Thursday, December 17, 2009

Poinsettia Bowl : Utah vs. California : YPPSYS NCAA FBS College Football Bowl Game Predictions 2009 / 2010 Season

This college football bowl season we are publishing our game predictions to LawPundit game by game. These postings are traditionally among our most popular posts and utilize our unique YPPSYS system - based on yards per play advantage and schedule difficulty, this year combined with a schedule-adjusted margin of victory variable.

We make no warranties as to the truth or accuracy of our information. As always, we do this in good fun only - do not rely on our predictions for anything - and we disclaim any and all liability for any reliance upon our prognostications. Football is sport. May the best team win.


December 23, 2009, Wednesday

5. Poinsettia Bowl, San Diego, CA, Utah vs. California, 8:00 pm

Utah has the nation's longest intact bowl winning streak at 8 games and its current head coach, Kyle Whittingham is 4-0. During the season, the Utes played 3 teams currently ranked in the top 15 and lost to them all (TCU, Oregon and BYU). Utah lost to Oregon by only 7, 31-24, in a game fairly even on stats, and had better stats than BYU in its season-ending loss 26-23, in overtime. Utah was soundly beaten only by TCU, and the Horned Frogs are simply the better team this year.

Cal is 5-1 in bowl games under head coach Jeff Tedford, who has done a lot for Cal football but whose teams seldom play consistently well throughout one full season. Although Cal this year beat ranked Arizona and Stanford, Cal also lost to ranked Oregon and USC and to unranked Oregon State and Washington, ignominiously losing in their final regular season game 42-10 to a Huskies team it beat last year 48-7. The Cal loss was a tremendous finish for first year head coach Steve Sarkisian, as Washington went 5-7 this year as compared to 0-12 the past season, but it once again brought to light the Golden Bears inconsistent play under Tedford tutelage. Injured tailback Jahvid Best will not play in the bowl game - according to this report.

Our call: YPPSYS ranks Utah 26th with a rating of -0.2 and California 38th with a rating of -0.7, so that the .5 rating difference x 9 means 4.5 points on the scoreboard in favor of Utah. The schedule adjusted margin of victory gives Utah a rating of 5.3 and Cal a rating of 2.1, i.e. a field goal advantage to the Utes. The opening line had Cal as 2.5 point favorites and that is now up to 4 points. Even if we give Cal a bit of a home field advantage because this game is in California, we still call it 31-30 for Utah.

NCAA FBS College Football Bowl Game Predictions 2009 / 2010 utilize YPPSYS ratings and rankings (yards per play advantage - offense and defense, won-loss record, schedule of difficulty according to Massey Ratings) and YPPSYS II for the top 40 teams (YPPSYS II = YPPSYS I supplemented by MOV, margin of victory plus the schedule difficulty recalculated based on YPPSYS ratings).

YPPSYS COLLEGE FOOTBALL RATINGS AND RANKINGS - NCAA DIVISION I-A (FBS) are based on net yards per play advantage (NAYPPA), strength of schedule, defense and adjustment for losses through December 5, 2009, after Week 14 of regular season games.

NAYPPA = net yards per play advantage (YPP OFF minus YPP DEF)
YPP OFF = net yards per play gained on offense
YPP DEF = net yards per play allowed on defense
Schedule = Schedule difficulty thus far in the season according to Massey Ratings
(SchP=Schedule Partial)
YPP Team Statistics are based on data found at
cfbstats.com
Odds are taken from Todd Beck's College Football Prediction Tracker
as of Wednesday, December 16, 2009 9:42:07 AM

The prognostications cover numerous bowl games and great match-ups. Few games can be said to be mis-matched and ultimate winners are in doubt in many.

Las Vegas Bowl : BYU vs. Oregon State : YPPSYS NCAA FBS College Football Bowl Game Predictions 2009 / 2010 Season

We make no warranties as to the truth or accuracy of our information. As always, we do this in good fun only - do not rely on our predictions for anything - and we disclaim any and all liability for any reliance upon our prognostications. Football is sport. May the best team win.

December 22, 2009, Tuesday

4. Las Vegas Bowl, BYU vs. Oregon State, 8:00 pm

In spite of a season opening 14-13 upset win over the Oklahoma Sooners, the BYU early season 3rd game 54-28 blowout loss to Florida State did not help raise the status of the Mountain West Conference, although the game stats were nearly even, as each team punted only once and gained ca. 500 yards total offense, with the Cougars actually gaining more yards per play (8.9 ypp) than the Seminoles (6.6 ypp), but BYU turned the ball over 5 times. The 31-7 loss to TCU was in fact much more devastating in terms of domination. Doubt-provoking was also a late season 24-19 squeaker over then winless New Mexico.

Oregon State fields a very strong team who's worst loss of the season was to unbeaten Cincinnati 28-18 early in the season, with close losses to Arizona, USC and Oregon, as the Beavers came within a gnawed log of going to the Rose Bowl, losing the "Civil War for the Roses" to Oregon 37-33, rightfully so in our opinion, as the Ducks are surely the better representative, with a lone conference loss to Stanford and one out of conference loss to Boise State.

Our call: The betting line favors Oregon State by 2.5 points. YPPSYS ranks BYU 15th (rating .02) and Oregon State 33rd (rating -0.6) which gives Brigham Young University a 0.8 rating advantage and 0.8 x 9 = 7.2 points on the scoreboard. YPPSYS II gives BYU an 8.6 MOV schedule-adjusted rating as compared to 5.4 for the Beavers, or a one field goal advantage for the Cougars. Both YPPSYS calculations thus favor BYU. We call it 37-34 for BYU.

NCAA FBS College Football Bowl Game Predictions 2009 / 2010 utilize YPPSYS ratings and rankings (yards per play advantage - offense and defense, won-loss record, schedule of difficulty according to Massey Ratings) and YPPSYS II for the top 40 teams (YPPSYS II = YPPSYS I supplemented by MOV, margin of victory plus the schedule difficulty recalculated based on YPPSYS ratings).

YPPSYS COLLEGE FOOTBALL RATINGS AND RANKINGS - NCAA DIVISION I-A (FBS) are based on net yards per play advantage (NAYPPA), strength of schedule, defense and adjustment for losses through December 5, 2009, after Week 14 of regular season games.

NAYPPA = net yards per play advantage (YPP OFF minus YPP DEF)
YPP OFF = net yards per play gained on offense
YPP DEF = net yards per play allowed on defense
Schedule = Schedule difficulty thus far in the season according to Massey Ratings
(SchP=Schedule Partial)
YPP Team Statistics are based on data found at
cfbstats.com
Odds are taken from Todd Beck's College Football Prediction Tracker
as of Wednesday, December 16, 2009 9:42:07 AM

The prognostications cover numerous bowl games and great match-ups. Few games can be said to be mis-matched and ultimate winners are in doubt in many.

Little Caesars Pizza Bowl : Marshall vs. Ohio : YPPSYS NCAA FBS College Football Bowl Game Predictions 2009 / 2010 Season

We make no warranties as to the truth or accuracy of our information. As always, we do this in good fun only - do not rely on our predictions for anything - and we disclaim any and all liability for any reliance upon our prognostications. Football is sport. May the best team win.

December 26, 2009, Saturday

7. Little Caesars Pizza Bowl, Detroit, Michigan, Marshall vs. Ohio, 1:00 pm

Marshall head coach Mark Snyder (22-37 over five years) resigned November 29 after Marshall's 52-21 blowout loss to UTEP. Marshall ended the season 6-6, with no signature wins. Snyder will be replaced next year by West Virginia assistant coach John "Doc" Holliday, who has received a 5-year contract. Rick Minter, the current defensive coordinator, is to coach the bowl game. This makes the bowl game outcome more unpredictable. Moreover, the previously injured 1,000-yard-tailback Darius Marshall will reportedly be ready to play, together with several formerly injured starters in the offensive line. Marshall has won 10 of the last 12 games between the two teams.

Ohio reached the Mid-American Conference title game, losing to Central Michigan 20-10 to finish out an excellent 9-4 regular season, in which they played e.g. SEC Tennessee nearly even in a 24-23 loss.
Both teams have comparably strong offenses but the Bobcats have the better defense, averaging one yard per play less.

Our call: The opening line was 4 points in favor of Ohio but that has dropped to 1.5 points at the time of this writing. YPPSYS ranks Ohio 47th with a rating of -1.4 and Marshall 90th with a rating of -2.7, which would make Ohio the favorite by 1.3 x 9 = 11.7 points. Ohio has a MOV of 4.1 and Marshall -3.1 for a difference of 7.2 points. However, YPPSYS II puts the Bobcat schedule at a rank of 84 (rating -2.5) compared to the Thundering Herd schedule rank of 79.5 (rating -1.9), for a difference of .6 x 9 = 5.4 points, which makes Ohio a thin 1.8 point favorite. We call it for the Bobcats 23-20.

NCAA FBS College Football Bowl Game Predictions 2009 / 2010 utilize YPPSYS ratings and rankings (yards per play advantage - offense and defense, won-loss record, schedule of difficulty according to Massey Ratings) and YPPSYS II for the top 40 teams (YPPSYS II = YPPSYS I supplemented by MOV, margin of victory plus the schedule difficulty recalculated based on YPPSYS ratings).

YPPSYS COLLEGE FOOTBALL RATINGS AND RANKINGS - NCAA DIVISION I-A (FBS) are based on net yards per play advantage (NAYPPA), strength of schedule, defense and adjustment for losses through December 5, 2009, after Week 14 of regular season games.

NAYPPA = net yards per play advantage (YPP OFF minus YPP DEF)
YPP OFF = net yards per play gained on offense
YPP DEF = net yards per play allowed on defense
Schedule = Schedule difficulty thus far in the season according to Massey Ratings
(SchP=Schedule Partial)
YPP Team Statistics are based on data found at
cfbstats.com
Odds are taken from Todd Beck's College Football Prediction Tracker
as of Wednesday, December 16, 2009 9:42:07 AM

The prognostications cover numerous bowl games and great match-ups. Few games can be said to be mis-matched and ultimate winners are in doubt in many.

New Orleans Bowl : Southern Miss vs. Middle Tennessee : YPPSYS NCAA FBS College Football Bowl Game Predictions 2009 / 2010 Season

This college football bowl season we are publishing our game predictions to LawPundit game by game. These postings are traditionally among our most popular posts and utilize our unique YPPSYS system - based on yards per play advantage and schedule difficulty, this year combined with a schedule-adjusted margin of victory variable.

We make no warranties as to the truth or accuracy of our information. As always, we do this in good fun only - do not rely on our predictions for anything - and we disclaim any and all liability for any reliance upon our prognostications. Football is sport. May the best team win.


December 20, 2009, Sunday

3. New Orleans Bowl, Southern Miss vs. Middle Tennessee, 8:30 pm

YPPSYS I ranks Middle Tennessee 42nd (rated -0.8) and Southern Miss 46th (rated -1.4), so that the ratings favor the Blue Raiders by .6 x 9 = 5.4 points. Middle Tennessee had a MOV of 8.2 as compared to the Golden Eagles 8.5, or a .3 advantage for Southern Miss, lessened by .1 through ease of schedule difficulty, so that YPPSYS II would give the Golden Eagles a razor thin .2 point advantage. The opening line favored Southern Miss by 6 points and now stands at 3.5 points.

Our call: The Golden Eagles bring a leaky pass defense into the game against a capable pass-and-run QB in Dwight Dasher, who may prove to be the difference in the football game. We call it for Middle Tennessee 27-26.

NCAA FBS College Football Bowl Game Predictions 2009 / 2010 utilize YPPSYS ratings and rankings (yards per play advantage - offense and defense, won-loss record, schedule of difficulty according to Massey Ratings) and YPPSYS II for the top 40 teams (YPPSYS II = YPPSYS I supplemented by MOV, margin of victory plus the schedule difficulty recalculated based on YPPSYS ratings).

YPPSYS COLLEGE FOOTBALL RATINGS AND RANKINGS - NCAA DIVISION I-A (FBS) are based on net yards per play advantage (NAYPPA), strength of schedule, defense and adjustment for losses through December 5, 2009, after Week 14 of regular season games.

NAYPPA = net yards per play advantage (YPP OFF minus YPP DEF)
YPP OFF = net yards per play gained on offense
YPP DEF = net yards per play allowed on defense
Schedule = Schedule difficulty thus far in the season according to Massey Ratings
(SchP=Schedule Partial)
YPP Team Statistics are based on data found at
cfbstats.com
Odds are taken from Todd Beck's College Football Prediction Tracker
as of Wednesday, December 16, 2009 9:42:07 AM

The prognostications cover numerous bowl games and great match-ups. Few games can be said to be mis-matched and ultimate winners are in doubt in many.

St. Petersburg Bowl, Rutgers vs. UCF : YPPSYS NCAA FBS College Football Bowl Game Predictions 2009 / 2010 Season

This college football bowl season we are publishing our game predictions to LawPundit game by game. These postings are traditionally among our most popular posts and utilize our unique YPPSYS system - based on yards per play advantage and schedule difficulty, this year combined with a schedule-adjusted margin of victory variable.

We make no warranties as to the truth or accuracy of our information. As always, we do this in good fun only - do not rely on our predictions for anything - and we disclaim any and all liability for any reliance upon our prognostications. Football is sport. May the best team win.


December 19, 2009, Saturday


2. St. Petersburg Bowl, Rutgers vs. UCF, St. Petersburg, FL, 8:00 pm

Scarlet Knights vs. Knights - a rare football joust between teams rated 49th and 52nd by YPPSYS, giving Rutgers a .1 x x 9 = .9 points advantage. The Scarlet Knights averaged a MOV of 10.1 to 5.6 for UCF for a MOV favoring Rutgers by 4.5, but the adjustment for YPPSYS schedule difficulty is -.6 rating points x 9 = 5.4 giving the advantage to UCF by .9 points, so that the YPPSYS II rating exactly offsets the YPPSYS I rating, which makes this game dead even on paper.

UCF has the stouter running defense and the weaker passing defense (112th nationally). The heralded offensive line at Rutgers has not lived up to expectations this year and Rutgers is not likely to run the ball well against UCF.

As for the passing game, the Scarlet Knights' freshman QB Tom Savage has a very low quarterback rating of 82.5 and is facing a strong pass rush. If Case Keenum and Houston could not beat UCF, then Rutgers will be hard pressed to do so.

Our call: Rutgers opened as a 4-point favorite and the line is now 3 points.
We call this game 21-20 for UCF, thinking that playing in Florida will give them nearly a home field advantage.

NCAA FBS College Football Bowl Game Predictions 2009 / 2010 utilize YPPSYS ratings and rankings (yards per play advantage - offense and defense, won-loss record, schedule of difficulty according to Massey Ratings) and YPPSYS II for the top 40 teams (YPPSYS II = YPPSYS I supplemented by MOV, margin of victory plus the schedule difficulty recalculated based on YPPSYS ratings).

YPPSYS COLLEGE FOOTBALL RATINGS AND RANKINGS - NCAA DIVISION I-A (FBS) are based on net yards per play advantage (NAYPPA), strength of schedule, defense and adjustment for losses through December 5, 2009, after Week 14 of regular season games.

NAYPPA = net yards per play advantage (YPP OFF minus YPP DEF)
YPP OFF = net yards per play gained on offense
YPP DEF = net yards per play allowed on defense
Schedule = Schedule difficulty thus far in the season according to Massey Ratings
(SchP=Schedule Partial)
YPP Team Statistics are based on data found at
cfbstats.com
Odds are taken from Todd Beck's College Football Prediction Tracker
as of Wednesday, December 16, 2009 9:42:07 AM

The prognostications cover numerous bowl games and great match-ups. Few games can be said to be mis-matched and ultimate winners are in doubt in many.

YPPSYS NCAA FBS College Football Bowl Game Predictions 2009 / 2010 Season : New Mexico Bowl : Fresno State vs. Wyoming

This college football bowl season we are publishing our game predictions to LawPundit game by game. These postings are traditionally among our most popular posts and utilize our unique YPPSYS system - based on yards per play advantage and schedule difficulty, this year combined with a schedule-adjusted margin of victory variable.

We make no warranties as to the truth or accuracy of our information. As always, we do this in good fun only - do not rely on our predictions for anything - and we disclaim any and all liability for any reliance upon our prognostications. Football is sport. May the best team win.


December 19, 2009, Saturday


1. New Mexico Bowl, Albuquerque, NM, Fresno State vs. Wyoming, 4:30 pm (read preview from The Sportmeisters at BleacherReport.com) and this article about Wyoming at Rivals.com.)

At YPPSYS, the Bulldogs (YPPSYS rating -1.9) rank 66th and the Cowboys (YPPSYS rating -3.1) rank 99th, which makes Fresno State the favorite by 10.8 points (-3.1 - -1.9 = 1.2 x 9 = 10.8 points. The opening line favored the Bulldogs by 13, but the current line is 11 points, virtually the same as our own stats.
Wyoming scored 10.4 points less than opponents due to a weak offense this season, a surprising result when one considers the credentials of first year head coach Dave Christensen, who did great things as offensive coordinator the previous season at Missouri. Pat Hill is a successful if also controversial head coach in Fresno who was expected to bring Fresno State into the top national rankings, but this has not happened.
Our call: Wyoming will struggle with the Fresno State running attack so it is a question of how much offense they can sustain themselves. We call it for Fresno State 44-34.

NCAA FBS College Football Bowl Game Predictions 2009 / 2010 utilize YPPSYS ratings and rankings (yards per play advantage - offense and defense, won-loss record, schedule of difficulty according to Massey Ratings) and YPPSYS II for the top 40 teams (YPPSYS II = YPPSYS I supplemented by MOV, margin of victory plus the schedule difficulty recalculated based on YPPSYS ratings).

YPPSYS COLLEGE FOOTBALL RATINGS AND RANKINGS - NCAA DIVISION I-A (FBS) are based on net yards per play advantage (NAYPPA), strength of schedule, defense and adjustment for losses through December 5, 2009, after Week 14 of regular season games.

NAYPPA = net yards per play advantage (YPP OFF minus YPP DEF)
YPP OFF = net yards per play gained on offense
YPP DEF = net yards per play allowed on defense
Schedule = Schedule difficulty thus far in the season according to Massey Ratings
(SchP=Schedule Partial)
YPP Team Statistics are based on data found at
cfbstats.com
Odds are taken from Todd Beck's College Football Prediction Tracker
as of Wednesday, December 16, 2009 9:42:07 AM

The prognostications cover numerous bowl games and great match-ups. Few games can be said to be mis-matched and ultimate winners are in doubt in many.

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