Wednesday, October 14, 2009

Symposium on National Security & Human Rights, National Press Club, Washington D.C., October 15, host ACS, American Constitution Soc. for Law & Policy

If you are in the Washington D.C. area October 15, 2009, there is a half-day symposium on national security and human rights starting at 1:00 p.m. (13 o'clock) at the National Press Club. Here is the e-mail announcement that we received:

Co-Chair of FDD's Center for Law and Counterterrorism David Rivkin to participate in ACS Symposium October 15 at the National Press Club
Washington, D.C. (October 14, 2009) - The American Constitution Society for Law and Policy (ACS) will host a half-day symposium on national security and human rights issues. The symposium will include two panel discussions with a diverse array of experts and a keynote address by Assistant Attorney General David Kris. The Foundation for Defense of Democracies David Rivkin will participate in the second panel (1-2:30 pm) discussing the issue of the State Secrets Privilege.

Afternoon Panel: “The State Secrets Privilege: A Case for Reform?”

Panelists
:
  • Moderator, David Cole, Professor of Law, Georgetown University Law Center;
  • Amanda Frost, Associate Professor of Law, American University Washington College of Law;
  • David Rivkin, Co-Chair FDD’s Center for Law and Counterterrorism, and Partner, Baker and Hostetler LLP;
  • Vincent Warren, Executive Director, Center for Constitutional Rights; and
  • Ben Wizner, Staff Attorney, ACLU National Security Program.
When: Thursday, October 15, 1:00pm – 2:30pm

Where: The National Press Club, Holeman Lounge
529 14th Street, NW, 13th Floor
Washington, DC 20005

RSVP: The event is free for registered media. Please RSVP to press@ACSLaw.org

For more information on the Foundation for Defense of Democracies' Center for Law and Counterterrorism please visit www.defenddemocracy.org

For more information about this event, contact Judy Mayka at (202) 207-3698 or Judy@DefendDemocracy.org.
###
The Foundation for Defense of Democracies is a non-profit, non-partisan policy institute dedicated exclusively to promoting pluralism, defending democratic values, and fighting the ideologies that drive terrorism. Founded shortly after the attacks of 9/11, FDD combines policy research, democracy and counterterrorism education, strategic communications, and investigative journalism in support of its mission. For more information, please visit www.defenddemocracy.org.
Co-chair of FDD’s Center for Law and Counterterrorism David Rivkin to participate in ACS Symposium October 15 at the National Press Club

College Football Game Predictions - Week 7 2009 Season

College Football Game Predictions - Week 7 2009 Season

Odds used here were posted according to the odds posted at the College Football Prediction Tracker, Tuesday, October 13, 2009, 10:25 AM.

Predictions are based on YPPSYS calculations for the 2009 season which in turn are based primarily on 1) NAYPPA net average yards per play advantage as calculated from stats available at cfbstats.com and 2) strength of schedule ratings according to the Massey Ratings. However, we tweak our stats in some cases and this week we are treating the home field advantage differently, since a ca. 2.66-point home field advantage at Massey Ratings appears to make a bigger point difference in the actual spread. Massey has the average score this season for 2038 football games at 35.00 points for the winner and 15.69 pints for the loser. When we look at all games, regardless of who won or lost, the home team score was 27.63 on average and the visiting team had 23.18 on average, so that the actual point spread there is 4.45 points.

We make no warranties as to the truth or accuracy of our information. As always, we do this in good fun only - do not rely on our predictions for anything - and we disclaim any and all liability for any reliance upon our prognostications. Football is sport. May the best team win.


Going into this week, we are 236-93 in picking the winner, including a number of games that had no line, and we are 138-143-2 thus far against the spread. Obviously, anything below 50% is disappointing.

Here are our predictions for the 7th Week, which has some great games on tap:

Tuesday, October 13, 2009

Arkansas State was the favorite in the opening line over Louisiana Monroe (LA Monroe, ULM) by 1 point but at the time of our prediction, the Red Wolves were underdogs to Warhawks by 2 points. Our Call: LA Monroe 31-20.

Wednesday, October 14, 2009

Boise State is the favorite at Tulsa by 9.5 points. Our Call: Our own stats pretty much match the betting line. We call it for the Broncos over the Golden Hurricane, 34-24.

Thursday, October 15, 2009

The opening line favored South Florida by 2. Cincinnati is now the favorite at South Florida by 3 points. Our Call: The Bearcats over the Bulls 34-28.

Friday, October 16, 2009

Pittsburgh is the favorite at Rutgers by 3 points. Our Call: 31-24 for the Panthers.

Saturday, October 17, 2009

Bowling Green is the favorite at Ball State by 3 points. Our Call: 28-20 for the Falcons.

Louisville is the underdog at Connecticut by 10 points. Our Call: The opening line here was 13.5 in favor of the Huskies. We call the game for UConn 30-17.

Oklahoma is the underdog at Texas by 3.5 points. Our Call: The opening line favored the Longhorns by 1 point. YPPSYS stats favor Texas by 10 points, including the home field advantage, although a healthy Bradford could change things, so that this game is probably a tossup and upsets in games like this are always a danger. Nevertheless, we stick with our stats and call it for the Longhorns 37-27.

Ohio State is the favorite at Purdue by 12.5 points after an opening line of 14.5 points. Our Call: Our stats favor the Buckeyes by 10 points, 30-20.

Iowa is the underdog at Wisconsin by 3 points. Our Call: The opening line favored Iowa by 1 point. YPPSYS favors the Hawkeyes by 2 points, 30-28.

Wake Forest is the underdog at Clemson by 6 points. Our Call: Our stats make this game a toss-up. Clemson has the stronger defense but the weaker offense. We call it 24-23 for Wake Forest.

Georgia is the favorite at Vanderbilt by 8.5 points. Our Call: YPPSYS favors Georgia by a mere 1 point because of its inept offense and the excellent Vandy defense, 22-21.

Mississippi State is the favorite at Middle Tennessee State by 3.5 points. Our Call: YPPSYS ranks these two teams even, so that we go with the home team Blue Raiders 27-23.

Army is the underdog at Temple by 8.5 points. Our Call: YPPSYS favors Temple by two touchdowns, 31-17.

South Carolina is the underdog at Alabama by 17.5 points. Our Call: YPPSYS favors the Crimson Tide by 3 TDs, 31-10.

Wyoming is the underdog at Air Force by 11 points. Our Call: Our stats favor the Falcons by 2 touchdowns, 31-17.

Miami of Ohio is the underdog at Ohio by 13.5 points. Our Call: We favor the Bobcats 34-14.

Nevada is the favorite at Utah State by 9 points. Our Call: YPPSYS favors Nevada 47-37.

Central Michigan is the favorite at Western Michigan by 6.5 points. Our Call: We call it for the Chippewas 34-24.

Akron is the underdog at Buffalo by 10.5 points. Our Call: Our stats favor the Bulls 38-20.

Houston is the favorite at Tulane by 18 points. Our Call: We call it for the Cougars 41-24.

Rice is the underdog at East Carolina by 17.5 points. Our Call: The opening line was 20 points. We call it for the Pirates, 31-13.

Marshall is the underdog at West Virginia by 20 points. Our Call: YPPSYS favors the Mountaineers 41-17.

USC is the favorite at Notre Dame by 10 points. The opening line was 11.5 points. Our Call: The Notre Dame offense is exceptional at 6.9 yards per play while the defense is terrible, giving up 6 yards per play to rank it about 100th nationally. As a result, the Fighting Irish, in spite of a super QB in Jimmy Clausen, have as good as no chance to win against Southern Cal, whose top defense will keep the Notre Dame offense in check. We also note that Mitch Mustain has been elevated to backup quarterback. If he sees action, the USC offense could take off. YPPSYS calls it for USC 41-17.

Texas Tech is the underdog at Nebraska by 10 points. The opening line was 5.5 points. Our Call: Our own YPPSYS rankings rank Nebraska an astonishing 5th, but we are not alone. Sagarin at USA Today ranks Nebraska 7th and the Massey Ratings and the College Football News (CFN) at Scout.com rank the Huskers 5th - and their defense is that good - but you have to be worried about this game if you are a Husker fan as the Cornhuskers looked nothing like a top-ranked team against Missouri, trailing 12-0 into the 4th quarter, which is fine for the defense, but miserable for the offense. For Texas Tech, backup QB Steven Sheffield made his debut as the Red Raider starting quarterback against Kansas State, replacing the nation's leading passer, Taylor Potts, who suffered a concussion in the Red Raiders previous game against New Mexico, where Sheffield played a bit more than a half, passing for 238 yards and 3 TDS. Against the Wildcats, in his first college start ever, he completed 33 of 41 passes for 490 yards and 7 touchdowns as Texas Tech blew K-State off the map, 66-14. In the first half, Sheffield threw 5 TDS and passed for 370 yards, a school record - and at pass-happy Texas Tech, that is something. Could it be that the Red Raiders have had their best quarterback sitting on the bench? Whether the Nebraska puff ball offense can score enough points to offset the expectable Red Raiders scoring next week is the big question. If the Huskers are lucky, Potts, a stay-in-the-pocket passer will start, which seems more to the liking of the current Husker defense. Virginia Tech beat the Huskers in the waning minutes of the game due to their scrambling quarterback, and that is what Sheffield is known for, carrying the nickname "Sticks" for his scrambling abilities. According to cfbstats.com, Nebraska ranks 16th nationally in pass defense, allowing 162.6 yards per game, while the Red Raiders rank 2nd in the nation in passing offense, gaining 421.4 yards per game, and Sheffield beat that by nearly 70 yards against K-State. We see Texas Tech scoring about 30 points against the Huskers - they scored 24 against a better Texas Longhorn defense - and we are skeptical that the timid Nebraska offense can score at least one more than that to win. The YPPSYS stats favor the Huskers by about 10 points, but I am concerned about Sheffield. As a Husker alum and fan, we call it 41-30 for Nebraska, but we would not be surprised if the Red Raiders won. The Nebraska secondary is still a question mark and a top quarterback might pick them apart, in which case the unimaginative Nebraska offense probably could not keep up with the scoring. It will be interesting to see how the defense - the Pelini specialty - manages the Red Raiders. Frankly, if Sheffield plays against the Huskers the way he did against K-State, the Huskers can't win.

Minnesota is the underdog at Penn State by 17 points. Our Call: The Gophers are continuously improving, but are not yet a match for the Nittany Lions. We call it 30-14 for Penn State.

California is the favorite at UCLA by 3.5 points. Our Call: We call it for UCLA 17-14.

North Carolina State is the underdog at Boston College by 2.5 points. Our Call: We call it for the Wolfpack 24-23.

Arkansas is the underdog at Florida by 23.5 points. Our Call: Arkansas just had an impressive win over Auburn, but the YPPSYS stats favor the Gators by 31 points 45-14.

New Mexico State is the underdog at Louisiana Tech by 19.5 points. Our Call: YPPSYS favors Louisiana Tech 46-17.

Colorado State is the underdog at TCU by 21 points. Our Call: YPPSYS favors the Horned Frogs 30-14.

Kent State is the favorite by 6.5 points over Eastern Michigan. Our Call: YPPSYS favors Kent State 33-23.

Virginia is the favorite at Maryland by 3.5 points. Our Call: Our stats favor Virginia 20-13.

Hawaii is the underdog at Idaho by 10.5 points. Our Call: YPPSYS calls it 31-27 for Idaho.

BYU is the favorite at San Diego State by 18 points. Our Call: YPPSYS favors BYU 31-17.

Virginia Tech is the favorite at Georgia Tech by 3 points. Our Call: YPPSYS favors the Hokies 31-24.

Louisiana-Lafayette is the favorite at Western Kentucky by 7.5 points. Our Call: We call it for ULL 34-17.

UAB is the underdog at Mississippi by 22 points. Our Call: We call it for Ole Miss 38-14.

Troy is the favorite at Florida International by 9 points. Our Call: Our stats favor Troy 37-20.

Memphis is the underdog at Southern Miss by 14 points. Our Call: The opening line was 10 points. We call it for Southern Miss 40-16.

Illinois is the favorite at Indiana by 3 points. Our Call: We call if for Indiana 27-20.

Texas A&M is the favorite at Kansas State by 4.5 points. Our Call: YPPSYS favors Texas A&M 38-33.

Kansas is the favorite at Colorado by 10 points. Our Call: YPPSYS favors Kansas 41-14.

Baylor is the underdog at Iowa State by 2.5 points. Our Call: Our stats call it in favor of Baylor 31-21.

Miami of Florida is the favorite at UCF by 15.5 points. Our Call: YPPSYS calls it 31-10 for the Hurricanes.

Stanford is the underdog at Arizona by 4 points. The opening line was 6.5 points. Our Call: YPPSYS makes Arizona a 7-point favorite, including the home field advantage. We are reluctant to call the game against our law school alma mater in Palo Alto, but here stick with the stats and call it 31-24 for Arizona.

Kentucky is the underdog at Auburn by 14 points. Our Call: Auburn should bounce back from the Arkansas debacle, and we call it for the Tigers 41-17.

Florida Atlantic is the underdog at North Texas by 1.5 points. Our Call: North Texas is competing this year with Washington and SMU for the title of most improved football team in the country. We call it for the Mean Green 31-17.

Navy is the favorite at SMU by 9 points. Our Call: YPPSYS favors SMU by 1 point, 27-26.

San Jose State is the underdog at Fresno State by 20 points. Our Call: YPPSYS favors Fresno State 48-17.

Utah is the favorite at UNLV by 15.5 points. Our Call: YPPSYS favors Utah 44-7.

Washington is the underdog at Arizona State by 6 points. Our Call: YPPSYS favors Arizona State 24-14.

Northwestern is the underdog at Michigan State by 13 points. Our Call: YPPSYS favors Michigan State 35-13.

Other games:

Northern Illinois is at Toledo but there is no official line, though various prognosticators favor Northern Illinois by about 1 TD. Our Call: Toledo 34-27.

Delaware State at Michigan. No line. Our Call: The Wolverines get a freebie against an FCS team with a 1-3 record and a leaky defense. We call it 61-7 for Michigan.

(FCS, Division I-AA) Southern Illinois (5th ranked) at Northern Iowa (2nd ranked). Our Call: Northern Iowa lost to still unbeaten Iowa 17-16 to open the season as the Hawkeyes were lucky to win, blocking two close field goal attempts in the closing seconds. Southern Illinois lost to FBS Division I-A Marshall to open the season 31-28. The Panthers would seem to have the edge on the Salukis. We call it for Northern Iowa, 41-31.

In an unusual matchup, Number 1-ranked and defending NAIA football champion Sioux Falls S.D. plays NCAA Division I-AA FCS North Dakota on the road at Grand Forks, ND at 1 p.m., October 17. The Cougars this season inter alia have an 80-0 win over Concordia University (Nebraska), a 76-3 win over Dana College, and a 64-0 win over Doane College. Statwise, their average per play is 7.3 yards against 2.7 yards allowed on defense, for a NAYPPA of 4.6. North Dakota has 3 wins and lost two games, one to Texas Tech, 38-13 and the other to the FCS 20th-ranked Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks 65-31, a team that beat Texas College 92-0 this year and also beat McNeese State 16-13. North Dakota is averaging 5.1 yards per play on offense and giving up 6.7 yards on defense, for a negative NAYPPA of -1.6. Sioux Falls is thus 6.2 net yards per play better this year than North Dakota, but that figure has to be adjusted by the relative strength of schedule. The Massey Ratings rank the Sioux Falls (6-0) 223rd in the nation and their schedule thus far this year as the 536th most difficult in the country. They rank North Dakota (3-2) 150th in the nation and their schedule thus far this year as the 144th most difficult in the country. It will be interesting to see how this game progresses in terms of a matching of strengths of two different football worlds. We call it in an upset for Sioux Falls, 24-21.

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