Monday, September 23, 2013

Week 4 2013 College Football FBS Game Prediction RESULTS by SportPundit

Week 4 2013 College Football FBS Game Prediction RESULTS by SportPundit

Update: we finished Week 4 at 46-12 in calling the winner and 44-14 against the spread. Please note that doing that well against the spread is rare, and next week we could just as easily go 14-44, if luck went against us, so no reliance can be placed on these results for future weeks. 

After the first four weeks of the season we are now 216-48 in calling the winner and 139-91-2 against the spread.

These were our College Football Prediction RESULTS for Week 4 2013 relying on YPPSYS, our Yards Per Play System and our FBS Ratings and Rankings of all 125 Teams after Week 3.

Skip the indented material if you are already familiar with it. 
What makes a good prognosticator? Confidence and/or Accuracy?
And how about keeping all those conference changes straight?

Caveat emptor (Buyer beware): We make this material available in good fun out of interest for the sport of college football. Please do not rely on our material to place bets or wagers of any kind. No one knows the exact outcome of a game or a season before it is played and that is what makes it so interesting. We disclaim any and all liability for the consequences of anyone relying in any way upon our postings, analysis, links or reasoning - for which we make no warranty of accuracy. May the best team win
YPPSYS means "yards per play system", as that is our main ranking component, based primarily on stats at cfbstats.com, but we also use schedule difficulty and conference rankings as based on calculations e.g. at Massey Ratings. At YPPSYS, we regard a difference of one rating point to be worth about 7 points on the scoreboard, a calculation, of course, that is not absolute, given home field advantages, etc. We calculate the home field advantage at an average of about 3 points.

The betting lines ("odds" or "spread") used here were taken from
the College Football Prediction Tracker as of Monday, September 16, 2013, 10:22 AM, or, if CFPT did not have the odds, from Oddsshark as of September 16, 2013. Please be aware that odds often change over time clear up to game time, but we did not change them here, using the spreads from the above sources as our comparison odds!
Thursday, September 19, 2013

Clemson Tigers at North Carolina State Wolfpack
The Tigers were favored over the Wolfpack by 14.5 points.
Our call: 27-26 for the Wolfpack
Result: 26-14 for Clemson. 
This week we are 0-1 in calling the winner and 1-0 against the spread. 
Clemson won 26-14 with the help of a controversial call that cost the Wolfpack a touchdown at a critical time in a game fairly even in terms of the stats.

Friday, September 20, 2013

Boise State Broncos at Fresno State Bulldogs

The Bulldogs were favored over the Broncos by 3.5 points. 
Our call: 31-30 for the Broncos.
Result: 41-40 for Bulldogs.
This week we are 0-2 in calling the winner and 2-0 against the spread. 
Boise State outgained the Bulldogs 561 to 522 yards but turned the ball over twice and Fresno State rallied to win 41-40.


Saturday, September 21, 2013

Michigan Wolverines at Connecticut Huskies
The Wolverines were favored over the Huskies by 17.5 points.
Our call: 38-24 for the Wolverines.
Result: 24-21 for Michigan.
This week we are 1-2 in calling the winner and 3-0 against the spread.

San Jose State Spartans at Minnesota Golden Gophers
The Golden Gophers were favored over the Spartans by 5.5 points.
Our call: 26-24 for the Spartans.
Result: 43-24 for Minnesota.
This week we are 1-3 in calling the winner and 3-1 against the spread.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Army Black Knights
The Demon Deacons were favored over the Black Knights by 3.5 points.
Our call: 31-27 for the Black Knights.
Result: 25-11 for Wake Forest.
This week we are 1-4 in calling the winner and 3-2 against the spread.

FIU (Florida International) Golden Panthers at Louisville Cardinals
The Cardinals were favored over the Golden Panthers by 42 points.
Our call: 56-7 for the Cardinals.
Result: 72-0 for Louisville.
This week we are 2-4 in calling the winner and 4-2 against the spread.
Louisville is beginning to look like a national championship contender.

Vanderbilt Commodores at Massachusetts Minutemen
The Commodores were favored over the Minutemen by 31 points.
Our call: 44-14 for the Commodores.
Result: 24-7 for Vanderbilt.
This week we are 3-4 in calling the winner and 5-2 against the spread.
A strong performance by outmatched Massachusetts against an SEC opponent.

Florida A&M Rattlers at Ohio State Buckeyes
The Buckeyes were favored over the Rattlers by 51 points.
Our call: 59-7 for the Buckeyes.
Result: 76-0 for Ohio State.
This week we are 4-4 in calling the winner and 6-2 against the spread.
Ohio State is beginning to look like the team we predicted as the national champion in our preseason rankings.

Marshall Thundering Herd at Virginia Tech Hokies
The Hokies were favored over the Thundering Herd by 10.5 points.
Our call: 21-17 for the Hokies.
Result: The Hokies struggled to a 29-21 win over the Thundering Herd in 3 overtimes.
This week we are 5-4 in calling the winner and 7-2 against the spread.

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at Kansas Jayhawks
The Jayhawks were favored over the Bulldogs by 9 points.
Our call: 28-24 for the Jayhawks.
Result: Kansas beat Louisiana Tech 13-10.
This week we are 6-4 in calling the winner and 8-2 against the spread.

Toledo Rockets at Central Michigan Chippewas
The Rockets were favored over the Chippewas by 14 points.
Our call: 31-21 for the Rockets.
Result: 38-17 for Toledo.
This week we are 7-4 in calling the winner and 8-3 against the spread.

North Carolina Tar Heels at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
The Yellow Jackets were favored over the Tar Heels by 6 points.
Our call: 38-23 for the Yellow Jackets.
Result: 28-20 for Georgia Tech.
This week we are 8-4 in calling the winner and 9-3 against the spread.

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at FAU (Florida Atlantic) Owls
The Blue Raiders were favored over the Owls by 5 points.
Our call: 23-20 for the Owls.
Result:  42-35 for the Blue Raiders in overtime as the Owls become competitive.
This week we are 8-5 in calling the winner and 9-4 against the spread.

Western Michigan Broncos at Iowa Hawkeyes
The Hawkeyes were favored over the Broncos by 17 points.
Our call: 31-17 for the Hawkeyes.
Result:  The Hawkeyes rolled unexpectedly over the Broncos 59-3.
This week we are 9-5 in calling the winner and 9-5 against the spread.

North Texas Mean Green at Georgia Bulldogs
The Bulldogs were favored over the Mean Green by 32 points.
Our call: 48-17 for the Bulldogs.
Result: The gutsy Mean Green pretty much played even for half a game and tied the score 21-21 early in the 3rd quarter but then fell ultimately 45-21 to a much stronger opponent.
This week we are 10-5 in calling the winner and 10-5 against the spread.

Pittsburgh Panthers at Duke Blue Devils
The Panthers were favored over the Blue Devils by 4 points.
Our call: 38-28 for the Panthers.
Result:  for .
Pitt led 51-28 with 3:18 left in the 3rd quarter and then collapsed, presumably due to timid and/or poor coaching (playing "not to lose" rather than playing "to WIN") as the Panthers were lucky to escape with a 58-55 victory.
This week we are 11-5 in calling the winner and 10-6 against the spread.

Tulane Green Wave at Syracuse Orange
The Orange were favored over the Green Wave by 14 points.
Our call: 30-17 for Syracuse.
Result: 52-17 for the Orange.
This week we are 12-5 in calling the winner and 10-7 against the spread.

Ball State Cardinals at Eastern Michigan Eagles
The Cardinals were favored over the Eagles by 11.5 points.
Our call: 34-24 for the Cardinals.
Result: Ball State topped the Eagles 51-20.
This week we are 13-5 in calling the winner and 10-8 against the spread.

Jacksonville State Gamecocks at Georgia State Panthers
The Gamecocks were favored over the Panthers by 9.5 points.
Our call: 31-24 for the Gamecocks.
Result: 32-26 for Jacksonville State in overtime.
This week we are 14-5 in calling the winner and 11-8 against the spread.

Austin Peay Governors at Ohio Bobcats
The Bobcats were favored over the Governors by 29 points.
Our call:45-7 for the Bobcats.
Result: 38-0 for Ohio.
This week we are 15-5 in calling the winner and 12-8 against the spread.

Houston Cougars vs. Rice Owls
The Cougars were favored over the Owls by 1.5 points.
Our call: 27-26 for the Owls.
Result: 31-26 for Houston.
This week we are 15-6 in calling the winner and 12-9 against the spread.

Northwestern State Demons at UAB Blazers
The Blazers were favored over the Demons by 15 points.
Our call: 57-17 for the Blazers.
Result: 52-28 for the Blazers.
This week we are 16-6 in calling the winner and 13-9 against the spread.

Idaho State Bengals at Washington Huskies
The Huskies were favored over the Bengals by 49 points.
Our call: 52-0 for the Huskies.
Result: The Huskies beat the Bengals 56-0.
This week we are 17-6 in calling the winner and 14-9 against the spread.

Maine Black Bears at Northwestern Wildcats 
The Wildcats were favored over the Black Bears by 28 points.
Our call: 38-17 for the Wildcats.
Result: 35-21 for Northwestern.
This week we are 18-6 in calling the winner and 15-9 against the spread.

Utah State Aggies at USC Trojans
The Trojans were favored over the Aggies by 6.5 points.
Our call: 27-24 for the Aggies.
Result: 17-14 for USC.
This week we are 18-7 in calling the winner and 16-9 against the spread.

Purdue Boilermakers at Wisconsin Badgers
The Badgers were favored over the Boilermakers by 23.5 points.
Our call: 38-14 for the Badgers.
Result: 41-10 for Wisconsin.
This week we are 19-7 in calling the winner and 17-9 against the spread.

Arkansas Razorbacks at Rutgers Scarlet Knights
The Razorbacks  and Rutgers were seen as even.
Our call: 28-27 for the Scarlet Knights.
Result: 28-24 for Rutgers.
This week we are 20-7 in calling the winner and 18-9 against the spread.

Kent State Golden Flashes at Penn State Nittany Lions
The Nittany Lions were favored over the Golden Flashes by 20.5 points.
Our call: 38-17 for the Nittany Lions.
Result: 34-0 for the Nittany Lions.
This week we are 21-7 in calling the winner and 19-9 against the spread.

West Virginia Mountaineers at Maryland Terrapins
The Terrapins were favored over the Mountaineers by 5.5 points.
Our call: 38-27 for the Terrapins.
Result: The Terrapins shut out the Mountaineers 37-0.
This week we are 22-7 in calling the winner and 20-9 against the spread.

Tennessee Volunteers at Florida Gators
The Gators were favored over the Volunteers by 16 points.
Our call: 30-17 for the Gators.
Result: 31-17 for Florida.
This week we are 23-7 in calling the winner and 21-9 against the spread.

Michigan State Spartans at Notre Dame Fighting Irish
The Fighting Irish were favored over the Spartans by 7 points.
Our call: 21-20 for the Spartans.
Result: 17-13 for Notre Dame.
This week we are 23-8 in calling the winner and 22-9 against the spread.

Murray State Racers at Bowling Green Falcons
The Falcons were favored over the Racers by 25.5 points.
Our call: 49-13 for the Falcons.
Result: 48-7 for the Falcons.
This week we are 24-8 in calling the winner and 23-9 against the spread.

VMI Keydets at Virginia Cavaliers
The Cavaliers were favored over the Keydets by 42 points.
Our call: 52-7 for the Cavaliers.
Result: 49-0 for Virginia.
This week we are 25-8 in calling the winner and 24-9 against the spread.

South Dakota State Jackrabbits at Nebraska Cornhuskers
The Huskers were favored over the Jackrabbits by 22 points.
Our call: 51-27 for the Huskers.
Result: 59-20 for the Cornhuskers.
This week we are 26-8 in calling the winner and 25-9 against the spread.

Cincinnati Bearcats at Miami (Ohio) RedHawks
The Bearcats were favored over the RedHawks by 21 points.
Our call: 41-17 for the Bearcats.
Result: 14-0 for Cincinnati.
This week we are 27-8 in calling the winner and 25-10 against the spread.

Louisiana Monroe (ULM) WarHawks at Baylor Bears
The Bears were favored over the WarHawks by 27 points.
Our call: 52-14 for the Bears.
Result: 70-7 for Baylor.
This week we are 28-8 in calling the winner and 26-10 against the spread.

Arkansas State Red Wolves at Memphis Tigers
The Red Wolves were favored over the Tigers by 6 points.
Our call: 31-27 for the Red Wolves.
Result: 31-7 for Memphis.
This week we are 28-9 in calling the winner and 27-10 against the spread.

Bethune-Cookman Wildcats at Florida State Seminoles
The Seminoles were favored over the Wildcats by 40 points.
Our call: 61-17 for the Seminoles.
Result: 54-6 for Florida State.
This week we are 29-9 in calling the winner and 28-10 against the spread.

Louisiana Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns at Akron Zips
The Ragin' Cajuns were favored over the Zips by 7.5 points.
Our call: 35-31 for the Ragin' Cajuns.
Result: 35-30 for LA Lafayette (ULL).
This week we are 30-9 in calling the winner and 29-10 against the spread.

Eastern Illinois Panthers at Northern Illinois Huskies
The Huskies were favored over the Panthers by 16.5 points.
Our call: 49-38 for the Huskies.
Result: 43-39 for Northern Illinois.
This week we are 31-9 in calling the winner and 30-10 against the spread.

Morgan State Bears at Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
The Hilltoppers were favored over the Bears by 32 points.
Our call: 38-17 for the Hilltoppers.
Result: 58-17 for Western Kentucky.
This week we are 32-9 in calling the winner and 30-11 against the spread.

Savannah State Tigers at Miami (Fla.) Hurricanes
The Hurricanes were favored over the Tigers by 60 points.
Our call: 77-7 for the Hurricanes.
Result: 77-7 for Miami. For the 3rd time this season, we have called a high-scoring game right on the money.
This week we are 33-9 in calling the winner and 31-11 against the spread.

Colorado State Rams at Alabama Crimson Tide
The Crimson Tide were favored over the Rams by 38.5 points.
Our call: 42-7 for the Crimson Tide.
Result: 31-6 for Alabama.
This week we are 34-9 in calling the winner and 32-11 against the spread.

SMU Mustangs at Texas A&M Aggies
The Aggies were favored over the Mustangs by 28.5 points.
Our call: 51-20 for the Aggies.
Result: 42-13 for Texas A&M.
This week we are 35-9 in calling the winner and 33-11 against the spread.

Texas State Bobcats at Texas Tech Red Raiders
The Red Raiders were favored over the Bobcats by 25.5 points.
Our call: 41-14 for the Red Raiders.
Result: 33-7 for Texas Tech.
This week we are 36-9 in calling the winner and 34-11 against the spread.

Arizona State Sun Devils at Stanford Cardinals
The Cardinal is favored over the Sun Devils by 7.5 points.
Our call: 35-21 for Stanford.
Result: 42-28 for the Stanford Cardinal.
This week we are 37-9 in calling the winner and 35-11 against the spread.

Oregon State Beavers at San Diego State Aztecs
The Beavers were favored over the Aztecs by 11 points.
Our call: 35-30 for the Beavers.
Result: 34-30 for Oregon State.
This week we are 38-9 in calling the winner and 36-11 against the spread.

Troy Trojans at Mississippi State Bulldogs
The Bulldogs were favored over the Trojans by 14.5 points.
Our call: 41-21 for the Bulldogs.
Result: 62-7 for Mississippi State.
This week we are 39-9 in calling the winner and 37-11 against the spread.

Auburn Tigers at LSU Tigers
The Tigers of LSU were favored over the Tigers of Auburn by 16.5 points.
Our call: 41-28 for LSU.
Result: 35-21 for LSU.
This week we are 40-9 in calling the winner and 38-11 against the spread.

Missouri Tigers at Indiana Hoosiers
The Tigers were favored over the Hoosiers by 4.5 points.
Our call: 31-30 for the Hoosiers.
Result: 45-28 for Missouri.
This week we are 40-10 in calling the winner and 38-12 against the spread.

UTSA (Texas-San Antonio) Roadrunners at UTEP (Texas El Paso) Miners
The Miners were favored over the Roadrunners by 2.5 points.
Our call: 44-31 for the Roadrunners.
Result: 32-13 for Texas-San Antonio.
This week we are 41-10 in calling the winner and 39-12 against the spread.

Kansas State Wildcats at Texas Longhorns
The Longhorns were favored over the Wildcats by 6 points.
Our call: 37-28 for the Wildcats.
Result: 31-21 for Texas.
This week we are 41-11 in calling the winner and 39-13 against the spread.

Hawaii Warriors at Nevada Wolf Pack
The Wolf Pack were favored over the Warriors by 12.5 points.
Our call: 26-24 for the Wolf Pack.
Result: 31-9 for Nevada.
This week we are 42-11 in calling the winner and 39-14 against the spread.

Western Illinois Leathernecks at UNLV Rebels
The Rebels were favored over the Leathernecks by 12 points.
Our call: 34-21 for the Rebels.
Result: 38-7 for UNLV.
This week we are 43-11 in calling the winner and 40-14 against the spread.

Wyoming Cowboys at Air Force Falcons
The Cowboys were favored over the Falcons by 2.5 points.
Our call: 33-28 for Wyoming.
Result: 56-23 for Wyoming.
This week we are 44-11 in calling the winner and 41-14 against the spread.

Utah Utes at BYU Cougars
The Cougars were favored over the Utes by 7 points.
Our call: 30-28 for BYU.
Result: 20-13 for Utah.
This week we are 44-12 in calling the winner and 42-14 against the spread.

Idaho Vandals at Washington State Cougars
The Cougars were favored over the Vandals by 30.5 points.
Our call: 43-10 for Washington State.
Result: 42-0 for the Cougars.
This week we are 45-12 in calling the winner and 43-14 against the spread.

New Mexico State Aggies at UCLA Bruins
The Bruins were favored over the Aggies by 42 points.
Our call: 60-7 for the Bruins.
Result: 59-13 for UCLA.
This week we are 46-12 in calling the winner and 44-14 against the spread.

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