Sunday, October 20, 2013

Quo Vadis? On the Road to Nowhere: The Fiscal Cliff and What Awaits Us -- in Original Krugmanese

Krugman has it right at the New York Times in assessing The Damage Done already by Tea Party extremists.

Bipartisan Reform of the Affordable Care Act Would Be Possible if the Extremists Were Factored Out of the Equation

Tyler Cowen considers the options in a New York Times article titled Driving a New Bargain on Health Care.

Week 8 2013 College Football FBS Game Prediction Results by SportPundit

Week 8 2013 College Football FBS Game Prediction Results by SportPundit 

Update: It was a wild, extremely high-scoring week with several upsets, especially in the SEC. This 8th week we were 38-11 in calling the winner but only 21-26-2 against the spread.

Our stats for the season after Week 8 are 366-102 (78%) in calling the winner and 233-194-7 (55%) against the spread.

Below are our College Football Prediction RESULTS for Week 8 2013 relying on YPPSYS, our Yards Per Play System and our FBS Ratings and Rankings of all 125 Teams after Week 7 of the 2013 Season.

Skip the indented material if you are already familiar with it. 
What makes a good prognosticator? Confidence and/or Accuracy?
And how about keeping all those conference changes straight?
Caveat emptor (Buyer beware): We make this material available in good fun out of interest for the sport of college football. Please do not rely on our material to place bets or wagers of any kind. No one knows the exact outcome of a game or a season before it is played and that is what makes it so interesting. We disclaim any and all liability for the consequences of anyone relying in any way upon our postings, analysis, links or reasoning - for which we make no warranty of accuracy. May the best team win
YPPSYS means "yards per play system", as that is our main ranking component, based primarily on stats at cfbstats.com, but we also use schedule difficulty and conference rankings as based on calculations e.g. at Massey Ratings. At YPPSYS, we regard a difference of one rating point to be worth about 7 points on the scoreboard, a calculation, of course, that is not absolute, given home field advantages, etc. We calculate the home field advantage at an average of about 3 points.
The betting lines ("odds" or "spread") used here were taken from the opening lines at Oddsshark.com. Missing odds are added later as the opening line of each game.

Tuesday, October 15, 2013

Louisiana Lafayette /ULL, LA-Lafayette) at Western Kentucky
The Hilltoppers were favored over the Ragin' Cajuns by 3.5 points.
Our call: 31-30 for Lousiana Lafayette.
Result: Louisiana Lafayette won 37-20 in spite of being outgained 471 to 344 yards. With ULL trailing 10-0, a 99-yard interception return for a TD by the Cajuns' Al Riles was the turning point in the game's momentum, as the Hilltoppers turned the ball over four times, which led to the loss.
This week we are 1-0 in calling the winner and 1-0 against the spread.  

Thursday, October 17, 2013

Miami of Florida at North Carolina
The Hurricanes were favored over the Tar Heels by 7.5 points.
Our call: 38-20 for Miami of Florida.
Result: The still undefeated Hurricanes needed a late TD for a lucky 27-23 win over the Tar Heels as Miami's Stephen Morris threw four interceptions.
This week we are 2-0 in calling the winner and 1-1 against the spread.

Friday, October 18, 2013

UCF at Louisville
The Cardinals were favored over the Knights by 17.5 points.
Our call: 38-27 for Louisville.
Result: The Knights upset the Cardinals 38-35 as Louisville blew a 28-7 lead in the 3rd quarter. UCF gained 446 yards and Louisville 445 as both teams gained ca. 7 yards per play in a game not dominated by defense.
This week we are 2-1 in calling the winner and 2-1 against the spread.

Saturday, October 19, 2013

Minnesota at Northwestern
The Wildcats were favored over Golden Gophers by 13 points.
Our call: 35-23 for Northwestern.
Result: The Wildcats turned the ball over 3 times and lost to the Golden Gophers 20-17.
This week we are 2-2 in calling the winner and 3-1 against the spread.

Purdue at Michigan State
The Spartans were favored over the Boilermakers by 21 points.
Our call: 31-7 for Michigan State.
Result:The Spartans shut out the Boilermakers 14-0.
This week we are 3-2 in calling the winner and 3-2 against the spread.

Southern Miss at East Carolina
The Pirates were favored over the Golden Eagles by 21 points.
Our call: 31-14 for East Carolina.
Result: East Carolina beat Southern Miss 55-14.
This week we are 4-2 in calling the winner and 3-3 against the spread. 

TCU at Oklahoma State
The Cowboys were favored over the Horned Frogs by 7 points.
Our call: 31-27 for Oklahoma State.
Result: Oklahoma State beat TCU 24-10.
This week we are 5-2 in calling the winner and 3-4 against the spread.

SMU at Memphis
The Tigers were favored over the Mustangs by 1 point.
Our call: 26-24 for Memphis.
Result: SMU won 34-29.
This week we are 5-3 in calling the winner and 3-5 against the spread.

Georgia at Vanderbilt
The Bulldogs were favored over the Commodores by 9.5 points.
Our call: 41-28 for Georgia.
Result: Vandy upset the Dawgs 31-27.
This week we are 5-4 in calling the winner and 3-6 against the spread.

Texas Tech at West Virginia
The Red Raiders were favored over the Mountaineers by 6.5 points.
Our call: 34-27 for Texas Tech.
Result: The Red Raiders beat the Mountaineers 37-27.
This week we are 6-4 in calling the winner and 4-6 against the spread. 

Connecticut at Cincinnati
The Bearcats were favored over the Huskies by 14.5 points.
Our call: 27-17 for Cincinnati.
Result: Cincinnati topped UConn 41-16.
This week we are 7-4 in calling the winner and 4-7 against the spread. 

South Carolina at Tennessee
The Gamecocks were favored over the Volunteers by 7 points.
Our call: 37-27 for South Carolina.
Result: The Vols upset the Gamecocks 23-21.
This week we are 7-5 in calling the winner and 4-8 against the spread. 

Navy at Toledo
The Rockets were favored over the Midshipmen by 6 points.
Our call: 35-27 for Toledo.
Result: Toledo beat Navy in two overtimes 45-44.
This week we are 8-5 in calling the winner and 4-9 against the spread.

Florida at Missouri
The Gators were favored over the Tigers by 1.5 points.
Our call: 27-24 for Missouri.
Result: The Tigers remained unbeaten with a convincing 36-17 win over the Gators.
This week we are 9-5 in calling the winner and 5-9 against the spread.

Syracuse at Georgia Tech
The Yellow Jackets were favored over the Orange by 9.5 points.
Our call: 30-27 for Georgia Tech.
Result: The Yellow Jackets dominated the Orange 56-0.
This week we are 10-5 in calling the winner and 5-10 against the spread. 

Akron at Miami of Ohio
The Zips were favored over the Redhawks by 6 points.
Our call: 37-23 for Akron.
Result: Akron won 24-17 over the winless Redhawks.
This week we are 11-5 in calling the winner and 6-10 against the spread. 

Army at Temple
The Black Knights were favored over the Owls by 1.5 points.
Our call: 31-26 for Army.
Result: Temple won for the first time this season 33-14.
This week we are 11-6 in calling the winner and 5-12 against the spread. 

Ohio at Eastern Michigan
The Bobcats were favored over the Eagles by 20 points.
Our call: 38-17 for Ohio.
Result: The Bobcats prevailed over Eastern Michigan 56-28.
This week we are 12-6 in calling the winner and 6-12 against the spread.

Charleston Southern at Colorado
The Buffaloes were favored over the Buccaneers by 20 points.
Our call: 31-21 for Colorado.
Result: The Buffaloes won 43-10.
This week we are 13-6 in calling the winner and 6-13 against the spread.

Ball State at Western Michigan
The Cardinals were favored over the Broncos by 21 points.
Our call: 35-21 for Ball State.
Result:The Cardinals matched the spread, winning 38-17.
This week we are 14-6 in calling the winner and 6-13-1 against the spread.

Colorado State at Wyoming
The Cowboys were favored over the Rams by 6.5 points.
Our call: 35-28 for Wyoming.
Result: The Rams throttled the favored Cowboys 52-22.
This week we are 14-7 in calling the winner and 6-14-1 against the spread.

Kent State at South Alabama
The Jaguars were favored over the Golden Flashes by 6 points.
Our call: 35-23 for South Alabama.
Result: The Jaguars won 38-21.
This week we are 15-7 in calling the winner and 7-14-1 against the spread.

Northern Illinois at Central Michigan
The Huskies were favored over the Chippewas by 17 points.
Our call: 37-24 for Northern Illinois.
Result: The Huskies beat the Chippewas 38-17 as Northern Illinois QB Jordan Lynch ran for 316 yards, an FBS rushing record for a quarterback.
This week we are 16-7 in calling the winner and 7-15-1 against the spread.

UCLA at Stanford
The Cardinal was favored over the Bruins by 6 points.
Our call: 30-28 for UCLA.
Result: The Stanford defense led the Cardinal to a 24-10 win.
This week we are 17-7 in calling the winner and 7-16-1 against the spread.

Indiana at Michigan
The Wolverines were favored over the Hoosiers by 10.5 points.
Our call: 34-21 for Michigan.
Result: The Wolverines beat the Hoosiers 63-47 as Devid Gardner set school records with 584 yards total offense and 503 yards passing, 369 yards on 14 receptions and 2 TDs to Jeremy Gallon for a Big Ten record.
This week we are 18-7 in calling the winner and 8-16-1 against the spread.

Maryland at Wake Forest
The Terrapins were favored over the Demon Deacons by 7 points.
Our call: 27-21 for Maryland.
Result: Wake Forest upset Maryland 34-10.
This week we are 18-8 in calling the winner and 9-16-1 against the spread.

Iowa at Ohio State
The Buckeyes were favored over the Hawkeyes by 17 points.
Our call: 35-17 for Ohio State.
Result:  The Buckeyes struggled to a 34-24 win over the Hawkeyes.
This week we are 19-8 in calling the winner and 9-17-1 against the spread.

Auburn at Texas A&M
The Aggies were favored over the Tigers by 12 points.
Our call: 42-35 for Texas A&M.
Result: Gus Malzahn worked his coaching magic as Auburn also profited from an apparent injury to Johnny Manziel in winning over the Aggies 45-41.
This week we are 19-9 in calling the winner and 10-17-1 against the spread.

BYU at Houston
The BYU Cougars were favored over the Houston Cougars by 9 points.
Our call: 34-24 for BYU.
Result: BYU trailed 38-34 after a high-scoring first half but prevailed 47-46 on the final scoreboard as the defenses took over after the intermission.
This week we are 20-9 in calling the winner and 10-18-1 against the spread.

Duke at Virginia
The Cavaliers were favored over the Blue Devils by 4 points.
Our call: 27-26 for Duke.
Result: The Blue Devils came back from a 22-0 deficit to win 35-22.
This week we are 21-9 in calling the winner and 11-18-1 against the spread.

Massachusetts at Buffalo
The Bulls were favored over the Minutemen by 20.5 points.
Our call: 28-7 for Buffalo.
Result: The Bulls won 32-3.
This week we are 22-9 in calling the winner and 12-18-1 against the spread.

Oklahoma at Kansas
The Sooners were favored over the Jayhawks by 24 points.
Our call: 36-14 for Oklahoma.
Result: The Sooners came back from a 13-0 deficit to win 34-19.
This week we are 23-9 in calling the winner and 13-18-1 against the spread.

North Texas at Louisiana Tech
The Mean Green were favored over the Bulldogs by 7 points.
Our call: 30-27 for North Texas.
Result: North Texas won 28-13.
This week we are 24-9 in calling the winner and 13-19-1 against the spread.

Washington at Arizona State
The Sun Devils were favored over the Huskies by 3 points.
Our call: 31-30 for Arizona State.
Result: The Sun Devils ran over the Huskies 53-24.
This week we are 25-9 in calling the winner and 13-20-1 against the spread.

LSU at Mississippi
The Tigers were favored over the Ole Miss by 8 points.
Our call: 37-27 for LSU.
Result: Ole Miss upset the Tigers 27-24.
This week we are 25-10 in calling the winner and 13-21-1 against the spread.

Old Dominion at Pittsburgh
The Monarchs were favored over the Pirates by 19 points.
Our call: 40-21 for Pittsburgh.
Result: Pitt beat the Monarchs 35-24.
This week we are 26-10 in calling the winner and 13-21-2 against the spread.

Iowa State at Baylor
The Bears were favored over the Cyclones by 33 points.
Our call: 43-24 for Baylor.
Result: The Bears returned to scoring 70 points a game in annihilating the Cyclones 71-7 while running up 714 yards rushing and passing. Corey Coleman also returned a kickoff 97 yards for a TD.
This week we are 27-10 in calling the winner and 13-22-2 against the spread.

Georgia State at Texas State
The Bobcats were favored over the Panthers by 19 points.
Our call: 34-20 for Texas State.
Result: The Bobcats beat the winless Panthers 24-17.
This week we are 28-10 in calling the winner and 14-22-2 against the spread.

Arkansas at Alabama
The Crimson Tide was favored over the Razorbacks by 28 points.
Our call: 44-17 for Alabama.
Result: The Crimson Tide smothered Arkansas 52-0.
This week we are 29-10 in calling the winner and 14-23-2 against the spread.

USC at Notre Dame
The Fighting Irish were favored over the Trojans by 1.5 points.
Our call: 30-27 for Notre Dame.
Result: The Fighting Irish downed Southern Cal 14-10.
This week we are 30-10 in calling the winner and 15-23-2 against the spread.

Nevada at Boise State
The Broncos were favored over the Rebels by 21.5 points.
Our call: 38-24 for Boise State.
Result: The Broncos beat the Wolf Pack 34-17.
This week we are 31-10 in calling the winner and 16-23-2 against the spread.

Rice at New Mexico State
The Owls were favored over the Aggies by 20 points.
Our call: 38-24 for Rice.
Result: The Owls made short work of the Aggies 45-19.
This week we are 32-10 in calling the winner and 16-24-2 against the spread.

Florida State at Clemson
 The Seminoles were favored over the Tigers by 3 points.
Our call: 37-28 for Florida State.
Result: The Seminoles dropped Clemson from the ranks of the unbeaten with a dominating 51-14 thrashing of the Tigers.
This week we are 33-10 in calling the winner and 17-24-2 against the spread.

Wisconsin at Illinois
The Badgers were favored over the Illini by 10 points.
Our call: 41-30 for Wisconsin.
Result: The Badgers outgunned the Illini 56-32.
This week we are 34-10 in calling the winner and 18-24-2 against the spread.

Utah State at New Mexico
The Aggies were favored over the Lobos by 10 points.
Our call: 41-27 for Utah State.
Result: The Aggies thwarted the Lobos 45-10.
This week we are 35-10 in calling the winner and 19-24-2 against the spread.

Utah at Arizona
The Wildcats were favored over the Utes by 4.5 points.
Our call: 34-27 for Utah.
Result: The Wildcats beat the Utes 35-24.
This week we are 35-11 in calling the winner and 19-25-2 against the spread.

UNLV at Fresno State
The Bulldogs were favored over the Rebels by 21 points.
Our call: 37-24 for Fresno State.
Result: The Bulldogs beat the Rebels 38-14.
This week we are 36-11 in calling the winner and 20-25-2 against the spread.

Washington State at Oregon
The Ducks were favored over the Cougars by 39 points.
Our call: 47-17 for Oregon.
Result: The Ducks outscored the Cougars 62-38 as Washington State's Connor HHalliday completed 58 of 89 passes for 557 yards with 4 TDs and 4 interceptions. The 89 pass attempts broke the FBS record of 83 set by Purdue's Drew Brees in 1998.
This week we are 37-11 in calling the winner and 21-25-2 against the spread.

Oregon State at California
The Beavers were favored over the Golden Bears by 7.5 points.
Our call: 35-30 for Oregon State.
Result: The Beavers dismantled the Bears 49-17.
This week we are 38-11 in calling the winner and 21-26-2 against the spread.

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