Monday, October 21, 2013

Law Review Criticism May Be Justified But Look At The Rubbish Being Written In Peer-Reviewed Journals In Other Professions

Law reviews are severely criticized at Law Scholarship’s Lackluster Reviews, but you have to examine by way of comparison the masses of rubbish published in the crony-reviewed journals in the other professions.

Week 9 2013 College Football FBS Game Predictions by SportPundit

Week 9 2013 College Football FBS Game Predictions by SportPundit 

Our stats for the season after Week 8 are 366-102 (78%) in calling the winner and 233-194-7 (55%) against the spread.

Below are our College Football Predictions for Week 9 2013 relying on YPPSYS, our Yards Per Play System and our FBS Ratings and Rankings of all 125 Teams after Week 8 of the 2013 Season.

Skip the indented material if you are already familiar with it. 
What makes a good prognosticator? Confidence and/or Accuracy?
And how about keeping all those conference changes straight?
Caveat emptor (Buyer beware): We make this material available in good fun out of interest for the sport of college football. Please do not rely on our material to place bets or wagers of any kind. No one knows the exact outcome of a game or a season before it is played and that is what makes it so interesting. We disclaim any and all liability for the consequences of anyone relying in any way upon our postings, analysis, links or reasoning - for which we make no warranty of accuracy. May the best team win
YPPSYS means "yards per play system", as that is our main ranking component, based primarily on stats at cfbstats.com, but we also use schedule difficulty and conference rankings as based on calculations e.g. at Massey Ratings. At YPPSYS, we regard a difference of one rating point to be worth about 7 points on the scoreboard, a calculation, of course, that is not absolute, given home field advantages, etc. We calculate the home field advantage at an average of about 3 points.
The betting lines ("odds" or "spread") used here were taken from the lines at ESPN Daily Lines - Week 9 as of Monday, October 21, 2013. Missing odds, entered initially as "??" are added later. Lines can change over time, but our predictions do not reflect such later changes once we have selected odds here.

Tuesday, October 22, 2013

Louisiana Lafayette /ULL, LA-Lafayette) at Arkansas State
The Ragin Cajuns are favored over the Red Wolves by 3 points.
Our call: 34-30 for Lousiana Lafayette.

Thursday, October 24, 2013

Kentucky at Mississippi State
The Bulldogs are favored over the Wildcats by 10.5 points.
Our call: 34-31 for Mississippi State.

Marshall at Middle Tennessee State
The Thundering Herd is favored over the Blue Raiders by  10.5 points.
Our call: 24-20 for Marshall.

Friday, October 25, 2013

Boise State at BYU (Brigham Young University)
The Cougars are favored over the Broncos by 7.5 points.
Our call: 27-23 for BYU.

Saturday, October 26, 2013

Wake Forest at Miami of Florida
The Hurricanes are favored over the Demon Deacons by 21 points.
Our call: 37-17 for Miami.

Oklahoma State at Iowa State
The Cowboys are favored over the Cyclones by 13.5 points.
Our call: 27-23 for Oklahoma State.

Louisville at South Florida
The Cardinals are favored over the Bulls by 19.5 points.
Our call: 37-14 for Louisville.

Connecticut at UCF (Central Florida)
The Knights are favored over the Huskies by 22.5 points.
Our call: 44-14 for UCF.

Nebraska at Minnesota
The Cornhuskers are favored over the Golden Gophers by 10.5 points.
Our call: 34-27 for the Huskers.

Houston at Rutgers
The Scarlet Knights are favored over the Cougars by 7.5 points.
Our call: 27-26 for Rutgers.

Ball State at Akron
The Cardinals are favored over the Zips by 11 points.
Our call: 31-24 for Ball State.

Northwestern at Iowa
The Hawkeyes are favored over the Wildcats by 4.5 points.
Our call: 30-23 for Iowa.

Vanderbilt at Texas A&M
The Aggies are favored over the Commodores by ?? points.
Odds surely await news on Manziel's injury.
Our call: 41-27 for Texas A&M.

Georgia Tech at Virginia
The Yellow Jackets are favored over the Cavaliers by 10 points.
Our call: 27-24 for Georgia Tech.

Pittsburgh at Navy
The Panthers are favored over the Midshipmen by 5.5 points.
Our call: 34-28 for Pittsburgh.

Miami of Ohio at Ohio
The Bobcats are favored over the Redhawks by 25 points.
Our call: 41-14 for Ohio.

Toledo at Bowling Green
The Falcons are favored over the Rockets by 4 points.
Our call: 31-30 for Bowling Green.

Western Michigan at Massachusetts
The Minutemen are favored over the Broncos by 3 points.
Our call: 28-23 for Western Michigan.

Temple at SMU (Southern Methodist University)
The Mustangs are favored over the Owls by 11 points.
Our call: 34-21 for SMU.

Tennessee at Alabama
The Crimson Tide is favored over the Volunteers by 28 points.
Our call: 41-16 for Alabama.

North Carolina State at Florida State
The Seminoles are favored over the Wolfpack by 29 points.
Our call: 45-10 for Florida State.

Clemson at Maryland
The Tigers are favored over the Terrapins by 13 points.
Our call: 35-23 for Clemson.

Texas Tech at Oklahoma
The Sooners are favored over the Red Raiders by 6.5 points.
Our call: 31-30 for Texas Tech.

Duke at Virginia Tech
The Hokies are favored over the Blue Devils by 13.5 points.
Our call: 31-14 for Virginia Tech.

Eastern Michigan at Northern Illinois
The Huskies are favored over the Eagles by 30.5 points.
Our call: 50-17 for Northern Illinois.

Boston College at North Carolina
The Tar Heels are favored over the Eagles by 7.5 points.
Our call: 27-26 for Boston College.

UTEP (University of Texas El Paso) at Rice
The Owls are favored over the Miners by 17.5 points.
Our call: 40-21 for Rice.

Michigan State at Illinois
The Spartans are favored over the Illini by 11.5 points.
Our call: 27-23 for Michigan State.

Buffalo at Kent State
The ?? are favored over the ?? by ?? points.
Our call: 28-23 for Buffalo.

Tulsa at Tulane
The ?? are favored over the ?? by ?? points.
Our call: 27-20 for Tulane.

West Virginia at Kansas State
The Wildcats are favored over the Mountaineers by 10 points.
Our call: 34-27 for Kansas State.

Utah at USC (Southern Cal)
The Trojans are favored over the Utes by 6.5 points.
Our call: 27-26 for USC.

Troy at Western Kentucky
The Hilltoppers are favored over the Trojans by 9 points.
Our call: 38-30 for Western Kentucky.

Notre Dame at Air Force
The ?? are favored over the ?? by ?? points.
Our call: 37-17 for Notre Dame.

UAB at UTSA (University of Texas San Antonio)
The Roadrunners are favored over the Blazers by 4.5 points.
Our call: 35-28 for UTSA.

Louisiana Tech at FIU (Florida International University)
The Bulldogs are favored over the Golden Panthers by 5.5 points.
Our call: 27-24 for Louisiana Tech.

UNLV at Nevada
The Wolf Pack is favored over the Rebels by 6 points.
Our call: 31-30 for Nevada.

UCLA at Oregon
The Ducks are favored over the Bruins by 21.5 points.
Our call: 41-27 for Oregon.

South Carolina at Missouri
The ?? are favored over the ?? by ?? points.
Our call: 38-27 for Missouri.

Baylor at Kansas
The Bears are favored over the Jayhawks by 36 points.
Our call: 52-17 for Baylor.

Furman at LSU (Louisiana State University)
The Tigers are favored over the Paladins by 47 points.
Our call: 51-7 for LSU.

Wyoming at San Jose State
The Spartans are favored over the Cowboys by 6 points.
Our call: 37-28 for San Jose State.

South Alabama at Texas State
The Jaguars are favored over the Bobcats by 2.5 points.
Our call: 27-24 for South Alabama.

Georgia State at Louisiana-Monroe (ULM, LA-Monroe)
The Warhawks are favored over the Panthers by 11.5 points.
Our call: 34-20 for LA-Monroe.

North Texas at Southern Miss
The Mean Green are favored over the Golden Eagles by 10.5 points.
Our call: 31-20 for North Texas.

Florida Atlantic at Auburn
The Tigers are favored over the  Owls by 24.5 points.
Our call: 42-13 for Auburn.

Idaho at Mississippi
The Rebels are favored over the Vandals by 41 points.
Our call: 48-10 for Ole MIss.

Texas at TCU
The Horned Frogs are favored over the Longhorns by 1.5 points.
Our call: 24-23 for Texas.

Penn State at Ohio State
The Buckeyes are favored over the Nittany Lions by 14.5 points.
Our call: 35-17 for Ohio State.

Arizona at Colorado
The Wildcats are favored over the Buffaloes by 15 points.
Our call: 31-24 for Arizona.

Abilene Christian at New Mexico State
The ?? are favored over the ?? by ?? points.
Our call: 38-31 for Abilene Christian.

Stanford at Oregon State
The Cardinal is favored over the Beavers by 5 points.
Our call: 34-24 for Stanford.

Fresno State at San Diego State
The Bulldogs are favored over the Aztecs by 9.5 points.
Our call: 30-27 for Fresno State.

California at Washington
The ?? are favored over the ?? by ?? points.
Our call: 41-24 for Washington.

Sunday, October 27, 2013

Colorado State at Hawaii
The Rams are favored over the Warriors by 5.5 points.
Our call: 31-24 for Colorado State.


2013 FBS College Football Rankings after WEEK 8 by SportPundit

Below are the 2013 FBS College Football Rankings after WEEK 8 of play, by SportPundit.

Note that we do not have the time to do this every week, but those interested can update the stats for their use on their own in coming weeks as many changes will still surely take place this early in the season. The yards per play stats are likely to be more useful when a good number of representative games have been played in the course of a season.

Please read the indented material unless you are already familiar with it.
Caveat emptor (Buyer beware): We make this material available in good fun out of interest for the sport of college football. Please do not rely on our material to place bets or wagers of any kind. No one knows the exact outcome of a game or a season before it is played and that is what makes it so interesting. We disclaim any and all liability for the consequences of anyone relying in any way upon our postings, analysis, links or reasoning - for which we make no warranty of accuracy. May the best team win.

These early season ratings and rankings are based in part on our primary measure of "net average yards per play advantage" (NAYPPA), a specific predictive calculation which we were the first to implement, minus a calculation based on the schedule difficulty and a penalty for losses. Because of FCS scheduling, gauging schedule difficulty at this point in the season is largely guesswork!

Yards per play stats are taken from cfbstats.com. In recent years, an average FBS team gained ca. 5.4 yards per play on offense and allowed ca. 5.4 yards per play on defense, a statistic that holds fairly constant.
 
Massey Ratings schedule difficulty ratings were sourced in part, but we also use subjective judgments and adjustments to handle schedule difficulty, whereby -- for these rankings and ratings --  from the NAYPPA data, we subtract .01 times 2x the schedule difficulty up to 50, and .01 times 3x the schedule difficulty for 55 and up. We subtract .2 for every loss. The system is a bit unwieldy for calculation, but we have to account for strong teams beating up on weak ones.

As a measuring stick, note that the best college teams of all time had a NAYPPA of not greater than 3.0 for an entire season. Schedules have become easier recently, e.g. through FCS scheduling, and Boise State had a 3.5 season NAYPPA three years ago but lost a game. According to the yards-per-play standard, last year's Alabama team would have been ranked among the best teams ever, had they not lost to Texas A&M. But they did lose.

See Best Teams Ever: (top three as examples below)
In past recent years, an average FBS team gained ca. 5.4 yards per play on offense and allows ca. 5.4 yards per play on defense, a statistic that holds fairly constant.

THE 2013 SportPundit & YPPSYS TEAM RANKINGS AND RATINGS after WEEK 8

Team
Rank
AFTER
Week
- 8 -
2013
by 
Sport
Pundit
AFTER
Week
 - 8 -
2013

* =
adjustment

NAYPPA
net average yards per play advantage offense over defense based on stats from cfbstats.com
(our calculation) 


yards
per
play offense

yards
per
play defense


Schedule difficulty
*plus or minus  subjective adjustments*
 (calculation based in part on Massey Ratings AND also a lot on our own past ratings and rankings)


W-L
(won
-loss)
record
2013

YPPSYS
Team
Rating NAYPPA
minus .01 x
2x schedule difficulty up to 50 minus 3x schedule difficulty thereafter
minus .2 for every loss.

Florida State
4.0

8.2
4.2

70*
6-0
+1.9
2 Oregon 3.8

8.3
4.5

70*
7-0
+1.7

Alabama
2.4

7.1
4.7

50*
7-0
+1.4
4 Baylor
4.7


9.0
4.3


110*

6-0

+1.4

5 Missouri 1.7

6.8
5.1

50*
7-0
+0.7
6 Ohio State 1.5

6.6
5.1

50*
7-0
+0.5
7 LSU 1.7

7.0
5.3

50*
6-2
+0.3
8Stanford 1.4

6.3
4.9

50
6-1
+0.2
9 Auburn 1.1

6.9
5.8

40*
6-1
+0.1
10 Texas A&M 0.8

7.5
6.7

20*

5-2

+0.0 

11 Miami (Florida) 2.8

7.6
4.8

100*
6-0
-0.2
12 UCLA 1.7

6.3
4.6

55*
5-1
-0.3
13 UCF 1.0

6.6
5.6

45*
5-1
-0.3
14 Louisville 3.2

7.6
4.4

110*
6-1
-0.3
15 Mississippi 0.3

5.6
5.3

10*
4-3
-0.5
16 Clemson 0.4

5.9
5.5

40*
6-1
-0.6
17 Georgia 1.0

6.6
5.6

50*
4-3
-0.6
18 South Carolina
1.1


6.7
5.6

55*
5-2
-0.6
19 Virginia Tech 0.8

4.8
4.0

55*
5-1
-0.6
20 Oklahoma1.0

5.8
4.8

55*
6-1
-0.7
21 Wisconsin
3.1


7.5
4.4


115*

5-2

-0.7

22 Utah 1.0

6.3
5.3

55*
4-3
-0.7
23 Michigan 1.3

6.4
5.1

60*
6-1
-0.7
24 Notre Dame 0.4

5.7
5.3

50*
5-2
-1.0
25 Arizona State
0.9


6.3
5.4


55*
5-2
-1.0
26 Florida0.3

4.9
4.6

40*
4-3
-1.1
27 BYU 0.8

5.6
4.8

55*
5-2
-1.1
28 USC 0.8

5.9
5.1

55*
4-3
-1.3
29 Texas Tech 1.6

6.2
4.6

95*
7-0
-1.3
30 Michigan State 1.3

4.9
3.6

80*
6-1
-1.3
31 Washington 1.1

6.0
4.9

60*
4-3
-1.3
32 Nebraska 0.5

6.3
5.8

60*
5-1
-1.5
33 Oregon State 1.0

6.7
5.7

80*
6-1
-1.6
34 Texas 0.3

5.9
5.6

55*
4-2
-1.6
35 Vanderbilt 0.8

6.1
5.3

60*
4-3
-1.6
36 Tennessee -0.6

5.3
5.9

25*
4-3
-1.7
37 Penn State 0.8

5.5
4.7

70*
4-2
-1.7
38 Arizona 0.8

5.7
4.9

70*
4-2

-1.7
39 Houston 0.9

6.2
5.3

80*
5-1
-1.7
40 Oklahoma St. 1.1

5.8
4.7

90*
5-1
-1.8
41 Kansas State 0.6

6.1
5.5

55*
2-4
-1.8
42 North. Illinois 0.9

6.5
5.6

90*
7-0
-1.8
43 Iowa
0.8


5.6
4.8

70*
4-3
-1.9
44 TCU 0.3

5.1
4.8

55*
3-4
-1.9
45 Pittsburgh 0.6

6.0
5.4

70*
4-2
-1.9
46 Fresno State 0.9

6.2
5.3

95*
6-0
-2.0
47  Rutgers 0.5

5.6
5.1

70*
4-2
-2.0
48 Boise State 0.9


6.1
5.2

85*
5-2
-2.0
49 Utah State
1.1


5.9
4.8


80*

4-4

-2.1

50 Washington St. -0.4

5.6
6.0

50*
4-4
-2.2
51 Georgia Tech 0.2

5.8
5.6

60*
4-3
-2.2

52 Indiana 0.7

6.7
6.0

75*
3-4
-2.2
53 East Carolina 0.8

5.5
4.7

85*
5-2
-2.2
54 Mississippi St.
0.7


6.4
5.7


75*

3-3

-2.2

55 Kentucky -0.6

5.9
6.5

30*
1-5
-2.2
56 Toledo 0.6

6.1
5.5

75*
4-3
-2.3
57 Boston College -0.3

5.8
6.1

55*
3-3
-2.3
58 West Virginia -0.6

5.5
6.1

50*
3-4
-2.4
59 Northwestern 0.3

5.8
5.5

70*
4-3
-2.4
60 Illinois -0.2

6.3
6.5

55*
3-3
-2.4
61 Syracuse 0.0

5.5
5.5

65*
3-3
-2.5
62 Ball State 1.0

6.5
5.5

110*
7-1
-2.5
63 Arkansas -0.1

5.6
5.7

55*
3-5
-2.6
64 Marshall  1.4

5.6
4.2

120*
4-2
-2.6
65 Bowling Green 0.8

6.4
5.6

100*
5-2
-2.6
66 Duke 0.8

6.1
5.3

100*
5-2
-2.6
67 North Carolina -0.2

5.4
5.6

55*
1-5
-2.7
68 Cincinnati 1.5

6.3
4.8

130*
5-2
-2.8
69 Iowa State -1.2

4.8
6.0

40*
1-5
-2.8
70 N.C. State 0.1

5.4
5.3

70*
3-3
-2.8
71 San Diego St. 0.0

5.5
5.5

75*
3-3
-2.8
72 Wake Forest -0.2

4.8
5.0

70*
4-3
-2.8
73 Maryland 1.5

6.4
4.9

130*
5-2
-2.8
74 Louis.-Lafayette 0.2

6.2
6.0

85*
4-2
-2.8
75 Ohio 0.4

6.1
5.7

95*

5-2

-2.8

76 Minnesota -0.4

5.3
5.7

70*
5-2
-2.9
77 South Alabama 0.2

6.1
5.9

85*
3-3
-2.9
78 SMU -0.1

5.4
5.5

65*
2-4
-2.9
79 San Jose St. 0.6

6.1
5.5

95*
3-3
-2.9

80 Navy 0.0

5.7
5.7

80*
3-3
-3.0
81 Virginia -0.6

4.5
5.1

55*
2-5
-3.0
82 Memphis 0.3

5.0
4.7

75*
1-5
-3.0
83 Colorado 0.0

5.6
5.6

85*
3-3
-3.1
84 Tulane -0.6

4.6
5.2

70*
5-2
-3.1
85 Rice -0.4

5.2
5.6

80*
5-2
-3.2
86  Buffalo -0.5

5.0
5.5

75*
5-2
-3.2
87 West. Kentucky 0.9

6.6
5.7

115*
4-3
-3.2
88 North Texas -0.4

5.5
5.9

75*
4-3
-3.3
89 California -1.7

5.2
6.9

20*
1-6
-3.3
90 Mid. Tennessee -0.7

4.8
5.5

70*
3-4
-3.6
91  Florida Atlantic  -0.4

4.9
5.3

75*
2-5
-3.6
92 UTSA -0.2

5.6
5.8

80*
2-5
-3.6
93 UNLV -0.4

5.5
5.9

90*
4-3
-3.7
94 Tulsa -0.3

5.1
5.4

90*
2-4
-3.8
95 Colorado State 0.1

6.2
6.1

105*
3-4
-3.8
96 Arkansas State 0.1

6.2
6.1

110*
3-3
-3.8

97 Louis.-Monroe 
-1.3


4.6
5.9


55*

3-4

-3.8
98 Texas State 0.0

5.0
5.0

105*
4-3
-3.8
99 Wyoming 0.7

6.4
5.7

130*
4-3
-3.8
100 Nevada -2.3

5.0
7.3

40*
3-4
-3.9
101 Hawaii -0.6

4.9
5.5

70*
0-6
-3.9
102 Troy -0.6

6.1
6.7

90*
4-3
-3.9
103 Akron -0.9

4.8
5.7

60*
2-6
-3.9
104  Kansas -0.8

4.4
5.2

85*
2-4
-4.0
105 South Florida -1.1

4.3
5.4

70*
2-4
-4.0
106 Purdue -1.4

4.3
5.7

55*
1-6
-4.1
107  Cent. Michigan  -1.0

5.2
6.2

75*
3-5
-4.1
108 Connecticut -1.2

4.4
5.6

60*
0-6
-4.2
109 Air Force -0.9

5.4
6.3

70*
1-6
-4.2
110 Temple -1.3

5.2
6.3

75*
1-6
-4.3

111 Army -0.9

5.7
6.6

85*
3-5
-4.3
112 Kent State -1.4

5.3
6.7


65*
2-6
-4.4
113 New Mexico -0.7

6.4
7.1

95*
2-5
-4.5
114 UAB
-0.7


5.9
6.6


100*

2-4

-4.5

115 Louisiana Tech 0.1

5.5
5.4

120*
2-5
-4.5
116   West. Michigan -1.3

4.6
5.9

65*

0-8
-4.8
117 Fl. Int'l FIU  -2.6

3.8
6.4

55*
1-5
-5.1
118 Southern Miss -1.1

4.3
5.4

95*
0-6
-5.2
119 Idaho -2.2

4.7
6.9

70*
1-6
-5.3
120 Georgia State -1.1

5.2
6.3

100*
0-7
-5.5
121 UTEP  -2.1

5.5
7.6

80*
1-5
-5.5
122 Massachusetts -2.4

4.3
6.7

80*
1-6
-6.0
123 East. Michigan  -1.9

5.5
7.4

100*
1-6
-6.1
124 New Mexico St. -2.2

5.3
7.5

85*

0-7

-6.1
125 Miami (Ohio) -2.2

3.8
6.0

85*
0-7
-6.2

See our 2013 Preseason Rankings Here.

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