Tuesday, September 24, 2013

2013 FBS College Football Rankings for all 125 Teams After Week 4 by SportPundit

Below are the 2013 FBS College Football Rankings after WEEK 4 by SportPundit. The high ratings for Oregon, Baylor and Florida State will drop as they face stiffer competition, but for now, they top the list.

Note that we do not have the time to do this every week, but those interested can update the stats for their use on their own in coming weeks as many changes will still surely take place this early in the season. The yards per play stats are likely to be more useful when a good number of representative games have been played in the course of a season.

Please read the indented material unless you are already familiar with it.
Caveat emptor (Buyer beware): We make this material available in good fun out of interest for the sport of college football. Please do not rely on our material to place bets or wagers of any kind. No one knows the exact outcome of a game or a season before it is played and that is what makes it so interesting. We disclaim any and all liability for the consequences of anyone relying in any way upon our postings, analysis, links or reasoning - for which we make no warranty of accuracy. May the best team win.

These early season ratings and rankings are based in part on our primary measure of "net average yards per play advantage" (NAYPPA), a specific predictive calculation which we were the first to implement, minus a calculation based on the schedule difficulty and a penalty for losses. Because of FCS scheduling, gauging schedule difficulty at this point in the season is largely guesswork!

Yards per play stats are taken from cfbstats.com. In recent years, an average FBS team gained ca. 5.4 yards per play on offense and allowed ca. 5.4 yards per play on defense, a statistic that holds fairly constant.
 
Massey Ratings schedule difficulty ratings were sourced in part, but we also use subjective judgments and adjustments to handle schedule difficulty, whereby -- for these rankings and ratings --  from the NAYPPA data, we subtract .01 times 2x the schedule difficulty up to 50, and .01 times 3x the schedule difficulty for 55 and up. We subtract .2 for every loss. The system is a bit unwieldy for calculation, but we have to account for strong teams beating up on weak ones.

As a measuring stick, note that the best college teams of all time had a NAYPPA of not greater than 3.0 for an entire season. Schedules have become easier recently, e.g. through FCS scheduling, and Boise State had a 3.5 season NAYPPA three years ago but lost a game. According to the yards-per-play standard, last year's Alabama team would have been ranked among the best teams ever, had they not lost to Texas A&M. But they did lose.

See Best Teams Ever: (top three as examples below)
In past recent years, an average FBS team gained ca. 5.4 yards per play on offense and allows ca. 5.4 yards per play on defense, a statistic that holds fairly constant.

THE 2013 SportPundit & YPPSYS TEAM RANKINGS AND RATINGS after WEEK 4

Team
Rank
AFTER
Week
- 4 -
2013
by 
Sport
Pundit
AFTER
Week
 - 4 -
2013

* =
adjustment

NAYPPA
net average yards per play advantage offense over defense based on stats from cfbstats.com
(our calculation) 


yards
per
play offense

yards
per
play defense


Schedule difficulty
*plus or minus  subjective adjustments*
 (calculation based in part on Massey Ratings AND also a lot on our own past ratings and rankings)


W-L
(won
-loss)
record
2013

YPPSYS
Team
Rating NAYPPA
minus .01 x
2x schedule difficulty up to 50 minus 3x schedule difficulty thereafter
minus .2 for every loss.

1 Oregon 5.3

9.3
4.0

80
3-0
+2.9

2 Baylor
6.0


9.8
3.8


110

3-0

+2.7

Florida State
4.8

8.8
4.0

80
3-0
+2.4
Alabama
0.5

6.3
5.8

50
3-0
-0.5* adjusted to
+0.7

5 LSU 2.9

7.5
4.6

80
4-0
+0.5
6 Texas A&M 1.5

7.9
6.4

50

3-1

+0.5 

7 Georgia 2.1

7.8
5.7

55
2-1
+0.4
8 Ohio State 2.7

6.9
4.2

80
4-0
+0.3
9 Louisville 4.0

7.9
3.9

125
4-0
+0.3
10 UCLA 2.9

7.3
4.4

90
3-0
+0.2
11 Washington 3.7

7.5
3.8

115
3-0
+0.2
12 Miami (Florida) 2.9

7.1
4.2

90
3-0
+0.2
13Stanford 1.7

6.3
4.6

60
3-0
-0.1
14 Clemson 0.1

5.6
5.5

50
3-0
-1.4
 adjusted to
0.0

15 South Carolina
1.8


7.0
5.2

55
2-1
0.0
16 Oklahoma1.5

6.1
4.6

55
3-0
-0.2
17 Florida1.5

5.4
3.9

50
2-1
-0.2
18 Maryland 3.0

7.0
4.0

110
4-0
-0.3
19 Utah 2.2

7.4
5.2

80
2-1
-0.4
20 Georgia Tech 2.1

6.6
4.5

90
3-0
-0.6

21 UCF 2.4

7.2
4.8

100
3-0
-0.6
22 Michigan 1.3

6.0
4.7

75
4-0
-0.9
23 Oklahoma St. 1.9

6.6
4.7

95
3-0
-0.9
24 Mississippi 1.4

6.2
4.8

75
3-0
-0.9
25 Auburn 0.3

6.1
5.8

50
3-1
-0.9
26 Wisconsin
4.2


8.0
3.8


165

3-1

-0.9

27 Arizona State
0.1


5.6
5.5


50
2-1
-0.9
28 BYU 0.4

5.2
4.8

50
1-2
-1.0
29 Texas 0.5

6.3
5.8

50
2-2
-1.0
30 Washington St. 1.8

5.8
4.0

90
3-1
-1.1
31 Kansas State 1.4

6.5
5.1

70
2-2
-1.1
32 Virginia Tech 1.1

4.7
3.6

70
3-1
-1.2
33 USC 1.4

5.1
3.7

80
3-1
-1.2
34 Penn State 1.8

6.2
4.4

100
3-1
-1.3
35 Northwestern 1.4

6.6
5.2

90
4-0
-1.3
36 Notre Dame 0.9

5.8
4.9

70
3-1
-1.4
37 Texas Tech 1.5

6.2
4.7

95
4-0
-1.4
38 Arizona 1.9

6.3
4.4

110
3-0

-1.4
39 North Carolina -0.1

5.4
5.5

45
1-2
-1.4
40 Virginia -0.2

4.4
4.6

50
2-1
-1.4
41 N.C. State 0.7

5.8
5.1

65
2-1
-1.5
42 Michigan State 1.7

4.7
3.0

100
3-1
-1.5
43 Utah State
1.9


6.3
4.4


100

2-2

-1.5

44 TCU 0.2

5.3
5.1

55
1-2
-1.7
45 Mississippi St.
1.3


6.3
5.0


90

2-2

-1.8

46 Missouri 1.3

6.6
5.3

110
3-0
-1.9
47 Vanderbilt 1.0

6.1
5.1

90
2-2
-2.1
48 North. Illinois 0.6

6.4
5.9

90
3-0
-2.1
49 Toledo 0.2

5.9
5.7

60
2-2
-2.2
50 Oregon State -0.1

6.4
6.5

65
3-1
-2.2
51 Nebraska -0.3

6.3
6.6

55*
3-1
-2.2
52 Tennessee 0.9

5.2
6.1

90
2-2
-2.2
53 Iowa
1.0


5.5
4.5

100
3-1
-2.2
54 Fresno State -0.5

5.6
6.1

90
3-0
-2.2
55  Rutgers 1.5

6.0
4.5

120
3-1
-2.3
56 Minnesota 0.5

6.0
5.5

125
4-0
-2.3
57 Illinois -0.1

6.4
6.5

70
2-1
-2.4
58 West Virginia 0.9

5.9
5.0

95
2-2
-2.4
59 Syracuse 0.5

5.5
5.0

85
2-2
-2.4
60 Connecticut -1.0

4.6
5.6

40
0-3
-2.4
61 Colorado 1.8

6.1
4.3

140*
2-0
-2.4
62 UTSA 0.1

5.9
5.8

70
2-2
-2.4
63 Pittsburgh 1.1

7.7
6.6

110
2-1
-2.4
64 Marshall  1.8

5.8
4.0

130
2-2
-2.5
65 Navy 1.2

7.3
6.1

125
2-0
-2.5
66 Wyoming 1.5

6.8
5.3

125
3-1
-2.5
67 Cincinnati 2.1

6.4
4.3

150
3-1
-2.6
68 Houston 1.6

6.4
5.0

140
3-0
-2.6
69 Boston College -0.7

5.1
5.8

60
2-1
-2.7
70 Indiana 1.6

7.2
5.6

130*
2-2
-2.7
71 Arkansas 1.3

5.8
4.5

130
3-1
-2.8
72 Kentucky 1.8

7.3
5.5

140
1-2
-2.8
73 Boise State 0.0


5.6
5.6

80
2-2
-2.8
74 San Diego St. -1.5

4.5
6.0

40
0-3
-2.9
75 Iowa State -0.5

5.2
5.7

65
0-2
-2.9
76 SMU -0.4

5.5
5.9

70
1-2
-2.9
77 Duke 0.5

6.0
5.5

100
2-2
-2.9
78 San Jose St. 1.2

6.1
4.9

125*
1-2
-2.9

79 Nevada -2.2

4.8
7.0

20*
2-2
-3.0
80 East Carolina 0.5

5.1
4.6

110
2-1
-3.0
81 Bowling Green 0.8

6.5
5.7

120
3-1
-3.0
82 Louis.-Lafayette 0.0

6.0
6.0

90
2-2
-3.1
83 Tulsa -0.9

4.8
5.7

60
1-2
-3.1
84 UNLV 0.3

5.3
5.0

100
2-2
-3.1
85 Ohio -0.3

5.7
6.0

85

3-1

-3.1

86 Mid. Tennessee 0.1

5.5
5.4

100
3-1
-3.1
87 South Alabama 0.6

5.9
5.3

120
2-1
-3.2
88 Memphis 0.7

5.4
4.7

110
1-2
-3.2
89 North Texas -1.7

5.4
7.1

55*
2-2
-3.4
90 Southern Miss -0.4

4.6
5.0

80
0-3
-3.4
91 Akron -0.5

5.6
6.1

80
1-3
-3.5
92 West. Kentucky -0.5

6.6
6.1

90
2-2
-3.6
93 Rice -0.8

5.4
6.2

80
1-2
-3.6
94 California -1.5

5.9
7.4

55
1-2
-3.6
95 Ball State 1.5

6.9
5.4

165*
3-1
-3.6
96 Louis.-Monroe 
-1.7


4.6
6.3


60*

2-2

-3.7
97 Wake Forest 0.4

4.9
4.5

125
2-2
-3.7
98 Army -0.4

5.5
6.0

90
1-3
-3.7
99  Buffalo -2.7

4.3
7.0

50
1-2
-3.9
100 Tulane -0.2

4.9
5.1

110
2-2
-3.9
101  Kansas 0.1

5.0
4.9

130
2-1
-4.0
102 Colorado State -0.9

5.1
6.0

90
1-2
-4.0
103 Hawaii -1.5

4.0
5.5

60
0-3
-4.1
104   Cent. Michigan  -0.8

5.3
6.1

90
1-3
-4.1
105  Florida Atlantic  -1.5

4.3
5.8

70
1-3
-4.1
106 South Florida -0.8

4.2
5.0

90
0-3
-4.1
107 Purdue -2.0

4.0
6.0

55
1-3
-4.2
108 Louisiana Tech -0.1

5.1
5.2

115
1-3
-4.2
109 Kent State -2.8

4.3
7.1


40
1-3
-4.2
110 Air Force -1.1

5.4
6.5

85
1-3
-4.2
111 Arkansas State 0.3

6.3
6.0

140
2-2
-4.3

112   West. Michigan -1.4

4.3
5.7

70

0-4
-4.3
113 Texas State -0.6

4.3
4.9

150
2-1
-4.3
114 Temple -2.0

4.6
6.6

60
0-3
-4.4

115 Troy -0.2

6.2
6.4

130
2-2
-4.5
116 UAB
0.0


6.1
6.1


140

1-2

-4.6

117 New Mexico -1.7

5.4
7.1

90
1-2
-4.8
118 Idaho -2.5

4.6
7.1

60
0-4
-5.1
119 UTEP  -2.0

5.5
7.5

100
1-2
-5.4
120 East. Michigan  -2.4

4.7
7.1

90
1-3
-5.5
121 New Mexico St. -2.7

5.2
7.9

80

0-4

-5.7
122 Fl. Int'l FIU  -4.3

2.8
7.1

30
0-4
-5.7
123 Miami (Ohio) -3.6

2.8
6.4

60
0-3
-6.0
124 Massachusetts -3.6

4.0
7.6

60
0-4
-6.2
125 Georgia State -0.8

5.3
6.1

170
0-4
-6.7

See our 2013 Preseason Rankings Here.

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