Wednesday, September 11, 2013

Week 3 2013 College Football FBS Game Predictions by SportPundit

Week 3 2013 College Football FBS Game Predictions by SportPundit

Here are our College Football Predictions for Week 3 2013 relying on YPPSYS, our Yards Per Play System and our "provisional" FBS Ratings and Rankings of all 125 Teams after Week 2.

UPDATE:
After a bad first week, we finished the second week 61-11 in calling the winner and 45-25-2 against the spread. After the first two weeks we are thus 121-25 in calling the winner and 64-49-2 against the spread.

Note that we have a provisional ranking after Week 2 of all the FBS teams based on our system, but it is so early in the season that this ranking, especially due to the many games with FCS teams, must be taken with a grain of salt.

Skip the indented material if you are already familiar with it. 
What makes a good prognosticator? Confidence and/or Accuracy?
And how about keeping all those conference changes straight?

Caveat emptor (Buyer beware): We make this material available in good fun out of interest for the sport of college football. Please do not rely on our material to place bets or wagers of any kind. No one knows the exact outcome of a game or a season before it is played and that is what makes it so interesting. We disclaim any and all liability for the consequences of anyone relying in any way upon our postings, analysis, links or reasoning - for which we make no warranty of accuracy. May the best team win.

Our game predictions for the 3rd week of College Football 2012 rely in part on our AFTER WEEK 2 2013 FBS Ratings and Rankings but also involve subjective judgment on our part.
YPPSYS means "yards per play system", as that is our main ranking component, based primarily on stats at cfbstats.com, but we also use schedule difficulty and conference rankings as based on calculations e.g. at Massey Ratings. At YPPSYS, we regard a difference of one rating point to be worth about 7 points on the scoreboard, a calculation, of course, that is not absolute, given home field advantages, etc. We calculate the home field advantage at an average of about 3 points.

The betting lines ("odds" or "spread") used here are taken from
the College Football Prediction Tracker as of Wednesday, September 11, 2013, 10:22 AM, or, if CFPT does not have the odds, from Oddsshark as of September 11, 2013. Please be aware that odds often change over time clear up to game time, but we do not change them here, using the spreads from the above sources as our comparison odds!
Thursday, September 12, 2013

TCU Horned Frogs at Texas Tech
The Horned Frogs are favored over the Red Raiders by 3.5 points.
Our call: 31-30 for the Red Raiders.

Troy Trojans at Arkansas State Red Wolves
The Red Wolves are favored over the Trojans by 7.5 points.
Our call:  38-28 for Arkansas State.

Tulane Green Wave at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
The Bulldogs are favored over the Green Wave by 7.5 points.
Our call:  31-23 for Louisiana State.

Friday, September 13, 2013

Air Force Falcons at Boise State Broncos
The Broncos are favored over the Air Force Falcons by 24 points.
Our call:
31-21 for Boise State.

Saturday, September 14, 2013

Stanford Cardinal at Army Black Knights
The Cardinal is favored by 28.5 points.
Our call: 54-7 for Stanford.

Louisville Cardinals at Kentucky Wildcats 
The Cardinals are favored by 13.5 points.
Our call: 44-24 for Louisville.

Akron Zips at Michigan Wolverines
The Wolverines are favored over the Zips by 37 points.
Our call: 49-7 for Michigan.

Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Oklahoma Sooners
The Sooners are favored over the Golden Hurricane by 24.5 points. 
Our call:  31-10 for Oklahoma.

UCLA Bruins at Nebraska Cornhuskers
The Huskers are favored by 4.5 points over the Bruins.
Our call: 44-27 for UCLA.

Bowling Green Falcons at Indiana Hoosiers
The Hoosiers are favored by 2.5 points over Bowling Green.
Our call: 37-27 for Bowling Green.

Western Illinois Leathernecks at Minnesota Golden Gophers
Minnesota is favored by 24 points.
Our call: 34-13 for Minnesota.

Virginia Tech Hokies at East Carolina Pirates
Virginia Tech is favored by 7.5 points.
Our call: 24-16 for the Hokies. 

Georgia State Panthers at West Virginia Mountaineers
The Mountaineers are favored by 39 points.
Our call: 47-14 for West Virginia.

Southern Miss Golden Eagles at Arkansas Razorbacks
The Razorbacks are favored by 22 points.
Our call: 33-24 for Arkansas.

Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks at Wake Forest Demon Deacons
The Demon Deacons are favored by 3 points.
Our call: 27-17 for Louisiana-Monroe.

New Mexico Lobos at Pittsburgh Panthers
The Panthers are favored by 21.5 points.
Our call: 37-27 for Pittsburgh.

Eastern Michigan Eagles at Rutgers Scarlet Knights
The Scarlet Knights are favored by 27.5 points.
Our call: 37-17 for Rutgers.

Fordham Rams at Temple Owls
The Owls are favored by 20.5 points.
Our call: 37-20 for Temple.

Fresno State Bulldogs at Colorado Buffaloes
The Bulldogs are favored by 9.5 points.
Our call:  33-24 for the Bulldogs.

Youngstown State Penguins at Michigan State Spartans
Michigan State is favored by 23 points.
Our call: 27-3 for Michigan State.

Boston College Eagles at USC Trojans
The Trojans are favored by 14 points.
Our call: 27-17 for Southern Cal.

Alabama Crimson Tide at Texas A&M Aggies
'Bama is favored by 7.5 points.
Our call: 31-30 for Texas A&M.

Tennessee Volunteers at Oregon Ducks
The Ducks are favored by 27.5 points.
Our call: 51-17 for Oregon.

Nevada Wolf Pack at Florida State Seminoles
The Seminoles are favored by 34 points.
Our call: 58-17 for Florida State.

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Duke Blue Devils
The Yellow Jackets are favored by 8.5 points.
Our call: 40-21 for Georgia Tech.

Stony Brook Seawolves at Buffalo Bulls
The Bulls are favored by 13 points.
Our call: 31-30 for Buffalo.

Delaware Fightin Blue Hens at Navy Midshipmen
The Midshipmen are favored by 17 points.
Our call: 45-27 for Navy.

Wagner Seahawks at Syracuse Orange
The Orange are favored by 29 points.
Our call: 51-10 for Syracuse.

Ball State Cardinals at North Texas Mean Green
The Cardinals are favored by 3 points.
Our call: 31-23 for Ball State.

Northern Colorado Bears at Wyoming Cowboys
The Cowboys are favored by 26 points.
Our call: 45-27 for Wyoming.

Northern Illinois Huskies at Idaho Vandals
The Northern Illinois Huskies are favored by 28.5 points.
Our call: 41-23 for Northern Illlinois.

Washington Huskies at Illinois Fighting Illini
The Huskies are favored by 9.5 points.
Our call: 39-27 for Washington.

Iowa Hawkeyes at Iowa State Cyclones
The Hawkeyes are favored by 2 points.
Our call: 31-27 for the Hawkeyes.

UCF Knights at Penn State Nittany Lions
The Nittany Lions are favored by 5.5 points.
Our call: 27-17 for Penn State.

Bethune-Cookman Wildcats at Florida International Golden Panthers
The Wildcats are favored by 3 points.
Our call: 27-23 for Bethune-Cookman.

Southern Utah Thunderbirds at Washington State Cougars
The Cougars are favored by 22 points.
Our call: 31-14 for Washington State.

Ohio State Buckeyes at California Golden Bears
The Buckeyes are favored by ?? points.
Our call: 45-14 for Ohio State.

Kent State Golden Flashes at LSU Tigers
The Tigers are favored by 36.5 points.
Our call: 51-14 for LSU.

Vanderbilt Commodores at South Carolina Gamecocks
The Gamecocks are favored by 13.5 points.
Our call: 42-21 for South Carolina.

Mississippi State Bulldogs at Auburn Tigers
The Tigers are favored by 6.5 points.
Our call: 40-17 for Auburn.

Florida Atlantic Owls at South Florida Bulls
The Bulls are favored by 12.5 points.
Our call: 24-17 for South Florida.

Nicholls State Colonels at Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns
The Ragin' Cajuns are favored by 26.5 points.
Our call: 37-27 for Louisiana-Lafayette.

Northwestern State Demons at Cincinnati Bearcats
The Bearcats are favored by 28.5 points.
Our call: 31-21 for Cincinnati.

Massachusetts Minutemen at Kansas State Wildcats
The Wildcats are favored by 38.5 points.
Our call: 53-10 for K-State.

Memphis Tigers at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
The Blue Raiders are favored by 6.5 points.
Our call: 31-24 for Middle Tennessee.

Eastern Washington Eagles at Toledo Rockets
The Rockets are favored by 6 points.
Our call: 27-24 for Toledo.

Lamar Cardinals at Oklahoma State Cowboys
The Cowboys are favored by 46 points.
Our call: 49-17 for Oklahoma State.

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at South Alabama Jaguars
The Hilltoppers are favored by 9.5 points.
Our call: 35-27 for Western Kentucky.

Maryland Terrapins at Connecticut Huskies
The Terps are favored by 7 points.
Our call: 37-28 for Maryland.

Kansas Jayhawks at Rice Owls
The Owls are favored by 6.5 points.
Our call: 34-31 for Rice.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Purdue Boilermakers
The Fighting Irish are favored by 20.5 points.
Our call: 40-10 for Notre Dame.

Mississippi Rebels at Texas Longhorns
The Longhorns are favored by 4.5 points.
Our call: 34-31 for Texas.

UTEP Texas El Paso Miners at New Mexico State Aggies
The Miners are favored by 6 points.
Our call: 42-34 for UTEP.

Marshall Thundering Herd at Ohio Bobcats
The Thundering Herd is favored by 8 points.
Our call: 31-27 for Marshall.

Weber State Wildcats at Utah State Aggies
The Aggies are favored by 37 points.
Our call: 45-16 for Utah State.

Western Michigan Broncos at Northwestern Wildcats
The Wildcats are favored by 30.5 points.
Our call: 43-10 for Northwestern.

Oregon State Beavers at Utah Utes
The Utes are favored by 3 points.
Our call: 46-21 for Utah.

Central Michigan Chippewas at UNLV Rebels
The Rebels are favored by 7 points.
Our call: 27-24 for UNLV.

Wisconsin Badgers at Arizona State Sun Devils
The Sun Devils are favored by 5 points.
Our call: 31-21 for Wisconsin.

UTSA Texas-San Antonio  Roadrunners at Arizona Wildcats
The Wildcats are favored by 26 points.
Our call: 40-20 for Arizona.

2013 FBS College Football Rankings for all 125 Teams After Week 2 by SportPundit

Below are the 2013 FBS College Football Rankings after WEEK 2 by SportPundit, which, this early in the season, can only be viewed as "provisional", as e.g. traditional ranking wisdom may suggest that teams like Baylor and Utah are ranked too high, although the current stats arguably put them that high up on the list.

Or consider that Texas A&M might be ranked higher if their starting QB had not had to sit out a half-game suspension, but we have to use the stats that we have.

Alabama may be the best team in the country by some parameters, but their yards per play stats do not show it, yet, and their thus far anemic offense may have trouble, e.g., matching the point output of the Texas A&M Aggies. We will know more after the coming weekend of play.

Similarly, as a Nebraska alum, we are Husker fans, but their defensive yards per play stats were so bad against two arguably much weaker teams that the Big Red can not be ranked higher, if yards per play is a parameter. Indeed, we worry seriously now that UCLA has the potential to run by them this weekend.

Conversely, as a Stanford alum, we are pleased that the Cardinal is right up there for now!

Oregon is on top because of stats reflecting a remarkable blow-out win over Virginia, which beat BYU (in the rain), but the Cougars then ran past Texas for a record 550 rushing yards. Can Oregon be that good? or can Texas be that bad?

Note that we do not have the time to do this every week, but those interested can update the stats for their use on their own in coming weeks as many changes will surely take place. The yards per play stats are likely to be more useful when a good number of representative games have been played in the course of a season.

Please read the indented material unless you are already familiar with it.
Caveat emptor (Buyer beware): We make this material available in good fun out of interest for the sport of college football. Please do not rely on our material to place bets or wagers of any kind. No one knows the exact outcome of a game or a season before it is played and that is what makes it so interesting. We disclaim any and all liability for the consequences of anyone relying in any way upon our postings, analysis, links or reasoning - for which we make no warranty of accuracy. May the best team win.

These early season ratings and rankings are based in part on our primary measure of "net average yards per play advantage" (NAYPPA), a specific predictive calculation which we were the first to implement, minus a calculation based on the schedule difficulty and a penalty for losses. Because of FCS scheduling, gauging schedule difficulty at this point in the season is largely guesswork!

Yards per play stats are taken from cfbstats.com. In recent years, an average FBS team gained ca. 5.4 yards per play on offense and allowed ca. 5.4 yards per play on defense, a statistic that holds fairly constant.
 
Massey Ratings schedule difficulty ratings were sourced in part, but we also use subjective judgments and adjustments to handle schedule difficulty, whereby -- for these rankings and ratings --  from the NAYPPA data, we subtract .01 times 2x the schedule difficulty up to 50, and .01 times 3x the schedule difficulty for 55 and up. We subtract .2 for every loss. The system is a bit unwieldy for calculation, but we have to account for strong teams beating up on weak ones.

As a measuring stick, note that the best college teams of all time had a NAYPPA of not greater than 3.0 for an entire season. Schedules have become easier recently, e.g. through FCS scheduling, and Boise State had a 3.5 season NAYPPA three years ago but lost a game. According to the yards-per-play standard, last year's Alabama team would have been ranked among the best teams ever, had they not lost to Texas A&M. But they did lose.

See Best Teams Ever: (top three as examples below)
In past recent years, an average FBS team gained ca. 5.4 yards per play on offense and allows ca. 5.4 yards per play on defense, a statistic that holds fairly constant.

THE 2013 SportPundit & YPPSYS TEAM RANKINGS AND RATINGS after WEEK 2

Team
Rank
AFTER
Week
- 2 -
2013
by 
Sport
Pundit
AFTER
Week
 - 2 -
2013

* =
adjustment

NAYPPA
net average yards per play advantage offense over defense based on stats from cfbstats.com
(our calculation) 


yards
per
play offense

yards
per
play defense


Schedule difficulty
*plus or minus  subjective adjustments*
 (calculation based in part on Massey Ratings AND also a lot on our own past ratings and rankings)


W-L
(won
-loss)
record
2013

YPPSYS
Team
Rating NAYPPA
minus .01 x
2x schedule difficulty up to 50 minus 3x schedule difficulty thereafter
minus .2 for every loss.

1 Oregon 5.8

9.5
3.7

110
2-0
+2.5

2Stanford 2.2

5.9
3.7

20
1-0
+1.8
3* 
Alabama
-0.3

3.3
3.6

1*
1-0
-0.3* adjusted to
+1.6

Florida State
3.1

8.5
5.4

55
1-0
+1.4
5 Baylor
5.8


9.7
3.9


150

2-0

+1.3

6 Ohio State 2.6

6.6
4.0

75
2-0
+1.1
7 Utah 3.3

8.0
4.7

80
2-0
+0.9
8 Michigan 1.8

6.6
4.8

50
2-0
+0.8
9 UCLA 3.8

7.9
4.1

100
1-0
+0.8
10 LSU 2.1

6.7
4.6

80
2-0
+0.5
11 Georgia 0.7

7.4
6.7

1
1-1
+0.5
12 South Carolina
1.8


7.2
5.4

55
1-1
+0.5
13 Louisville 4.1

8.2
4.1

120
2-0
+0.5
14 Wisconsin
5.5


8.5
3.0


170

2-0

+0.4

15 Notre Dame 1.6

7.1
5.5

55
1-1
+0.3
16 Texas A&M 1.7

7.9
6.2

80

2-0

0.0

17 Oklahoma1.0

5.4
4.4

50
2-0
0.0
18 Clemson 0.0

5.7
5.7

140*
2-0
0.0*
19 Northwestern 1.7

7.2
5.5

55
2-0
0.0
20 Washington 3.0

6.9
3.9

100*
1-0
0.0*
21 Miami (Florida) 1.5

5.9
4.4

60
2-0
-0.3
22 Florida 3.1

8.5
5.4

60
1-1
-0.3
23 Georgia Tech 5.5

9.1
3.6

200
1-0
-0.5

24 Oklahoma St. 1.5

7.0
5.5

70
2-0
-0.6
25 Utah State
1.3


6.5
5.2


55

1-1

-0.6

26 Penn State 3.2

6.4
3.2

130
2-0
-0.7
27 Bowling Green 1.6

6.4
4.8

80
2-0
-0.8
28 BYU 1.2

5.4
4.2

60
1-1
-0.8
29 Kansas State 1.1

6.3
5.2

60
1-1
-0.9
30 Auburn 1.1

6.4
5.3

70
2-0
-1.0
31 Washington St. 0.1

4.6
4.5

50
1-1
-1.1
32 Michigan State 1.4

4.0
2.6

90
2-0
-1.3
33 TCU 0.2

5.5
5.3

65
1-1
-1.3
34 Maryland 4.7

8.3
3.6

200
2-0
-1.3
35 Arizona State
3.4


6.5
3.1


160
1-0
-1.4
36 Arizona 2.4

6.4
4.0

125
2-0

-1.4
37 N.C. State 1.2

6.1
4.9

90
2-0
-1.5
38 Texas Tech 2.0

7.0
5.0

120
2-0
-1.6
39 Tennessee 1.1

6.0
4.9

100*
2-0
-1.9
40 Vanderbilt 1.8

6.5
4.7

150
1-1
-1.9
41 Missouri 1.9

6.8
4.9

130
2-0
-2.0
42 Nebraska 0.0

6.4
6.4

70*
2-0
-2.1
43 UCF 3.3

6.9
3.6

180
2-0
-2.1
44 USC 0.7

4.1
3.4

90
1-1
-2.2
45 Oregon State 0.8

6.9
5.1

95
1-1
-2.2
46 Texas 1.9

7.5
5.6

130
1-1
-2.2
47 Illinois 0.8

6.9
6.1

100
2-0
-2.2
48 Wyoming 2.4

7.7
5.3

150
1-1
-2.3
49 Virginia Tech 2.1

5.3
3.2

140
1-1
-2.3
50 Syracuse -1.7

4.5
6.2

20
1-1
-2.3
51 Mississippi 1.1

6.2
5.1

105
1-1
-2.3
52 San Jose St. 0.2

4.8
4.6

80
1-1
-2.4

53 West Virginia 0.4

5.9
5.5

85
1-1
-2.4
54 Arkansas 2.4

6.8
4.4

155
2-0
-2.4
55 North Carolina -0.5

5.2
5.7

55
1-1
-2.4
56 Pittsburgh -3.1

5.4
8.5

*0
0-1
-2.4*
57 Marshall  3.1

6.6
3.5

185
2-0
-2.4
58 Navy -0.1

6.9
7.0

80
1-0
-2.5
59 Tulsa 0.0

4.7
4.7

80
1-1
-2.6
60 Houston 1.6

6.3
4.7

140
2-0
-2.6
61 West. Kentucky -0.4

6.1
6.5

70
1-1
-2.7
62 Indiana 1.7

7.3
5.6

140
1-1
-2.7
63 Iowa
1.0


5.7
4.7

120
1-1
-2.8
64 Kentucky 3.6

8.2
4.6

115*
1-1
-2.8*
65 Boise State -0.8


4.8
5.6

60
1-1
-2.8
66 North. Illinois -0.4

5.3
5.7

80
1-0
-2.8
67 Toledo -0.6

5.0
5.6

55
0-2
-2.8
68 Ball State 0.7

6.0
5.3

120
2-0
-2.9
69 Louis.-Monroe 
1.0


5.7
4.7


125

1-1

-2.9
70 Louis.-Lafayette -1.9

4.8
6.7

30
0-2
-2.9
71 Cincinnati 0.4

6.0
5.6

80
1-1
-3.0*
72 Virginia -2.4

3.3
5.7

20
1-1
-3.0
73 Connecticut -0.4

5.2
5.6

80
0-1
-3.0
74 Minnesota 2.0

6.6
4.6

170
2-0
-3.1
75 Boston College 1.0

5.6
4.6

140
2-0
-3.2
76 Southern Miss -0.1

4.9
5.0

90
0-2
-3.2
77  Rutgers 1.9

6.4
4.5

165
1-1
-3.3
78 Fresno State -1.0

5.4
6.4

70
1-1
-3.3
79 San Diego St. -2.1

4.3
6.4

40
0-2
-3.3
80 Ohio -1.1

5.5
6.6

70

1-1

-3.4

81 SMU 0.4

5.7
5.3

120
1-1
-3.4
82 Duke 2.4

6.0
3.6

200
2-0
-3.6
83 California -1.7

6.0
7.7

60
1-1
-3.7
84 Louisiana Tech 0.1

5.9
5.7

120
1-1
-3.7
85   Cent. Michigan  -0.8

5.3
6.1

90
1-1
-3.7
86 UNLV -0.6

4.7
5.3

55
0-2
-3.7*
87 East Carolina 0.7

5.7
5.0

150
2-0
-3.8
88 UTSA -0.6

6.0
6.6

100*
1-1
-3.8*
89 Mississippi St.
0.8


5.6
4.8


150

1-1

-3.9

90 Temple -2.5

4.3
6.8

50
0-2
-3.9

91 Iowa State -2.0

5.4
7.4

60
0-1
-4.0
92 Arkansas State 2.2

7.3
5.1

200
1-1
-4.0

93 Nevada -2.0

5.0
7.0

60*
1-1
-4.0
94 South Florida -1.2

4.1
5.3

80
0-2
-4.0
95 Rice -1.6

5.8
7.4

10
0-1
-4.0*
96 Hawaii -2.0

3.6
5.6

55
0-2
-4.1
97 Kent State -1.9

5.0
6.9


70
1-1
-4.2
98 Air Force -0.4

5.3
5.7

120
1-1
-4.2
99 Mid. Tennessee -0.5

5.5
6.0

120
1-1
-4.3
100   West. Michigan -1.2

4.2
5.4

90

0-2
-4.3
101 Colorado State -1.2

4.4
5.6

90
0-2
-4.3
102 Texas State 0.3

4.7
4.4

200
2-0
-4.3
103 New Mexico -0.2

6.2
6.0

130
1-1
-4.3
104 South Alabama -0.8

5.8
5.0

110
1-1
-4.3
105 Purdue -1.2

4.0
5.2

100
1-1
-4.4
106  Buffalo -4.0

4.4
8.4

1
0-2
-4.4
107 Tulane -0.2

5.1
5.3

200
1-1
-4.4
108 UAB
-1.9


5.6
7.5


70

0-2

-4.4

109 North Texas 0.0

6.1
6.1

140
1-1
-4.4
110  Florida Atlantic  -2.5

3.6
6.1

55
0-2
-4.6
111 UTEP  -1.5

6.1
7.6

100
0-1
-4.7
112 Memphis -1.5

4.2
5.7

100
0-1
-4.7
113 Akron  -0.9

5.2
6.1

120
1-1
-4.7
114 Wake Forest -0.1

4.4
4.5

150
1-1
-4.8
115  Kansas 0.9

5.6
4.7

190
1-0
-4.8
116 Troy 1.9

7.1
5.2

230
2-0
-5.0
117 Colorado -1.8

6.1
4.3

115
2-0
-5.2
118 Fl. Int'l FIU  -4.5

2.9
7.4

20
0-2
-5.3
119 Army -0.6

6.2
5.6

150
1-1
-5.3
120 East. Michigan  -2.5

4.3
6.8

100
1-1
-5.7
121 Miami (Ohio) -4.3

3.2
7.5

50
0-2
-5.7
122 Idaho -2.4

5.0
7.4

100
0-2
-5.8
123 New Mexico St. -4.8

4.3
9.1

50

0-2

-6.2
124 Massachusetts -4.3

3.9
8.2

80
0-2
-7.1
125 Georgia State 0.3

6.0
5.7

240*
0-2
-7.2*

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