.
Our call: 35-21 for K-State. Bill Snyder has Wildcats excelling again.

South Alabama at Navy
The Midshipmen are favored over the Jaguars by 9.5 points.
Our call: 30-27 for Navy. Jaguars have 5 losses, none by more than 7 points.

Utah at Oregon
The Ducks are favored over the Utes by ?? points.
Our call: 42-21 for Oregon. Utah was able to beat Stanford by matching them physically and attacking the perimeter, a concept worked out by Dennis Erickson. They saw from Stanford last week what you need to do to beat the Ducks, but the Utah offense will be unable to control the ball 42 minutes.

California at Colorado
The Buffaloes are favored over the Golden Bears by 1 point.
Our call: 34-31 for Colorado. Mile high country has a home field advantage.

Memphis at South Florida
The Tigers are favored over the Bulls by 2.5 points.
Our call: 24-23 for South Florida. Two 2-6 teams meet. South Florida has played much tougher competition, but needs to find an offense.

Houston at Louisville
The Cardinals are favored over the Cougars by 16.5 points.
Our call: 38-27 for Louisville. Houston lost a close one to UCF last week. Both Cardinals and Cougars average ca. 38 points per game offense, but Louisville has an 11+ point lead in defense.

Colorado State at New Mexico
The Rams are favored over the Lobos by 4 points.
Our call: 34-27 for Colorado State. Rams apparently getting stronger.

Texas Tech at Baylor
The Bears are favored over the Red Raiders by 27 points.
Our call: 52-14 for Baylor. Bears coming off impressive win over the Sooners.

Louisiana Tech at Rice
The Owls are favored over the Bulldogs by 15 points.
Our call: 34-20 for Rice. The Owls are 6-3.

Florida at South Carolina
The Gamecocks are favored over the Gators by 11 points.
Our call: 30-17 for South Carolina. Florida needs to find an offense.

Texas State at Arkansas State
The Red Wolves are favored over the Bobcats by 6.5 points.
Our call: 34-27 for Arkansas State. The Red Wolves topped LA Monroe last week.

Alabama at Mississippi State
The Crimson Tide are favored over the Bulldogs by 24.5 points.
Our call: 35-7 for Alabama. The Bulldogs have struggled against good defenses.

Stanford at USC
The Cardinal are favored over the Trojans by 3 points.
Our call: 30-23 for Stanford. Southern Cal has been improving, so this is no sure win for Stanford.

FIU at UTEP (Texas El Paso)
The Miners are favored over the Panthers by 6 points.
Our call: 24-23 for UTEP. A battle of two weaker teams. Who will prevail?

Oregon State at Arizona State
The Sun Devils are favored over the Beavers by 13.5 points.
Our call: 51-31 for Arizona State. Sun Devils hard to stop.

Wyoming at Boise State
The Broncos are favored over the Cowboys by 20 points.
Our call: 45-24 for Boise State. Cowboys have faded as season progresses.

San Diego State at Hawaii
The Aztecs are favored over the Warriors by 5 points.
Our call: 34-24 for San Diego State. Aztecs beat San Jose State last week.

San Jose State at Nevada
The Spartans are favored over the Wolf Pack by 7 points.
Our call: 38-27 for San Jose State. Wolf Pack has lost five in a row.

2013 FBS College Football Rankings after WEEK 11 of play, by SportPundit

Below are the 2013 FBS College Football Rankings after WEEK 11 of play, by SportPundit.

Please read the indented material unless you are already familiar with it.
Caveat emptor (Buyer beware): We make this material available in good fun out of interest for the sport of college football. Please do not rely on our material to place bets or wagers of any kind. No one knows the exact outcome of a game or a season before it is played and that is what makes it so interesting. We disclaim any and all liability for the consequences of anyone relying in any way upon our postings, analysis, links or reasoning - for which we make no warranty of accuracy. May the best team win.

These ratings and rankings are based in part on our primary measure of "net average yards per play advantage" (NAYPPA), a specific predictive calculation which we were the first to implement, minus a calculation based on the schedule difficulty and a penalty for losses. Gauging schedule difficulty is always an approximation!

Yards per play stats are taken from cfbstats.com. In recent years, an average FBS team gained ca. 5.4 yards per play on offense and allowed ca. 5.4 yards per play on defense, a stat that holds fairly constant from year to year, but slightly affected by FCS scheduling.
 
Massey Ratings schedule difficulty ratings are used in part, but we have our own -- objective and subjective -- judgments and adjustments to handle schedule difficulty.
As a general rule of thumb for our rankings and ratings -- taking the NAYPPA, we subtract .01 times 2x the schedule difficulty up to 50, and .01 times 3x the schedule difficulty for 55 and up. We subtract .2 for every loss. The system is a bit unwieldy for calculation, but we have to account for strong teams beating up on weak ones.

As a measuring stick, note that the best (undefeated) college teams of all time had a NAYPPA of not greater than 3.0 for an entire season. Schedules have become easier recently, e.g. through FCS scheduling, and Boise State had a 3.5 "season NAYPPA" three years ago but lost a game and played an easier schedule than top teams. According to the yards-per-play standard, the 2012-2013 Alabama team would have been ranked among the best teams ever, had they not lost to Texas A&M. But they did lose.

See Best Teams Ever: (top three as examples below)
We repeat that in past recent years, an average FBS team gained ca. 5.4 yards per play on offense and allowed ca. 5.4 yards per play on defense, a statistic that has held fairly constant.

THE 2013 SportPundit & YPPSYS TEAM RANKINGS AND RATINGS after WEEK 11


Team
Rank
AFTER
Week
- 11 -
2013
by 
Sport
Pundit
AFTER
Week
 - 11 -
2013

* =
adjustment
NAYPPA
net average yards per play advantage offense over defense based on stats from cfbstats.com
(our calculation) 


yards
per
play offense

yards
per
play defense


Schedule difficulty
*plus or minus  subjective adjustments*
 (calculation based in part on Massey Ratings AND also a lot on our own past ratings and rankings)

W-L
(won
-loss)
record
2013

YPPSYS
Team
Rating NAYPPA
minus .01 x
2x schedule difficulty up to 50 minus 3x schedule difficulty thereafter
minus .2 for every loss.

Alabama
2.1

7.0
4.9

50*
9-0
+1.1
Florida State
3.5

7.6
4.1

85*
9-0
+1.0
3 Baylor
4.5


8.6
4.1


120*

8-0

+0.9

4 Oregon 3.4

7.9
4.5

80*
8-1
+0.8

5 Ohio State 2.3

7.0
4.7

55*
9-0
+0.7
6Stanford 1.2

6.0
4.8

20*
8-1
+0.6
7 Missouri 1.7

6.8
5.1

50*
9-1
+0.5
8 LSU 2.0

7.2
5.2

50*
7-3
+0.4
9 Auburn 1.6

7.1
5.5

50*
9-1
+0.3
10 Texas A&M 1.5

7.6
6.1

50*

8-2

+0.2 

11 Georgia 1.6

6.8
5.2

50*
6-3
+0.0
12 Mississippi 0.6

6.1
5.5

10*
6-3
-0.2
13 South Carolina
1.0


6.4
5.4

40*
7-2
-0.2
14 Michigan State 1.7

5.2
3.5

55*
8-1
-0.2
15 Wisconsin
2.7


7.1
4.4


85*

7-2

-0.2

16 UCF 1.3

6.6
5.3

55*
7-1
-0.3
17 Louisville 3.1

7.3
4.2

110*
8-1
-0.4
18 Clemson 0.9

6.0
5.1

55*
8-1
-0.8
19 UCLA 1.1

6.1
5.0

55*
7-2
-0.9
20 Arizona State
1.0


6.1
5.1


55*
7-2
-1.1
21 USC 1.3

6.2
4.9

60*
7-3
-1.1
22 Oklahoma St. 1.0

5.7
4.7

70*
8-1
-1.3
23 Nebraska 0.4

5.8
5.4

55*
7-2
-1.5
24 Washington 1.4

6.4
5.0

75*
6-3
-1.5
25 Virginia Tech 0.9

5.2
4.3

60*
7-3
-1.5
26 Miami (Florida) 1.6

7.0
5.4

90*
7-2
-1.5
27 BYU 0.7

5.6
4.9

55*
6-3
-1.5
28 Michigan 0.7

5.7
5.0

55*
6-3
-1.5
29 Oklahoma0.7

5.7
5.0

60*
7-2
-1.5
30 Notre Dame 1.2

6.3
5.1

70*
7-3
-1.5
31 Vanderbilt 0.2

5.6
5.4

45*
5-4
-1.5
32 Florida0.1

4.8
4.7

30*
4-5
-1.5
33 Texas 0.4

5.7
5.3

55*
7-2
-1.5
34 Kansas State 1.2

6.3
5.1

65*
5-4
-1.5
35 North. Illinois 1.3

6.8
5.5

100*
9-0
-1.7
36 Houston 0.9

6.3
5.4

75*
7-2
-1.7
37 Oregon State 0.4

6.2
5.8

55*
6-3
-1.8
38 Utah 0.6

5.7
5.1

55*
4-5
-1.8
39 Arizona 0.7

5.8
5.1

70*
6-3

-2.0
40 Texas Tech 0.9

6.0
5.1

75*
7-3
-2.0
41 Iowa
0.6


5.4
4.8

60*
6-4
-2.0
42 Fresno State 0.8

6.2
5.4

95*
9-0
-2.0
43 Georgia Tech 0.8

6.1
5.3

75*
6-3
-2.0

44 Boise State 0.7


6.1
5.4

70*
6-3
-2.0
45 TCU 0.2

5.0
4.8

50*
4-6
-2.0
46 Utah State
1.2


6.0
4.8


80*

6-4

-2.0

47 East Carolina 1.1

5.6
4.5

90*
7-2
-2.0
48 Minnesota -0.2

5.6
5.8

55*
8-2
-2.1
49 Penn State 0.1

5.5
5.4

55*
5-4
-2.2
50 Mississippi St.
0.4


6.2
5.8


55*

4-5

-2.2

51 Tennessee -1.0

5.3
6.3

0*
4-6
-2.2
52 Toledo 0.9

6.5
5.6

85*
6-3
-2.2
53 North Carolina 0.2

5.6
5.4

55*
4-5
-2.3
54 Boston College -0.2

5.9
6.1

55*
5-4
-2.4
55  Rutgers 0.2

5.7
5.5

65*
5-3
-2.4
56 Pittsburgh -0.1

5.5
5.6

55*
5-4
-2.4
57 Arkansas -0.4

5.5
5.9

35*
3-7
-2.5
58 Duke 0.6

5.8
5.2

90*
7-2
-2.5
59 Washington St. -0.6

5.5
6.1

45*
4-5
-2.5
60 Northwestern 0.2

5.6
5.4

60*
4-5
-2.6
61 Indiana 0.8

7.0
6.2

80*
4-5
-2.6
62 Syracuse 0.4

5.4
5.0

55*
5-4
-2.6
63 Buffalo -0.1

5.4
5.3

70*
7-2
-2.6
64 North Texas 0.2

5.6
5.4

75*
7-3
-2.6
65 Ball State 0.9

6.5
5.6

110*
9-1
-2.6
66 Ohio 0.4

5.9
5.5

80*

6-3

-2.6

67 Marshall  1.7

6.5
4.8

125*
6-3
-2.6
68 Bowling Green 0.9

6.3
5.4

95*
6-3
-2.6
69 San Diego St. 0.3

5.8
5.5

70*
5-4
-2.6
70 West Virginia -0.6

5.3
5.9

50*
4-6
-2.8
71 Cincinnati 1.3

6.2
4.9

125*
7-2
-2.8
72 Wake Forest -0.6

4.4
5.0

50*
4-6
-2.8
73 Illinois -0.7

6.1
6.8

50*
3-6
-2.9
74 San Jose St. 0.6

6.3
5.7

90*
5-4
-2.9

75 Kentucky -0.7

5.5
6.2

45*
2-7
-3.0
76 Maryland 0.9

6.0
5.1

115*
5-4
-3.0
77 Louis.-Lafayette 0.7

6.4
5.7

110*
7-2
-3.0
78 Rice 0.0

5.5
5.5

80*
6-3
-3.0
79 SMU 0.1

6.0
5.9

75*
3-5
-3.0
80 Navy -0.4

5.6
6.0

60*
5-4
-3.0
81 UTSA 0.4

6.0
5.6

80*
5-5
-3.0
82 Iowa State -1.5

4.4
5.9

0*
1-8
-3.1
83 Mid. Tennessee 0.0

5.4
5.4

80*
6-4
-3.2
84 Arkansas State 0.1

5.9
5.8

90*
5-4
-3.4
85 N.C. State -0.4

5.2
5.6

60*
3-6
-3.4
86  Florida Atlantic  -0.5

4.9
5.4

55*
3-6
-3.4
87 South Alabama 0.3

6.0
5.7

90*
3-5
-3.4
88 Tulane -0.7

4.4
5.1

70*
6-4
-3.6
89 California -1.8

5.2
7.0

0*
1-9
-3.6
90 Virginia -1.3

4.4
5.7

35*
2-8
-3.6
91 West. Kentucky 0.5

6.3
5.8

110*
6-4
-3.6
92 Colorado -1.0

5.3
6.3

55*
3-6
-3.7
93 Colorado State 0.3

6.3
6.0

100*
5-5
-3.7
94 South Florida -1.5

4.3
5.8

50*
2-6
-3.7
95 Memphis 0.0

4.9
4.9

85*
2-6
-3.7
96 UNLV -0.6

5.4
6.0

70*
5-5
-3.7
97 Louis.-Monroe 
-0.8


5.0
5.8


65*

5-5

-3.8
98 Troy -0.5

6.0
6.5

75*
5-5
-3.8
99 Texas State 0.0

5.1
5.1

105*
6-3
-3.8
100 Wyoming 0.3

6.4
6.1

110*
4-5
-4.0
101 Tulsa -0.5

4.9
5.4

70*
2-7
-4.0
102 Akron -0.8

4.9
5.7

65*
3-7
-4.1
103 Connecticut -1.6

4.2
5.8

50*
0-8
-4.2
104  Cent. Michigan  -0.9

5.4
6.3

75*
3-6
-4.2
105 Temple -1.1

5.5
6.6

55*
1-8
-4.3

106 Air Force -0.6

5.7
6.3

70*
2-8
-4.3
107 Nevada -2.0

5.3
7.3

50*
3-7
-4.4
108 Army -0.9

5.7
6.6

75*
3-7
-4.4
109 New Mexico -0.5

6.5
7.0

90*
3-6
-4.4
110 Hawaii -0.7

5.0
5.7

70*
0-9
-4.6
111  Kansas -1.4

4.3
5.7

60*
2-7
-4.6
112 Louisiana Tech 0.2

5.3
5.1

125*
4-5
-4.6
113 Purdue -2.0

4.1
6.1

50*
1-8
-4.6
114 Kent State -1.2

5.3
6.5


60*
2-8
-4.6
115 UAB
-1.3


6.0
7.3


85*

2-7

-5.3

116   West. Michigan -1.0

4.9
5.9

90*
1-9
-5.5
117 Fl. Int'l FIU  -2.6

3.7
6.3

60*
1-8
-5.7
118 East. Michigan  -2.2

5.4
7.6

70*
2-8
-5.9
119 Southern Miss -1.4

4.5
5.9

90*
0-9
-5.9
120 Idaho -2.2

4.7
6.9

70*
1-9
-6.1
121 UTEP  -2.7

5.0
7.7

65*
1-8
-6.2
122 Georgia State -1.2

5.1
6.3

110*
0-9
-6.3
123 Massachusetts -2.4

4.4
6.8

75*
1-8
-6.3
124 New Mexico St. -2.2

5.6
7.8

85*

1-9

-6.3
125 Miami (Ohio) -2.5

3.7
6.2

75*
0-9
-6.4

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