Friday, September 03, 2010

YPPSYS College Football Prediction Results - Week 1, 2010 Season

A college football game between Texas Tech and...Image via WikipediaYPPSYS College Football Prediction Results - Week 1, 2010 Season
(to be continued in future postings in coming days as more scores come in)

We made our calls for Week 1 of the college football season in Division I-A (FBS) in a previous posting, together with our analysis of each game.

These are now the scoreboard results:

Presbyterian at Wake Forest
YPPSYS called it: 52-0 for Wake Forest.
RESULT: 53-13 for Wake Forest.
We are 1-0 in calling the winner and 0-0 against the spread.

The score is about what we expected, but it is a positive sign for Presbyterian that they scored 13 points at all. Wake Forest put 415 yards rushing on the board, as first-time QB starter Ted Stachitas accounted for 160 total yards.

We might note here that at Yahoo Sports has changed its Box Score format and the new format is just terrible, providing individual results only and no team totals. CNN Sports Illustrated has an equally dismal box score format. Are these stat formats designed by people who have ANY conception about football?? ESPN now has the better box score because it has what it calls the "Team Stat Comparison" and provides team totals. However, their yards per pass stat is wrong, not giving yards per play per pass attempt but yards per play per completion. That is idiotic. A team which completes 1 pass of 20 attempts for 30 yards would have a yards per pass stat there then of 30.0. Absurdity. What is also lacking there is a stat for yards per play on total offense, a critical statistic in our book, but usually found only at each team's individual website, if at all. Thankfully, Cfbstats. com has the yards per play stat for Division I-A teams on a cumulative basis, but it always takes time until they get the data online.

Hampton at Central Michigan.
YPPSYS called it: 54-7 for Central Michigan.
RESULT: 33-0 for Central Michigan.
We are 2-0 in calling the winner and 0-0 against the spread.
A shutout for for the Chippewa defense but the offense is weaker this year.

SE Missouri State at Ball State.

YPPSYS called it: 42-3 for Ball State.
RESULT: 27-10 for Ball State.
We are 3-0 in calling the winner and 0-0 against the spread.
It is a win for the Redhawks but Ball State was merely tied 7-7 at halftime.

Murray State at Kent State.
YPPSYS called it: 49-7 for Kent State.
RESULT: 41-10 for Kent State. We are 4-0 in calling the winner and 0-0 against the spread. The Golden Flashes led only 24-10 at halftime but held Murray State scoreless in the second half. A disappointing result for Kent State.

Rhode Island at Buffalo.
YPPSYS called it: 48-10 for Buffalo.
RESULT: 31-0 for Buffalo.
We are 5-0 in calling the winner and 0-0 against the spread.
The Bulls led 24-0 at the half but sputtered thereafter as the offense still needs a lot of work.

Towson at Indiana.

YPPSYS called it: 42-14 for Indiana.
RESULT: 51-17 for Indiana.
We are 6-0 in calling the winner and 0-0 against the spread.
Nevertheless, the Hoosiers made 360 yards total offense as opposed to Towson's 392. Such stats indicate a long season ahead for Indiana when they meet stiffer competition.

Minnesota at Middle Tennessee State (favored by 5.5 points).
YPPSYS called it: 24-23 for Minnesota.
RESULT: 24-17 for the Golden Gophers.
We are 7-0 in calling the winner and 1-0 against the spread.
Minnesota rallied for the win with 10 unanswered points in the fourth quarter in a deserved victory in which they had 45:34 minutes of possession and outgained the Blue Raiders 431 to 318 total yards. That the Blue Raiders gained so many yards in such little time points to defensive weaknesses at Minnesota.

Norfolk State at Rutgers.
YPPSYS called it: 44-7 for Rutgers.
RESULT: 31-0 for the Scarlet Knights.
We are 8-0 in calling the winner and 1-0 against the spread.
It was a slow start for Rutgers who managed only two field goals in the first half, so that the Rutgers offense needs work, as the defense was stalwart.

Southern Miss at South Carolina (favored by 13.5 points).
YPPSYS called it:  21-9 for the Gamecocks.
RESULT: 41-13 for South Carolina.
We are 9-0 in calling the winner and 1-1 against the spread.
The Gamecocks had only a 449 to 404 total yards advantage, so that the margin of victory is misleading.

Florida A&M at Miami of Florida.
YPPSYS called it: 51-13 for Miami.
RESULT: 45-0 for the Hurricanes.
We are 10-0 in calling the winner and 1-1 against the spread.
Miami led 35-0 at the half, suggesting that this team is better than last year's.

Marshall at Ohio State (favored by 29.5 points).
YPPSYS called it: 34-7 for the Buckeyes.
RESULT: 45-7 for the Buckeyes.
We are 11-0 in calling the winner and 1-2 against the spread.
The offense put up 529 yards and the defense held the Thundering Herd to 199 total yards, whose only score came on a blocked field goal return for 61 yards. This win shows that Ohio State is very strong this year.

Florida Atlantic at UAB (favored by 14 points).
YPPSYS calls it: 33-17 for UAB.
RESULT: 32-31 for the Owls.
We are 11-1 in calling the winner and 1-3 against the spread.
UAB was often the more dominant team, outgaining the Owls 424 to 347 total yards, but managed to squander away a 28-12 lead in the 3rd quarter as a 38-yard pass interception for a score was the turning point in the game. Since UAB put up 345 yards rushing, one has to ask what they were doing passing while leading 28-12?? Outcoached for the loss.

Northern Illinois at Iowa State (favored by 3.5 points).
YPPSYS called it: 23-16 for Iowa State.
RESULT: 27-10 for the Cyclones.
We are 12-1 in calling the winner and 2-3 against the spread.
Iowa State intercepted 3 passes and outgained the Huskies 403 to 249 yards to win a game in which they started fast, leading 17-0 at halftime, but they struggled a bit in the second half.

SE Louisiana at Tulane.
YPPSYS called it: 27-26 for Tulane.
RESULT: 27-21 for the Green Wave.
We are 13-1 in calling the winner and 2-3 against the spread.
Tulane held on for the win as they were outgained 266 to 252 total yards.

Pittsburgh at Utah (favored by 2.5 points).
YPPSYS called it: 24-21 for Utah.
RESULT: 27-24 for the Utes in overtime.
We are 14-1 in calling the winner and 3-3 against the spread.
Utah deserved to win in overtime, gaining 405 total yards to only 266 for the Panthers.

North Dakota at Idaho.
YPPSYS called it: 30-24 for Idaho.
RESULT: 45-0 for the Vandals.
We are 15-1 in calling the winner and 3-3 against the spread.
As we noted in making our predictions for this week, last year Idaho was the most improved team in FBS according to our YPPSYS stats, but this 45-0 blowout win over the Fighting Sioux is a surprise even to us, as the Vandals put up 547 yards total offense and took advantage of 5 North Dakota turnovers.

Eastern Washington at Nevada.
YPPSYS called it: 43-21 for Nevada.
RESULT: 49-24 for the Wolf Pack.
We are 16-1 in calling the winner and 3-3 against the spread.
The Nevada offense rolled to 553 yards but also gave up 432 yards as its defense continues to be its Achilles heel, a weakness which will lead to losses against teams with decent offenses and better defenses.

USC (favored by 21 points) at Hawaii.
YPPSYS called it: 42-20 for USC.
RESULT: 49-36 for the Trojans.
We are 17-1 in calling the winner and 3-4 against the spread.
USC gave up 588 yards total offense to the Warriors and gained only 524 yards themselves so that this was almost a Pyrrhic victory, with USC on the right side of the score, but exposing a leaky pass defense that will make the Trojans quite vulnerable. Stanford comes to mind here.
We called all 17 of 18 winners for the first day (we originally thought we had called all 18 winners, but forgot that Florida Atlantic upset UAB). That successful prognostication results primarily from the fact that so many games were lopsided contests in which the winner was clear from the onset. We do not, however, like being behind on the spread at this early stage.

Continued in further postings this weekend as the game results come in.

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