Saturday, October 05, 2013

Week 6 2013 College Football FBS Game Prediction RESULTS by SportPundit

Week 6 2013 College Football FBS Game Prediction RESULTS by SportPundit 

It was a tough 6th week with numerous unexpected results as many teams entered conference play, which makes the games a somewhat different ball game to call than non-conference matchups. We finished this 6th week 
43-12 in calling the winner but only 28-27 against the spread.

Our stats for the season after Week 6 are thus now 290-78 (79%) in calling the winner and 189-141-4 (57%, 189/330) against the spread (i.e. the betting line).

Below are our College Football Prediction RESULTS for Week 6 2013 relying on YPPSYS, our Yards Per Play System and our FBS Ratings and Rankings of all 125 Teams after Week 5 of the 2013 Season.

Skip the indented material if you are already familiar with it. 
What makes a good prognosticator? Confidence and/or Accuracy?
And how about keeping all those conference changes straight?
Caveat emptor (Buyer beware): We make this material available in good fun out of interest for the sport of college football. Please do not rely on our material to place bets or wagers of any kind. No one knows the exact outcome of a game or a season before it is played and that is what makes it so interesting. We disclaim any and all liability for the consequences of anyone relying in any way upon our postings, analysis, links or reasoning - for which we make no warranty of accuracy. May the best team win
YPPSYS means "yards per play system", as that is our main ranking component, based primarily on stats at cfbstats.com, but we also use schedule difficulty and conference rankings as based on calculations e.g. at Massey Ratings. At YPPSYS, we regard a difference of one rating point to be worth about 7 points on the scoreboard, a calculation, of course, that is not absolute, given home field advantages, etc. We calculate the home field advantage at an average of about 3 points.
The betting lines ("odds" or "spread") used here were taken from the opening line at Oddsshark.com as of Monday, September 30, 2013. For games without a line at that time, we used the opening line as posted there later.

Thursday, October 3, 2013

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Louisiana Monroe Warhawks
The Hilltoppers were favored over the Warhawks by 3 points.
Our call: 31-27 for Western Kentucky.
Result: The Hilltoppers topped the Warhawks 31-10, outgaining them 530 to 391 yards and 7.0 to 5.8 ypp (yards per play).
This week we are 1-0 in calling the winner and 1-0 against the spread. 

Texas at Iowa State
The Longhorns were favored over the Cyclones by 7.5 points.
Our call: 34-24 for Texas.
Result: Case McCoy led the Longhorns to a late TD and the win 31-30 in a game which the Cyclones should have won, outgaining Texas 463 to 363 yards, and with bad breaks and some questionable officiating against them.
This week we are 2-0 in calling the winner and 1-1 against the spread. 

UCLA at Utah
The Bruins were favored over the Utes by 3.5 points.
Our call: 34-33 for UCLA.
Result: Six interceptions helped to salvage a 34-27 win for UCLA and keep the Bruins undefeated as both teams averaged a subpar 5.0 yards per play.
This week we are 3-0 in calling the winner and 1-2 against the spread.

Friday, October 4, 2013

BYU at Utah State
The Aggies were favored over the Cougars by 6 points.
Our call: 24-23 for BYU.
Result: The stats were closer than the score as BYU prevailed 31-14.
This week we are 4-0 in calling the winner and 2-2 against the spread. 

Nevada at San Diego State
The Aztecs were favored over the Wolfpack by 5.5  points.
Our call: 34-24 for San Diego State.
Result: The Aztecs led 44-23 after 3 quarters and then gave up 3 unanswered 4th quarter TDs to send the game into overtime, but then managed to pull out the win over the Wolf Pack 51-44. Nevada outgained San Diego State 564 to 541 but the Aztecs had the better ypp stats, 7.6 to 5.2 yards, and should have won easily, but lapsed in that 4th quarter.
This week we are 5-0 in calling the winner and 3-2 against the spread.

Saturday, October 5, 2013

Clemson at Syracuse
The Tigers were favored over Orange by 13.5 points.
Our call: 34-21 for Clemson.
Result: The Tigers rolled to an early 21-0 lead and won 49-14
This week we are 6-0 in calling the winner and 3-3 against the spread.

Georgia at Tennessee
The Bulldogs were favored over the Volunteers by 10.5 points.
Our call: 40-21 for Georgia.
Result: The Bulldogs were lucky to win 34-31 in overtime against the Vols.
This week we are 7-0 in calling the winner and 3-4 against the spread,

Mississippi at Auburn
The Bulldogs were favored over the Tigers by 2 points.
Our call: 34-28 for Mississippi.
Result: We are head coach Malzahn fans but were surprised by the 30-22 Auburn win in a game where Ole Miss outgained the Tigers 464 to 375 yards.
This week we are 7-1 in calling the winner and 3-5 against the spread.

Maryland at Florida State
The Seminoles were favored over the Terrapins by 17 points.
Our call: 35-30 for Florida State.
Result: The Terps were no match for the Seminoles who blew them out of the stadium 63-0 in an exceedingly impressive performance seen on ESPN.
This week we are 8-1 in calling the winner and 3-6 against the spread.

Arkansas at Florida
The Gators were favored over the Razorbacks by 12.5 points.
Our call: 30-14 for Florida.
Result: The  Gators beat the Razorbacks 30-10.
This week we are 9-1 in calling the winner and 4-6 against the spread.

Georgia Tech at Miami of Florida
The Hurricanes were favored over the Yellow Jackets by 4 points.
Our call: 33-21 for Miami of Florida.
Result: The Hurricanes trailed 17-7 after the first quarter but came back to win 45-30 with 21 fourth quarter points.
This week we are 10-1 in calling the winner and 5-6 against the spread.

Air Force at Navy
The Midshipmen were favored over the Falcons by 11 points.
Our call: 34-24 for Navy.
Result: The Midshipmen beat the Falcons 28-10.
This week we are 11-1 in calling the winner and 5-7 against the spread.

Penn State at Indiana
The Nittany Lions were favored over the Hoosiers by 4 points.
Our call: 34-27 for Penn State.
Result: The Hoosiers upset the Nittany Lions 44-24.
This week we are 11-2 in calling the winner and 5-8 against the spread.

Louisville at Temple
The Cardinals were favored over the Owls by 30 points.
Our call: 49-10 for Louisville.
Result: The Owls scored in the last minute to lose 30-7 in an unimpressive win for the Cardinals.
This week we are 12-2 in calling the winner and 5-9 against the spread.

Ball State at Virginia
The Cavaliers were favored over the Cardinals by 6 points.
Our call: 21-20 for Virginia.
Result: The Cardinals upset the Cavaliers 48-27.
This week we are 12-3 in calling the winner and 6-9 against the spread.

Texas Tech at Kansas
The Red Raiders were favored over the Jayhawks by 16 points.
Our call: 31-17 for Texas Tech.
Result: The Red Raiders demolished Kansas 54-16.
This week we are 13-3 in calling the winner and 6-10 against the spread.

Rutgers at SMU
The Scarlet Knights were favored over the Mustangs by 4 points.
Our call: 27-24 for Rutgers.
Result: The Scarlet Knights pulled out a 55-52 win in three overtimes.
This week we are 14-3 in calling the winner and 7-10 against the spread.

Eastern Michigan at Buffalo
The Bulls were favored over the Eagles by 13 points.
Our call: 37-17 for Buffalo.
Result: The Bulls vanquished the Eagles 42-14
This week we are 15-3 in calling the winner and 8-10 against the spread.

Michigan State at Iowa
The Hawkeyes were favored over the Spartans by 2 points.
Our call: 17-16 for Iowa.
Result: The Spartans outlasted Iowa 26-14
This week we are 15-4 in calling the winner and 9-10 against the spread.

Illinois at Nebraska
The Huskers were favored over the Illni by 10.5 points.
Our call: 37-34 for Nebraska.
Result: The Cornhuskers survived some bad red zone playcalling and other miscues to win 39-19 as Abdullah rushed for a career high 225 yards and the Big Red outgained the Illini 521 to 372 yards.
This week we are 16-4 in calling the winner and 9-11 against the spread.

Georgia State at Alabama
The Crimson Tide was favored over the Panthers by 56 points.
Our call: 63-0 for Alabama.
Result: The Crimson Tide led 38-0 at the half and cruised to a 45-3 win.
This week we are 17-4 in calling the winner and 9-12 against the spread.

North Carolina at Virginia Tech
The Hokies were favored over the Tar Heels by 7 points.
Our call: 26-7 for Virginia Tech.
Result: The Hokies beat the Tar Heels 27-17.
This week we are 18-4 in calling the winner and 10-12 against the spread.

Central Michigan at Miami of Ohio
The Chippewas were favored over the Redhawks by 4.5 points.
Our call: 28-20 for Central Michigan.
Result: The Chippewas beat the Redhawks 21-9.
This week we are 19-4 in calling the winner and 11-12 against the spread.

Army at Boston College
The Eagles were favored over the Black Knights by 13 points.
Our call: 34-27 for Boston College.
Result: The Eagles continue to show improvement and won 48-27.
This week we are 20-4 in calling the winner and 11-13 against the spread.

South Alabama at Troy
The Trojans were favored over the Jaguars by 2.5 points.
Our call: 38-27 for South Alabama.
Result: The Jaguars lost a heartbreaker 34-33 after scoring what appeared to be the winnin TD in the last minute, only to have the Trojans come back quickly and score again with 7 seconds left, and then having a 1st down on the Troy 18-yard line with no time left and no chance to try the winning field goal.
This week we are 20-5 in calling the winner and 12-13 against the spread.

UTSA Texas San Antonio at Marshall
The Thundering Herd was favored over the Roadrunners by 11 points.
Our call: 30-23 for Marshall.
Result: The Thundering Herd stopped the Roadrunners 34-10.
This week we are 21-5 in calling the winner and 12-14 against the spread.

Ohio at Akron
The Bobcats were favored over the Zips by 6.5 points.
Our call: 31-30 for Ohio.
Result: The Bobcats remain unpredictable, beating the Zips handily 43-3.
This week we are 22-5 in calling the winner and 12-15 against the spread.

Florida Atlantic FAU at UAB
The Blazers were favored over the Owls by 7 points.
Our call: 31-27 for Florida Atlantic.
Result: The Owl topped the Blazers 37-23.
This week we are 23-5 in calling the winner and 13-15 against the spread.

Western Michigan at Toledo
The Rockets were favored over the Broncos by 19 points.
Our call: 34-17 for Toledo.
Result: The Rockets shot down the Broncos 47-20.
This week we are 24-5 in calling the winner and 13-16 against the spread.

East Carolina at Middle Tennessee State
The Pirates were favored over the Blue Raiders by 8 points.
Our call: 31-21 for East Carolina.
Result: The Pirates won 24-17.
This week we are 25-5 in calling the winner and 13-17 against the spread.

North Carolina State at Wake Forest
The Wolfpack was favored over the Demon Deacons by 8 points.
Our call: 28-17 for North Carolina State.
Result: The Wolfpack was surprisingly beaten by the Demon Deacons 28-13
This week we are 25-6 in calling the winner and 13-18 against the spread.

Kansas State at Oklahoma State
The Cowboys were favored over the Wildcats by 15 points.
Our call: 30-27 for Kansas State.
Result: The Cowboys beat the Wildcats 33-29.
This week we are 25-7 in calling the winner and 14-18 against the spread.

Minnesota at Michigan
The Wolverines were favored over the Golden Gophers by 21 points.
Our call: 34-17 for Michigan.
Result: The Wolverines beat the Golden Gophers 42-13.
This week we are 26-7 in calling the winner and 14-19 against the spread.

Massachusetts at Bowling Green
The Falcons were favored over the Minutemen by 23 points.
Our call: 41-17 for Bowling Green.
Result: The Falcons won 28-7.
This week we are 27-7 in calling the winner and 14-20 against the spread.

North Texas at Tulane
The Mean Green were favored over the Green Wave by 2 points.
Our call: 28-24 for Tulane.
Result: The Green Wave won 24-21
This week we are 28-7 in calling the winner and 15-20 against the spread.

Rice at Tulsa
The Golden Hurricane was favored over the Owls by 2.5 points.
Our call: 24-23 for Tulsa.
Result: The Owls beat the Golden Hurricane 30-27 in overtime.
This week we are 28-8 in calling the winner and 16-20 against the spread.

Northern Illinois at Kent State
The Huskies were favored over the Golden Flashes by 9.5 points.
Our call: 38-24 for Northern Illinois.
Result: For the fourth time this season we called the exact score in a high scoring game as the Huskies beat the Golden Flashes 38-24.
This week we are 29-8 in calling the winner and 17-20 against the spread.

Washington State at California
The Golden Bears were favored over the Cougars by 1.5 points.
Our call: 31-23 for Washington State.
Result: The Cougars upset the Golden Bears easily 44-22.
This week we are 30-8 in calling the winner and 18-20 against the spread.

Florida International FIU at Southern Miss
The Golden Eagles were favored over the Golden Panthers by 17 points.
Our call: 30-14 for Southern Miss.
Result: The Golden Eagles lost again 24-23.
This week we are 30-9 in calling the winner and 19-20 against the spread. 

Central Florida UCF at Memphis
The Knights were favored over the Tigers by 10.5 points.
Our call: 34-17 for UCF.
Result: The Knights won 24-17.
This week we are 31-9 in calling the winner and 19-21 against the spread. 

Fresno State at Idaho
The Bulldogs were favored over the Vandals by 25 points.
Our call: 38-21 for Fresno State.
Result: The undefeated Bulldogs rolled 61-14 over the Vandals.
This week we are 32-9 in calling the winner and 19-22 against the spread. 

Oregon at Colorado
The Ducks were favored over the Buffaloes by 36.5 points.
Our call: 44-14 for Oregon.
Result: The Ducks made short work of Colorado 57-16.
This week we are 33-9 in calling the winner and 19-23 against the spread.  

Cincinnati at South Florida
The Bearcats were favored over the Bulls by 13.5 points.
Our call: 28-21 for Cincinnati.
Result: The Bulls upset the Bearcats 26-20 for their first win of the season under new head coach Taggart.
This week we are 33-10 in calling the winner and 20-23 against the spread.   

LSU at Mississippi State
The Tigers were favored over the Bulldogs by 9.5 points.
Our call: 37-21 for LSU.
Result: The Tigers struggled with the Bulldogs for three quarters before scoring 28 unanswered points in the 4th quarter to win 59-26.
This week we are 34-10 in calling the winner and 21-23 against the spread.  

TCU at Oklahoma
The Sooners were favored over the Horned Frogs by 10 points.
Our call: 33-17 for Oklahoma.
Result: The Sooners squeaked out a 20-17 win. 
This week we are 35-10 in calling the winner and 21-24 against the spread.   

New Mexico State at New Mexico
The Lobos were favored over the Aggies by 7 points.
Our call: 40-31 for New Mexico.
Result: The Lobos demolished the Aggies 66-17.
This week we are 36-10 in calling the winner and 22-24 against the spread.    

Texas State at Louisiana Lafayette ULL
The Ragin' Cajuns were favored over the Bobcats by 10 points.
Our call: 27-24 for Louisiana Lafayette.
Result: The Ragin' Cajuns won easily 48-24.
This week we are 37-10 in calling the winner and 22-25 against the spread.  

Kentucky at South Carolina
The Gamecocks were favored over the Wildcats by 21 points.
Our call: 42-24 for South Carolina.
Result: The Gamecocks won 35-28.
This week we are 38-10 in calling the winner and 23-25 against the spread. 

Missouri at Vanderbilt
The Commodores were favored over the Tigers by 2.5 points.
Our call: 31-30 for Vanderbilt.
Result: The Tigers won easily over Vanderbilt 51-28
This week we are 38-11 in calling the winner and 24-25 against the spread. 


Notre Dame at Arizona State
The Sun Devils were favored over the Fighting Irish by 6.5 points.
Our call: 34-27 for Arizona State.
Result: In a mild surprise, the Fighting Irish upset the Sun Devils 37-34.
This week we are 38-12 in calling the winner and 24-26 against the spread. 

Louisiana Tech at UTEP Texas El Paso
The Miners were favored over the Bulldogs by 1.5 points.
Our call: 34-28 for Louisiana Tech.
Result: The Bulldogs beat the Miners 38-35.
This week we are 39-12 in calling the winner and 25-26 against the spread.  

West Virginia at Baylor
The Bears were favored over the Mountaineers by 30 points.
Our call: 49-17 for Baylor.
Result: The Bears continue to put up amazing offensive stats under head coach Art Briles and their "big play offense", beating the Mountaineers 73-42 and piling up a Big 12 record 864 yards total offense in spite of FOUR turnovers. Baylor led 56-14 at halftime in scoring more than 70 points for the 3rd straight game after 69-3 win in their opener against Wofford.
This week we are 40-12 in calling the winner and 26-26 against the spread.  

Ohio State at Northwestern
The Buckeyes were favored over the Wildcats by 5.5 points.
Our call: 34-27 for Ohio State.
Result: The Buckeyes won their 18th straight game with a 40-30 win over the Wildcats, thanks to 20 4th quarter points, 6 on a fumble recovery in the end zone as game time expired.
This week we are 41-12 in calling the winner and 27-26 against the spread. 

Washington at Stanford
The Cardinal was favored over the Huskies by 6.5 points.
Our call: 31-24 for Stanford.
Result: The Cardinal pulled out a tough 31-28 victory over the Huskies, in spite of being outgained 489 to 279 yards, as Washington's Keith Price completed 33 of 48 passes for 350 yards, 2 TDs and 1 interception. Strong rushing teams will not beat Stanford, but a top passing team could.
This week we are 42-12 in calling the winner and 27-27 against the spread.  

Sunday, October 5, 2013

San Jose State at Hawaii
The Spartans were favored over the Warriors by 4.5 points.
Our call: 28-23 for San Jose State.
Result: The Spartans topped the Warriors 37-27.
This week we are 43-12 in calling the winner and 28-27 against the spread. 


State by State Lineup of Harm Already Being Caused by the Government Shutdown

One Nation Under Shutdown: Here's How Congress Is Hurting Your State

Game Theory and the Strategy of Conflict in Analyzing the Government Shutdown and Why President Obama Has No Choice But to Stand Firm Against an Extremist-Led GOP

In examining the current government shutdown issues, Russell Korobkin at the Los Angeles Times invokes the conflict theories of Nobel Prize-winning game theorist Thomas Schelling to make the situation more understandable, especially in terms of the options available to U.S. President Barack Obama, who can not afford to give in under current circumstances.

See Staring down the irrational wing of the GOP.

Obstructionist Republicans Backtracking and Trying to Save Face in the Political Realization of the Enormity of their Shutdown Error

At the New York Times:

Now Republicans Want a ‘Dialogue’.

The extremist-led House Republicans have clearly lost the battle over Obamacare, but we are expecting more of the same nonsense when the debt ceiling comes on the table.


<<#justvote>> Hashtag says it all re "Shutdown Showdown" as the LAW will ultimately win and the OUTLAWS will ultimately lose, in best American tradition

See White House at http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2013/10/04/west-wing-week-100413-or-justvote-and-end-shutdown and note there is a "White House" App.

Millions of Americans Flocking to Obamacare

The New York Times reports on millions of Americans flocking to Obamacare as a Pent-Up Demand for Health Insurance.

The Executive Bypass: President Obama Could Bypass Congress and End the Shutdown by Invoking Danger to National Security

A Reuters article at Obama, congressional leaders still deadlocked on shutdown contains the following significant paragraphs:

""Am I exasperated? Absolutely I'm exasperated. Because this is entirely unnecessary," Obama told CNBC television in an interview before meeting the congressional leaders. "I am exasperated with the idea that unless I say to 20 million people, 'You can't have health insurance,' these folks will not reopen the government. That is irresponsible."

The U.S. Army's top general said the shutdown was significantly harming day-to-day operations, and intelligence leaders say it is undermining their ability to monitor threats. A Federal Reserve official said it could delay the central bank's ability to assess whether its monetary stimulus efforts are still needed."

As we noted in our previous posting on the Antideficiency Act -- http://lawpundit.blogspot.com/2013/10/antideficiency-act-prohibits-government.html -- the President could bypass Congressional failure to pass a budget and end the shutdown for ALL federal government services by invoking Presidential powers if the shutdown as a whole imminently endangered life, safety (e.g. national security) or property, which -- as we see from the above quoted material -- the shutdown clearly does endanger.

We say ALL services because the artificial division of federal government services into allegedly "essential" and " non-essential" categories is legally meaningless because there would be no consensus on any such an ill-advised and grotesque division. All federal services are needed, by definition, even if their essentiality is "politically" disputed. But politics is not law.

Hence, in our view President Obama could theoretically end the shutdown and restart the federal government -- thus essentially forcing actual passage of a budget by Congress, a budget which would then determine after the fact what is funded and what is not.

As far as recourse in such a case to the conservative-dominated U.S. Supreme Court is concerned, that  presents no real danger since the Justices are not empowered to second-guess the President and shut down the federal government. At the worst, they could only wag their Constitutional finger at the President's decision and challenge the imminent danger to national security, which would be foolish. Obama's only political risk would be impeachment, which presents no actual risk in the current Democratic Party controlled Senate.

We are guessing the President is leaving this essentially simple if Constitutionally novel solution in his back pocket in case all else fails since it could be seen as an undesirable solution politically, putting the President on the Constitutional firing line. A President of strong character would have no problem with this solution.

Right now, the bulk of the political heat is increasingly and rightly on the obstructing Republicans, who are losing thousands of moderate voters -- those swing voters  who often decide elections -- for every day the shutdown continues and as long as the GOP remains under the thumb of right wing extremists and anarchists.

Indeed, we may be witnessing an irrevocable split of the GOP into two factions of pragmatists and fundamentalists, who in fact have little in common.

Even if the GOP survives this chaos, its chances for the future recede with every new demographic day as their aging Party base shrinks steadily.

Time is on the side of the Democratic Party.

We say that as non-partisan centrists.

If the GOP is to survive, they will have to abandon extremism and return to solid American values, and they will have to abandon obstructionism as their leading party platform.

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