Sunday, October 27, 2013

College Football FBS Game Predictions for Week 10 2013, by SportPundit

Week 10 2013 College Football FBS Game Predictions by SportPundit 

Our stats for the season after Week 9 are 408-115 (78%) in calling the winner and 265-214-10 (55%) against the spread.

Below are our College Football Predictions for Week 10 2013 relying on YPPSYS, our Yards Per Play System and our FBS Ratings and Rankings of all 125 Teams after Week 9 of the 2013 Season.
What makes a good prognosticator? Confidence and/or Accuracy?
And how about keeping all those conference changes straight?

Caveat emptor (Buyer beware): We make this material available in good fun out of interest for the sport of college football. Please do not rely on our material to place bets or wagers of any kind. No one knows the exact outcome of a game or a season before it is played and that is what makes it so interesting. We disclaim any and all liability for the consequences of anyone relying in any way upon our postings, analysis, links or reasoning - for which we make no warranty of accuracy. May the best team win.  

YPPSYS means "yards per play system", as that is our main ranking component, based primarily on stats at cfbstats.com, but we also use schedule difficulty and conference rankings as based on calculations e.g. at Massey Ratings, although our own system of schedule difficulty prevails.

At YPPSYS, we regard a difference of one rating point to be worth about 7 points on the scoreboard, a calculation, of course, that is not absolute, given home field advantages, etc.

We calculate the home field advantage at an average of about 3 points, but this depends, and we are going to use e.g. Kambour stats on home field occasionally this week, because the standard 3-point home field advantage that we have been giving has not been helping us.

The betting lines ("odds" or "spread") for Week 10 used here were taken from the lines at ESPN Daily Lines (that page sometimes has erroneous plus or minus notation!) viz. Oddsshark used especially for correction, as of Sunday, October 27, 2013. If odds are missing, these are entered initially as "??" and are added later. Note that the lines can and often do change over time, but our predictions do not reflect later changes once we have selected odds here.


Wednesday, October 30, 2013

Cincinnati at Memphis
The Bearcats are favored over the Tigers by 3.5 points.
Our call: 24-23 for Memphis.

Thursday, October 31, 2013 (Halloween)

South Florida at Houston
The Cougars are favored over the Bulls by 14.5 points.
Our call: 37-16 for Houston.

Rice at North Texas
The Mean Green are favored over the Owls by 3.5 points.
Our call: 31-24 for North Texas.

Louisiana-Monroe (LA-Monroe, ULM) at Troy
The Trojans are favored over the Warhawks by 4 points.
Our call: 31-30 for Louisiana Monroe.

Arizona State at Washington State
The Sun Devils are favored over the Cougars by 12.5 points.
Our call: 34-27 for Arizona State.

Friday, November 1, 2013

USC at Oregon State
The Beavers are favored over the Trojans by 4.5 points.
Our call: 31-30 for Southern Cal. USC in past seasons has sometimes played terribly at Reser Stadium, the Oregon State home field. Who knows what will happen this year?

Saturday, November 2, 2013

Auburn at Arkansas
The Tigers are favored over the Razorbacks by 8 points.
Our call: 41-24 for Auburn.

Tennessee at Missouri
The Tigers are favored over the Volunteers by 13 points.
Our call: 35-21 for Missouri.

Virginia Tech at Boston College
The Hokies are favored over the Eagles by 4 points.
Our call: 24-21 for Virginia Tech.

Northern Illinois at Massachusetts
The Huskies are favored over the Minutemen by 23.5 points.
Our call: 44-17 for the Huskies.

Temple at Rutgers
The Scarlet Knights are favored over the Owls by 14.5 points.
Our call: 41-24 for Rutgers.

Illinois at Penn State
The Nittany Lions are favored over the Illini by 10 points.
Our call: 35-24 for Penn State.

Army at Air Force
The ?? are favored over the ?? by points.
Our call: 31-30 for Army. Our stats rank these teams about even. Here we looked at Kambour's stats.

Wisconsin at Iowa
The Badgers are favored over the Hawkeyes by 7.5 points.
Our call: 31-24 for Wisconsin.

Ohio State at Purdue
The Buckeyes are favored over the Boilermakers by 31 points.
Our call: 48-14 for Ohio State.

Mississippi State at South Carolina
The Gamecocks are favored over the Bulldogs by 13 points.
Our call: 38-24 for South Carolina.

North Carolina at North Carolina State
The Tar Heels are favored over the Wolfpack by 3.5 points.
Our call: 27-26 for NC State.

Wake Forest at Syracuse
The Orange are favored over the Demon Deacons by 3.5 points.
Our call: 24-23 for Wake Forest.

Southern Miss at Marshall
The Thundering Herd is favored over the Golden Eagles by 28 points.
Our call: 38-14 for Marshall.

Middle Tennessee at UAB
The Blue Raiders are favored over the Blazers by 3.5 points.
Our call: 34-24 for Middle Tennessee.

Western Kentucky at Georgia State
The Hilltoppers are favored over the Golden Panthers by 18 points.
Our call: 37-23 for Western Kentucky.

Arizona at California
The Wildcats are favored over the Golden Bears by 14.5 points.
Our call: 38-21 for Arizona.

Georgia at Florida
The Bulldogs are favored over the Gators by 2.5 points.
Our call: 27-24 for Georgia.

Minnesota at Indiana
The Hoosiers are favored over the Golden Gophers by 9.5 points.
Our call: 34-27 for Indiana.

Navy at Notre Dame
The Fighting Irish are favored over the Midshipmen by 17.5 points.
Our call: 38-21 for Notre Dame.

Michigan at Michigan State
The Spartans are favored over the Wolverines by 5 points.
Our call: 21-20 for the Wolverines.

Northwestern at Nebraska
The Huskers are favored over the Wildcats by 7.5 points.
Our call: 34-27 for the Cornhuskers.

UTSA at Tulsa
The Golden Hurricane is favored over the Roadrunners by 3.5 points.
Our call: 27-24 for Texas San Antonio.

Kansas at Texas
The Longhorns are favored over the Jayhawks by 27 points.
Our call: 38-14 for Texas.

Clemson at Virginia
The Tigers are favored over the Cavaliers by 17 points.
Our call: 35-14 for Clemson.

Kent State at Akron
The Golden Flashes are favored over the Zips by 2.5 points.
Our call: 27-24 for Akron.

Iowa State at Kansas State
The Wildcats are favored over the Cyclones by 14.5 points.
Our call: 37-20 for Kansas State.

West Virginia at TCU
The Horned Frogs are favored over the Moutaineers by 13.5 points.
Our call: 31-21 for TCU.

Hawaii at Utah State
The Aggies are favored over the Warriors by 21.5 points.
Our call: 34-17 for Utah State.

San Jose State at UNLV
The Spartans are favored over the Rebels by 3 points.
Our call: 31-30 for UNLV.

Texas State at Idaho
The Bobcats are favored over the Vandals by 11.5 points.
Our call: 31-21 for Texas State.

New Mexico State at Louisiana-Lafayette
The Ragin' Cajuns are favored over the Aggies by 28 points.
Our call: 48-21 for LA Lafayette.

Tulane at Florida Atlantic
The Green Wave is favored over the Owls by 3 points.
Our call: 24-23 for Florida Atlantic.

East Carolina at Florida International
The Pirates are favored over the Golden Panthers by 21 points.
Our call: 34-10 for East Carolina.

Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech
The Yellow Jackets are favored over the Panthers by 9.5 points.
Our call: 34-27 for Georgia Tech.

Oklahoma State at Texas Tech
The Red Raiders are favored over the Cowboys by 1.5 points.
Our call: 31-28 for Texas Tech.

Eastern Michigan at Toledo
The Rockets are favored over the Eagles by 28.5 points.
Our call: 45-14 for Toledo.

Arkansas State at South Alabama
The Jaguars are favored over the Red Wolves by 3.5 points.
Our call: 37-27 for South Alabama.

Colorado at UCLA
The Bruins are favored over the Buffaloes by 26.5 points.
Our call: 41-14 for UCLA.

Alabama State at Kentucky
The Wildcats are favored over the Hornets by ?? points.
Our call: 47-7 for Kentucky.

New Mexico at San Diego State
The Aztecs are favored over the Lobos by 16 points.
Our call: 41-24 for San Diego State.

Boise State at Colorado State
The Broncos are favored over the Rams by 7.5 points.
Our call: 34-27 for Boise State.

Miami of Florida at Florida State
The Seminoles are favored over the Hurricanes by 21.5 points.
Our call: 45-21 for Florida State.

UTEP at Texas A&M
The Aggies are favored over the Miners by 45 points.
Our call: 63-17 for Texas A&M. The top and the bottom of FBS meet. Just to show how difficult a game like this can be to call, we note that we rate Texas A&M at +0.1 rating points and UTEP at -5.7 rating points, a difference of 5.8 rating points, each of which is worth ca. 7 scoreboard points if we stick purely to our system, so 7 x 5.8 = 40.6. Kambour rates the Aggie home field advantage at 4.1420 points so that 40.6 plus 4.1420 = 44.7420 as our calculated spread using our system. The line is 45 points. Do we go above or below it? Texas A&M could roll up a big lead early and then let reserves play. Nobody really knows. Since the Miners are the weakest team the Aggies play this year, but are capable of scoring points, one might assume the score will be high, but you simply do not know.

Nevada at Fresno State
The Bulldogs are favored over the Wolf Pack by 21.5 points.
Our call: 41-24 for Fresno State.



After Week 9, the 2013 FBS College Football Rankings by SportPundit: Five Rule the Roost

Below are the 2013 FBS College Football Rankings after WEEK 9 of play, by SportPundit.

Note that we do not have the time to do this every week, but those interested can update the stats for their use on their own in coming weeks as many changes will still surely take place this early in the season. The yards per play stats are likely to be more useful when a good number of representative games have been played in the course of a season.

Please read the indented material unless you are already familiar with it.
Caveat emptor (Buyer beware): We make this material available in good fun out of interest for the sport of college football. Please do not rely on our material to place bets or wagers of any kind. No one knows the exact outcome of a game or a season before it is played and that is what makes it so interesting. We disclaim any and all liability for the consequences of anyone relying in any way upon our postings, analysis, links or reasoning - for which we make no warranty of accuracy. May the best team win.

These early season ratings and rankings are based in part on our primary measure of "net average yards per play advantage" (NAYPPA), a specific predictive calculation which we were the first to implement, minus a calculation based on the schedule difficulty and a penalty for losses. Because of FCS scheduling, gauging schedule difficulty is always an approximation!

Yards per play stats are taken from cfbstats.com. In recent years, an average FBS team gained ca. 5.4 yards per play on offense and allowed ca. 5.4 yards per play on defense, a statistic that holds fairly constant.
 
Massey Ratings schedule difficulty ratings were sourced in part, but we also use subjective judgments and adjustments to handle schedule difficulty, whereby -- for these rankings and ratings --  from the NAYPPA data, we subtract .01 times 2x the schedule difficulty up to 50, and .01 times 3x the schedule difficulty for 55 and up. We subtract .2 for every loss. The system is a bit unwieldy for calculation, but we have to account for strong teams beating up on weak ones.

As a measuring stick, note that the best college teams of all time had a NAYPPA of not greater than 3.0 for an entire season. Schedules have become easier recently, e.g. through FCS scheduling, and Boise State had a 3.5 season NAYPPA three years ago but lost a game. According to the yards-per-play standard, last year's Alabama team would have been ranked among the best teams ever, had they not lost to Texas A&M. But they did lose.

See Best Teams Ever: (top three as examples below)
We repeat that in past recent years, an average FBS team gained ca. 5.4 yards per play on offense and allowed ca. 5.4 yards per play on defense, a statistic that has held fairly constant.

THE 2013 SportPundit & YPPSYS TEAM RANKINGS AND RATINGS after WEEK 9

Team
Rank
AFTER
Week
- 9 -
2013
by 
Sport
Pundit
AFTER
Week
 - 9 -
2013

* =
adjustment

NAYPPA
net average yards per play advantage offense over defense based on stats from cfbstats.com
(our calculation) 


yards
per
play offense

yards
per
play defense


Schedule difficulty
*plus or minus  subjective adjustments*
 (calculation based in part on Massey Ratings AND also a lot on our own past ratings and rankings)


W-L
(won
-loss)
record
2013

YPPSYS
Team
Rating NAYPPA
minus .01 x
2x schedule difficulty up to 50 minus 3x schedule difficulty thereafter
minus .2 for every loss.

Florida State
4.0

8.2
4.2

70*
7-0
+1.9
2 Oregon 3.7

8.1
4.4

70*
8-0
+1.7

Alabama
2.4

7.2
4.8

40*
8-0
+1.6
4 Baylor
4.8


9.0
4.2


110*

7-0

+1.5

5 Ohio State 1.9

6.9
5.0

50*
8-0
+0.9
6Stanford 1.5

6.2
4.7

50*
7-1
+0.3
7 LSU 2.3

7.4
5.1

60*
7-2
+0.1
8 Auburn 1.3

7.0
5.7

50*
7-1
+0.1
9 Texas A&M 1.1

7.5
6.4

30*

6-2

+0.1 

10 Missouri 1.6

6.8
5.2

65*
7-1
-0.6
11 Mississippi 0.6

6.0
5.4

30*
5-3
-0.6
12 Miami (Florida) 2.4

7.3
4.9

100*
7-0
-0.6
13 Clemson 0.5

5.9
5.4

45*
7-1
-0.6
14 Georgia 1.0

6.6
5.6

50*
4-3
-0.6
15 South Carolina
0.9


6.4
5.5

55*
6-2
-0.6
16 UCF 1.4

6.7
5.3

55*
6-1
-0.6
17 Louisville 3.1

7.5
4.4

115*
7-1
-0.6
18 Oklahoma1.0

5.9
4.9

55*
7-1
-0.7
19 Wisconsin
3.1


7.5
4.4


115*

5-2

-0.7

20 UCLA 1.0

6.0
5.0

55*
5-2
-0.7
21 Michigan 1.3

6.4
5.1

60*
6-1
-0.7
22 Notre Dame 0.8

5.9
5.1

55*
6-2
-1.0
23 Arizona State
0.9


6.3
5.4


55*
5-2
-1.0
24 Florida0.3

4.9
4.6

40*
4-3
-1.1
25 USC 0.8

5.9
5.1

55*
5-3
-1.3
26 Texas Tech 1.6

6.2
4.6

95*
7-1
-1.3
27 Michigan State 1.3

4.9
3.6

80*
7-1
-1.3
28 Washington 1.1

6.0
4.9

60*
5-3
-1.3
29 Virginia Tech 0.8

4.8
4.0

55*
6-2
-1.3
30 BYU 0.8

5.7
4.9

60*
6-2
-1.4
31 Houston 1.1

6.5
5.4

80*
6-1
-1.5
32 Texas 0.5

5.9
5.4

55*
5-2
-1.6
33 Oregon State 0.6

6.3
5.7

60*
6-2
-1.6
34 Oklahoma St. 1.2

5.8
4.6

85*
6-1
-1.7
35 North. Illinois 1.3

6.8
5.5

100*
8-0
-1.7
36 Nebraska 0.4

6.2
5.8

60*
5-2
-1.8
37 Utah 0.7

5.9
5.2

55*
4-4
-1.8
38 Vanderbilt 0.3

5.9
5.6

55*
4-4
-1.8
39 Tennessee -0.7

5.4
6.1

15*
4-4
-1.8
40 Penn State 0.0

5.4
5.4

55*
4-3
-1.8
41 Arizona 1.2

6.1
4.9

85*
5-2

-1.8
42 Kansas State 0.8

6.2
5.4

60*
3-4
-1.8
43 Iowa
0.6


5.4
4.8

60*
5-3
-1.8
44 TCU 0.1

5.0
4.9

50*
3-5
-1.9
45 Fresno State 0.7

6.0
5.3

90*
7-0
-2.0
46 Georgia Tech 0.7

6.1
5.4

70*
5-3
-2.0

47 Boise State 0.7


6.0
5.3

70*
5-3
-2.0
48 Utah State
1.1


5.9
4.8


80*

4-4

-2.1

49 Washington St. -0.4

5.6
6.0

50*
4-4
-2.2
50 Indiana 0.7

6.7
6.0

75*
3-4
-2.2
51 East Carolina 0.8

5.5
4.7

85*
5-2
-2.2
52 Mississippi St.
0.8


6.3
5.5


80*

4-3

-2.2

53 Toledo 0.6

6.1
5.5

75*
5-3
-2.2
54 Boston College -0.4

5.6
6.0

55*
3-4
-2.2
55  Rutgers 0.0

5.6
5.6

55*
4-3
-2.4
56 Northwestern 0.3

5.7
5.4

65*
4-4
-2.4
57 Pittsburgh 0.5

5.8
5.3

75*
4-3
-2.4
58 Duke 0.7

5.9
5.2

90*
6-2
-2.4
59 Wake Forest -0.3

4.8
5.1

55*
5-3
-2.4
60 Syracuse 0.0

5.5
5.5

60*
3-4
-2.6
61 Ball State 0.9

6.4
5.5

110*
8-1
-2.6
62 Arkansas -0.1

5.6
5.7

55*
3-5
-2.6
63 Ohio 0.8

6.2
5.4

100*

6-2

-2.6

64 Marshall  1.0

5.5
4.5

100*
4-3
-2.6
65 Bowling Green 0.7

6.3
5.6

90*
5-3
-2.6
66 North Carolina -0.1

5.6
5.7

55*
2-5
-2.6
67 San Diego St. 0.3

5.6
5.3

70*
3-4
-2.6
68 Minnesota -0.2

5.4
5.6

70*
6-2
-2.7
69 Kentucky -0.7

5.6
6.3

40*
1-6
-2.7
70 Maryland 1.2

6.3
5.1

110*
5-3
-2.7
71 West Virginia -0.8

5.4
6.2

50*
3-5
-2.8
72 Cincinnati 1.5

6.3
4.8

130*
5-2
-2.8
73 Louis.-Lafayette 0.4

6.1
5.7

95*
5-2
-2.8
74 Illinois -0.5

6.0
6.5

55*
3-4
-2.8
75  Buffalo -0.4

5.2
5.6

70*
6-2
-2.9
76 Rice -0.1

5.5
5.6

80*
6-2
-2.9
77 South Alabama 0.2

6.1
5.9

80*
3-4
-3.0
78 SMU 0.0

5.8
5.8

75*
3-4
-3.0
79 San Jose St. 0.6

6.4
5.8

100*
4-3
-3.0

80 Navy 0.0

5.6
5.6

80*
4-3
-3.0
81 Virginia -0.9

4.6
5.5

50*
2-6
-3.1
82 Memphis 0.3

5.0
4.7

80*
1-5
-3.1
83 N.C. State -0.5

5.2
5.7

55*
3-4
-3.1
84 Tulane -0.6

4.5
5.1

70*
6-2
-3.1
85 North Texas -0.2

5.5
5.7

80*
5-3
-3.2
86 Iowa State -1.3

4.7
6.0

40*
1-6
-3.3
87 UTSA 0.0

5.9
5.9

75*
3-5
-3.3
88 Mid. Tennessee -0.5

5.0
5.5

70*
4-4
-3.4
89 UNLV -0.5

5.5
6.0

80*
5-3
-3.5
90 California -1.8

5.2
7.0

20*
1-7
-3.6
91  Florida Atlantic  -0.8

4.9
5.7

55*
2-6
-3.6
92 West. Kentucky 0.8

6.5
5.7

120*
4-4
-3.6
93 Colorado -0.5

5.5
6.0

80*
3-4
-3.7
94 Tulsa -0.2

5.0
5.2

85*
2-5
-3.8
95 Colorado State 0.1

6.1
6.0

100*
4-4
-3.8
96 Arkansas State 0.0

6.0
6.0

100*
3-4
-3.8

97 Troy -0.4

6.1
6.5

95*
5-3
-3.8
98 Louis.-Monroe 
-0.9


4.8
5.7


70*

4-4

-3.8
99 Texas State -0.1

5.1
5.2

105*
5-3
-3.8
100 Wyoming 0.6

6.6
6.0

120*
4-4
-3.8
101 Nevada -1.9

5.2
7.1

50*
3-5
-3.9
102 South Florida -1.4

4.2
5.6

55*
2-5
-4.1
103 Purdue -1.4

4.3
5.7

55*
1-6
-4.1
104  Cent. Michigan  -1.0

5.2
6.2

75*
3-5
-4.1
105 Hawaii -0.6

4.9
5.5

70*
0-7
-4.1
106 Air Force -1.1

5.3
6.4

60*
1-7
-4.3
107 Temple -1.1

5.5
6.6

60*
1-7
-4.3

108 Army -0.9

5.7
6.6

85*
3-5
-4.3
109 Akron -0.9

4.9
5.8

65*
2-7
-4.3
110  Kansas -1.6

4.2
5.8

65*
2-5
-4.4
111 Louisiana Tech 0.2

5.3
5.1

120*
3-5
-4.4
112 Kent State -1.4

5.3
6.7


65*
2-7
-4.6
113 Connecticut -1.5

4.3
5.8

55*
0-7
-4.6
114 New Mexico -0.7

6.4
7.1

95*
2-5
-4.6
115 UAB
-0.7


6.0
6.7


100*

2-5

-4.7

116   West. Michigan -1.1

4.7
5.8

70*

1-8
-4.7
117 Fl. Int'l FIU  -2.4

3.7
6.1

60*
1-6
-5.3
118 Southern Miss -1.1

4.4
5.5

100*
0-7
-5.4
119 Idaho -2.4

4.6
7.0

60*
1-7
-5.6
120 UTEP  -2.1

5.5
7.6

80*
1-6
-5.7
121 Georgia State -1.4

5.0
6.4

100*
0-8
-6.0
122 Massachusetts -2.1

4.4
6.5

85*
1-7
-6.0
123 East. Michigan  -2.4

5.3
7.7

80*
1-7
-6.2
124 New Mexico St. -2.2

5.4
7.6

85*

1-7

-6.2
125 Miami (Ohio) -2.4

3.7
6.1

80*
0-8
-6.4

See our 2013 Preseason Rankings Here.

Harvard's Rogoff Says Economy Finds Itself in a Golf-like Sandtrap: You Have to Swing Hard to Get the Ball Out

Part of the answer for U.S. economic problems is surely generous "planned" inflation. See the New York Times at In Fed and Out, Many Now Think Inflation Helps.

Week 9 2013 College Football FBS Game Prediction RESULTS by SportPundit

Week 9 2013 College Football FBS Game Prediction RESULTS by SportPundit 

This 9th week of college football we were 42-13 in calling the winner and 32-20-3 against the spread.

Our stats for the season after Week 9 are 408-115 (78%) in calling the winner and 265-214-10 (55%) against the spread.

Below are our College Football Prediction RESULTS for Week 9 2013 relying on YPPSYS, our Yards Per Play System and our FBS Ratings and Rankings of all 125 Teams after Week 8 of the 2013 Season.

Skip the indented material if you are already familiar with it. 
What makes a good prognosticator? Confidence and/or Accuracy?
And how about keeping all those conference changes straight?
Caveat emptor (Buyer beware): We make this material available in good fun out of interest for the sport of college football. Please do not rely on our material to place bets or wagers of any kind. No one knows the exact outcome of a game or a season before it is played and that is what makes it so interesting. We disclaim any and all liability for the consequences of anyone relying in any way upon our postings, analysis, links or reasoning - for which we make no warranty of accuracy. May the best team win
YPPSYS means "yards per play system", as that is our main ranking component, based primarily on stats at cfbstats.com, but we also use schedule difficulty and conference rankings as based on calculations e.g. at Massey Ratings. At YPPSYS, we regard a difference of one rating point to be worth about 7 points on the scoreboard, a calculation, of course, that is not absolute, given home field advantages, etc. We calculate the home field advantage at an average of about 3 points.
The betting lines ("odds" or "spread") used here were taken from the lines at ESPN Daily Lines - Week 9 as of Monday, October 21, 2013. Missing odds, entered initially as "??" were added later. Lines can change over time, but our predictions do not reflect such later changes once we have selected odds here.

Tuesday, October 22, 2013

Louisiana Lafayette /ULL, LA-Lafayette) at Arkansas State
The Ragin Cajuns were favored over the Red Wolves by 3 points.
Our call: 34-30 for Lousiana Lafayette.
Result: The Cajuns made it five wins in a row with a 23-7 victory over Arkansas State, outgaining the Red Wolves 470 to 168 yards.
This week we are 1-0 in calling the winner and 1-0 against the spread.  

Thursday, October 24, 2013

Kentucky at Mississippi State
The Bulldogs were favored over the Wildcats by 10.5 points.
Our call: 34-31 for Mississippi State.
Result: The Bulldogs held on for a 28-22 victory.
This week we are 2-0 in calling the winner and 2-0 against the spread.  

Marshall at Middle Tennessee State
The Thundering Herd was favored over the Blue Raiders by  10.5 points.
Our call: 24-20 for Marshall.
Result: The Thundering Herd came back from a 45-35 deficit in the fourth quarter to lead 49-45 but lost the game on a 9-yard TD pass from Logan Kilgore to Tavarres Jefferson as time ran out 51-49. The Blue Raiders outgained Marshall 585 to 448 yards as Kilgore had 4 TD passes to Rakeem Cato's 3.
This week we are 2-1 in calling the winner and 3-0 against the spread.

Friday, October 25, 2013

Boise State at BYU (Brigham Young University)
The Cougars were favored over the Broncos by 7.5 points.
Our call: 27-23 for BYU.
Result: Boise State turned the ball over 4 times, BYU none, and that was the ball game as the Cougars won 37-20.
This week we are 3-1 in calling the winner and 3-1 against the spread.


Saturday, October 26, 2013

Wake Forest at Miami of Florida
The Hurricanes were favored over the Demon Deacons by 21 points.
Our call: 37-17 for Miami.
The Hurricanes remained unbeaten by downing Wake Forest 24-21 on a Duke Johnson touchdown run in the final minute. 
This week we are 4-1 in calling the winner and 4-1 against the spread.

Oklahoma State at Iowa State
The Cowboys were favored over the Cyclones by 13.5 points.
Our call: 27-23 for Oklahoma State.
Result: The Cowboys led only 28-20 at halftime but then lassoed the Cyclones after the intermission to win easily 58-27
This week we are 5-1 in calling the winner and 4-2 against the spread.

Louisville at South Florida
The Cardinals were favored over the Bulls by 19.5 points.
Our call: 37-14 for Louisville.
The Bulls were no match for the Cardinals, who prevailed 34-3, outgaining South Florida 485 to 133 yards. 
This week we are 6-1 in calling the winner and 5-2 against the spread.

Connecticut at UCF (Central Florida)
The Knights were favored over the Huskies by 22.5 points.
Our call: 44-14 for UCF.
Result: UCF powered past the Huskies 62-17 after leading 45-10 at the half.
This week we are 7-1 in calling the winner and 6-2 against the spread.

Nebraska at Minnesota
The Cornhuskers were favored over the Golden Gophers by 10.5 points.
Our call: 34-27 for the Huskers.
Result: Nebraska was outgained 430 to 328 yards and lost 34-23. Tommie Frazier has it right. As it now stands, the Huskers have no chance of regaining their past glory as a dominant football team, but we have been saying that for years. The offensive and defensive systems are outdated. Optimally, the Husker head coach should be a proven champion, a top-notch recruiter, and someone who knows how to win. If you can, you also want someone with a Nebraska background. Craig Bohl of North Dakota State, who was let go as defensive coordinator by former Husker coach F.S. (who brought in Pelini) has strong ties to Lincoln and is considered a candidate by some. Whether Bohl would want to walk into the lion's den at Nebraska is a different question. Bohl's recently formulated and successful Pocket Change Theory is worth reading. One sees via that theory that Bohl has learned how to be a champion. Bohl apparently passes that wisdom on to his staff and players. My own father's favorite motto was "Times change, but people do not". To my surprise, Bohl is quoted at Football Scoop as saying: "Times change, people don't. The culture around them has changed," he said. "They want to be loved, encouraged, held accountable and have consistency."
This week we are 7-2 in calling the winner and 7-2 against the spread.

Houston at Rutgers
The Scarlet Knights were favored over the Cougars by 7.5 points.
Our call: 27-26 for Rutgers.
Result: The Cougars pulverized the favored Scarlet Knights 49-14, forcing 6 turnovers, sacking the quarterback 4 times,and outgaining Rutgers 609 to 420 yards, as Houston freshman QB John O'Korn threw for 364 yards and 5 touchdowns.
This week we are 7-3 in calling the winner and 8-2 against the spread.

Ball State at Akron
The Cardinals were favored over the Zips by 11 points.
Our call: 31-24 for Ball State.
Result: The Cardinals' Keith Wenning threw for 5 TDs in topping the Zips 42-24, although Akron outgained Ball State 437 to 434, but had 3 turnovers.
This week we are 8-3 in calling the winner and 8-3 against the spread.

Northwestern at Iowa
The Hawkeyes were favored over the Wildcats by 4.5 points.
Our call: 30-23 for Iowa.
Result: The Hawkeyes pulled out the win in overtime, 17-10.
This week we are 9-3 in calling the winner and 9-3 against the spread.

Vanderbilt at Texas A&M
The Aggies were favored over the Commodores by 17 points.
Our call: 41-27 for Texas A&M.
Result: Johnny Manziel threw for 4 TDs as the Aggies throttled the Commodores with surprising ease 56-24, outgaining Vandy 556 to 330 yards.
This week we are 10-3 in calling the winner and 9-4 against the spread.

Georgia Tech at Virginia
The Yellow Jackets were favored over the Cavaliers by 10 points.
Our call: 27-24 for Georgia Tech.
Result: The Yellow Jackets beat the Cavs 35-25.
This week we are 11-3 in calling the winner and 9-4-1 against the spread.

Pittsburgh at Navy
The Panthers were favored over the Midshipmen by 5.5 points.
Our call: 34-28 for Pittsburgh.
Result: The Midshipmen won 24-21 on a field goal with time expiring.
This week we are 11-4 in calling the winner and 9-5-1 against the spread.

Miami of Ohio at Ohio
The Bobcats were favored over the Redhawks by 25 points.
Our call: 41-14 for Ohio.
Result: The Bobcats beat the Redhawks 41-16.
This week we are 12-4 in calling the winner and 9-5-2 against the spread.

Toledo at Bowling Green
The Falcons were favored over the Rockets by 4 points.
Our call: 31-30 for Bowling Green.
Result: The Rockets won against the Falcons 28-25.
This week we are 12-5 in calling the winner and 10-5-2 against the spread.

Western Michigan at Massachusetts
The Minutemen were favored over the Broncos by 3 points.
Our call: 28-23 for Western Michigan.
Result: The Broncos won 31-30 after UMass scored with 22 seconds left to play in the game but then went for two and the win, but the passed failed. 
This week we are 13-5 in calling the winner and 11-5-2 against the spread.

Temple at SMU (Southern Methodist University)
The Mustangs were favored over the Owls by 11 points.
Our call: 34-21 for SMU.
Result: In a wild game in which SMU gained 728 yards and the Owls 593 yards, the Mustangs came out on top over Temple 59-49.
This week we are 14-5 in calling the winner and 11-6-2 against the spread.

Tennessee at Alabama
The Crimson Tide was favored over the Volunteers by 28 points.
Our call: 41-16 for Alabama.
Result: The Tide rolled to a 35-0 halftime lead and won comfortably over the Vols 45-10.
This week we are 15-5 in calling the winner and 11-7-2 against the spread.

North Carolina State at Florida State
The Seminoles were favored over the Wolfpack by 29 points.
Our call: 45-10 for Florida State.
Result: The Seminoles raced to a 42-0 halftime lead and coasted home 49-17 over N.C. State.
This week we are 16-5 in calling the winner and 12-7-2 against the spread.

Clemson at Maryland
The Tigers were favored over the Terrapins by 13 points.
Our call: 35-23 for Clemson.
The Tigers survived against the Terps 40-27.
This week we are 17-5 in calling the winner and 12-7-3 against the spread.

Duke at Virginia Tech
The Hokies were favored over the Blue Devils by 13.5 points.
Our call: 31-14 for Virginia Tech.
Result: The Blue Devils upset the Hokies 13-10 in spite of being outgained 387 to 198 yards.
This week we are 17-6 in calling the winner and 12-8-3 against the spread.

Eastern Michigan at Northern Illinois
The Huskies were favored over the Eagles by 30.5 points.
Our call: 50-17 for Northern Illinois.
Result: The Huskies remained undefeated with a 59-20 romp over the Eagles.
This week we are 18-6 in calling the winner and 13-8-3 against the spread.

Boston College at North Carolina
The Tar Heels were favored over the Eagles by 7.5 points.
Our call: 27-26 for Boston College.
Result: The Tar Heels ended a four-game slump to pounce on the Eagles 34-10.
This week we are 18-7 in calling the winner and 13-9-3 against the spread.

UTEP (University of Texas El Paso) at Rice
The Owls were favored over the Miners by 17.5 points.
Our call: 40-21 for Rice.
Result: The Owls flew to a convincing 45-7 victory over the Miners
This week we are 19-7 in calling the winner and 14-9-3 against the spread.

Michigan State at Illinois
The Spartans were favored over the Illini by 11.5 points.
Our call: 27-23 for Michigan State.
Result: The Spartans not only shined in their defensive prowess but also put on an unexpected offensive show in winning 42-3 against the Illini.
This week we are 20-7 in calling the winner and 14-10-3 against the spread.

Buffalo at Kent State
The game was seen as even.
Our call: 28-23 for Buffalo.
Result: The Bulls won their sixth straight game, 41-21 over the Golden Flashes.
This week we are 21-7 in calling the winner and 15-10-3 against the spread.

Tulsa at Tulane
The Golden Hurricane was favored over the Green Wave by 2.5 points.
Our call: 27-20 for Tulane.
Result: The Green Wave emerged victorious over Tulsa 14-7.
This week we are 22-7 in calling the winner and 16-10-3 against the spread.

West Virginia at Kansas State
The Wildcats were favored over the Mountaineers by 10 points.
Our call: 34-27 for Kansas State.
Result: The Wildcats trailed 9-7 at the half and 12-7 in the 3rd quarter but scored 3 TDs in the 4th quarter on their way to a 35-12 win over West Virginia.
This week we are 23-7 in calling the winner and 16-11-3 against the spread.

Utah at USC (Southern Cal)
The Trojans were favored over the Utes by 6.5 points.
Our call: 27-26 for USC.
Result: The USC Trojans shut down the Utes in a 19-3 win.
This week we are 24-7 in calling the winner and 16-12-3 against the spread.

Troy at Western Kentucky
The Hilltoppers were favored over the Trojans by 9 points.
Our call: 38-30 for Western Kentucky.
Result: The favored Hilltoppers outgained Troy in yardage 532 to 397 yards but lost on the scoreboard 32-26
This week we are 24-8 in calling the winner and 17-12-3 against the spread.

Texas Tech at Oklahoma
The Sooners were favored over the Red Raiders by 6.5 points.
Our call: 31-30 for Texas Tech.
Result: The Sooners outgained the Red Raiders 528 to 448 yards in winning 38-30.
This week we are 24-9 in calling the winner and 17-13-3 against the spread.

Notre Dame at Air Force
The Fighting Irish were favored over the Falcons by 19.5 points.
Our call: 37-17 for Notre Dame.
Result: The Fighting Irish dominated the Falcons 45-10.
This week we are 25-9 in calling the winner and 18-13-3 against the spread.

UAB at UTSA (University of Texas San Antonio)
The Roadrunners were favored over the Blazers by 4.5 points.
Our call: 35-28 for UTSA.
Result: The Roadrunners topped the Blazers 52-31.
This week we are 26-9 in calling the winner and 19-13-3 against the spread.

Louisiana Tech at FIU (Florida International University)
The Bulldogs were favored over the Golden Panthers by 5.5 points.
Our call: 27-24 for Louisiana Tech.
Result: The Bulldogs beat FIU 23-7.
This week we are 27-9 in calling the winner and 19-14-3 against the spread.

UNLV at Nevada
The Wolf Pack was favored over the Rebels by 6 points.
Our call: 31-30 for Nevada.
Result: The Rebels edged Nevada in a close inner-State rivalry 27-22.
This week we are 27-10 in calling the winner and 20-14-3 against the spread.

UCLA at Oregon
The Ducks were favored over the Bruins by 21.5 points.
Our call: 41-27 for Oregon.
Result: The Ducks put the Bruins away with 28 unanswered 2nd half points, 21 of those in the 4th quarter, to win 42-14.
This week we are 28-10 in calling the winner and 20-15-3 against the spread.

South Carolina at Missouri
The Tigers were favored over the Gamecocks by 3 points.
Our call: 38-27 for Missouri.
Result: Mizzou blew a 17-0 lead after three quarters as a knee-sprain hobbled and thus benched Connor Shaw came in for starter Dylan Thompson at QB to lead the Gamecocks to a come from behind double overtime 27-24 victory over the Tigers. The game shows again how important an exceptional quarterback can be to team success in football.
This week we are 28-11 in calling the winner and 20-16-3 against the spread.

Baylor at Kansas
The Bears were favored over the Jayhawks by 36 points.
Our call: 52-17 for Baylor.
Result: An overpowering offense led the Bears to 38-0 lead at halftime, as Baylor cruised to a 59-14 win as the Bears gained 743 yards. 
This week we are 29-11 in calling the winner and 20-17-3 against the spread.

Furman at LSU (Louisiana State University)
The Tigers were favored over the Paladins by 47 points.
Our call: 51-7 for LSU.
Result: The Paladins put up a battle in the first half, trailing only 20-16, but it was all LSU in the second half, as the Tigers pulled away with a 48-16 win.
This week we are 30-11 in calling the winner and 21-17-3 against the spread.

Wyoming at San Jose State
The Spartans were favored over the Cowboys by 6 points.
Our call: 37-28 for San Jose State.
Result: The Spartans came back from 23-7 and 30-14 deficits to win the game on a TD in the last seconds 51-44.
This week we are 31-11 in calling the winner and 22-17-3 against the spread.

South Alabama at Texas State
The Jaguars were favored over the Bobcats by 2.5 points.
Our call: 27-24 for South Alabama.
Result:After the Jaguars had gone into the lead 31-30 with 1 1/2 minutes to play, the Bobcats came back for the game-winning field goal with seconds on the clock to win 33-31.
This week we are 31-12 in calling the winner and 22-18-3 against the spread.

Georgia State at Louisiana-Monroe (ULM, LA-Monroe)
The Warhawks were favored over the Panthers by 11.5 points.
Our call: 34-20 for LA-Monroe.
Result: The Warhawks won 38-10 over winles Georgia State.
This week we are 32-12 in calling the winner and 23-18-3 against the spread.

North Texas at Southern Miss
The Mean Green were favored over the Golden Eagles by 10.5 points.
Our call: 31-20 for North Texas.
Result: The Mean Green led 41-7 at the half and polished off winless Southern Miss 55-14.
This week we are 33-12 in calling the winner and 24-18-3 against the spread.

Florida Atlantic at Auburn
The Tigers were favored over the  Owls by 24.5 points.
Our call: 42-13 for Auburn.
Result: The Owls were no match for the Tigers, as Auburn prevailed 45-10.
This week we are 34-12 in calling the winner and 25-18-3 against the spread.

Idaho at Mississippi
The Rebels were favored over the Vandals by 41 points.
Our call: 48-10 for Ole MIss.
Result: The Rebels crushed Idaho 59-14.
This week we are 35-12 in calling the winner and 25-19-3 against the spread.

Texas at TCU
The Horned Frogs were favored over the Longhorns by 1.5 points.
Our call: 24-23 for Texas.
Result: The Longhorns quashed the Horned Frogs 30-7, as Texas continued to win with Case McCoy at quarterback.
This week we are 36-12 in calling the winner and 26-19-3 against the spread.

Penn State at Ohio State
The Buckeyes were favored over the Nittany Lions by 14.5 points.
Our call: 35-17 for Ohio State.
Result: The Buckeyes demolished the Nittany Lions 63-14, as Ohio State outgained Penn State 688 to 357 yards.
This week we are 37-12 in calling the winner and 27-19-3 against the spread.

Arizona at Colorado
The Wildcats were favored over the Buffaloes by 15 points.
Our call: 31-24 for Arizona.
Result: The Wildcats outgained Colorado 676 to 347 yards in winning 44-20.
This week we are 38-12 in calling the winner and 27-20-3 against the spread.

Abilene Christian at New Mexico State
The Aggies were favored over the Wildcats by 6 points.
Our call: 38-31 for Abilene Christian.
Result: The Aggies trailed 22-21 at the half, but came in the 2nd half to pull off the win 34-29.
This week we are 38-13 in calling the winner and 28-20-3 against the spread.

Stanford at Oregon State
The Cardinal was favored over the Beavers by 5 points.
Our call: 34-24 for Stanford.
Result: The Cardinal was outgained 288 to 273 yards but win the game on the scoreboard 20-12, as Stanford's Tyler Gaffney ran for 145 yards and 3 TDs.
This week we are 39-13 in calling the winner and 29-20-3 against the spread.

Fresno State at San Diego State
The Bulldogs were favored over the Aztecs by 9.5 points.
Our call: 30-27 for Fresno State.
Result: The Bulldogs pulled out the victory in overtime 35-28 to maintain their good chances of pulling off an undefeated season. Only San Jose State in their last regular-season game would seem to have a legitimate shot at beating them, as they otherwise face weaker teams in Nevada, Wyoming and New Mexico.
This week we are 40-13 in calling the winner and 30-20-3 against the spread.

California at Washington
The Huskies were favored over the Golden Bears by 28 points.
Our call: 41-24 for Washington.
Result: The Huskies beat the Golden Bears 41-17.
This week we are 41-13 in calling the winner and 31-20-3 against the spread.
  Sunday, October 27, 2013

Colorado State at Hawaii
The Rams were favored over the Warriors by 5.5 points.
Our call: 31-24 for Colorado State.
Result: The Rams led 35-17 at the half and then held off a Hawaii comeback to win 35-28.
This week we are 42-13 in calling the winner and 32-20-3 against the spread.


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