Thursday, September 05, 2013

Week 2 2013 College Football FBS Game Predictions by SportPundit

Week 2 2013 College Football FBS Game Predictions by SportPundit

Here are our College Football Predictions for Week 2 2013 relying on YPPSYS, our Yards Per Play System.

Skip the indented material if you are already familiar with it.
What makes a good prognosticator? Confidence and/or Accuracy?
And how about keeping all those conference changes straight?

Caveat emptor (Buyer beware): We make this material available in good fun out of interest for the sport of college football. Please do not rely on our material to place bets or wagers of any kind. No one knows the exact outcome of a game or a season before it is played and that is what makes it so interesting. We disclaim any and all liability for the consequences of anyone relying in any way upon our postings, analysis, links or reasoning - for which we make no warranty of accuracy. May the best team win.

Our game predictions for the wnd week of College Football 2012 (Week One) rely in large part on our YPPSYS Preseason College Football Rankings 2013, as based largely on our YPPSYS Final 2012 year-end Rankings and Ratings, but also involving biased and subjective judgment on our part. YPPSYS means "yards per play system", as that is our main ranking component, based primarily on stats at cfbstats.com, but we also use schedule difficulty and conference rankings as based on calculations e.g. at Massey Ratings. At YPPSYS, we regard a difference of one rating point to be worth about 7 points on the scoreboard, a calculation, of course, that is not absolute, given home field advantages, etc. We calculate the home field advantage at an average of about 3 points.

The betting lines ("odds" or "spread") used here are taken from
the College Football Prediction Tracker as of Wednesday, September 4, 2013, 3:21:57 PM or, if CFPT does not have the odds, from Oddsshark as of Wednesday, September 4, 2013. Please be aware that odds often change over time clear up to game time, but we do not change them here, using the Wednesday spreads as our comparison odds!
Thursday, September 5, 2013

Florida Atlantic Owls at East Carolina Pirates
The Pirates are favored over the Owls by 20 points.
Our call: 35-31 for East Carolina.

Sacramento State Hornets at Arizona State Sun Devils
The Sun Devils are favored over the Hornets by 37 points.
Our call:  35-14 for Arizona State.

Friday, September 6, 2013

Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Boston College Eagles
The Eagles are favored over the Demon Deacons by 5 points.
Our call:
31-24 for Boston College

Central Florida (UCF) Knights at Florida International (FIU) Golden Panthers

The Pirates are favored over the Owls by 22 points.Our call: 38-7 for UCF.

Saturday, September 7, 2013

Bowling Green Falcons at Kent State Golden Flashes
The Falcons are favored by 7.5 points.
Our call: 35-21 for Bowling Green.

Eastern Kentucky Colonels at Louisville Cardinals 
The Cardinals are favored by 41 points.
Our call: 52-7 for Louisville.

Cincinnati Bearcats at Illinois Fighting Illini
The Bearcats are favored over the Fighting Illini by 8 points.
Our call: 41-27 for Cincinnati.

Missouri State Bears at Iowa Hawkeyes
The Hawkeyes are favored over the Bears by 24.5 points. 
Our call:  34-13 for Iowa.

Miami (OH) RedHawks at Kentucky Wildcats
The Wildcats are favored by 17 points over the RedHawks.
Our call: 38-20 for Kentucky.

Florida Gators at Miami (FL) Hurricanes
The Gators are favored by 3 points.
Our call: 24-23 for Miami of Florida.

South Florida Bulls at Michigan State Spartans
Michigan State is favored by 23.5 points.
Our call: 30-13 for Michigan State.

Eastern Michigan Eagles at Penn State Nittany Lions
Penn State is favored by 24 points.
Our call: 41-16 for Penn State. 

Indiana State Sycamores at Purdue Boilermakers
The Boilermakers are favored by 17 points.
Our call: 49-28 for Purdue.

Southeastern Louisiana Lions at TCU Horned Frogs
The Horned Frogs are favored by 43 points.
Our call: 49-7 for TCU.

Oklahoma State Cowboys at UTSA (Texas-San Antonio) Roadrunners
The Cowboys are favored by 26.5 points.
Our call: 41-24 for Oklahoma State.

Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles at Wisconsin Badgers
The Badgers are favored by 45 points.
Our call: 49-0 for Wisconsin.

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Tennessee Volunteers
The Vols are favored by 13.5 points.
Our call: 31-24 for Tennessee.

South Carolina State Bulldogs at Clemson Tigers
The Tigers are favored by 52.5 points.
Our call: 63-7 for Clemson.

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at North Carolina Tar Heels
North Carolina is favored by 18 points.
Our call:  37-27 for the Tar Heels.

Army Black Knights at Ball State Cardinals
Ball State is favored by 7.5 points.
Our call: 41-27 for Ball State.

Western Carolina Catamounts at Virginia Tech Hokies
The Hokies are favored by 42 points.
Our call: 41-7 for Virginia Tech.

Chattanooga Mocs at Georgia State Panthers
The Mocs are favored by 11 points.
Our call: 38-21 for Chattanooga.

Maine Black Bears at Massachusetts Minutemen
The Black Bears are favored by 3 points.
Our call: 28-27 for Massachusetts.

Weber State Wildcats at Utah Utes
The Utes are favored by 23 points.
Our call: 49-7 for Utah.

Tennessee-Martin (UTM) Skyhawks at Boise State Broncos
The Broncos are favored by 35.5 points.
Our call: 48-14 for Boise State.

New Hampshire Wildcats at Central Michigan Chippewas
The Chippewas are favored by 3.5 points.
Our call: 34-7 for Central Michigan.

Utah State Aggies at Air Force Falcons
The Aggies are favored by 9.5 points.
Our call: 36-23 for Utah State.

Buffalo Bulls at Baylor Bears
The Bears are favored by 27.5 points.
Our call: 41-14 for Baylor.

Toledo Rockets at Missouri Tigers
The Tigers are favored by 17 points.
Our call: 35-21 for Missouri.

San Diego State Aztecs at Ohio State Buckeyes
The Buckeyes are favored by 27.5 points.
Our call: 51-7 for the Buckeyes.

South Alabama Jaguars at Tulane Green Wave
The Green Wave are favored by 6.5 points.
Our call: 27-24 for Tulane.

Oregon Ducks at Virginia Cavaliers
The Ducks are favored by 22 points.
Our call: 42-21 for Oregon.

Old Dominion Monarchs at Maryland Terrapins
The Terps are favored by 19 points. 
Our call: 39-17 for Maryland.

Idaho Vandals at Wyoming Cowboys
Wyoming is favored by 28 points.
Our call: 49-14 for Wyoming.

South Carolina Gamecocks at Georgia Bulldogs
Georgia is favored by 3 points.
Our call: 27-26 for South Carolina.

Duke Blue Devils at Memphis Tigers
Duke is favored by 6 points.
Our call: 34-27 for Duke.

Alcorn State Braves at Mississippi State Bulldogs
The Bulldogs are favored by 42.5 points.
Our call: 51-7 for Mississippi State.

Portland State Vikings at California Golden Bears
The Golden Bears are favored by 27.5 points.
Our call: 52-14 for the Golden Bears.

James Madison Dukes at Akron Zips
The Zips are favored by 3 points.
Our call: 31-30 for James Madison.

Navy Midshipmen at Indiana Hoosiers
The Hoosiers are favored by 13 points.
Our call: 44-34 for Indiana.

Southern Miss Golden Eagles at Nebraska Cornhuskers
The Huskers are favored by 28 points.
Our call: 49-10 for Nebraska.

Richmond Spiders at North Carolina State Wolfpack
The Wolfpack are favored by 23 points.
Our call: 45-14 for NC State.

Syracuse Orange at Northwestern Wildcats
Northwestern is favored by 12 points.
Our call: 31-27 for Northwestern.

Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns at Kansas State Wildcats
K-State is favored by 10.5 points.
Our call: 42-23 for K-State.


Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs at Marshall Thundering Herd
Marshall is favored by 42 points.
Our call: 61-7 for Marshall.

Samford Bulldogs at Arkansas Razorbacks
The Razorbacks are favored by 32.5 points.
Our call: 45-14 for Arkansas.

Texas Longhorns at BYU Cougars
The Longhorns are favored by 7 points.
Our call: 31-21 for Texas.

South Dakota Coyotes at Kansas Jayhawks
The Jayhawks are favored by 23.5 points.
Our call: 31-24 for Kansas.

UAB Blazers at LSU Tigers
LSU is favored by 34.5 points.
Our call: 42-7 for LSU.

Lamar Cardinals at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
The Bulldogs are favored by 28 points.
Our call: 44-14 for Louisiana Tech.

Grambling State Tigers at Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks
The WarHawks are favored by 39.5 points.
Our call: 52-7 for the Warhawks.

North Texas Mean Green at Ohio Bobcats
Ohio is favored by 4.5 points.
Our call: 34-24 for Ohio.

West Virginia Mountaineers at Oklahoma Sooners
Oklahoma is favored by 21 points.
Our call: 35-7 for Oklahoma.

Southeast Missouri State Redhawks at Ole Miss Rebels
Mississippi is favored by 50 points.
Our call: 44-14 for Ole Miss.

Sam Houston State Bearkats at Texas A&M Aggies
The Aggies are favored by 39.5 points.
Our call: 41-24 for Texas A&M. 

Prairie View A&M Panthers at Texas State Bobcats
The Broncos are favored by 31 points.
Our call: 51-27 for Texas State.

Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks at Texas Tech Red Raiders
The Red Raiders are favored by 38 points.
Our call: 49-7 for Texas Tech.

Savannah State Tigers at Troy Trojans
Troy is favored by 48.5 points.
Our call: 45-7 for Troy.

Colorado State Rams at Tulsa Golden Hurricane
Tulsa is favored by 10 points.
Our call: 31-21 for Tulsa. 

Nicholls State Colonels at Western Michigan Broncos
The Broncos are favored by 26 points.
Our call: 49-17 for the Broncos.

Arkansas State Red Wolves at Auburn Tigers
Auburn is favored by 13.5 points.
Our call: 38-35 for Auburn.

Austin Peay Governors at Vanderbilt Commodores
Vandy is favored by 47.5 points.
Our call: 48-7 for Vanderbilt.

Central Arkansas Bears at Colorado Buffaloes
Colorado is favored by 13 points.
Our call: 31-17 for Colorado.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Michigan Wolverines
Michigan is favored by 3.5 points.
Our call: 31-27 for Michigan.

Minnesota Golden Gophers at New Mexico State Aggies
The Golden Gophers are favored by 15.5 points.
Our call: 38-17 for Minnesota.

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors at Oregon State Beavers
The Beavers are favored by 27 points.
Our call: 41-21 for the Beavers.

New Mexico Lobos at UTEP Miners
The Miners are favored by 6.5 points.
Our call: 38-28 for UTEP.

UC Davis Aggies at Nevada Wolf Pack
The Wolf Pack is favored by 18 points.
Our call: 38-14 for Nevada.

Cal Poly Mustangs at Fresno State Bulldogs
The Bulldogs are favored by 27 points.
Our call: 48-27 for Fresno State.

Arizona Wildcats at UNLV Rebels
The Wildcats are favored by 10.5 points.
Our call: 34-14 for Arizona.

Washington State Cougars at USC Trojans
USC is favored by 15.5 points.
Our call: 38-21 for USC.

San Jose State Spartans at Stanford Cardinal
Stanford is favored by 26.5 points.
Our call: 41-21 for Stanford.

3D Printing, Scanning, Manufacturing and Intellectual Property: The Battle Begins

ReadWrite has a posting about disappearing designs in Copy Protection For 3D Printing May Have Arrived.
This is an entire new field of law that is opening out there:

Intellectual Property and 3D printing.

Controlling what people are printing out there is the next great adventure in applying the outdated legal concepts of copyrights, patents and trademarks to 3D scanning, 3D printing and 3D manufacturing, whether privately or commercially.

Knoxville Tennessee and the American Civil War

Knoxville, Tennessee has always seemed to be a city of the South that is somehow different. Aaron Astor at the New York Times gives us some clues as to the "why" in his article on Knoxville during the Civil War in The Liberation of Knoxville.

Week 1 2013 College Football FBS Game Prediction Results

These are the game results for the Week 1 2013 College Football FBS Game Predictions by SportPundit -- updated as results come in -- and, by the way, don't miss the College Football Countdown at USAToday, wow, what a tremendous review by Paul Myerberg of the FBS college football teams! Absolutely splendid! UPDATE: Game Results shown only through Friday due to computer glitch.We had analyzed all the games and then lost the text. I simply do not have time to redo it.

Skip the introductory material if you are already familiar with it and go to the game result analysis further below.
Last season we were 628-183 in calling the winner, 365-354-13 against the line and 278-269-1 against the CFPT average computer spread for the ten weeks that we kept track + bowl games.

What makes a good prognosticator? Confidence and/or Accuracy?
And how about keeping all those conference changes straight?

Caveat emptor (Buyer beware): We make this material available in good fun out of interest for the sport of college football. Please do not rely on our material to place bets or wagers of any kind. No one knows the exact outcome of a game or a season before it is played and that is what makes it so interesting. We disclaim any and all liability for the consequences of anyone relying in any way upon our postings, analysis, links or reasoning - for which we make no warranty of accuracy. May the best team win.

Our game predictions for the 1st week of College Football 2012 (Week One) relied in large part on our YPPSYS Preseason College Football Rankings 2013, as based largely on our YPPSYS Final 2012 Rankings, but also involved biased and subjective judgment on our part. YPPSYS means "yards per play system", as that is our main ranking component, based primarily on stats at cfbstats.com, but we also use schedule difficulty and conference rankings as based on calculations e.g. at Massey Ratings. At YPPSYS, we regard a difference of one rating point to be worth about 7 points on the scoreboard, a calculation, of course, that is not absolute, given home field advantages, etc. We calculate the home field advantage at an average of about 3 points.

The betting lines ("odds" or "spread") used here were taken from the College Football Prediction Tracker as of Friday, August 16, 2013, 2:42:02 PM. Please be aware that odds change over time, but we do not change them here, using the above time and date as our comparison odds!  There have usually been few or no odds for matchups between FBS and FCS teams, though we see OddsShark has some odds posted. We were not aware of those odds prior to making our predictions and do not include those games in our "spread" stats since CFPT does not include those games in its list of spreads.

GAME RESULTS (updated regularly)
Thursday, August 29, 2013

Liberty at Kent State
Our call was: 38-14 for Kent State
Result: 17-10 for the Golden Flashes
We are 1-0 in calling the game winner and 0-0 against the spread. The game odds are called the "spread".
Paul Haynes, replacing Darrell Hazell, started the season out right with an unexpectedly difficult 17-10 win over the Flames of Turner Gill, who led 10-7 after three quarters and were beaten on a late Colin Reardon to Chris Humphrey 42-yard touchdown pass. We have decided to ALSO use the Yahoo! Sports in spite of their recent and disastrous graphic user interface redesign, which on a scale of 1 to 10 -- with 10 the best -- we rate at near 0. However, the game statistics remain top among all the sports portals, so we will use those Yahoo! Sports game stat pages.
 
North Carolina at South Carolina
The Gamecocks were favored by 11 points.
Our call: 37-21 for South Carolina
Result: 27-10 for the Gamecocks.
We are 2-0 in calling the game winner and 1-0 against the spread.
The preseason hype had over-exaggerated expectations about the play of Jadeveon Clowney, so it is is probably a good thing that he had a so-so game in South Carolina's 27-10 win over the Tar Heels, coming off a stomach virus and thus being tired by the fast-paced North Carolina offense, whose Bryn Renner completed 26 of 43 passes for 293 yards, 1 TD and no interceptions, but were unable to counter the Gamecocks 6.9 to 3.7 yards-per-play advantage, a stat which shows the clear South Carolina dominance, both offensively and defensively.

Presbyterian at Wake Forest
Our call: 49-7 for the Demon Deacons
Result: 31-7 for Wake Forest.
We are 3-0 in calling the game winner and 1-0 against the spread. 
The Blue Hose, 2-9 last season, threw fear into the Demon Deacons by racing off to a quick 7-0 lead, but were held to 2 first downs and committed 6 turnovers in losing 31-7 in their best ever performance against an FBS team.

Indiana State at Indiana
Our call: 31-13 for the Hoosiers
Result: 73-35 for the Hoosiers.
We are 4-0 in calling the game winner and 1-0 against the spread.  
After last season's struggling 24-17 win, the Hoosiers rolled over the Sycamores 73-35 and could have scored more, but took a knee late in the game to keep the score down.

UNLV at Minnesota
The Golden Gophers were favored by 14 points.
Our call: 37-17 for Minnesota. 
Result: 51-23 for the Golden Gophers.
We are 5-0 in calling the game winner and 2-0 against the spread.
Marcus Jones had a 99-yard kickoff return for Minnesota, who should be stronger this year than last.

Tulsa at Bowling Green
The Falcons were favored by 4 points.
Our call: 24-21 for the Golden Hurricane. 
Result: 34-7 for Bowling Green.
We are 5-1 in calling the game winner and 2-1 against the spread. 
When we're wrong, sometimes we're really wrong, as this game shows. The Dave Clawson era at Bowling Green may have begun. The stellar defense of the Falcons shut out the Golden Hurricane for three quarters, as Bowling Green led 6-0 at the half and 13-0 after three quarters, and then 4th-quarter Tulsa miscues led to a surprisingly lop-sided 34-7 win. Some preseason commentators saw Bowling Green as a team with the potential to become very strong and they appear to be right. See e.g. Paul Myerberg's analysis at the College Football Countdown at USA Today. This win over a good Tulsa team makes Bowling Green a Top-25 candidate, no question. The Falcons averaged 4.9 yards per play and Tulsa 4.2 yards per play, indicating that the difference between these two teams is not as large as the final score might suggest.

Illinois State at Ball State
Our call: 38-17 for the Cardinals. 
Result: 51-28 for Ball State.
We are 6-1 in calling the game winner and 2-1 against the spread.  
The final score may have been a 51-28 win for the Cardinals, but not before they survived a massive scare in trailing the Redbirds, ranked 10th in the FCS, at halftime 21-16.

Akron at Central Florida (UCF)
The Knights were favored by 21.5 points.
Our call: 38-14 for the Knights. 
Result: 38-7 for UCF.
We are 7-1 in calling the game winner and 3-1 against the spread.   
Blake Bortels had his first 300-yard passing game for the Knights in a 38-7 win that handed the Zips their 10th straight loss.

Southern Utah at South Alabama
Our call: 31-14 for the Jaguars  
Result: 22-21 for the Thunderbirds.
We are 7-2 in calling the game winner and 3-1 against the spread.    
Southern Utah is in the upper tier of FCS and apparently as strong as the lower tier of FBS as the Thunderbirds pulled off a 22-21 upset on a 28-yard field goal by Colton Cook with no time left on the clock to give a surprising 22-21 victory over the Jaguars of South Alabama.

Towson at Connecticut
Our call: 28-7 for the Huskies
Result: 33-18 for Towson.
We are 7-3 in calling the game winner and 3-1 against the spread.     
Towson, ranked 12th in FCS preseason, upset UConn 33-18, as the Tigers outgained the Huskies 393 to 287 yards, so that their first ever win over an FBS team was no fluke. Towson was left out of the FCS playoffs last year in spite of winning their last four games and sharing the CAA title, so they must be out to show the world how wrong that was. Tiger coach Rob Ambrose is a previous UConn assistant coach. Now, THAT must be a sweet win.

Western Carolina at Middle Tennessee
Our call: 42-14 for the Blue Raiders
Result: 45-24 for Middle Tennessee
We are 8-3 in calling the game winner and 3-1 against the spread.  
The Blue Raiders mastered the Catamounts 45-24.

Utah State at Utah
The Utes were favored by 2.5 points.
Our call: 31-28 for Utah.
Result: 30-26 for the Utes.
We are 9-3 in calling the game winner and 4-1 against the spread.   
Matt Wells, who replaced Gary Andersen as head coach, had a rough opener, losing a tight game 30-26 to the Utes, whose offense showed new spark under Utah's new co-offensive coordinator, Dennis Erickson. Utah's Travis Wilson threw for 302 yards in a game fairly even on the stats, and the Aggies Chuckie Keeton threw for 314 yards.

Jackson State at Tulane
Our call: 35-17 for the Green Wave   
Result: 34-7 for Tulane.
We are 10-3 in calling the game winner and 4-1 against the spread.   
Behind QB Nick Montana, the son of former NFL quarterback great Joe Montana, the Green Wave opened their season with a 34-7 victory over the Tigers, in spite of being outgained 356 to 308 yards by Jackson Sate, but forcing six turnovers.

Ole Miss at Vanderbilt
The Rebels were favored by 3 points over the Commodores.
Our call: 31-27 for Ole Miss.
Result: 39-35 for Mississippi.
We are 11-3 in calling the game winner and 5-1 against the spread.  
The Rebels under Hugh Freeze continued to show improvement in beating a surely also improving Vanderbilt 39-35 on a late 4th quarter 75-yard run by Jeff Scott. Ole Miss outgained Vandy 489 to 426 yards but the Commodores had the better yards-per-play stat with a 6.2 to 5.8 yards-per-play advantage.
 
Sacramento State at San Jose State
Our call: 38-7 for the Spartans.
Result: 24-0 for San Jose State.
We are 12-3 in calling the game winner and 5-1 against the spread.
Ron Caregher's debut in the shoes of a very successful Mike MacIntyre was a successful 24-0 win against the Hornets, with an average gain per play advantage of 6.0 yards to 3.5 yards.

Rutgers at Fresno State
The Bulldogs were favored by 10 points.
Our call: 27-26 for Rutgers.  
Result: 52-51 for Fresno State.
We are 12-4 in calling the game winner and 6-1 against the spread. 
Probably the best game of the day! Both quarterbacks, Gary Nova and Derek Carr, threw for 5 TDs. The Fresno State Bulldogs emerged a 52-51 overtime winner over the visiting Rutgers Scarlet Knights after a missed 43-yard field goal by Rutgers with time running out in regulation and a failed pass on a 2-point attempt for the win in overtime. The Bulldogs slightly outgained Rutgers 551 to 543 yards, but the Scarlet Knights had the clear yards-per-play advantage 7.4 to 5.7, indicating that Rutgers may prove to be the better team in the course of the season if they can get their pass defense to improve.

USC at Hawaii
The Trojans were favored by 22.5 points.
Our call: 41-17 for USC.
Result: 30-13 for the Trojans.
We are 13-4 in calling the game winner and 6-2 against the spread.  
The Trojans were less than impressive in winning 30-13 against the Warriors from Hawaii. USC led 30-5 with 42 seconds to play and then permitted a 60-yard TD pass from Taylor Graham to Keith Kirkwood. Long passes for TDs in the last minute are always signs of poor coaching by those who allow them, and that seems to be the Trojans main problem, meek coaching. Kiffin's indecision on quarterbacks is just typical of his inability to make the right decisions, hoping that circumstances will show the way. The head coach is paid to make the right decisions, not to wait for serendipity to lend a hand.

Friday, August 30, 2013

Morgan State at Army
Our call: 56-7 for the Black Knights.  
Result:  28-12 for Army.
We are 14-4 in calling the game winner and 6-2 against the spread.  
The Black Knights had much more trouble with the Bears than anticipated in winning 28-12 in the first match between Army and one of the nation's historically black colleges (see NYTimes).

Samford at Georgia State
Our call: 31-24 for Samford.
Result: 31-21 for Samford.
We are 15-4 in calling the game winner and 6-2 against the spread.  
Fabian Truss returned the opening kickoff 100 yards for Samford in a 31-21 win over the Panthers of Georgia State.

Western Michigan at Michigan State
The Spartans are favored by 27.5 points.
Our call: 34-14 for Michigan State.
Result:  26-13 for the Spartans.
We are 16-4 in calling the game winner and 7-2 against the spread.  
The Michigan State offense struggled in a 26-13 win over the Broncos dominated by defenses, as the Spartans averaged 3.8 yards per play and Western Michigan 2.7 yards per play. Average for FBS is about 5.4 ypp.  
P.J. Fleck, the youngest head coach in FBS and first ever head coach in FBS born in the 1980s, had to settle for a loss in his first game.

Florida Atlantic at Miami (FL)
The Hurricanes are favored by 32.5 points.
Our call: 41-24 for the Hurricanes
Result: 34-6 for Miami of Florida.
We are 17-4 in calling the game winner and 8-2 against the spread. The Hurricanes dominated the Owls 34-6, averaging 7.3 yards per play to 3.3 yards per play for Florida Atlantic and outgaining them 503 to 250 yards.

Texas Tech at Southern Methodist (SMU)
The Red Raiders are favored by 5.5 points.
Our call: 51-44 for Texas Tech.
Result:  41-23 for the Red Raiders.
We are 18-4 in calling the game winner and 9-2 against the spread.  
New Red Raider head coach Kliff Kingsbury, offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach for Heisman Trophy winning Johnny Manziel at Texas A&M last season, has a new protege under his wing in the person of freshman walk-on Baker Mayfield, who got the starting call and responded with 4 TD passes and 1 TD running in a 41-23 Texas Tech win over the Mustangs, who actually outgained the Red Raiders 490 to 461 yards as both teams averaged 5.3 yards per play, but Mayfield got into the groove in the 4th quarter for the game difference, becoming a quarterback to watch this season, as he completed 43 of 60 passes for 413 yards, 13 of those to Eric Ward for 150 yards. SMU quarterback Garrett Gilbert also put up impressive numbers and accounted for 441 yards total offense. Mayfield might be the first walk-on true freshman ever to start a season opener for a BCS school.

Southern University at Houston
Our call: 61-7 for the Cougars.
Result:  62-13 for the Cougars.
We are 19-4 in calling the game winner and 9-2 against the spread.  
The Cougars pounced on the Jaguars 62-13 to open their season, gaining 627 yards and taking advantage of four turnovers and failed punt to add to the final score.   

North Dakota State at Kansas State
Our call: 24-14 for the Wildcats
Result:  24-21 for the Bison.
We are 19-5 in calling the game winner and 9-2 against the spread.  
 You win some and you lose some. No one denies that Bill Snyder is a great football coach, but he was bettered on this day. It is still early in the season, but the impressive Bison 24-21 win over the defending Big 12 champion Wildcats suggests they may go undefeated this year and "threepeat" as FCS champions. It appears to be "in the cards".

There is a magic in the Devaney-Osborne Nebraska Cornhusker football program era that seems to breed such successful "threepeat" national championship head coaches in the Husker assistant ranks, as former Husker football assistant Craig Bohl, head coach at North Dakota State, has led the Bison to the last two FCS national championships and is odds on after this game to join former Husker assistants Jerry Moore, who threepeated as Division I-AA national champions at Appalachian State, and Lance Leipold who threepeated with Wisconsin-Whitewater as national champions in Division III, and who has close ties to Nebraska athletic director Shawn Eichorst. For his part, Moore sent an encouraging note to Bohl prior to the Kansas State game saying: "You have one shot at Kansas State. Make the most of it". And he did.
 
We might note that Alabama's chances to threepeat this year in FBS are thus unclear. You see, Nick Saban has no direct Nebraska coaching experience, but a Tom Osborne pat on the back after a Michigan State Saban-coached 50-10 loss to the Huskers in 1995 may have helped to pave Saban's way to the top, and a friendship developed between Osborne and Saban. Given that strong "Nebraska" influence, we might gauge that Alabama's chances of threepeating this year are thus perhaps better than otherwise anticipated.

Northern Arizona at Arizona
Our call: 48-14 for the Wildcats 
Result: 35-0 for Arizona.
We are 20-5 in calling the game winner and 9-2 against the spread.  
The Wildcats shut out the Lumberjacks 35-0 in spite of benching Ka'Deem Carey, the nation's leading rusher last year, for disciplinary reasons. Daniel Jenkins picked up some of the slack with a 91-yard run for a TD, as the Wildcats rushed for 306 yards, showing strength in the offensive line.


Saturday, August 31, 2013

Elon at Georgia Tech
Our call: 49-7 for the Yellow Jackets  
The Phoenix opened last season with a 62-0 blowout loss to North Carolina and finished the season 3-8, while the Yellow Jackets finished 7-7 after surprisingly beating USC 21-7 in the Hyundai Sun Bowl.

Villanova at Boston College
Our call: 38-7 for the Eagles  
Villanova finished last season 8-4 while the Eagles were 2-10 and hired Steve Addazio, formerly of the Florida 2006 and 2008 national championship coaching staffs, head coaching the last two years at Temple, to take over for Frank Spaziani.

Buffalo at Ohio State
The Buckeyes are favored by 36.5 points.
Our call: 49-7 for the Buckeyes.  
The Bulls were 4-8 in 2012 while the Buckeyes went undefeated 12-0 (with numerous close wins) but were not eligible for a bowl game or for the national championship in Urban Meyer's first season as Ohio State head coach. Arguably, Ohio State should be stronger as a team this year. Buffalo opened last season with a 45-23 loss to Georgia.

Massachusetts at Wisconsin
The Badgers are favored by 54 points on the updated line. The opening line was 45 points.
Our call: 70-7 for Wisconsin.
A very successful Bret Bielema left the Badgers to become head coach at Arkansas, and is replaced by Gary Andersen, whose success at Utah State was remarkable. A betting line this high could be problematical because a coach could choose to play reserves early and not run up the score against a Minuteman team that ranked last of 124 teams in our FBS rankings last year.

William & Mary at West Virginia
Our call: 51-7 for the Mountaineers  
The Tribe was 2-9 last season, while the Mountaineers posted a 7-6 record, losing in the snow 38-14 to Syracuse in the postseason.

Southern Illinois at Illinois
Our call: 41-14 for the Illini
Bill Cubit
, who was 51-47 for the Western Michigan Broncos over eight seasons, with 3 bowl games and a powerful offense, has taken over as the offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach at the University of Illinois, and it shows, as Illinois produced 757 total yards in the spring game. The Salukis of Southern Illinois were 6-5 last season, losing 30-14 to Miami of Ohio.

Purdue at Cincinnati
The Bearcats are favored by 10.5 points.
Our call: 31-28 for Cincinnati
A tough opener in which one new head coach will have to lose. The Boilermakers, 6-7 last year with a 58-14 thumping at the hands of Oklahoma State post-season, have Darrell Hazell taking over the reigns at "the Cradle of Quarterbacks". Maybe not as much yet this year, but surely next year, based on Hazell's track record at Kent State, Purdue will surely be a much improved team. Cincinnati, 10-3 last year with a 48-34 win over Duke in the postseason, this year will be led by Tommy Tuberville, who left Texas Tech to replace Butch Jones and interim bowl coach Steve Stripling.

Toledo at Florida
The Gators are favored by 24 points.
Our call: 34-14 for the Gators 
The Rockets closed out 9-4 last year with a 41-15 loss to Utah State postseason. Florida finished the season with only one loss, 17-9 to Georgia, and then was upset 33-23 by Louisville in the postseason bowl. The Gators under defensive guru Muschamp excel at defense but have a weak offense.

Florida International (FIU) at Maryland
The Terrapins are favored by 20 points.
Our call: 24-17 for the Terps 
Ron Turner has replaced Mario Cristobal as the head coach of the Panthers, who enter Conference USA in 2013.

Louisiana Tech at North Carolina State (NC State)
The Wolfpack are favored by 14 points.
Our call: 31-24 for NC State. 
Another tough matchup in which one new head coach will have to lose.
Skip Holtz, who was 16-21 at South Florida the last three years, takes over for Sonny Dykes, who moved to the Cal Bears for the 2013 season, while Dave Doeren of Northern Illinois, 12-2 last year and 12-1 under Doeren, formerly on the coaching staff of Wisconsin, takes over for Tom O'Brien at NC State. 

Rice at Texas A&M
The Aggies are favored by 27.5 points.
Our call: 46-7 for Texas A&M  
The Heisman did "Johnny Football" no favor by awarding him the Trophy last year as a freshman. Texas A&M will perhaps find it difficult to duplicate last year's superior season.  

Colgate at Air Force
Our call: 38-14 for the Falcons. 

Temple at Notre Dame
The Fighting Irish are favored by 30 points.
Our call: 42-10 for Notre Dame  
The Owls will be led by Matt Ruhle, replacing Steve Addazio, who took over the reigns at Boston College.

Central Michigan at Michigan
The Wolverines are favored by 31.5 points.
Our call: 42-17 for the Wolverines.   

Penn State vs. Syracuse at MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ.
The Nittany Lions are favored by 7.5 points.
Our call: 24-23 for the Orange
Doug Marrone, hired away from Syracuse by the NFL Buffalo Bills as head coach, is replaced as head coach this year by Scott Shafer for the Orange, who joined the ACC this year. Shafer has a great defensive mind, so it will be interesting to see the head coaching style.

Mississippi State vs. Oklahoma State
The Cowboys are favored by 12.5 points.
Our call: 38-31 for Oklahoma State

BYU (Brigham Young University) at Virginia
The Cougars are favored by 8 points.
Our call: 28-24 for BYU
Both teams are hard to gauge because of inconsistent play game to game.

Northern Illinois at Iowa
The Hawkeyes are favored by 3 points.
Our call: 31-27 for Iowa  
With Dave Doeren departed to NC State, Rod Carey, offensive coordinator for Northern Illinois last year, takes over the helm for the Huskies. The likelihood that they will be as strong this year as last, even with many returning starters, is small. Iowa is almost always an overachiever, given their material.

Louisiana-Lafayette at Arkansas
The Razorbacks are favored by 10.5 points.
Our call: 41-14 for Arkansas  
Last year's head coach at Wisconsin, Brett Bielema, replaces John L. Smith as head coach. There is no question that the Razorbacks will be vastly improved this year, but no one knows yet whether they can become competitive in the SEC again in such a short span of time.
   
NC Central at Duke
Our call: 49-14 for Duke   
The Eagles lost to the Blue Devils 54-17 last year.

Nicholls State at Oregon
Our call: 70-0 for the Ducks.  
Mark Helfrich, the previous offensive coordinator, replaces head coach Chip Kelly, who took a job in the NFL as head coach of the Philadelphia Eagles. Oregon State beat the Nicholls State Eagles 77-3 in the closing season game last year and we rate the Oregon Ducks ca. 10 points better than the Beavers.

Alabama vs. Virginia Tech
The Crimson Tide are favored by 21 points.
Our call: 38-14 for the Crimson Tide  
It has been four years since the Crimson Tide beat the Hokies 34-24 in the season opener in 2009 in the days when Virginia Tech still produced top football teams and finished the year 10-3. Last year Virginia Tech was 7-6, and three of those wins were in overtime. If a BMW is a "beamer" then head Hokie coach's "Beamer Ball" has become an underpowered VW.

Eastern Washington at Oregon State
Our call: 35-28 for the Beavers   
The Eagles are one of the top teams in the FCS. They lost 24-20 to Washington State last season, so Oregon State should win but encounter some stiff opposition here and there under way.

Howard at Eastern Michigan
Our call: 33-24 for the Eagles.
You all know where Howard University is located, right?
How about 2400 6th St NW, Washington D.C., right in the nation's capital.
The Bison of the MEAC were 7-4 last season with a respectable 26-0 loss to 9-4 bowl-bound Rutgers, who we rank 20 points better than the MAC Eagles.

Austin Peay at Tennessee
Our call: 39-7 for the Volunteers
Butch Jones arrives from Cincinnati as the new Vol head coach to try to resurrect a once proud football program that has fallen on hard times. Jones will surely start with a convincing win over the Governors, 2-9 last season, who lost e.g. 42-7 to Virginia Tech.   

Washington State at Auburn
The Tigers are favored by 15.5 points.
Our call: 42-24 for Auburn  
Gus Malzahn replaces Gene Chizik as head coach at Auburn. Malzahn as offensive coordinator led the Tigers and Cam Newton to a 14-0 record and a national championship in 2010 and Malzahn's reinstatement of the "go-go" style of play will produce a team that will have no resemblance to the subsequent struggling, stuttering Chizik-led Tiger teams. How quickly Auburn can rebound under Malzahn is not clear, but rebound Auburn it will a lot by the end of the season, when the Tigers play Alabama on November 30. Saban does not like fast-paced play. Malzahn will surely give him a double dose of it.

At Washington State, Mike Leach is in his second year and the 3-9 team of his initial year improved visibly given the 31-28 upset win over Washington to close out last season. The defense is surely better this year through Mike Breske, formerly of Montana, and Leach is known for installing a dangerous passing offense, so we expect some scoring against Auburn, whose defense will have to develop during the season to keep pace with the progress of the new speed offense.

Based on last year's stats, the two teams would be regarded as virtually even, but under Malzahn last year does not really count.

McNeese State at South Florida
Our call:  31-17 for the Bulls
Willie Taggart comes to USF as the new head coach, formerly head coach at Western Kentucky, and before that assistant to Jim Harbaugh at Stanford.

Kentucky vs. Western Kentucky (in Nashville)
The Hilltoppers are favored by 1 point in the updated line.
Our call: 27-24 for the Hilltoppers   
The Wildcats were favored by 5 in the opening line. The Hilltoppers are coached this year by former Arkansas head coach Bobby Petrino, and he has a good base to work on, provided by former head coach Willy Taggart, hired away by South Florida. Taggart moved Western Kentucky from an 0-12 record to two 7-5 winning seasons, including a 32-31 win over the Wildcats last year. Mark Stoops is the new coach at Kentucky, replacing Joker Phillips, whose squad went 2-10 last year. One should not attach too much importance to the winner of this game, unless the score is lopsided. Both teams still have a long way to go in the season and both teams should be improved as they go along.

Murray State at Missouri
Our call:  41-7 for the Tigers
The Racers were 5-6 last season, losing 69-3 to Florida State, while Missouri was 5-7 with a 2-4 record in the SEC East, closing out their season with a 59-29 drubbing at the hands of Texas A&M.  

Old Dominion at East Carolina
Our call:  52-38 for the Pirates
The Monarchs are in FBS transition and this season play as an independent FCS team ineligible for the FCS playoffs. In 2014 Old Dominion joins the FBS in the C-USA. Last year the Monarchs were 11-2, scoring more than 60 points in 3 games, while the Pirates finished 8-5.

Louisiana-Monroe at Oklahoma
The Sooners are favored by 23.5 points.
Our call:  49-24 for Oklahoma.
Oklahoma was 29th nationally in pass defense last year while the Warhawks were 27th in the nation in passing yardage, finishing 8-5 with an overtime win over Arkansas and an overtime loss to Auburn. The Sooners finished 10-3 in a disappointing season, given the expectations, and were blown out by Texas A&M 41-13 in the AT&T Cotton Bowl, in spite of holding possession for nearly 37 minutes, as opposed to 23 minutes for Texas A&M. Not being able to turn that advantage into points might be a problem of timid coaching. The Sooners also lost in the regular season to Kansas State and Notre Dame.

Idaho at North Texas
The Mean Green are favored by 15 points.
Our call:  35-24 for North Texas
Paul Petrino, brother of former Arkansas coach Bobby Petrino, who takes over at Western Kentucky this year, takes over as head coach for the Vandals to replace Robb Akey and interim head coach Jason Gesser.

Miami (OH) at Marshall
The Thundering Herd are favored by 18 points.
Our call: 66-21 for the Thundering Herd
The Thundering Herd were first in the nation in passing yardage per game last year behind the arm of Rakeem Cato and placed in the top 10 nationally in scoring and total offense, but they were ALSO next to last in the number of points given up by the defense in stumbling to a 5-7 year. Nearly the entire defensive staff has been replaced under new defensive coordinator Chuck Heater, whose record includes a stint at Florida under Urban Meyer. When that defense is improved, as it surely will be this year, Marshall will be formidable.

Arkansas-Pine Bluff at Arkansas State
Our call:  48-14 for the Red Wolves
Bryan Harsin replaces Gus Malzahn and interim John Thompson as head coach.
You have to hand it to the Red Wolves players, who continue producing top seasons under different coaches who have been hired away by more prestigious institutions. 10-3 last year, with a bowl win over a strong Kent State team, two of those losses were to Oregon and Nebraska and a third to vastly improved Western Kentucky. The Golden Lions of Arkansas-Pine Bluff also had a banner season in 2012, going 10-2.

Texas State at Southern Miss
The Golden Eagles are favored by 7.5 points.
Our call: 41-14 for the Golden Eagles
Todd Monken, formerly offensive coordinator, is the new coach of the Golden Eagles, who in one season, incredibly went from 12 wins to a 0-12 record, guided by a one-year massively misplaced defensively minded head coach, so there is nowhere to go but up. The Bobcats were 4-8 under Dennis Franchione. This is a game almost impossible to call because of the many unknowns but Monken thinks Southern Miss can recover quickly from last year, even though three losses are all but assured (in early season road games at Nebraska, Arkansas and Boise State).

UAB at Troy State
The Trojans are favored by 5 points.
Our call:  38-28 for Troy
  
Wofford at Baylor
Our call:  38-24 for Baylor
The Bears were 8-5 last year, beating UCLA 49-26 in the Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl and during the season knocking off then top-ranked Kansas State 52-24 in winning 5 of their last 6 games. The Wofford Terriers come off a 9-4 year in which they lost to South Carolina 24-7. They are ranked 8th in the preseason FCS. Wofford is in transition to the FBS.

Eastern Illinois at San Diego State
Our call: 51-7 for the Aztecs
The Aztecs were 9-4 last year including a 23-6 loss to BYU in the Poinsettia Bowl. The Panthers were 7-5 with a 52-21 loss to Western Michigan.  

Northern Iowa at Iowa State
Our call: 35-21 for the Cyclones
The Panthers were 5-6 with strong games but losses versus Wisconsin 26-21 and Iowa 27-16. The Cyclones were 6-7 with a 31-17 loss to Tulsa in the AutoZone Liberty Bowl after beating Tulsa in the regular season.

Wyoming at Nebraska
The Huskers are favored by 28 points.
Our call: 52-7 for the Cornhuskers
Sports Illustrated leaves the Big Red out of their preseason Top 25, which could be a great mistake. As a Husker alum, we are of course biased for the Cornhuskers, but we can't see Nebraska losing more than two games during the regular season, and they have a good chance to go undefeated if the running game lives up to its potential and the defense plays decently. 

UTSA at New Mexico
The Lobos are favored by 3 points.
Our call: 27-24 for the Roadrunners
The Roadrunners were 8-4 last year under head coach Larry Coker. New Mexico thrived last year by running the ball and was ranked 5th nationally in rushing offense but UTSA ranked 20th nationally in rushing defense. UTSA has the better passing attack.

Georgia at Clemson
The Dogs are favored by 1.5 points.
Our call: 28-21 for Georgia
"Game Day" at ESPN. Both quarterbacks, Tajh Boyd and Aaron Murray, are counted to the ranks of Heisman Trophy contenders. Who will prevail here? The 25-24 win by Clemson over LSU in the Chick-fil-A Bowl was a shocker to this observer, given the Tigers losses to Florida State and South Carolina in the regular season. Georgia, on the other hand, was a few yards away from beating Alabama.

New Mexico State at Texas
The Longhorns are favored by 42 points.
Our call: 46-7 for Texas 
The weak Texas defense held the Longhorns to a 9-4 record last year.

LSU vs. TCU
The Tigers are favored by 4 points.
Our call: 28-21 for LSU.
The Horned Frogs will be improved over last year's 7-6 record, but probably not enough to beat the Tigers.

Nevada at UCLA
The Bruins are favored by 20 points.
Our call: 40-24 for UCLA 
Chris Ault, founder of  the "pistol offense", retired as head coach of the Wolf Pack. The new head coach is Brian Polian. At UCLA, Jim Mora last year brought in a high-tempo style of play and led the Bruins to a 9-5 record, which could improve this year if the defense improves.

Boise State at Washington
The Huskies are favored by 3 points.
Our call:  27-24 for the Broncos
The Broncos had a "down" 11-2 year last season while the Huskies were 7-6.

Northwestern at California
The Wildcats are favored by 6.5 points.
Our call: 31-27 for Northwestern  
Offensive guru Sonny Dykes did such a good job as head coach of the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs that he has been pegged as the new head coach at Cal this season, where the Golden Bears were 3-9 last year. The Wildcats had a very strong 10-3 year, losing to Nebraska by 1, to Penn State by 11, and to Michigan by 7 in overtime, beating Mississippi State 34-20 in the Taxslayer.com Gator Bowl. Cal nearly beat Ohio State, had an impressive win over UCLA, and then faded into oblivion last year with five straight losses. How they will play this year is anyone's guess.

Sunday, September 1, 2013

Ohio at Louisville
The Cardinals are favored by 21 points.
Our call: 30-17 for Louisville.
The Cardinals were 11-2 last season, proving they were for real by knocking off Florida 33-23 in the AllState Sugar Bowl. Ohio started out with a win over Penn State, but was 9-4, fading at regular season end with three straight losses, rebounding to beat LA-Monroe 45-14 in the Independence Bowl.

Colorado vs. Colorado State
The Rams are favored by 2.5 points.
Our call: 31-30 for the Buffaloes. 
Mike MacIntyre moved to Colorado from San Jose State after turning a 1-12 program into a 11-2 winner last year, with losses to Stanford and Utah State. The Buffaloes have a program "in a big hurry" this season and we think they could win this game with a new up-tempo offense concentrated on scoring.

Monday, September 2, 2013

Florida State at Pittsburgh
The Seminoles are favored by 10 points.
Our call: 30-23 for the Seminoles.
The Panthers opened their season last year with a loss to FCS Youngstown State but later lost to Notre Dame only in overtime, then beat Rutgers, only to lose to Ole Miss in the Compass Bowl. Florida State went 11-2 against mostly weak competition, but beat Clemson, and then lost to NC State and Florida, beating Northern Illinois 31-10 in the Discover Orange Bowl.



 

Male Sex Chromosome Study Indicates All Men's Common Ancestor Lived ca. 135,000 Years Ago and Women's DNA Gives Similar Date for the Ladies

Live Science reports on the story in Genetic 'Adam' and 'Eve' Uncovered.

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