Sunday, October 13, 2013

Week 7 2013 College Football FBS Game Prediction RESULTS by SportPundit

Week 7 2013 College Football FBS Game Prediction RESULTS by SportPundit

It was a rough 7th week of predictions as we went only
38-13 in calling the winner and a poor 23-27-1 against the spread.

Our stats for the season after Week 7 are now 328-91 (78%) in calling the winner and 212-168-5 (56%) against the spread.

Below are our College Football Prediction RESULTS for Week 7 2013 relying on YPPSYS, our Yards Per Play System and our FBS Ratings and Rankings of all 125 Teams after Week 6 of the 2013 Season.

Skip the indented material if you are already familiar with it. 
What makes a good prognosticator? Confidence and/or Accuracy?
And how about keeping all those conference changes straight?
Caveat emptor (Buyer beware): We make this material available in good fun out of interest for the sport of college football. Please do not rely on our material to place bets or wagers of any kind. No one knows the exact outcome of a game or a season before it is played and that is what makes it so interesting. We disclaim any and all liability for the consequences of anyone relying in any way upon our postings, analysis, links or reasoning - for which we make no warranty of accuracy. May the best team win
YPPSYS means "yards per play system", as that is our main ranking component, based primarily on stats at cfbstats.com, but we also use schedule difficulty and conference rankings as based on calculations e.g. at Massey Ratings. At YPPSYS, we regard a difference of one rating point to be worth about 7 points on the scoreboard, a calculation, of course, that is not absolute, given home field advantages, etc. We calculate the home field advantage at an average of about 3 points.
The betting lines ("odds" or "spread") used here were taken from the opening line at the College Football Prediction Tracker as of Monday, October 7, 2013, 10:30 AM, or if not found there then, from the opening lines at Oddsshark.com. Missing odds were added later as the opening line for each game.

Thursday, October 10, 2013

Rutgers at Louisville
The Cardinals were favored over the Scarlet Knights by 17 points.
Our call: 40-21 for Louisville.
Result: The Cardinals beat Rutgers 24-10 as Louisville outgained the Scarlet Knights convincingly 461 to 240 yards.
This week we are 1-0 in calling the winner and 0-1 against the spread. 

San Diego State at Air Force
The Aztecs were favored over the Falcons by 5 points.
Our call: 31-24 for San Diego State.
Result: The Aztecs outgained the Falcons 463 to 319 yards in winning 27-20.
This week we are 2-0 in calling the winner and 1-1 against the spread. 

Arizona at USC
The Trojans were favored over the Wildcats by 6 points.
Our call: 28-23 for Southern Cal.
Result: The Trojans won 38-31 in their first game under interim head coach Ed Orgeron, formerly a head coach at Ole Miss, as the team "had fun". That's the key: top talent, top coaching, be disciplined but have fun .... it's a sport.
This week we are 3-0 in calling the winner and 1-2 against the spread. 

Friday, October 11, 2013

Temple at Cincinnati
The Bearcats were favored over the Owls by 19 points.
Our call: 37-21 for Cincinnati.
Result: The Bearcats beat the Owls 38-20, as Brendon Kay completed 31 of 37 passes for 270 yards and 2 TDs. Cincinnati had otherwise had a tough month due to a heartbreaking tragedy. By the way, we can't remember four opening games of the week where the actual scores were so close to the spread and also to our own call. Just a matter of a point here, a point there. It won't stay that way, you can be sure.
This week we are 4-0 in calling the winner and 2-2 against the spread. 

Saturday, October 12, 2013

Missouri at Georgia
The Bulldogs are favored over Tigers by 11 points.
Our call: 42-27 for Georgia.
Result: The Tigers upset the Bulldogs 41-26 to put themselves alone at the top of the SEC East Division and throw many bowl projections into chaos.
This week we are 4-1 in calling the winner and 2-3 against the spread.

Oklahoma at Texas
The Sooners are favored over the Longhorns by 11.5 points.
Our call: 34-24 for Oklahoma.
Result: Similarly, the Longhorns, who have 3 TD losses to BYU and Ole Miss, thumped Oklahoma 36-20 to take a lot of heat off of head coach Mack Brown.
This week we are 4-2 in calling the winner and 3-3 against the spread.

Iowa State at Texas Tech
The Red Raiders are favored over the Cyclones by 17 points.
Our call: 35-23 for Texas Tech.
Result: The Red Raiders held on for a 42-35 win over the Cyclones.
This week we are 5-2 in calling the winner and 4-3 against the spread.

Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech
The Hokies are favored over the Panthers by 7 points.
Our call: 31-17 for Virginia Tech.
Result: The Hokies held Pitt to 210 total yards in winning 19-9, but putting up only 315 yards themselves.
This week we are 6-2 in calling the winner and 5-3 against the spread.

South Florida at Connecticut
The Huskies are favored over the Bulls by 6 points.
Our call: 24-23 for South Florida.
Result: The Bulls dropped the winless Huskies for their second straight win 13-10.
This week we are 7-2 in calling the winner and 6-3 against the spread.

Indiana at Michigan State
The Spartans are favored over the Hoosiers by 6 points.
Our call: 24-17 for Michigan State.
Result: The Spartans defeated the Hoosiers 42-28.
This week we are 8-2 in calling the winner and 7-3 against the spread.

Memphis at Houston
The Cougars are favored over the Tigers by 10.5 points.
Our call: 28-24 for Houston.
Result: The Cougars beat the Tigers 25-15.
This week we are 9-2 in calling the winner and 8-3 against the spread.

Eastern Michigan at Army
The Black Knights are favored over the Eagles by 7 points.
Our call: 38-26 for Army.
Result: The Black Knights thumped the Eagles 50-25.
This week we are 10-2 in calling the winner and 9-3 against the spread.

Nebraska at Purdue
The Huskers are favored over the Boilermakers by 14.5 points.
Our call: 38-23 for the Cornhuskers.
Result: The Huskers rolled over Boilermakers 44-7.
This week we are 11-2 in calling the winner and 10-3 against the spread.

Kansas at TCU
The Horned Frogs are favored over the Jayhawks by 24 points.
Our call: 35-14 for TCU.
Result: The Horned Frogs topped the Jayhawks 27-17.
This week we are 12-2 in calling the winner and 11-3 against the spread.

South Carolina at Arkansas
The Gamecocks are favored over the Razorbacks by 7 points.
Our call: 35-23 for South Carolina.
Result: The Gamecocks demolished the Razorbacks 52-7. Arkansas rushed for 218 yards on 24 carries but lost 2 fumbles and had a pass intercepted.
This week we are 13-2 in calling the winner and 12-3 against the spread.

Navy at Duke
The Blue Devils are favored over the Midshipmen by 3.5 points.
Our call: 31-30 for Navy.
Result: The Blue Devils profited from 3 Navy turnovers to win 35-7.
This week we are 13-3 in calling the winner and 12-4 against the spread.

Western Carolina at Auburn
The Tigers are favored over the Catamounts by 43.5 points.
Our call: 52-10 for Auburn.
Result: The Tigers clobbered the Catamounts 62-3, gaining 712 yards.
This week we are 14-3 in calling the winner and 12-5 against the spread.

Central Michigan at Ohio
The Bobcats are favored over the Chippewas by 10.5 points.
Our call: 34-17 for Ohio.
Result: The Bobcats lost surprisingly to the Chippewas 26-23, turning the ball over four times.
This week we are 14-4 in calling the winner and 12-6 against the spread.

Buffalo at Western Michigan
The Bulls are favored over the Broncos by 7.5 points.
Our call: 30-23 for Buffalo.
Result: The Bulls shut out the Broncos 33-0.
This week we are 15-4 in calling the winner and 12-7 against the spread.

Miami of Ohio at Massachusetts
The Minutemen are favored over the Redhawks by 2.5 points.
Our call: 24-23 for Massachusetts. Both teams are 0-5 and neither team has scored more than 14 points in any game.
Result: The Minutemen picked up their first win of the season and first under head coach Charley Molnar 17-10 against the winless Redhawks whose head coach and offensive coordinator were fired.
This week we are 16-4 in calling the winner and 12-8 against the spread.

Kent State at Ball State
The Cardinals are favored over the Golden Flashes by 11 points.
Our call: 41-24 for Ball State.
Result: The Cardinals came from behind to win 27-24.
This week we are 17-4 in calling the winner and 12-9 against the spread.

Boston College at Clemson
The Tigers are favored over the Eagles by 21 points.
Our call: 45-28 for Clemson.
Result: The Tigers trailed 14-10 after 3 quarters but pulled out a 24-14 win over a strongly improved Eagles team.
This week we are 18-4 in calling the winner and 13-9 against the spread.

Florida at LSU
The Tigers are favored over the Gators by 6.5 points.
Our call: 27-26 for LSU.
Result: The Tigers held the Gators to two field goals in winning 17-6.
This week we are 19-4 in calling the winner and 13-10 against the spread.

Baylor at Kansas State
The Bears are favored over the Wildcats by 10.5 points.
Our call: 51-24 for Baylor.
Result: The Bears struggled to a 35-25 win over the Wildcats.
This week we are 20-4 in calling the winner and 13-11 against the spread.

Northwestern at Wisconsin
The Badgers are favored over the Wildcats by 9.5 points.
Our call: 37-27 for Wisconsin.
Result: The Badgers dominated the Wildcats 35-6.
This week we are 21-4 in calling the winner and 14-11 against the spread.

San Jose State at Colorado State
The game is seen as even.
Our call: 27-26 for Colorado State.
Result: The Spartans won 34-27.
This week we are 21-5 in calling the winner and 14-12 against the spread.

Virginia at Maryland
The Terrapins are favored over the Cavaliers by 4 points.
Our call: 31-13 for Maryland.
Result: The Terps survived 3 turnovers in a 27-26 win over the Cavs.
This week we are 22-5 in calling the winner and 14-13 against the spread.

Syracuse at North Carolina State
The Wolfpack is favored over the Orange by 4.5 points.
Our call: 31-24 for NC State.
Result: After getting destroyed 49-14 by Clemson last week, the Orange upset the Wolfpack 24-10.
This week we are 22-6 in calling the winner and 14-14 against the spread.

Troy at Georgia State
The Trojans are favored over the Panthers by 16 points.
Our call: 41-24 for Troy.
Result: The Trojans won 35-28 in the final minutes.
This week we are 23-6 in calling the winner and 14-15 against the spread.

East Carolina at Tulane
The Pirates are favored over the Green Wave by 11 points.
Our call: 24-20 for East Carolina.
Result: The Green Wave prevailed in 3 overtimes 36-33.
This week we are 24-6 in calling the winner and 15-15 against the spread.

New Mexico at Wyoming
The Cowboys are favored over the Lobos by 10 points.
Our call: 45-33 for Wyoming.
Result: The Cowboys raced to a 21-0 lead only to have the game tied in the 4th quarter, but pulled out the win 38-31.
This week we are 25-6 in calling the winner and 15-16 against the spread.

Oregon at Washington
The Ducks are favored over the Huskies by 10.5 points.
Our call: 34-27 for Oregon.
Result: The Huskies pulled to within 31-24 at the end of the 3rd quarter, but the Ducks then scored two unanswered TDs to win 45-24.
This week we are 26-6 in calling the winner and 15-17 against the spread.

Rice at UTSA (Texas San Antonio)
The Owls are favored over the Roadrunners by 3.5 points.
Our call: 28-27 for UTSA.
Result: The Owls won 27-21.
This week we are 26-7 in calling the winner and 15-18 against the spread.

Michigan at Penn State
The Wolverines are favored over the Nittany Lions by 1 point.
Our call: 31-27 for Michigan.
Result: The Wolverines fell in 4 overtimes to the Nittany Lions 43-40.
This week we are 26-8 in calling the winner and 15-19 against the spread.

Akron at Northern Illinois
The Huskies are favored over the Zips by 21.5 points.
Our call: 41-24 for Northern Illinois.
Result: The Huskies remained unbeaten with a 27-20 win over the Zips.
This week we are 27-8 in calling the winner and 16-19 against the spread.

Marshall at Florida Atlantic
The Thundering Herd is favored over the Owls by 13 points.
Our call: 27-20 for Marshall.
Result: The Thundering Herd won 24-23 on a last-second field goal.
This week we are 28-8 in calling the winner and 17-19 against the spread.

Stanford at Utah
The Cardinal is favored over the Utes by 10 points.
Our call: 34-27 for Stanford.
Result: The Cardinal fell from the ranks of the unbeaten, losing 27-21, after having the ball at the Utah 6-yard line for two plays in the final minute, but failing to convert for the TD. Playcalling and time management in and around the red zone was poor.
This week we are 28-9 in calling the winner and 18-19 against the spread.

Alabama at Kentucky
The Crimson Tide is favored over the Wildcats by 27 points.
Our call: 37-17 for Alabama.
Result: The score was 0-0 after 1 quarter but it was all 'Bama after that in a 48-7 thrashing of Kentucky, as the Crimson Tide gained 668 total yards.
This week we are 29-9 in calling the winner and 18-20 against the spread.

Middle Tennessee at North Texas
The Mean Green are favored over the Blue Raiders by 4.5 points.
Our call: 31-24 for North Texas.
Result: The Mean Green won handily over the Blue Raiders 34-7.
This week we are 30-9 in calling the winner and 19-20 against the spread.

Georgia Tech at Brigham Young
The Cougars are favored over the Yellow Jackets by 4 points.
Our call: 30-21 for BYU.
Result: The Cougars topped the Yellow Jackets 38-20.
This week we are 31-9 in calling the winner and 20-20 against the spread.

Louisiana-Monroe at Texas State
The Bobcats are favored over the Warhawks by 7 points.
Our call: 31-20 for Texas State.
Result: The Warhawks beat the Bobcats 21-14.
This week we are 31-10 in calling the winner and 20-21 against the spread.

Idaho at Arkansas State
The Red Wolves are favored over the Vandals by 24 points.
Our call: 37-28 for Arkansas State.
Result: The Red Wolves beat the Vandals 48-24.
This week we are 32-10 in calling the winner and 20-21-1 against the spread.

Bowling Green at Mississippi State
The Bulldogs are favored over the Falcons by 8.5 points.
Our call: 34-27 for Mississippi State.
Result: The Bulldogs won 21-20 in a strange victory in which the Falcons scored late in the 3rd quarter, the last score in the game, but failed to go for 2 points to tie but settled for the extra point, whereas the tie would have sent the game into overtime, as it turned out. You have to play to win, or you lose. A poor head coaching call from which all head coaches could learn.
This week we are 33-10 in calling the winner and 21-21-1 against the spread.

UAB at Florida International FIU
The Blazers are favored over the  Panthers by 7 points.
Our call: 31-24 for FIU.
Result: The Blazers won 27-24 on a field goal with 10 seconds to play.
This week we are 33-11 in calling the winner and 22-21-1 against the spread.

Boise State at Utah State
The Broncos are favored over the Aggies by 7.5 points.
Our call: 31-27 for Utah State.
Result: The Broncos bested the Aggies 34-23.
This week we are 33-12 in calling the winner and 22-22-1 against the spread.

Hawaii at UNLV
The Rebels are favored over the Warriors by 6.5 points.
Our call: 30-21 for UNLV.
Result: The Rebels pulled out a 39-37 win with a last-second field goal.
This week we are 34-12 in calling the winner and 22-23-1 against the spread.

Tulsa at UTEP
The Golden Hurricane is favored over the Miners by 10 points.
Our call: 34-27 for Tulsa.
Result: The Golden Hurricane won 34-20.
This week we are 35-12 in calling the winner and 22-24-1 against the spread.

Texas A&M at Mississippi
The Aggies are favored over Ole Miss by 5 points.
Our call: 41-31 for Texas A&M.
Result: The Aggies won on a last-second field goal, 41-38.
This week we are 36-12 in calling the winner and 22-25-1 against the spread.

Colorado at Arizona State
The Sun Devils are favored over the Buffaloes by 24 points.
Our call: 38-24 for Arizona State.
Result: The Sun Devils led 47-6 at the half in winning 54-13 against the outmatched Buffaloes.
This week we are 37-12 in calling the winner and 22-26-1 against the spread.

California at UCLA
The Bruins are favored over the Bears by 23 points.
Our call: 49-24 for UCLA.
Result: The Bruins beat the Golden Bears 37-10 to remain unbeaten.
This week we are 38-12 in calling the winner and 23-26-1 against the spread.

Oregon State at Washington State
The game is seen as even.
Our call: 34-27 for Washington State.
Result: The Beavers clobbered the Cougars 52-24.
This week we are 38-13 in calling the winner and 23-27-1 against the spread.

PolitiFact Launching PunditFact To Gauge Veracity of Pundits' Statements: What to Expect?

This is a great idea if the analysts are realistic about what is actually known to be true and what is thought by the mainstream to be true but not actually based on probative evidence. Belief is not fact.

See
PolitiFact launching new site to call out lies of political pundits.

Actually, "lies" in that heading is not a good selection of a term in this context, because it is often "untrue" that people are consciously or intentionally lying in political discussions especially. Sometimes yes, but mostly not.

Rather, in most cases, people think the untruths that they put out into the world are true -- in their view of them.

What needs to be done is to correct people's misconceptions, subjective misinterpretations and often gross misunderstandings of the "true" facts.

The Tea Party's Ted Cruz e.g. is so brilliant a mind and orator that he has even convinced himself fully that his erroneous ideas -- not based accurately on actual fact -- are true.

Look at our previous posting on individual and corporate income taxes, taxation under various Presidential administrations and the inverse correlation to federal government debt. Everyone has an opinion on these topics, but almost no one has the actual facts. If Ted Cruz e.g. fairly analyzd that material, he might think differently -- or not -- because it turns out it is extremely difficult if the "truth" conflicts with what the "party line" is or what the misinformed "believe".

Then the probative evidence is simply ignored, or twisted to suit the prevailing dogma or school of thought. "Wishful thinking" contra the facts is everywhere a powerful human motivator.

Recall that "belief", whether religious, political, economic, social, legal, scientific or other-- is the ABSENCE of fact, otherwise it would not be a belief but a thing proven by probative evidence.

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